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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Sunday, June 23, 2019 7:17 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
1.5 - California & 2.2 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 6/24 thru Sun 6/30

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Another New Zealand Gale Forms
Southwest Pacific Possibly To Ignite Beyond

BUOY ROUNDUP
On Sunday, June 23, 2019 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/ Buoy 239 (Lanai) Seas were 3.4 ft @ 9.9 secs with swell 2.1 ft @ 9.3 secs from 175 degrees.
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 3.2 ft @ 9.9 secs with swell 2.3 ft @ 9.8 secs from 28 degrees.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.8 ft @ 17.2 secs with swell 1.6 ft @ 16.8 secs from 180 degrees. Wind at the buoy was calm. Water temperature 66.2 degs. At Harvest (Buoy 071) primary swell was 5.6 ft @ 9.7 secs from 310 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.9 ft @ 15.4 secs from 198 degrees. At Camp Pendleton (043) swell was 2.2 ft @ 15.3 secs from 212 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.4 ft @ 15.3 secs from 197 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 9.8 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 7.9 ft @ 9.2 secs from 327 degrees. Wind at the buoy (013) was northwest at 14-18 kts. Water temp 58.8 degs (042) and 55.6 degs (013).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Sunday (6/23) in North and Central CA northwest windswell was producing waves at chest to maybe head high and mushed but not chopped with light wind nearshore. Protected breaks were waist high and clean and weak and somewhat closed out. At Santa Cruz residual Southwest Pacific swell was producing set waves at chest high and clean but a little wonky. In Southern California/Ventura windswell was producing waves at thigh high on the sets and super clean and lined up and weak. In North Orange Co residual Southwest Pacific swell was producing waves at up to head high and lined up but pretty heavily textured. South Orange Country's best summertime breaks were head high on the sets and and clean and lined up but soft. North San Diego had surf at waist to chest high on the sets and lined up and somewhat closed out with a fair amount of texture on top. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore was getting small east wrap-around windswell at thigh high and somewhat clean and weak. The East Shore was getting east windswell at waist high or so and lightly textured from weak southeast trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Sunday (6/23) in California modest Southwest Pacific swell was still hitting but past it's peak intermixed with the normal summertime local northwest windswell hitting exposed breaks. In Hawaii no real swell of interest was observed. For the future a gale developed south of New Zealand Sat (6/22) with 41 ft seas aimed northeast and is to hold through Sun (6/23) while tracking northeast before fading Monday east of New Zealand. Swell is expected to radiate towards our forecast area. And perhaps another similar system to form in the same area tracking east Fri-Sun (6/30) with up to 46 ft seas. So there continues to be hope.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast other than local windswell (see below).

Windswell Outlook
On Sunday (6/23) the usual summer time pressure gradient was holding over Cape Mendocino producing north winds there down to Pt Arena at 30 kts producing modest northwest windswell radiating down into Central CA but expected to fade in coverage by the later afternoon. An eddy flow was in control Central CA with light south winds there. No easterly fetch of 15 kts or greater was indicated east of the Hawaiian Islands. Monday (6/24) the gradient is to fade in coverage and velocity while falling south producing north winds at 20-25 kts mainly from the Golden Gate north to Southern Cape Mendocino with smaller junkier local northwest windswell expected to impact Central CA. Light northwest winds expected nearshore for all of Central CA. No fetch of interest is forecast near Hawaii. On Tuesday (6/25) the gradient is to be displaced south with 15-20 kt north winds over most of North CA and Central CA nearshore waters down to monterey Bay and thin in coverage and getting thinner through the day producing no meaningful local north windswell. Winds to be 10 kts or less east of Hawaii offering no windswell production. Wed (6/26) north winds are to be 15-20 kts limited mainly to the Pt Conception area and up to the south end of Monterey Bay offering no windswell production. No easterly fetch of interest is forecast for Hawaii.

 

  North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical weather systems of interest are forecast.

