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BUOY ROUNDUP
On Tuesday, June 29, 2021 :

• Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai): Seas were 3.7 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 2.0 ft @ 14.9 secs from 185 degrees. Water temp 80.1 degs (Pearl Harbor 233), 80.4 (Lani 239).
• Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 2.6 ft @ 9.9 secs with swell 2.1 ft @ 8.7 secs from 325 degrees. Water temp 79.3 degs.
• Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.8 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 2.5 ft @ 9.1 secs from 262 degrees. Wind at the buoy was northeast at 4-6 kts. Water temperature 65.1 degs, 67.6 (Topanga 103), 64.2 degs (Long Beach 215), 68.2 (Del Mar 153), 65.5 (Pt Loma 191). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 5.1 ft @ 6.5 secs from 312 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.5 ft @ 15.7 secs from 211 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 2.0 ft @ 15.1 secs from 194 degrees. Southward at Point Loma (191) swell was 1.9 ft @ 14.0 secs from 202 degrees.
• Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 7.3 ft @ 6.7 secs with swell 3.9 ft @ 9.5 secs from 290 degrees. Wind at the buoy (012) was northwest at 14-18 kts. Water temp 56.5 (029), 59.7 degs (SF Bar 142) and 62.2 degs (Santa Cruz 254).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Tuesday (6/29) North and Central CA had waves at waist to maybe chest high and warbled and mush and pretty gutless with modest northwest winds producing bump on top under June Gloom conditions. Protected breaks were waist to chest high on the sets and a bit warbled and mushed and soft. At Santa Cruz surf was waist high or so and clean and lined up but inconsistent. In Southern California/Ventura waves were thigh to waist high and lined up on the sets and real clean with decent form with no wind. Central Orange County had set waves at shoulder to head high on the sets and lined up with good form but with a little bit of warble and texture on it. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at chest high with head high peaks and lined up with decent form and fairly clean but with some intermixed warble and pretty weak but consistent. North San Diego had sets waves at waist high and and lined up and clean but weak. Hawaii's North Shore had some leftover waist high sets and real clean but weak and inconsistent. The South Shore was still getting swell with set waves chest to near head high and lined up and peeling and clean but inconsistent. The East Shore was getting no swell with waves thigh high or less and warbled from modest easterly trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (6/29) California was seeing fading remnants swell from a small gale that developed in the Southeast Pacific on Wed (6/16) producing 36 ft seas aimed east if not southeast. And Hawaii was getting more swell from a small system that developed under New Zealand Tues-Wed (6/23) producing up to 29 ft seas tracking northeast. That swell is also weakly tracking towards California. A better gale one formed in the Central South Pacific Fri-Sat (6/26) with 41 ft seas aimed east. Swell is radiating north towards CA, Central and South America. A small secondary gale developed in the far Southeast Pacific on Sun-Mon (6/28) producing 32 ft seas aimed mostly east providing limited swell radiating northeast. A better storm developed under New Zealand lifting northeast Sun-Tues (6/29) with up to 36 ft seas aimed northeast. Some reasonable sized swell is possible. Remnants of that system are to redevelop in the Southeast Pacific on Thurs-Fri (7/2) producing up to 34 ft seas aimed east. And another system to follow over the South Central Pacific Sat-Sun with up to 40 ft seas aimed northeast. And maybe some smaller secondary gale energy to follow again over the Southeast Pacific on Mon (7/5). A steady swell pattern is expected with some larger embedded bumps for the foreseeable future.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (6/29) no swell producing fetch was occurring and no swell from previous fetch was in the water. But the tropics are holding some hope. See the Tropical Update below.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
On Thurs AM (6/24) Tropical Storm Champi was 900 nmiles south of Tokyo Japan tracking north with winds 45 kts. Champi continued on this heading while building with winds to 60 kts in the evening heading north and then to 65 kts on Fri AM (6/25) and holding into Sat AM positioned 500 nmiles south of Tokyo. Then after that Champi started to weaken while making a slowly but steady turn to the northeast. On Sun AM (6/27) winds were down to 35 kts with Champi positioned 500 nmiles south-southeast of Tokyo heading north-northeast. By Mon AM (6/28) Champi was down to weak tropical storm status accelerating off to the northeast 600 nmiles east of Misawa Japan (the north island). The GFS model has remnants of this system trying to develop in the Northwestern Gulf of Alaska on Tues (6/29) but not producing seas even to 18 ft. But on Thurs (7/1) this system is to be stationary in the Northwestern Gulf theoretically producing 30 kt west winds with seas to 16 ft at 48.5N 176W aimed east for 18 or so hours. Perhaps some windswell could result for HI and CA.

