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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Saturday, June 29, 2019 12:50 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
3.7 - California & 3.6 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 7/1 thru Sun 7/7

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

New Zealand Swell Hitting HI
Another New Zealand Storm Developing

BUOY ROUNDUP
On Saturday, June 29, 2019 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/ Buoy 239 (Lanai) Seas were 2.8 ft @ 10.5 secs with swell 0.8 ft @ 21.2 secs from 199 degrees.
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 2.1 ft @ 6.7 secs with swell 1.6 ft @ 6.5 secs from 40 degrees.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.5 ft @ 11.4 secs with swell 1.2 ft @ 10.5 secs from 194 degrees. Wind at the buoy was north at 1-2 kts. Water temperature 66.4 degs. At Harvest (Buoy 071) primary swell was 5.6 ft @ 6.6 secs from 313 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.9 ft @ 6.1 secs from 268 degrees. At Camp Pendleton (043) swell was 0.9 ft @ 12.9 secs from 201 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.3 ft @ 6.3 secs from 281 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 5.7 ft @ 6.2 secs with swell 4.6 ft @ 6.1 secs from 321 degrees. Wind at the buoy (013) was northwest at 14-16 kts. Water temp 56.5 degs (042) and 53.6 degs (013).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Saturday (6/29) in North and Central CA minimal locally generated northwest windswell was producing waves at thigh high and mushed with modest texture out of the northwest. Protected breaks were knee to thigh high and barely breaking and soft with some texture from the northwest. At Santa Cruz surf was knee to thigh high on rare sets and clean and soft. In Southern California/Ventura surf was thigh to maybe waist high on rare sets and textured with light northwest winds. In North Orange Co southern hemi background swell was occasionally producing waves to waist high and clean and lined up. South Orange Country's best summertime breaks were waist to maybe chest high on rare sets and heavily textured early and soft. North San Diego had surf at thigh to maybe waist high on the sets and lined up and clean but soft. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore was starting to register very long period New Zealand swell on the buoy but surf was waist high to maybe chest on the sets and lined up and clean and rideable but nothing more. The East Shore was waist high or so and chopped from modest east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Saturday (6/29) in California no real swell was hitting either from the north or south. In Hawaii the very bleeding early edge of New Zealand swell was starting to show mainly at the buoys. For the future a gale developed south of New Zealand Sat-Sun (6/23) with 41 ft seas aimed northeast while tracking northeast before fading Monday. Swell is radiating towards our forecast area and starting to hit Hawaii now. And perhaps a broader system was developing south of New Zealand and is to track east-northeast Fri-Mon (7/1) with up to 42 ft seas. And possibly more behind that too.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast other than local windswell (see below).

Windswell Outlook
On Saturday (6/29) the usual summertime pressure gradient was weak in California producing northwest winds at 15 kts over North CA and up to 20 kts in pockets from Monterey Bay south to Pt Conception resulting in small short period windswell. East fetch is to hold decently relative to Hawaii early at 15 kts extending 900 nmiles east of the Islands resulting in more windswell there. Sunday (6/30) more of the same is forecast for CA with northwest winds 15-20 kts for North and Central CA offering junky short period windswell there while easterly fetch starts fading up to 800 nmiles east of Hawaii occurring only in distant patches offering diminishing support for windswell production at exposed east facing shores. Monday (7/1) the gradient is to strengthen some for California with north winds 15-20 kts early over all of North and Central Ca nearshore waters building to 20-25 kts later offering increased odds fro junky local north windswell production. East fetch to dissipate for Hawaii with no odds for windswell production. Tuesday (7/2) the gradient is to build more for California with north winds 20-25 kts over all of North and Central CA waters producing building raw local northwest windswell. No east fetch of interest is expected relative to Hawaii resulting in no east windswell there.

 

  North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
Tropical Depression Alvin was all but gone on Sat AM (6/29) positioned 900 nmiles south of Pt Conception CA and offering no swell production potential.

The GFS model is hinting at a new tropical system developing 1400 nmiles south of Pt Conception CA on Mon PM (7/1) tracking northwest and building. By Thurs AM (7/4) this system is to be solid and turning to the west positioned 1200 nmiles south-southwest of Pt Conception or 1700 nmiles east-southeast of Hawaii tracking west-northwest. Later on Fri (7/5) this system it to be tracking west and starting to fade mid-day Sat (7/6) 1100 nmiles east of Hawaii. Possible east swell to result if one is to believe the models.

