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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Tuesday, June 26, 2018 1:42 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
2.0 - California & 2.2 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 6/25 thru Sun 7/1

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Small South Swell Hitting SCal
Small New Zealand Swell Tracking Northeast

BUOY ROUNDUP

On Tuesday, June 26, 2018 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance): Seas were 2.5 ft @ 16.7 secs with swell 0.9 ft @ 16.6 secs from 160 degrees.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.8 ft @ 12.0 secs with swell 1.6 ft @ 13.4 secs from 186 degrees. Wind at the buoy was southeast at 4-8 kts. Water temperature 66.4 degs. At Ventura (Buoy 111) swell was 1.3 ft @ 12.4 secs from 183 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.3 ft @ 14.8 secs from 192 degrees. At Camp Pendleton (043) swell was 1.8 ft @ 13.4 secs from 207 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.5 ft @ 13.8 secs from 181 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 8.4 ft @ 9.1 secs with northwest windswell 7.0 ft @ 10.2 secs from 313 degrees. Wind at the buoy was northwest at 12-16 kts. Water temp 57.7 degs.

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Tuesday (6/26) in North and Central CA local north windswell was producing surf at head high to 1 ft overhead at exposed breaks and pretty warbled though local wind was only light from the northwest. Protected breaks were chest to head high and cleaner but still a bit warbled with a light northwest flow on it. At Santa Cruz surf was flat to maybe knee high and clean and weak. In Southern California up north surf was occasionally waist high and and bit warbled though there was no local wind. In North Orange Co southern hemi swell was producing occasional sets in the head high range and lined up with some texture driven by light south winds. South Orange Country's best breaks were getting sets in the head high to slightly overhead range and clean and lined up with near calm wind. In North San Diego surf was waist to chest high on the bigger sets and lined up and clean with no real wind in effect. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore was thigh to maybe waist high and clean but slow. The East Shore was getting east windswell at waist high and pretty warbled bordering on chopped from moderate east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (6/26) very south angled swell was hitting exposed breaks in California having been previously generated in the far Southeast Pacific on Thurs-Fri (6/15) with 30 ft seas aimed northeast. No swell of interest was hitting Hawaii. The tropics are quiet. A gale developed Wed-Thurs (6/21) southeast of New Zealand lifting northeast with 33 ft seas aimed northeast. Tiny swell to result for Hawaii and less for CA. And nothing is on the charts for the next week targeting either California or Hawaii other than windswell. The swell drought continues.

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Tuesday AM (6/26) no swell of interest was in the water nor being generated in the North Pacific other than local windswell.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast other than windswell.

Gulf Low
A late season low pressure system built in the Northern Gulf of Alaska on Sat (6/23) with 30 kt northwest winds and seas to 16 ft at 47N 148W. Winds faded in the evening from 25 kts with seas fading from 17 ft at 48N 144W. Small 11 sec period windswell is possible for exposed breaks in North and Central CA

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues AM (6/26) at 3.6 ft @ 11 (4.0 ft) but buried in local north windswell. Swell Direction: 305 degrees.

 

Windswell Forecast
California: On Tues (6/26) high pressure at 1030 mbs was 700 nmiles off the North CA coast generating the usual pressure gradient along the CA coast with north winds up to 25 kts over North CA reaching south to Pt Arena with a 20 kt flow down to the Golden Gate and 15 kt north winds along the coast down to Morro Bay resulting in more steady but junky windswell. More of the same is forecast on Wed (6/27). Thurs (6/28) the gradient is to remain unchanged with 25 kt north winds from Cape Mendocino to the Golden Gate but hugging the coast with 20 kt north winds down to Pt Conception continuing the pattern of locally produced junky windswell. Then Friday (6/29) the gradient is to start building to 30 kts late over North CA with 20 kt north winds still holding along the Central Coast and windswell still junky. See QuikCASTs for details.

Hawaii: On Tues (6/26) high pressure at 1030 mbs 700 nmiles off the North CA coast is to still be producing a decent fetch of east to northeast winds at 15+ kts extending the whole way from North CA to HAwaii and aimed well at all the Hawaiian Islands resulting in steady modest easterly windswell along exposed east fading shores. No real change is forecast on Wed (6/27) with steady 15 kt east to northeast winds from CA to HI. Thurs (6/28) the high is to be sinking south with the gradient fading noticeably though still producing spotty patches of 15 kts east winds but likely not enough to result in meaningful easterly windswell. By Fri (6/29) the fetch is to be gone with no windswell production forecast. See QuikCASTs for details.

 

  North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored.