California Nearshore Forecast
On Sunday (6/23) north winds were 25-30 kts over Cape Mendocino with an eddy flow continuing for Central CA. But on Monday (6/24) north winds to weaken and start falling south at 20-25 kts over North CA and northwest at 10 kts in the afternoon for all of Central CA. Tues (6/25) north winds to be 15-20 kts nearshore for North CA and building to 15 kts for Central CA in the afternoon. Wed (6/26) north winds are to be 10-15 kts limited to Central CA mainly from Monterey south to Pt Conception as weak low pressure moves onshore over Oregon. Thurs (6/27) northwest winds to be 15-20 kts early for Pt Conception and building northward at 15 kts up to Pt Arena late afternoon. Fri (6/28) north winds to be 15-20 kts from Bodega Bay southward to Pt Conception focused on the south end of that region. Sat (6/29) northwest winds to be 15-20 kts from Pt Arena to Pt Conception all day. No change on Sunday (6/30).

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts).

 

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Sunday (6/23) the jetstream was split with the influential southern branch forming a decent trough south of New Zealand reaching up to 58S and being fed by 160 kts winds offering decent support for gale development in lower levels of the atmosphere there. But east of there a strong ridge was pushing hard south into mainland Antarctica offering no support for gale development from 160W and points east of there. Over the next 72 hours the trough is to progressively weaken and flattened and be effectively gone by Mon PM (6/24) no longer supporting gale development. The ridge is to be holding in the east also actively suppressing r gale development there. Beyond 72 hours a new ridge is to push southeast under New Zealand on Thurs (6/27) sweeping east but with a weak trough building in front of it into Fri (6/28) over the deep Central South Pacific being fed by 130 kt winds perhaps offering some support for gale development. But a new trough is to perhaps develop southeast of New Zealand on Sat (6/29) being fed by 130 kt winds lifting northeast to 55S and building some while pushing east into Sun (6/31) lifting north to 50S and still being fed by 110 kts winds offering decent support for gale development over the Central South Pacific. So there's some hope.

Surface Analysis  
Residual swell from a gale that formed south of New Zealand was fading out in California (see Southwest Pacific Gale below). Otherwise the focus is on a new gale tracking east-northeast from under New Zealand (see Another New Zealand Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours yet another but smaller gale is modeled developing and tracking east south of the Tasman Sea on Tues PM (6/25) with 50-55 kt west winds and seas building from 36 ft over a small area aimed east at 57.5S 154.5E. Fetch is to push due east on Wed AM (6/26) at 45 kts over a solid area with 39 ft seas building at 56.5S 171E aimed due east. Fetch is to be fading in the evening from 35 kts over a solid area aimed northeast with seas fading from 33 ft at 54.5S 176W aimed east-northeast. 35 kt southwest fetch to persist into Thurs AM (6/27) positioned southeast of New Zealand with seas fading from 29-30 ft at 55S 176.5W aimed east-northeast. The gael to fade from there. Something to monitor.

 

Southwest Pacific Gale
On Tues AM (6/11) a gale developed due south of New Zealand with 40-45 kt west-southwest winds with seas building to 31 ft at 62.5S 170E. In the evening 45 kt west-southwest winds were lifting northeast with seas building to 38 ft at 60.5S 178W free and clear of the Ross Ice Shelf. On Wed AM (6/12) the gale continued east-northeast with 40 kt west-southwest winds solid in coverage and seas 38 ft at 59.5S 163.5W aimed east-northeast. In the evening fetch faded from 30-35 kts over a solid area aimed northeast with 32 ft seas at 57.5S 153.5W aimed east-northeast. On Thurs AM (6/13) the gale continued northeast with 35 kts southwest winds and seas 28 ft at 57S 142.5W aimed northeast. The gale faded from there. Something to monitor. Small swell is radiating northeast.