California Nearshore Forecast

• Wed (6/30) northwest winds are forecast at 20 kts for North CA early and 5-10 kts for Central CA fading some in the afternoon for North CA at 15-20 kts 10 kts for Central CA and 20 kts off all of the Pacific Northwest. Windswell building slightly.
• Thurs (7/1) northwest winds are forecast at 20-25 kts for North CA early but otherwise 10 kts nearshore down into Central CA and holding all day up north but building to near 15 kts for Central CA. North winds are to still be 15-20 kts off the Pacific Northwest. Windswell holding.
• Fri (7/2) northwest winds to be 20 kts for Cape Mendocino down to Bodega Bay early and 10-15 kts down to Pt Conception and fading through the day to 10 kts everywhere in the afternoon. Northwest winds 20 kts off the Pacific Northwest. Windswell fading some.
• Sat (7/3) northwest winds to be 15-10 kts for all of North and Central CA early holding all day. Windswell fading out.
• Sun (7/4) northwest winds to be 15 kts over Cape Mendocino but otherwise 10 kts south of there. Northwest winds building to 15 kts over Pt Conception in the afternoon but otherwise holding. No windswell production forecast.
• Mon (7/5) northwest winds to be 15 kts for Cape Mendocino and Pt Conception early and 10 kts in between early building to 15 kts over all of North and Central CA in the afternoon and 20 kts for Pt Conception. No real windswell expected.
• Tues (7/6) northwest winds are forecast at 15 kts for all of North CA and 20-25 kts focused near Pt Conception and building all locations in the afternoon.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 0, 0, 0, and 0 inches respectively.

Freezing level 14,000+ ft with no change forecast.

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Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level (more here - scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!

 

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Tuesday (6/29) the influential southern branch of the jet was producing a trough under and pushing up the east coast of New Zealand being fed by 110 kts winds offering good support for gale development. East of there then jet was falling southeast hard forming a ridge that extended east over the remainder of the South Pacific in the California swell window actively suppressing support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours the New Zealand trough is to push east while fading on Wed (6/30) offering no support for gale development then re-energizing some on Thurs (7/1) over the Southeast Pacific being fed by 100 kt winds starting to again support gale development. Beyond 72 hours starting Fri (7/2) remnants of the New Zealand trough are to continue moving east over the Southeast Pacific being fed by 110 kt winds offering some good support for gale development. And a tertiary trough is to form in that area Sat-Mon (7/5) being fed by 130 kts winds lifting northeast and joining the northern branch of the jet on the eastern edge of the California swell window offering good support for gale development there. At that time a solid ridge is to be building over the Southwest Pacific shutting down support for gale development from under New Zealand to 145W.

Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (6/29) the last remnants of swell was hitting California originating from a secondary fetch developed over the Southeast Pacific (see Southeast Pacific Gale below). A weak gale formed south of New Zealand with swell from that system hitting Hawaii and weakly bound for CA (see Weak New Zealand Gale below). And a gale developed in the Central South Pacific after that with 41 ft seas aimed east producing swell pushing towards CA down into South America (see Central South Pacific Gale below). Secondary fetch from that system developed in the Southeast Pacific producing small swell radiating north towards CA (see Secondary southeast Pacific Gale below). And then a stronger system formed under New Zealand lifting north targeting mainly HI (see New Zealand Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours remnants of the New Zealand Gale (see below) are to start redeveloping over the Southeast Pacific on Thurs AM (7/1) producing 40-45 kt southwest winds and seas building from 32 ft at 58S 139W aimed northeast. In the evening 40 kt west southwest winds are to be pushing east with 34 ft seas at 56S 128W aimed east-northeast. On Fri AM (7/2) 40 kt west winds are to be racing east out of the CA swell window with 31 ft seas still in the window at 54S 120W aimed east. Some minimal swell to result for CA and better for South America.