California Nearshore Forecast
On Saturday (6/29) northwest winds were 15 kts from Pt Arena south and up to 20 kts over Pt Conception all day. Sunday (6/30) northwest winds to be 15 kts nearshore for all of North and Central CA. Monday (7/1) northwest winds to be 15-20 kts over all of North and Central CA and building later. Tuesday (7/2) northwest winds are to be 20 kts and up to 25 kts in pockets over North CA and Central CA. fetch fading some on Wednesday (7/3) at 15+ kts for North CA and 20+ kts for Central CA. On Thurs (7/4) north winds to be 15-20 kts over all of North and Central CA. Fri (7/5) north winds to be 15-20 kts for all of North and Central CA. Sat (7/6) north winds to continue at mostly 20 kts for all of North and Central CA.

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts).

 

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Saturday (6/29) a trough was starting to build under New Zealand being fed by 120-130 kt winds lifting north to 52S and sweeping east while building in coherence into late Sun (6/30) over the Central South Pacific with it's apex up to 48S 145W offering good support for gale development then starting to pinch off on Mon (7/1) and being undercut and gone. At the same time a ridge is to be building under New Zealand and sweeping east and then overriding the remnants of the trough on Tues (7/2) with no support for gale development expected anywhere in the South Pacific at that time.
But on Wed-Thurs (7/4) there's indications of a new trough starting to build under New Zealand pushing east and moving over the Central South Pacific being fed by 140 kt west winds lifting north to 58S at 150W opening up a small area between the jet and Ross Ice Shelf to support gale development. The trough to lift slowly north into later Fri and into Sat (7/6) at 57S and mostly filling the extreme far South Pacific (both West and East) offering potential for gale development. And by later Saturday the trough is to become reinforced by a broad area of 130 kt southwest winds pushing hard northeast under and east of New Zealand offering great support for gale development. Something to possibly look forward to.

Surface Analysis  
Swell from a gale that tracked east-northeast from under New Zealand is starting to hit Hawaii and pushing northeast from there towards California (see Another New Zealand Gale below). A secondary gale followed behind (see Secondary NZ Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours another solid gale is to be traversing the South Pacific (see New Zealand Gale below).

 

Another New Zealand Gale
A broad gale developed south of South Australia pushing east to a point south of the Tasman Sea on Sat AM (6/22) producing a broad area of 45 kt west winds and seas building from 40 ft at 59.5S 150.5E aimed east. In the evening the gale tracked east with southwest winds 45-50 kts solid with seas to 42 ft at 59S 168E aimed east-northeast (213 degs SCal and shadowed by Tahiti, 211 degs NCal and not shadowed). On Sun AM (6/23) fetch was fading from 35 kts with a secondary gale forming over the same area producing southwest winds 45 kts over a decent sized area with seas from this new fetch building fast to 36-38 ft at 58.5S 179W elongated west to 167E aimed northeast (208-212 degs SCal and shadowed by Tahiti, 207-211 NCal and partially not shadowed). In the evening that fetch lifted hard northeast with southwest winds 40-45 kts and seas building to 41 ft at 55S 179.5W aimed northeast (212 degs SCal and shadowed, 210-211 degs NCal and mostly not shadowed). On Mon AM (6/24) the gale rapidly faded while lifting hard northeast with southwest winds fading from 30-35 kts and seas mostly from previous fetch fading from 36 ft at 52S 170W aimed northeast (210 degs SCal and shadowed, 209 degs NCal and shadowed). No additional fetch or seas of interest occurred after that. Swell is radiating northeast.

Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Sat (6/29) with size building early and period 21 secs pushing 2.4 ft @ 19-20 secs later (4.5 ft with sets to 6.0 ft). Swell peaks on Sun (6/30) at 3.0 ft @ 18 secs later (5.0 ft with sets to 6.5 ft). Swell fading some on Mon (7/1) from 2.8 ft @ 16-17 secs (4.5 ft with sets to 5.5 ft). Swell fading on Tues (7/2) from 2.1 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.0 ft) and fading steadily through the day. Swell Direction: 195 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon (7/1) building to 1.4 ft @ 20 secs late (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell peaking on Tues (7/2) at 2.0 ft @ 18-19 secs (3.5-4.0 ft with sets to 5.0 ft). Swell to hold on Wed (7/3) at 2.2 ft @ 17 secs (3.5 ft with sets to 4.5 ft). Swell fading slowly on Thurs (7/4) from 2.1 ft @ 16 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). See Secondary NZ Gale below for more swell. Swell Direction: 210 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon (7/1) building to 1.6 ft @ 20-21 secs late (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell peaking on Tues (7/2) at 2.3 ft @ 18-19 secs (4.0-4.5 ft with sets to 5.5 ft). Swell to hold on Wed (7/3) at 2.5 ft @ 17-18 secs early (4.0-4.5 ft with sets to 5.5 ft). Swell fading slowly on Thurs (7/4) from 2.3 ft @ 16 secs (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 213 degrees