Southern CA: Swell fading Sun (6/23) from 2.2 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.0 ft). Residuals on Mon (6/24) fading from 1.7 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 200 degrees

Northern CA: Swell fading Sun (6/23) from 2.0 ft @ 15 secs (3.0 ft). Residuals on Mon (6/24) fading from 1.6 ft @ 14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 198 degrees

 

Another New Zealand Gale
A broad gale developed south of South Australia pushing east to a point south of the Tasman Sea on Sat AM (6/22) producing a broad area of 45 kt west winds and seas building from 40 ft at 59.5S 150.5E aimed east. In the evening the gale tracked east with southwest winds 45-50 kts solid with seas to 42 ft at 59S 168E aimed east-northeast (213 degs SCal and shadowed by Tahiti, 211 degs NCal and not shadowed). On Sun AM (6/23) fetch was fading from 35 kts with a secondary gale forming over the same area producing southwest winds 45 kts over a decent sized area with seas from this new fetch building fast to 36-38 ft at 58.5S 179W elongated west to 167E aimed northeast (208-212 degs SCal and shadowed by Tahiti, 207-211 NCal and partially not shadowed). In the evening that fetch is to lift hard northeast with southwest winds 40-45 kts and seas building to 41 ft at 55S 180W aimed northeast (212 degs SCal and shadowed, 210-211 degs NCal and mostly not shadowed). On Mon AM (6/24) the gale is to rapidly be fading while lifting hard northeast with southwest winds fading from 30-35 kts and seas mostly from previous fetch fading from 35 ft at 51S 171.5W aimed northeast (210 degs SCal and shadowed, 209 degs NCal and shadowed). No additional fetch is forecast after that. Something to monitor.

Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Sat (6/29) with size building early and period 21 secs pushing 2.3 ft @ 19-20 secs later (4.5 ft). Swell peaks on Sun (6/30) at 2.8 ft @ 18-19 secs (5.0 ft with sets to 6.5 ft). Swell Direction: 195 degrees

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.

Windswell Outlook
Thursday (6/27) high pressure is to start rebuilding at 1028 mbs in the Gulf of Alaska reaching to a point off North CA with north winds 20+ kts for Central CA but weak at less than 15 for North CA offering no real local windswell potential. The gradient is to build east of Hawaii too producing east winds at 15 kts extending 1000 nmiles east of Hawaii and over the Islands mainly starting late afternoon with windswell starting to build for exposed east facing shores of Hawaii. Friday (6/28) the gradient is to build along the North and Central CA coast with north winds 15-20 kts nearshore there offering some hope for small junky north windswell. And east winds to remain solid at 15 kts from nearly Mexico over the Hawaiian Islands producing east windswell at exposed east facing shores there. Sat (6/29) the gradient is to be weaker in California with northwest winds mainly 15 kts over North and Central CA but up to 20 kts near Pt Conception resulting in modest short period windswell. East fetch is to hold decently relative to Hawaii at 15 kts extending 1500+ nmiles east of the Islands resulting in more windswell there. Sunday (6/30) more of the same is forecast with northwest winds 15 kts for North and Central CA offering junky short period windswell there while easterly fetch starts fading east of HAwaii covering only 800 nmiles and somewhat spotty offering diminishing support for windswell production at exposed east facing shores.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours a new gale is forecast building south of New Zealand on Fri AM (6/28) producing 40-45 kt west winds and seas building from 36 ft at 58S 155E aimed east. By evening a solid fetch of 50 kt southwest winds are to be building aimed northeast with seas building from 52 ft at 58S 166.5E On Sat AM (6/29) a broad fetch of 45 kt southwest winds with a core to 50 kts is to be in-place with 56 ft seas at 57S 179W aimed east-northeast. aimed east. Fetch is to hold while easing east in the evening with seas 50 ft at 56S 168W aimed east-northeast. On Sun AM (6/30) the gale is to be fading but still producing 45 kt southwest winds over a solid area with 43 ft seas at 55S 160W. The gale is to fade from there. Something to monitor.

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

Active MJO Peaking - The Future is Uncertain

The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).