 

 

Southeast Pacific Gale
Secondary fetch associated with the South Central Pacific Gale (above) developed Tues PM (6/15) in the Central South Pacific with 50 kt west winds and seas building. Fetch built Wed AM (6/16) from 50-55 kts from the west but with fetch falling southeast with seas 38 ft at 53.25S 135.75W aimed east. In the evening 50 kt southwest winds were aimed northeast while falling south with seas 36 ft at 56.5S 122.5W aimed east moving to the eastern edge of the North CA swell window. On Thurs AM (6/17) 50 kt southwest fetch was in the deep Southeast Pacific producing 31 ft seas at 57.5S 119W aimed east. The gale is to fall south from there and of no interest. Some more hope.

Southern CA: Residuals fading on Tues (6/29) from 1.4 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 195-197 degrees

North CA: Residuals fading on Tues (6/29) from 1.4 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 195-197 degrees

 

Weak New Zealand Gale
On Mon PM (6/21) a gale is to start building southwest of New Zealand producing 40 kt southwest winds with seas building from 26 ft at 59.25S 158.5E aimed northeast. On Tues AM (6/22) southwest winds were tracking northeast at 35-40 kts over a broader area with seas building to 28 ft at 57.25S 171E aimed northeast. In the evening fetch was fading from 35 kts southeast of New Zealand with seas fading from 26 ft at 55.75S 176.5E aimed northeast. Residual fetch persisted into Wed AM (6/23) with 30-35 kt southwest winds over a modest area aimed northeast with 26 ft seas fading at 59.5S 171W aimed east-northeast. The gale dissipated from there. Small swell for HI is possible.

Oahu: Swell continues on Tues (6/29) at 1.5 ft @ 15 secs (2.0 ft). Dribbles on Wed (6/30) fading from 1.2 ft @ 14-15 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 197 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival at sunset on Wed (6/30) building to 1.2 ft @ 17 secs (2.0 ft) mid-day. Swell building some on Thurs (7/1) to 1.6 ft @ 16 secs mid-AM (2.5 ft). Swell holding on Fri (7/2) at 1.8 ft @ 15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading on Sat (7/3) from 1.4 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 206 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival at sunset on Wed (6/30) building to 1.2 ft @ 17 secs (2.0 ft). Swell building some on Thurs (7/1) to 1.6 ft @ 16 secs late AM (2.5 ft). Swell holding on Fri (7/2) at 1.8 ft @ 15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading on Sat (7/3) from 1.4 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 205 degrees

 

Central South Pacific Storm
Another system developed in the deep Central South Pacific on Thurs PM (6/24) producing 55 kt south winds over a tiny area with the gale itself pushing east generating 29 ft seas at 58S 174W aimed east. On Fri AM (6/25) the gale lifted east-northeast producing 50-55 kt south winds aimed north with seas building to 38 ft at 58.5S 160W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch pushed east fast with southwest winds 50 kts over a building area with seas 40 ft at 58.5S 147.5W aimed northeast. On Sat AM (6/26) fetch was collapsing with 40 kt west winds and seas fading from 33 ft at 57.25S 136.5W aimed east. In the evening the gale was fading with 35-40 kts west winds and seas 31 ft at 55.5S 128W aimed northeast. The gale dissipated from there. More small swell is pushing northeast.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat (7/3) building to 1.2 ft @ 19 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell building slowly on Sun (7/4) to 1.5 ft @ 17-18 secs (2.5 ft). Swell peaking on Mon (7/5) at 2.0 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fading Tues (7/6) from 2.0 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Residuals on Wed (7/7) fading from 2.0 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 196 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat (7/3) building to 1.0 ft @ 20 secs later (2.0 ft). Swell building slowly on Sun (7/4) to 1.4 ft @ 17-18 secs (2.5 ft). Swell peaking on Mon (7/5) at 2.0 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fading Tues (7/6) from 2.0 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Residuals on Wed (7/7) fading from 1.7 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 196 degrees

 

Secondary Southeast Pacific Gale
Secondary fetch from the Central South Pacific Storm (above) developed Sun AM (6/27) in the far Southeast Pacific with 40-45 kt southwest winds over a tiny area with seas 28 ft near 58.5S 140W aimed east. In the evening fetch grew from 40-45 kts from the southwest with seas 33 ft at 55S 131.5W aimed northeast. On Mon AM (6/26) fetch was lifting northeast at 35-40 kts with seas 31 ft at 54S 123W aimed east-northeast. In the evening the gale faded with 30-35 kts southwest winds and seas 26-27 ft at 50S 118W moving east of the CA swell window after that. Some small swell to result for CA.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (7/6) at 1.6 ft @ 16-17 secs early (2.5 ft) holding through the day. Swell continues on Wed (7/7) at 2.0 ft @ 15 secs early (3.0 ft). Residuals on Thurs (7/8) holding at 2.1 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell gone after that. Swell Direction: 190 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (7/6) at 1.5 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell continues on Wed (7/7) at 1.8 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Residuals on Thurs (7/8) holding at 1.6 ft @ 14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell gone after that. Swell Direction: 189 degrees