 

Secondary NZ Gale
Another but smaller gale developing while tracking east south of the Tasman Sea on Mon PM (6/24) with 40 kt west winds and seas building from 32 ft over a small area aimed east at 58S 168E. Fetch pushed due east on Tues AM (6/25) at 30-35 kts with a core to 50 kts over a tiny area with 31 ft seas fading at 56.5S 179E aimed east-northeast. Fetch faded out in the evening with no additional seas of interest forecast.

Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Mon PM (7/1) pushing to 1.3 ft @ 19 secs late (2.5 ft). Swell peaking on Tues (7/2) at 2.0 ft @ 17 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell fading some on Wed (7/3) from 2.1 ft @ 15 secs (3.0 ft). Another pulse to arrive on Thurs AM (7/4) at 2.3 ft @ 15 secs early (3.5 ft). Swell fading some on Fri AM (7/5) from 2.1 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading out overnight. Swell Direction: 191-192 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri (7/5) building to 2.2 ft @ 16 secs (3.5 ft) holding all day. Swell building on Sat (7/6) to 3.1 ft @ 15-16 secs (4.5-5.0 ft). Swell Direction: 211 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri (7/5) building to 2.3 ft @ 16 secs (3.5-4.0 ft) holding all day. Swell fading on Sat (7/6) from 2.2 ft @ 16 secs (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 214 degrees

 

New Zealand Gale
A new gale started building south of New Zealand on Fri AM (6/28) producing 35-40 kt northwest winds over a large area and seas building to 25 ft at roughly 54S 155E aimed at the Ross Ice Shelf. By evening a solid fetch of 45-50 kt west-southwest winds were building aimed northeast with seas building from 37 ft at 55.5S 161E (SCal 218 degs and just barely shadowed by Tahiti, NCal 216 degs and unshadowed by Tahiti). On Sat AM (6/29) a broad fetch of 45-50 kt southwest winds were in-place pushing east with seas building to 42 ft at 56S 178.5E aimed east (SCal 212 degs and shadowed, 210 degs NCal and just barely shadowed). In the evening fetch is to hold at 45 kts from the southwest over a broad area with seas 43 ft at 56.5S 173W aimed east-northeast (SCal 208 degrees and becoming unshadowed, NCal 207 degs and shadowed). On Sun AM (6/30) the gale is to be easing east and aimed much better to the north with 35 kt south-southwest winds over a solid area and seas 39 ft at 55S 160W (SCal 203 degs and unshadowed, NCal 202 degs and shadowed). The gale is to track east in the evening with 30-35 kt south-southwest winds over a large area and 34 ft seas at 49.5S 151.5W aimed northeast (SCal 201 degs and unshadowed, NCal 197 degs and unshadowed). The gale is to fade fast on Mon AM (7/1) with 35 kt south winds over a tiny core and seas mainly from previous fetch fading from 31 ft at 46S 144.5W aimed northeast. In the evening the gale is to fade out with seas fading from 28 ft at 50S 133W aimed northeast. Something to monitor.

Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Fri (7/5) building to 2.1 ft @ 20 secs late (4.0 ft). Swell holding on Sat (7/6) at 2.1 ft @ 18 secs early (3.5-4.0 ft with sets to 4.5 ft). Swell Direction: 190 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat (7/6) building to 1.0 ft @ 23-24 secs late (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 202 degrees

North CA: Expect the first signs of this swell hitting buoys late Sat (7/6) with period 24 secs. Swell Direction: 200 degrees

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.