Overview: La Nina started developing in early 2016, but westward displaced and generally weak. And by March 2017, it was gone with suspicious warming developing along South America and over the Galapagos to a point south of Hawaii. By May the atmosphere returned to a neutral configuration but then in July east anomalies started building in the KWGA and did not stop, with cold water upwelling over the the Nino1.2 and 3.4 areas, indicative of La Nina. A double dip La Nina was in control and continued through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then rebuilt late in Feb associated with Kelvin Wave (#3). But as of early June warm water was fading and the outlook did not favor El Nino come Fall.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Summer 2019 = 5.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: Assuming the PDO has moved to the warm phase and that weak borderline El Nino condition continue , and assuming a weak ocean-atmospheric coupling holds and ocean temperature anomalies in Nino3.4 hold in the +0.8 deg range, there is good probability for slightly enhanced storm production in the South Pacific during the Northern Hemisphere Summer time months. There is slightly increased intensity in number of storm days and storm intensity, resulting in slightly increased odds for larger than normal swell, with increased duration and higher than normal period. This should be significantly better than the past 2 Summer seasons.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (6/22) 5 day average winds were solidly from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific holding over the Central Pacific but far weaker in the West Pacific/KWGA and with one sensor indicating wind coming from the west. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific turning modest easterly over the Central Pacific then turning light to moderate westerly over the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (6/23) weak west anomalies were over the entirety of the KWGA but with solid east anomalies over the entirety of the East Pacific. The forecast is for west anomalies holding velocity but steadily retrograding to the west and giving up ground to the east anomalies in the East Pacific retrograding west and with east anomalies filling the KWGA at the end of the model run on 6/30 but much weaker than today. There is to be a little window of support for storm development through 6/26, but even that will have to overcome atmospheric momentum already predisposed to support the previous and stronger Inactive Phase of the MJO.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: (6/22) An modest Active MJO pattern was indicated filling the West Pacific today. The statistic model indicates the Active MJO Phase is to hold position and strength over the KWGA on day 5 and then slowly fading through day 15 and effectively gone at that time with an Inactive MJO signal starting to push into the extreme West Pacific. The dynamic model suggests the same pattern but with a far weaker Inactive Phase trying to push into the far West Pacific at day 15. The 2 models are fairly in sync.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (6/23) The statistical model depicts a very weak Active Phase of the MJO in the far West Pacific and it is forecast to push east into the East Pacific at day 15 but weak. The GEFS model suggests the same but with the MJO so weak as to be indiscernible.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model): (6/20) This model depicts a modest Active Phase over the MJO over the West and Central Pacific today and is to push east into Central America on 7/7. A modest Inactive MJO signal is to track over the West Pacific 6/30 pushing east up to Central America on 7/30. There's no sign of any Active Phase moving even over the Maritime Continent at that time.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/22) This model depicts a moderate Active MJO pattern in control of the KWGA today and with moderate west anomalies filling the KWGA. The Active Phase of the MJO is to push east and then out of the KWGA on 7/6 but with west anomalies building on the dateline and strong at that time, then fading some but still westerly through the end of the model run on 7/20.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/23) This model depicts a modest Inactive Phase of the MJO all but gone in the East KWGA today with the Active Phase moving into the Western KWGA with weak west anomalies starting to build in the KWGA. The Active Phase and modest westerly anomalies are to build east filling the KWGA from today through the end of the model run on 7/17 but with strong west anomalies in the East KWGA 7/1-7/9. The low pass filter indicates a low pressure bias with 2 contour lines is in control of the KWGA centered on the dateline reaching east to California. The second contour line faded on 6/23 but the remaining single remaining contour line is to hold through the end of the model run, contrary to previous runs which suggested it fading on 7/28. But it is to retract from California moving west to 180W at the end of the model run. A secondary but thin low pressure contour is to materialize over the Indian Ocean 8/19 holding through the end of the model run. This model indicates that a tendency towards El Nino was previously in control of the Pacific during the Fall of 2018, but has been steadily fading since then and is to continue a steady decline into September, but not out, with weak signs of some energy building in the Indian Ocean. Basically we are moving from a pattern biased towards El Nino to one biased towards ENSO neutral.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (6/23) Today in the far West Pacific water temps are 30 degs over a small and shrinking area centered at 177E while the 29 deg isotherm was retrograding at 160W today. The 28 deg isotherm line was retrograding at 145W. The 24 deg isotherm previously pushed into Ecuador at 30 meters down, but retrograded to 105W last week, then again pushed into Ecuador down 3 meters but today was reaching east to only 100W. Anomaly wise, gentle warm anomalies are filling the entire subsurface Pacific at +1 degs from the surface to 125 meters down (deepest on the dateline). There was a building +2 deg pocket between 180-110W (Kelvin Wave #4). The hi-res GODAS animation posted 6/17 indicates warm water from Kelvin Wave #3 and #4 filling the equatorial Pacific from 155E at +1 degs reaching east to 115W with a core at +2 degs from 170W-115W (Kelvin Wave #4) developing from WWB #4 that occurred from 5/1-5/26. A small pocket of cool water was drawing up from depth to the surface in the east at 105W. A previous stream of warm water flowing into the far West Pacific at 140E was gone. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (6/17) Positive anomalies have rebuilt lightly over the equatorial Pacific at +0-5 cms between 170W to 110W (Central Pacific) attributable to a WWB #4 that occurred there 5/1-5/26 and a smaller one at 125W (Kelvin Wave #3). From this data it looks like the Kelvin Wave #3 was dissipating in the east and Kelvin Wave #4 was weakly developing under the dateline.

Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (6/23) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate weak warm anomalies were steady from 20S to 20N on the equator from Ecuador to the dateline. But cooling developed along Peru last week, fading some early this week, but returned the past few days. And overall previous strong warming over the East Equatorial Pacific was fading to weak to modest strength today. There is some weak indication of a El Nino but nothing strong.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (6/22): A broad area of cooling is setting up along Peru up to the equator and strong west from Ecuador to 130W from there suggesting some signs of a La Nina like pattern (or at least a strong Inactive Phase of the MJO). This is a significant change from weeks previous.
Hi-res Overview: (6/22) Warmer than normal water was from Ecuador west over the Galapagos 20 degrees north and south of the equator continuing west of there to the dateline. But there is an area of developing cooling along and just off the Peruvian Coast and in pockets around the Galapagos.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/23) Today's temps were falling at -0.407 degs, about on par with the trend 2 weeks previous at -0.508 degs, and that down from a peak of +1.235 on 5/27.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(6/23) Today temps were falling some, dropping from +0.655 on 6/19 to +0.461 today.

Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (6/23) The model indicates temps were +0.75 degs in early June and are falling steadily per the model. The forecast indicates temps down to +0.55 degs July 1 then fading to +0.50 in Aug 1 then slowly rising to +0.55 into October, then fading to +0.50 in Dec and holding into March 2020. A weak El Nino like pattern is to hold into early Fall, and now, through Winter of 2019/20. A multiyear warming event is in progress and looks like it might continue.
IRI Consensus Plume: The May 2019 Plume depicts temps are at +0.70 degs today, and are to hold in the +0.65 range into October, then fading slightly to +0.60 in Jan 2020. See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad) (6/23): The daily index was negative today at -18.63, negative the last 8 days. The 30 day average was falling at -9.41 today suggesting a building Active MJO. The 90 day average was falling some at -5.89, suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern biased towards El Nino (for now).
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): (April) +0.34, March +1.0, Feb +1.29, Jan +0.193. It is approaching El Nino territory but still indicted mostly ENSO neutral conditions.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The PDO is weakly positive, even though La Nina is in play.
Per NOAAs index recent values: June 2017 +0.21, July -0.50, Aug -0.62, Sept -0.25, Oct -0.61, Nov -0.45, Dec -0.13, Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan -0.23, Feb -0.55 This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO, even with La Nina, because the warm PDO appears to be dampening the effects of La Nina. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): June 2017 +0.79, July +0.10, Aug +0.09, Sept +0.32, Oct +0.05, Nov +0.15, Dec +0.50, Jan +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

****

External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave


Powerlinessurf Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest

Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for the week starting Sunday (6/23):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k1Ky-kjI6xQ&feature=youtu.be&hd=1
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Stormsurf and Mavericks on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Mavericks Invitational Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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