On Thursday (6/28) Northern CA surf was waist high and junky. South facing breaks in Santa Cruz were flat. Central California surf (Morro Bay) was maybe waist high and junky. Southern CA from Santa Barbara to just north of LA was flat. The LA Area southward to Orange County was waist high at the best breaks. Southward from Orange County into San Diego best breaks were thigh to waist high and weak. The North Shore of Oahu was flat. The South Shore was thigh high. The East Shore report was not available.
North/Central California was essentially flat other than a bit of waist high windswell in select spots. Southern California was getting small northwest windswell at select locations. Hawaii was flat on the North Shore with very weak windswell on the South Shore and moderate local windswell on the East Shore. No surf of interest is forecast in California for the next few days though some little windswell might be had with luck. Local windswell to continue for Hawaii's East Shore. But the real story is the southern hemi swell pushing north. Tahiti got a very solid dose of swell from a storm that pushing up into the Tasman Sea last week then over New Zealand. Most of that swell was just barely in the California swell window coming under New Zealand and also in the Hawaiian swell window but coming up the Tasman Sea window. And then the system reorganized in the Southwest Pacific providing another dose of energy for all. And yet more tag-along energy is still forecast from this one south of Tahiti today. So in all, a rather long lasting bit of moderate swell is forecast for everyone with a little luck. Forecasts have been updated below based on the latest data. See details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis.cgius forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
Thursdays jetstream charts (6/28) for the North Pacific indicated a very weak flow working it's way over the Aleutians then dipping southeast into the Gulf of Alaska forming a trough just off Canada. But winds were only 90 kts not offering any real fuel for surface level low pressure development. Over the next 72 hours energy levels to come up in the trough in the Gulf to the 120 kt range Saturday (6/30) then fading some while the trough holds it's own. Limited support for surface level low pressure development in the Gulf. Beyond 72 hours more energy is forecast pushing into the trough in the Gulf at 120 kts Sun/Mon (7/2) providing limited support for surface level low pressure development then fading out mid-next week.
At the surface today near neutral pressure was the norm over the Eastern Pacific with no swell producing fetch indicated. High pressure was hanging over the dateline providing a minor pressure gradient over Hawaii and enhancing trades some there, but only over a shallow area enabling these winds to generate only very short period windswell along eastern shores. Over the next 72 hrs the high pressure system is to hold north of Hawaii but weaken with trades fading some more and windswell waning by Friday. The models suggest low pressure developing in the Gulf of Alaska Sunday (7/1) producing 30-35 kt northwest fetch pushing southeast and aimed towards California into Monday possibly generating 22 ft seas. This seems highly unlikely but is something to monitor. If it were to happen some form of 13 sec period windswell would reach exposed California breaks late week. Also a limited area of north winds at 20-25 are forecast over Pt Conception providing only minimal hope for windswell mainly into far Southern California over the weekend into early next week.
No tropical systems of interest were being tracked at this time.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
California Offshore Forecast
On Thursday (6/28) high pressure at 1030 mbs was well out to sea, over the dateline and having only minimal impact on our area. Northwest winds at 20-25 kts were being generated by it off Pt Conception, and that is to be the trend for the foreseeable future. Northwest winds to grow a little to the north Friday pushing over the San Francisco Bay area at 15 kts, maybe building to 20 kts Saturday and holding into early next week. The short story is local windchop and small very short period windswell expected from Bodega Bay southward to Pt Conception into early next week, though Southern Ca to be sheltered from the wind and most of the resulting windswell too.
Thursday jetstream charts (6/28) for the South Pacific indicated an amazing pattern not so much for it's swell productively potential, but just for it's beauty. The southern branch of the jetstream was meandering flat west to east over the width of the South Pacific just off the northern edge of the Ross Ice Shelf at 70 kts, pretty much eliminating any potential for storm development but isolating cooler air at the surface to the Antarctic landmass. But the northern branch of the jet was spectacular, with winds 180-190 kts over it's entire width from Australia to Chile with no less than 3 steep well defined troughs over that same distance. Most impressive. But again, all the potential for surface level storm development was cut off by the weaker branch of the jet to the south. Over the next 72 hours through Sunday (7/1) the pattern to mostly hold, through the middle of the three troughs is to actually draw the southern branch of the jet up into it forming a massive though very steep and almost pinched trough running from the Ross Ice Shelf northward to just shy of Tahiti Fri/Sat. Most impressive, but it's too be too short-lived to have much impact down at the oceans surface, falling apart and pinching off quickly. Beyond 72 hours the southern branch of the jet to take control flowing briskly west to east over the Ross Ice Shelf and totally cutting the troughs to the north off from the flow of energy, pretty much eliminating any chance for surface level gale development.
At the surface today the remnants of a storm/gale described above was 900 nmiles south of Tahiti continuing to circulate there and trying to reorganize, but with only limited 30-35 kts fetch aimed north towards Tahiti with limited 23 ft seas modeled pushing the same way. To the east high pressure at 1024 mbs was holding control of the Southeastern Pacific pushing almost the entire way south to Antarctica. No other weather features of interest were indicated. Over the next 72 hours the Tahiti low is to fall apart and start crashing to the south as the jetstream flow above it falls apart. Any winds associated with it are to be aimed towards Antarctica. High pressure to retain control of the Southeast Pacific. No other systems of interest are modeled.