Windswell Outlook
On Wednesday (7/3) in California the gradient is to hold with north winds 20-25 kts over all of North and Central CA waters early and then fading some in the north and becoming focused over Pt Conception producing raw local northwest windswell. No east fetch of interest is expected relative to Hawaii resulting in no east windswell there. But possible hurricane swell is to be radiating west (see Tropical Update above). Thursday (7/4) the gradient in CA is to be fading with north winds 15-20 kts over all of North and Central CA producing junky local northwest windswell at exposed breaks. No easterly fetch is forecast east of Hawaii. Fri (7/5) the gradient is to hold over all of North and Central CA at 20 kts resulting in more junky local northwest windswell at exposed breaks. No east fetch is expected relative to Hawaii. Sat (7/6) the gradient is to lift north relative to CA with north winds 20+ kts off the North CA coast and 15 kts off the Central CA coast resulting in smaller and cleaner north windswell there. No easterly fetch is forecast for Hawaii with no windswell expected.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast. But the models are suggesting a developing gale pattern setting up in the West and Central South Pacific.

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

Nino 3.4 Temps Continue Crashing - El Nino Appears to be Fading

The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).

Overview: La Nina started developing in early 2016, but westward displaced and generally weak. And by March 2017, it was gone with suspicious warming developing along South America and over the Galapagos to a point south of Hawaii. By May the atmosphere returned to a neutral configuration but then in July east anomalies started building in the KWGA and did not stop, with cold water upwelling over the the Nino1.2 and 3.4 areas, indicative of La Nina. A double dip La Nina was in control and continued through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then rebuilt late in Feb associated with Kelvin Wave (#3). But as of early June warm water was fading and the outlook did not favor El Nino come Fall.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Summer 2019 = 5.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: Assuming the PDO has moved to the warm phase and that weak borderline El Nino condition continue , and assuming a weak ocean-atmospheric coupling holds and ocean temperature anomalies in Nino3.4 hold in the +0.8 deg range, there is good probability for slightly enhanced storm production in the South Pacific during the Northern Hemisphere Summer time months. There is slightly increased intensity in number of storm days and storm intensity, resulting in slightly increased odds for larger than normal swell, with increased duration and higher than normal period. This should be significantly better than the past 2 Summer seasons.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (6/28) 5 day average winds were solidly from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific holding over the Central Pacific but weaker in the West Pacific/KWGA. Anomalies were light easterly over the East equatorial Pacific turning neutral over the Central Pacific and holding over the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (6/29) a mixture of weak west and east anomalies were in pockets over the KWGA. The forecast is for light east anomalies to slowly build in the core of the KWGA near 150E with weak west anomalies over the dateline and filling the entire East Pacific through the end of the model run on 7/6. There is to be no clearly defined enhanced support for storm development for the next 7 days.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: (6/28) An neutral MJO to weak Active MJO pattern was indicated over the KWGA today. The statistic model indicates a neutral MJO pattern is to take hold 5 days out and continue for the next 2 weeks but with a weak Inactive MJO pattern setting up in the extreme West Pacific with it's core over the Maritime Continent days 10-15. The dynamic model suggests the same pattern but with a Inactive Phase fully moving into the KWGA at day 10 and holding into day 15. The 2 models are in sync other than at the 2 week point.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (6/29) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase exceedingly weak in the West Pacific and it is forecast to remain there and weaken to no perceptible status at day 15. The GEFS model suggests the same thing but with the Active phase moving quickly to the east while crashing and rebuilding moderately in the Indian Ocean 2 weeks out.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model): (6/29) This model depicts a very weak Active Phase over the East Pacific today and is to push east into Central America on 7/14. A modest Inactive MJO signal is to track over the West Pacific 7/11 pushing east up to Central America at the end of the model run 8/8. No clearly defined MJO pattern is to follow in the KWGA from 7/29 and beyond.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/28) This model depicts no discernible MJO signal in the KWGA today with a finger of weak east anomalies in the Western KWGA but with moderate west anomalies surrounding it in the Eastern KWGA. The MJO is to remain suppressed through the end of the model run on 7/26 but with west anomalies full filling the KWGA from 7/13 till the end of the model run focused on the dateline.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/29) This model depicts a weak Active Phase peaking over the KWGA with weak west anomalies in the KWGA. The Active Phase and modest westerly anomalies are to build east filling the KWGA through 7/15. After that a neutral pattern is to set up 7/16-7/31 but with weak west anomalies holding in the KWGA. After that another weak Active Phase is forecast 8/3 holding through the end of the model run on 9/26 with weak to modest west anomalies holding. The low pass filter indicates a low pressure bias with 1 contour lines in control of the KWGA centered on the dateline reaching east to California. This single remaining contour line is to hold till 8/25 then migrate west to 140E on 9/3. At the same time a new thin and small low pressure contour is to materialize over the Indian Ocean 8/17 holding through the end of the model run. This model indicates that a weak El Nino pattern is to fade in late August and not return, moving towards the Indian Ocean. Basically we are moving from a pattern biased towards El Nino to one biased towards ENSO neutral if not very weakly La Nina.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (6/29) Today in the far West Pacific water temps are 30 degs over a small and shrinking area centered at 172E while the 29 deg isotherm was retrograding at 164W today. The 28 deg isotherm line was retrograding at 149W. The 24 deg isotherm previously pushed into Ecuador at 30 meters down, but retrograded to 105W last week, then again pushed into Ecuador down 3 meters on 6/25 and was holding today. Anomaly wise, gentle warm anomalies are filling the entire subsurface Pacific at +1 degs from the surface to 125 meters down (deepest on the dateline). But there is a clear sense that warm subsurface water is retreating from the South American Coast. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 6/22 indicates warm water from Kelvin Wave #3 and #4 have formed a defined but shrinking pocket of warm water under the Central equatorial Pacific from 160E to 115W at +1.5 degs above normal, and shrinking in coverage. A small pocket of cool water was drawing up from depth to the surface in the east at 100W. A previous stream of warm water flowing into the far West Pacific from the Maritime Continent was gone. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (6/22) No positive anomalies are indicated over the equatorial Pacific any more with negative anomalies at -5 to -10 cms depicted over the Galapagos pushing west on the equator. From this data it looks like the remnants of Kelvin Wave #3/#4 were dissipating in the west and a cooler regime was starting to develop in the far east.

Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (6/28) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate very weak warm anomalies were steady from 20S to 20N on the equator from Peru and Central America the dateline. Cooling developed along Peru last week, faded some earlier this week but were still present. And warming south of the equator in the Central Pacific was fading also. Overall previous strong warming over the East Equatorial Pacific was fading to weak to modest strength today. There is some weak indication of a El Nino but nothing solid.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (6/28): A broad area of very weak cooling was along Peru up to the equator and with weak pockets from Ecuador west to 140W and building west suggesting some signs of a developing La Nina like pattern (or at least a strong Inactive Phase of the MJO). This is a significant change from weeks previous.
Hi-res Overview: (6/27) Warmer than normal water was from Ecuador west over the Galapagos 20 degrees north of the equator and 10 degrees south of it continuing west of there to the dateline. But there is an area of developing cooling along and just off the Peruvian Coast and in pockets around the Galapagos west to 110W. And warm temps south of the equator from Peru west to 140W were quickly fading. El Nino appears to be in retreat.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/29) Today's temps were steady and cooler than normal at -0.268 degs, about on par with the trend 2 weeks previous at -0.508 degs, and that down from a peak of +1.235 on 5/27.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(6/29) Today temps were crashing, dropping from +0.655 on 6/19 to -0.057 today and effectively neutral.

Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (6/29) The model indicates temps were +0.65 degs in early June and are falling steadily per the model. The forecast indicates temps down to +0.20 degs in late July but are to rebuild to +0.40 in early November then slowly fading to 0.0 degs Jan 1 2020, rising to +0.35 degs in late March. Non of this is believable. We suspect we're heading to a dead neutral if not weak La Nina pattern by the late Fall.
IRI Consensus Plume: The June 2019 Plume depicts temps are at +0.60 degs in June, and are to hold in the +0.70 range into November, then fading slightly to +0.65 in February 2020. See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad) (6/29): The daily index was negative today at -25.87, negative the last 14 days. The 30 day average was falling at -10.29 today suggesting a building Active MJO. The 90 day average was falling some at -6.59, suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern biased towards El Nino (for now).
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): (April) +0.34, March +1.0, Feb +1.29, Jan +0.193. It is approaching El Nino territory but still indicted mostly ENSO neutral conditions.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The PDO is weakly positive, even though La Nina is in play.
Per NOAAs index recent values: June 2017 +0.21, July -0.50, Aug -0.62, Sept -0.25, Oct -0.61, Nov -0.45, Dec -0.13, Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan -0.23, Feb -0.55 This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO, even with La Nina, because the warm PDO appears to be dampening the effects of La Nina. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): June 2017 +0.79, July +0.10, Aug +0.09, Sept +0.32, Oct +0.05, Nov +0.15, Dec +0.50, Jan +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

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External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave


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Local Interest

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

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http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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