California Nearshore Forecast
On Tuesday AM (6/26) north winds were 25 kts for Cape Mendocino down to Pt Arena with north winds 15 kts from Pt Reyes down to Morro Bay. Wednesday (6/27) north winds to hold at 25 kts over North CA down to Pt Arena with north winds 15 kts down to Pt Conception. More of the same on Thurs (6/28) with north winds 25 kts from Cape Mendocino down to the Golden Gate and 20 kt north winds down to Pt Conception. Fri (6/29) more of the same is expected but with north winds building to 30 kts over all of North CA later and 20 kt north winds down to Pt Conception. Sat (6/30) north winds build to 30+ kts over all of North CA but with a developing eddy flow (south winds) over all of Central CA up to Pt Reyes later. Sunday (7/1) north winds to continue at 30-35 kts for North CA early down to Pt Arena with an eddy flow from Bodega Bay and south of there. Monday (7/2) north winds at 30 kts are to be limited to just north of Cape Mendocino with a weak eddy flow from Pt Arena southward. Tues (7/3) a weak eddy flow (south winds) is forecast for the entire CA coastline.

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Tuesday (6/26) the southern branch of the jetstream was tracking east under the Tasman Sea down at 59S then pushing north just east of New Zealand forming trough but weak with winds 100 kts feeding up into it offering minimal support for gale development in lower levels of the atmosphere there. East of there the jetstream fell back south again down at 60S and tracked east on that latitude the whole way to near Southern Chile with no troughs indicated and no support for gale development suggested. Over the next 72 hours starting late Wed (6/27) the existing trough is to ease east and pinch off but then redevelop with it's apex reaching up to 50S and positioned east of Southern New Zealand being fed by 100 kts winds continuing well into Thurs (6/28) offering decent support for minimal gale development. This trough is to ease east into late Fri (6/29) before finally weakening and starting to get cut off. Beyond 72 hours starting Sat (6/30) the southern branch is to be tracking zonally east on the 63S latitude line and weak while the northern branch tracks east on the 33S latitude line with no troughs forecast in either. If anything, by Mon (7/2) dual ridges are to set up in the southern branch of the jet, one pushing south under New Zealand and the second over the far Southeast Pacific actively suppressing support for gale development. But on Tues (7/3) a trough is to form between the two ridges in the deep Central Pacific with 120 kts winds pushing north offering some support for gale development near 135W. But it looks like this trough is to quickly pinch off 24 hours later. For now, the jet is generally weak and ridging south across the bulk of the South Pacific with all support for gale development in the South Atlantic.

Surface Analysis  
On Tuesday (6/26) small swell from a gale previously on the eastern edge of the California swell window was hitting California (see Southeast Pacific Gale below). Also another gale developed southeast of New Zealand providing some odds for small swell to result (see Southwest Pacific Gale below). And a small system developed in the Tasman Sea pushing filtered energy towards Hawaii (see Tasman Sea Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours no swell production is forecast in the South Pacific.

Southeast Pacific Gale
On Thurs PM (6/14) a gale started building in the far Southeast Pacific with 40 kt southwest winds and seas building to 29 ft at 55S 137.5W. On Fri AM (6/15) fetch was fading from 40 kts and on the edge of the CA swell window with seas 29 ft at 50.5S 125W aimed northeast. This system moved east of the CA swell window after that. But a second fetch started developing right behind it on Fri PM (6/15) with 45 kt southwest winds and seas building to 28 ft at 55S 128.5W. On Sat AM (6/16) 50 kt southwest winds were east of the SCal swell window with 35 ft seas at 53S 115.5W, again east of the SCal swell window. Low odds of small sideband swell radiating north towards SCal. This system is to be east of the CA swell window after that but is to continue building targeting mainly Southern Chile.

Southern CA: Swell holding on Tues (6/26) at 2.0 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell continues on Wed (6/27) at up to 2.6 ft @ 13 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell dissipating on Thurs (6/28) fading from 2.3 ft @ 12-13 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading after that. Swell Direction: 170 degrees

North CA: Swell holding on Tues (6/26) at 1.5 ft @ 15 secs (2.0 ft). Swell continues on Wed (6/27) at 2.0 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading on Thurs (6/28) at 2.1 ft @ 12-13 secs (2.5 ft). Swell fading after that. Swell Direction: 168 degrees

 

Southwest Pacific Gale
On Tues PM (6/19) a modestly broad fetch of 40 kt southwest winds started developing just south of New Zealand tracking northeast with seas building. On Wed AM (6/20) winds built to 45 kts solid aimed northeast with seas building to 33 ft at 58S 175W 9208 degs CA and shadowed by Tahiti). In the evening fetch was racing east-northeast and fading from 40 kts with seas 30 ft at 54.5S 162W aimed east-northeast (204 degrees and unshadowed in SCal). On Thurs AM (6/21) secondary fetch was fading from 30-35 kts from the northeast with seas fading from 26 ft at 50S 162W. In the evening no fetch or seas of interest are forecast. Something to monitor.

Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Wed (6/27) building to 1.6 ft @ 17-18 secs late (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell holding on Thurs (6/28) at 2.1 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell continues on Fri (6/29) at 2.4 ft @ 14 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Residuals fading on Sat (6/30) from 1.9 ft @ 13 secs early (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 190 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri (6/29) building to 1.3 ft @ 18 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). On Sat (6/30) swell is to build to 1.9 ft @ 16 secs later (3.0 ft). Swell continues on Sun (7/1) at 2.1 ft @ 16 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell fades on Mon (7/2) from 1.9 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Dribbles on Tues (7/3) at 1.5 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 208 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri (6/29) building to 1.0 ft @ 18 secs later (1.5-2.0 ft). On Sat (6/30) swell builds to 1.8 ft @ 16-17 secs later (3.0 ft). Swell continues on Sun (7/1) at 1.8 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading Mon (7/2) from 1.5 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 208 degrees

 

Tasman Sea Gale
A gale moved into the Tasman Sea on Sat AM (6/23) with 29 ft seas at 43.5S 150.5E aimed northeast. It tracked east in the evening with 29 ft seas at 47.5S 155.5E and then fell southeast on Sun AM (6/24) with 29 ft seas at 50.5S 165E. Limited energy pushing east of New Zealand on Sun PM (6/24) with seas 25 ft at 50S 170E, then dissipated from there. Limited swell possible for Fiji and Hawaii.

Hawaii: Filtered swell for Hawaii expected to arrive on Sat (6/30) pushing 1.0 ft @ 17-18 secs later (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell to build on Sun (7/1) pushing 1.5 ft @ 16-17 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading on Mon (7/2) from 1.3 ft @ 14-15 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Also swell from the east side of New Zealand arriving later building to 1.5 ft @ 15-16 sec late (2.0-2.5 ft). On Tues (7/3) swell up to 2.0 ft @ 14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 215 degrees turning to 195 degrees

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

Windswell Forecast
California:
Saturday (6/30) the gradient is to build more while lifting north some with 30-35 kt north winds over all of North CA with a well developed eddy flow (south winds) taking hold from Pt Reyes southward. Larger and somewhat cleaner windswell for Central CA possible. More of the same is expected on Sun (7/1) with north winds 30-35 kts early and the eddy flow well developed for Central CA up to Pt Reyes. Monday (7/2) the core of the gradient is to be limited to north Cape Mendocino at 30+ kts with the eddy flow reaching north to nearly Pt Arena. Windswell fading some. By Tues (7/3) the gradient is to be fading producing north to northeast winds at 25 kts limited to Cape Mendocino with the eddy flow holding south of there and windswell small in Central CA but still clean.

Hawaii: On Sat (6/30) no windswell production is forecast. Sunday (7/1) easterly fetch at 15 kts is to start creeping west again from California but still 1000 nmiles east of Hawaii. Monday (7/2) 20 kt east-to northeast fetch is to extend from CA to within 600 nmiles of Hawaii and 15 kt easterly fetch in pockets to the Islands but odds for windswell production to still be low. On Tues (7/3) a fully developed fetch of 15-20 kt easterly winds is to extend from California west to a point just north of the Hawaiian Islands and beyond. Good odds for sideband windswell radiating into all the Hawaiian Islands but without the fetch actually impacting the Islands. Interesting.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

More details to follow...

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

Equatorial Warm Pool Building

The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).