New Zealand Storm (updated)
Late Wednesday (6/20) a new storm organized well south of Tasmania with pressure 956 mbs and winds building to 50 kts over a small area at 57S 140E aimed northeast and barely in the Hawaiian-Fiji swell window (208 degrees) that goes through the Tasman Sea. Energy was also aimed right up the 220 degree path from California but an unbelievable 7815 nmiles away.
By Thursday AM (6/21) winds continued at 45-50 kts at 50S 150E again on the eastern edge of the Hawaiian swell window, but pushing energy up into it. These winds were also aimed about 15 degrees north of the 220 degree path to California and still 7400 nmiles away. Seas were modeled at 32 ft at 57S 140E. The low held in the evening with winds still 45-50 kts at 44S 162E again right on the very edge of the swell window relative to Hawaii. Also winds were aimed just north of the very edge of the California swell window up the 221 degree path. Seas were modeled at 35 ft at 52S 150E. The Jason-1 satellite made a pass over the western edge of the fetch and reported seas at 31 ft at 49S 150E, completely consistent with the WW3 wave model.
By Friday AM (6/22) the fetch was impacting New Zealand at 40-45 kts but was totally obscured by land relative to Hawaii. But new fetch at 45 kts was just under New Zealand at 47S 173E aimed towards CA up the 219 degree path. The Jason-1 satellite reported seas of near 30 ft on the very edge of the Hawaiian swell window at 44S 165E finding 37 ft seas, consistent with the wave model output. In the evening the low was reorganizing well southeast of New Zealand just off Antarctica with pressure 944 mbs with a broad area of 40 kts winds pushing northeast up the eastern coast of New Zealand at 50S 171E pushing right up the 201 degree great circle path to Hawaii and equally well up the 221 degree path to California. The ocean was not yet fully responding to this new wind source, though 33 ft seas continued modeled at 49S 165E pushing towards California. The Jason -1 satellite passed right over this area and confirmed seas 32 ft at 46S 173E with a peak individual reading of 38 ft there. Very nice.
On Saturday (6/23) 50 kts winds were developing almost under the low over Antarctic Ice with only 30-35 kts winds persisting east of New Zealand. The models suggested a small area of 30 ft seas at 47S 178E pushing towards Hawaii up the 201 degree path and the 220 degree path to California, but likely too small to have much impact on the later. The Jason-1 satellite passed a little north of this area and confirmed 28 ft seas at 43S 175W again right on track with the models. In the evening 50 kts winds were confirmed at 55S 168E blowing right up the 201 degree path to Hawaii and 30 degrees north of the 215 degree path to California. 29 ft seas were holding just east of New Zealand at 45S 180W. The Jason-1 satellite passed a bit south of this area reporting 27 ft seas at 55S 173E, about 1 ft less than the wave model. Not too bad.
On Sunday AM (6/24) finally a good fetch of 40-45 kts south winds started pushing north from the low at 55S 170E generating a new area of 32 ft sea at the same location aimed right at Hawaii up the 201 degree path and 20 degrees north of the 213 degree path to California. The Jason-1 satellite passed north and south of this area reporting seas about as expected, maybe a little less. In the evening the fetch started fading down to 35 kts at 50S 175E with 32 ft seas at 50S 173E aimed the same way as all previous readings.
By Monday AM (6/25) a broad fetch was still in.cgiace aimed north but only at 30 kts with stronger winds pushing off Antarctic Ice. Sea were fading from 28 ft at 50S 178E. Nothing by nightfall of interest expected with seas fading from 27 ft at 53S 180W. The Jason-1 satellite reported seas at 23-25 ft in an area that was modeled at 25 ft, so again the models appeared to have a good handle on the situation, maybe overstating it just by a foot.
Some form of decent 17-18 sec period swell seems likely for Hawaii pushing from the Tasman Sea northward from not too far a distance (4886-6105 nmiles), but likely experienced some grating and commensurate size reduction thanks to Fiji and surrounding Islands. The Wavewatch III wam does not recognize these islands as existing, so any output from it regarding swell heights will be overstated. Energy was also tracking under New Zealand with the fetch aimed reasonably well up the great circle paths to California too, but an incredible long distance away (6067-7815 nmiles). But a second burst of larger size is expected from when the storm moved clear of New Zealand thanks to it's close proximity to Hawaii (4623-4937 nmiles) and good aim. Less size expected for California due to the long travel distance (6110-6528 nmiles) and the rather off-angle heading.
Hawaii: Expect swell hitting the Hawaiian Islands by Thursday (6/28) near 3 PM through the Tasman Sea route with period 20 secs but size tiny if even noticeable. Friday (6/29) size to be coming up through the day with swell maybe 2 ft @ 17 secs (3-4 ft faces) right at sunset. Swell building overnight reaching 3.0 ft @ 15-16 secs (4.5 ft faces) on Saturday AM (6/30). Swell fading from 3 ft @ 14-15 secs (4.0-4.5 ft faces) Sunday AM (7/1). New swell to start arriving from when the storm started getting east of New Zealand Monday AM (7/2) at 3.1-3.4 ft @ 16-17 secs (5-6 ft faces) filling in through the day and maxing late with intermixed smaller swell from the Fiji corridor. Primary swell fading from 3.3 ft @ 15 secs (5 ft faces) Tuesday AM (7/3) though additional energy might be building from yet another incarnation of the storm (see below). Swell Direction 208 & 199-201 degrees.
South California: Small energy sneaking in from under New Zealand Sunday (7/1) by sunrise with period 20-21 secs but tiny if event noticeable and trickling up. On Monday (7/2) swell to start becoming noticeable as period drops to 17 secs near noon with swell 2 ft @ 17 secs (3 ft faces) from 220 degrees. This swell to continue Tuesday at 2.6 ft @ 16 secs (3.5-4.0 ft faces). Expect real swell arrival starting Wednesday AM (7/4) with period 17 secs and size building to 2.6 ft @ 16 secs late (4 ft faces) and continued 14-15 sec energy intermixed from under New Zealand at 2.6 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.5 ft). Swell holding at 2.4-2.6 ft @ 15 secs (3.5-4.0 ft faces early) Thursday (7/5) . Swell fading from 2.5 ft @ 14 secs Friday mid-day (3.5 ft faces). Swell Direction: 211-221 degrees
North California: Small energy to start sneaking in from under New Zealand Sunday (7/1) mid-morning with period 20-21 secs but tiny, very inconsistent and likely unnoticeable. Size coming up. Swell to start becoming rideable Monday (7/2) near 2 PM with swell 2 ft @ 17 secs (3 ft faces) from 220 degrees. This swell to continue Tuesday (7/3) building to 2.6-3.0 ft @ 16 secs (3.5-4.5 ft faces). Expect real swell arrival starting Wednesday AM (7/4) with period 17 secs and size building to 2.6 ft @ 16 secs late (4 ft faces) and continued 14-15 sec energy intermixed from under New Zealand at 2.6 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.5 ft). Swell holding at 2.4-2.6 ft @ 15 secs (3.5-4.0 ft faces early) Thursday (7/5). Swell fading from 2.5 ft @ 14 secs Friday mid-day (3.5 ft faces). Swell Direction: 213-219 degrees
New Zealand Storm Rejuvenation
Some very limited rejuvenation of the above system started Thursday AM (7/28) with a fragmented fetch of south to southwest winds at 30-35 kts at 33S 160W aimed well towards Tahiti and Hawaii up the 180 degree paths. 23 ft seas were modeled at 30S 165W. In the evening winds to build to 40 kts over a tiny area at 35S 150W embedded in a broader area of 30-35 kts winds again aimed north. 23 ft seas forecast at 33S 160W, with larger seas already aimed south towards Antarctica.
Friday AM (7/29) 40 kt winds to hold, but taking aim more to the northeast and east and changing direction fast, limiting it's foothold on any one square inch of the oceans surface. 25 ft seas forecast at 30S 155W aimed north towards Hawaii, Tahiti and California. In the evening only lingering 25-30 kt fetch to be aimed north, with most winds taking aimed towards Antarctica. 25 ft seas still modeled at 30S 152W aimed like before. This system to be effectively dead.
Assuming this occurs as modeled, some form of 13-14 sec period swell is likely for Hawaii and California, though well decayed size wise upon arrival. And given all the stronger swell source above, this energy will most likely just look like a continuation of the swell, serving only to extend it's life mainly in regards to Hawaii. It should do much for Tahiti though, pushing more size their way, though again limited by it's comparatively short period.
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours the slowly fading remnants of low pressure schedule for the Gulf of Alaska to hold high pressure at bay, minimizing the potential for local windswell generation along the California coast. And high pressure that was over the dateline is to totally fade out, shutting down windswell generation potential from trades over the Hawaiian Islands. The models suggest yet another low to try and develop in the Gulf late next week too, but this seems even more unlikely.
Beyond 72 hours a desperately quiet pattern is to emerge over the South Pacific, looking very calm with no weather systems of interest forecast.
Details to follow...
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6th Annual Jay Moriarity Memorial Paddleboard Race: Saturday June 23rd 2007. Surftech is presenting the 6th Annual Jay Moriarity Memorial Paddleboard Race. The “Jay Race” is considered one of the premiere paddleboard races on the West Coast attracting the states best paddlers to compete in the challenging waters of the Monterey Bay. is the 12-mile race course that start's and finishes at beautiful New Brighton State Beach in Aptos and loops through the kelp beds of the Monterey Bay. In addition to the 12 mile race, there will be a 2 mile Short Course and Youth Races for paddlers of all levels. The 2 mile race is an opportunity for paddlers of all levels to compete.” It's about sharing the spirit and stoke that Jay shared with everyone” With this spirit in mind, many competitors partaking in the 12 mile race offer their boards to newer competitors to use in the shorter race. With the 12 mile race starting at 8:30 am, the other races begin mid day with the awards being presented at around 2:00 pm. For more information:
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table