Overview: La Nina started developing in early 2016, but westward displaced and generally weak. And by March 2017, it was gone with suspicious warming developing along South America and over the Galapagos to a point south of Hawaii. By May the atmosphere returned to a neutral configuration but then in July east anomalies started building in the KWGA and have not stopped, with cold water upwelling over the the Nino1.2 and 3.4 areas, indicative of La Nina. A double dip La Nina was in control and continued through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and was building over equatorial waters in early June, suggesting the demise of La Nina.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Summer 2018 (California & Hawaii) = 4.0
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast:
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of Mon (6/25) 5 day average winds were solidly from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific but weakening starting south of Hawaii and light over the Kelvin Wave Generation Area. Anomalies were neutral from the Galapagos to a point south of Hawaii then moderate westerly from there to the dateline, then weakly westerly over the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (6/26) Light west anomalies were over the entire Eastern Pacific into the eastern KWGA from 160E and points east of there with moderate east anomalies from 150E and point west of there. The forecast suggests moderate east anomalies are to hold over the west KWGA and building east to the dateline through the end of the forecast period 7/3. There's some sense the a small pocket of west anomalies might start building at 150E at that time. In short, a Inactive/Dry MJO signal looks to be holding for the bulk of the KWGA for next week then weakening on the last day of the model run.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: (6/25) An weak Inactive/Dry MJO signal was over the West KWGA. The statistical model depicts the Inactive/Dry MJO signal is to slowly push east while fading and gone at day 5 of the model run with a weak Active signal starting to show in the far West Pacific at day 15. The dynamic model depicts the same thing but with the Inactive Phase holding to day 8 and then neutral through day 15. For the most part the models are in sync.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (6/25) The ECMF model depicts the Active Phase of the MJO was weak over Africa and is to fade while tracking steadily east for the next 15 days, reaching the Maritime Continent 15 days out. The GEFS model depicts the same thing but with the MJO making little eastward progress and over the Western Indian Ocean 15 days out.
40 day Upper Level Model: (6/26) This model depicts an Inactive/Dry MJO signal was over the far West Pacific/KWGA. It is to track east steadily reaching Central America 7/16. A weak version of the Active/Wet Phase is to develop in the West Pacific 7/6 easing east to the East Pacific at the end of the model run on 8/5. A new very weak Inactive Phase is to start building over the West Pacific on 7/24 pushing to the Central Pacific at the end of the model run on 8/5.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/23) East anomalies are to hold over the the western half of KWGA building east ad filling the KWGA on 7/1 before quickly dissipating on 7/5. But by July 6 no east anomalies are forecast in the KWGA with west anomalies building and filling the KWGA and holding through the end of the model run on 7/21. It almost looks like a broad non-stop westerly wind burst is to set up fueling El Nino starting 7/7 (or a little less than 2 weeks from now). Interesting.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/26) This model depicts the Inactive Phase of the MJO was starting to build over the KWGA with west anomalies over the dateline and points east of there with light east anomalies in the KWGA from 155E and points west of there. The Inactive Phase is to hold through 7/29 but with west anomalies starting to build from 165E and retrograding west filing the KWGA 7/12 and beyond even though the Inactive Phase is to be in control. Likely a Rossby Wave is to be supporting this flow. The Active Phase is to follow 7/30 through 9/9 with west anomalies building solid in the KWGA and strong 8/12-9/1 indicative of a Westerly Wind Burst (WWB). The Inactive Phase is to start building on 9/7-9/23 but with west anomalies holding in the KWGA, just weaker than previously. The low pass filter indicates a low pressure bias is fully in control of the KWGA reaching east to 145W and forecast to hold if not ease east to 135W on 7/21 and 130W at the end of the model run also building from 2 contour lines to 3 solidly starting 7/8 and holding thereafter. This is good news for the coming Fall-Winter season. The high pressure bias is limited to an area south of California and shrinking at the end of the model run and moving inland over California and all but gone by 9/22. The La Nina bias is gone. The expectation is that the atmosphere and ocean will begin to be coupled 3 months after the start of the transition or on 8/8 (low pressure bias officially filled the KWGA starting on 5/8) in a more favorable configuration to support storm production in the Pacific.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (6/26) Today in the far West Pacific water temps are 30 degs reaching east to 165E. The 28 deg isotherm line is stationary today at 150W after having moved from the dateline last winter, moving east to 165W on 5/15, then to 160W on 5/22 then to 154W on 6/19 and then to 150W on 6/24 from the surface to 75 meters deep. The 24 deg isotherm was stable at 115 meters deep at 140W and 75 meters deep at 120W rising to 40 meters into Ecuador. Anomaly wise in the East Pacific, warm waters from a Kelvin Wave are focused in the East Pacific at depth. Warm anomalies were moving east from 135W and points east of there at +3.0 degs down 100 meters pushing and reaching east past the Galapagos. These waters are breaching the surface from 135W and points east of there. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 6/22 depicts a large Kelvin Wave starting at 145W building to +4.5 degs extending unbroken to the east to Ecuador and breaching the surface between 100W-145W. No residual cool water from La Nina are indicated. And more warm water was pushing east from 140E reaching over the dateline and joining the existing Kelvin Wave. A river of warm water was effectively flowing east from the Maritime Continent eastward into the Pacific. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (6/22) Positive anomalies were solid from the West Equatorial Pacific at +5 cms reaching from the Maritime Continent north of New Guinea then east to the Ecuador with no breaks with anomalies in pockets at +5-10 cms. No negative anomalies were indicated. The La Nina cool pool is gone.

Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (6/25) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate weak localized pockets of cool anomalies along the immediate coast of Peru and very shallow and weakening as compared to days past. But of more significance was a building area of warm water erupting on the oceans surface on the equator from the Galapagos west to 160W. This area was fully coherent today and almost completely filling the equator from 90W to the dateline 3 degs north and south of the equator. A broad area of warming was also filling the area south of Mexico and out to the dateline. The remnants of the La Nina cool pool were south of the equator between 115W-170W and south of 4S and all but gone.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (6/25): Pockets of warming were scattered along the equator from Ecuador to the dateline and building some compared to the last report. 2 pockets of cooling were indicated over the Galapagos and another at 100W. Generic spotty cooling previously off the immediate Peru coast was gone and pockets of spotty warming were now present.
Hi-res Overview: (6/25) A weak area of cool water was present along Chile and Peru. Otherwise warm water was building on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos and west from there to the dateline from 4S up to 20N and building in coherence. The only cool water was in the fading remnant pocket from La Nina limited to an area south of the equator starting at 4S between 110W-165W and steadily loosing coverage.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/26) Today's temps were rising at -0.818, down from -0.428 on 6/7, up from -0.819 on 5/22, and that down from a recent peak rising to +0.459 on 5/13. This is part of a larger rising trend that started 4/10 indicative of the collapse of La Nina. Overall temps had been steadily marching upwards since late December.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/26) Today temps were rising some today at +0.252 down from +0.342 on 6/21 after falling from +0.344 on 6/15. It appears the trend is moving positive, the first time in over a year. Previously temps were -0.266 on 6/2, -0.427 on 5/12 after having reached up to -0.254 degs on 5/1. Temps have been steadily rising since 3/27 when they were down at -1.2 degs.

Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (6/26) The forecast depicts temps bottomed out at -0.75 in Nov 2017 and have been slowly rising since, up to -0.5 in mid-March and neutral in June. The forecast calls for a steady increase from here forward with temp pushing up to +0.45 degs on July 1 and rising in early Oct to +1.1 degs and +1.3 degs in Nov then slowly fading from there but still above the +1.0 range into March 2019. This suggests La Nina is gone and that perhaps El Nino is to build through the Summer and Fall of 2018. Most other models are also suggesting a possible turn to minimal weak El Nino conditions by late Fall.
IRI Consensus Plume: The mid-June Plume depicts temps at +0.3 degs in late June and are to slowly rise from here forward, to +0.6 in August and +0.8 in October and +1.0 in January holding there.
See chart here - link. It looks like La Nina is fading out and a weak El Nino might develop. The CFSv2 is in the low end of that pack.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (negative is good, positive bad) (6/26): The daily index was rising some today at 6.40. The 30 day average was falling today at -5.54 suggesting the Inactive Phase of the MJO was fading. The 90 day average was falling some at +0.59 suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern was building in the atmosphere. This is expected for a month more before falling into steady negative territory by mid August.
ESPI (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): (6/26) Today the index was falling slightly at -0.37. Recent points of interest in reverse chronological order are: -1.04 on 6/5, -0.70 on 5/20, -0.60 on 5/17, -0.36 on 5/11 and -0.38 on 5/10, -0.35 on 4/26, -1.02 on 4/5, -1.13 on 3/27. The trend is upward but still less than a -0.33 reading in late Feb. The trend suggests La Nina is not gone, but fading steadily. This index is a forerunner of what happens in the ocean by 2-3 months in developing El Nino and La Nina events. The goal is to have it rise to at least -0.5 before a significant change could be suggested.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The PDO is weakly positive, even though La Nina is in play.
Per NOAAs index recent values: April 2017=+0.53, May=+0.29, June=+0.21, July= -0.50, Aug= -0.62, Sept = -0.25, Oct= -0.61, Nov = -0.45, Dec= -0.13, Jan 2018=+0.29, Feb= -0.10, Mar= -0.51, April = -0.85, May =-0.61. This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO, even with La Nina, because the warm PDO appears to be dampening the effects of La Nina. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): Jan 2017 = +0.77, Feb = +0.70, Mar = +0.74, April=+1.12, May=+0.88, June=+0.79, July=+0.10, Aug=+0.09, Sept = +0.32, Oct=+0.05, Nov = +0.15, Dec = +0.50, Jan +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar = -0.05. No negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

 

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External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave

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