 

New Zealand Gale
On Sun PM (6/27) a gale developed under New Zealand with 40-50 kt south wind and seas 31 ft at 57.5S 166.25E aimed north. On Mon AM (6/28) south winds were 40-50 kts just southeast of New Zealand with 36 ft seas at 54.5S 174E aimed north. In the evening south winds were 40 kts solid over a good sized area just southeast of New Zealand with 35 ft seas at 50S 179E aimed north. On Tues AM (6/28) south winds were 40 kts southeast of New Zealand with 31 ft seas at 46S 176W aimed north-northeast. In the evening 30-35 kt south winds are to be fading with 26 ft seas fading at 39S 175.75W aimed north. This system is to be gone after that with it's remnants tracking east. Swell is radiating northeast towards HI and CA.

Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Sun (7/4) at sunset at 1.0 ft @ 20 secs (2.0 ft). Swell building on Mon (7/5) to 2.1 ft @ 17-18 secs late AM (3.5-4.0 ft) and holding. Swell holding on Tues (7/6) at 2.2 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.5 ft). Swell fading on Wed (7/7) from 2.0 ft @ 14-15 secs early (3.0 ft). Residuals on Thurs (7/8) fading from 1.7 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Dribbles on Fri (7/9) fading from 1.6 ft @ 13 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 197 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Wed (7/7) building to 1.0 ft @ 19 secs later (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell building slowly on Thurs (7/8) to 1.4 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell holding on Fri (7/9) at 1.5 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Residuals on Sat (7/10) fading from 1.4 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 216 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Wed (7/7) building to 1.0 ft @ 19 secs later (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell building slowly on Thurs (7/8) to 1.5 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell holding on Fri (7/9) at 1.6 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5 ft). Residuals on Sat (7/10) fading from 1.4 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 215 degrees

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours yet another small gale is forecast developing over the deep South Central Pacific on Sat AM (7/3) producing 50 kt southwest winds and sea building from 30 ft at 61S 162W aimed east-northeast. In the evening a broad fetch of 50 kt southwest winds to to be lifting northeast with 37 ft seas at 57.75S 148.25W aimed northeast. On Sun AM (7/4) 50 kt southwest winds to be moving to the far Southeast Pacific producing 42 ft seas at 56.75S 136.25W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch is to be 50 kts pushing over the boundary of the South California swell window aimed northeast with 41 ft seas at 54.75S 120.5W aimed northeast. This system is to be east of the CA swell window after that. Something to monitor.

And yet another system is to be right behind in the far Southeast Pacific Mon-Tues (7/6) with 28-30 ft sea aimed northeast.

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

Kelvin Wave Eruption Continues Weakly near Ecuador - SOI Neutral and Stable
Summary - A combination of 2 Kevin Waves is weakly erupting near the Galapagos with a 3rd possibly developing in the west. The forecast suggests weak west anomalies holding west of the dateline for the next 3 months, but solid east anomalies east of there hinting at strong high pressure in the Gulf of Alaska this Fall.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: A double dip La Nina occurred through the Winter of 2017-2018. Warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In 2019, those warm waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that looked like the start of La Nina, with it fully developing into La Nina in July 2020. We continue in the place in March 2021, but with a Kelvin Wave sweeping east late in March possibly signaling the demise of La Nina.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST

Spring/Summer 2021 = 4.0/3.5 (California & Hawaii) Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It is assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 is on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state will set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But lingering effects of La Nina are forecast to continue over the Pacific for some time as the upper atmospheric circulation slowly transitions to an ENSO neutral state. This scenario tend to favor the Southeast Pacific, therefore favoring California over Hawaii. To counter that is the forecasted movement of the low pressure bias currently in-flight from the Maritime Continent to the West Pacific over the next 3 months. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a slightly less than normal swell production forecast. A somewhat reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected as compared to normal over the South Pacific during the early summer season, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by the Fall and early Winter of 2021/22, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The status of the PDO is not known, though it appears to be returning to at least a neutral state, rather than the warm phase as previously projected thereby having no significant positive or negative effect on the long term outlook.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (6/28) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific then moderate east over the Central Pacific and moderate over the KWGA. Anomalies were light east over the East equatorial Pacific then neutral over the Central Pacific and light east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (6/29) weak east anomalies were filling the KWGA. The forecast calls for more of the same with weak east anomalies holding and filling the KWGA through 7/3 then building to moderate strength focused more over the dateline through the end of the mode run on 7/6.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:  
OLR Models: (6/28) A moderate Inactive MJO pattern was indicated filling the KWGA today. The statistic model projects the Inactive Phase weakening slightly on day 5 then fading quickly on day 10 and gone on day 15 of the model run. The dynamic model projects the same thing.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (6/29) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was weak over North Africa today and is to track east to the Maritime Continent on day 15 at exceedingly weak status. The dynamic model suggests the Active Phase moving to the West Maritime Continent at weak status on day 15 of the model run.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (6/28) A moderate Inactive Phase (dry air) was indicated filling the Pacific today. It is to push east moving over the East Pacific and into Central America on 7/13 with a second weaker pulse of the Inactive Phase developing over the KWGA on 7/6 pushing east and fading over the Central Pacific on 7/18. The Active Phase is to finally be building over the KWGA on 7/23 moving to the Central Pacific at the end of the model run on 8/7.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/28) This model depicts no MJO signal present in the Pacific today with weak east anomalies filling the KWGA. The forecast indicates no discernible MJO signal present for the next month with weak west anomalies building over the KWGA 7/1 through 7/13. Then light east anomalies are to start building over the West KWGA on 7/10 and building in coverage while tracking east filling the KWGA by 7/19 and holding through the end of the model run on 7/26 through weakening in the far west.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/29 - using the 4th/latest ensemble member): Today no coherent MJO was present with a mix of east and west anomalies over the KWGA. The forecast indicates a weak Inactive MJO signal is to set up 7/1-8/8 with a mix of weak east and west anomalies in the KWGA 7/1-7/15 but with east anomalies taking the upper hand after that. Starting 7/31 a solid Active Phase of the MJO is to be filling the KWGA through 9/5 with moderate west anomalies filling the western 75% of the KWGA but with solid east anomalies setting up starting 7/21 from the dateline eastward and building into 8/8 at solid status and holding till about 9/20, then fading. After that a modest Inactive MJO pattern is forecast starting 9/1 but with west anomalies persisting through the end of the model run on 9/26. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias is in control over the Central Pacific (with one contour line) filling the eastern KWGA but a low pressure bias over the West KWGA filling the western 2/3rds of it to 165E. The high pressure bias was reaching east into the Southwest US. The high pressure contour line is to shift dramatically east to 130W on 7/2 holding through 8/8 then back-building west to the dateline if not 170E and holding. The single contour low pressure bias is to hold it's current position till 7/23, then quickly retrograding to 130E on 8/8 and effectively out of the Pacific becoming centered again over the Maritime Continent. This suggest a return to some flavor of a weak La Nina pressure pattern by the Fall. And this forecast has been stable for over a month now.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (6/29) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was steady at 180W and the 28 deg isotherm line was easing east to 154W. The 24 deg isotherm was stable pushing the whole way across the equatorial Pacific and was 100 meters deep at 140W and 30 meters deep in the east. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +1 deg C were in the West Pacific reaching east across the dateline to 150W suggesting a weak Kelvin Wave tracking east. Also +2 deg anomalies were filling the East Pacific from 135W and points east of there pushing to the surface at 115W and east of there indicative of a previous Kelvin Wave (actually 2) pushing into Ecuador. No cool anomalies were indicated. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 6/22 indicates much the same with a new Kelvin Wave pushing east to 145W and a previous Kelvin Wave (actually 2) pushing east from 135W into Central America. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (6/22) Sea heights are fading over the equator with readings 0 to +5 cms mainly in tiny pockets east of the dateline and a broader pocket west of the dateline. La Nina is gone but no clear large scale warming is occurring either. A neutral pattern was getting established.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (6/27) The latest images depict steadily warm water on the equator across the width of the Pacific and effectively contiguous with stronger warming along Ecuador and over the Galapagos and a little west of there. 2 Kelvin Waves were finally erupting. A area of weak warming was along Chile and Peru but broken up. A more cohesive pocket of warm water was along Central America up to Southern Baja. Overall this seems to indicate the late stages of La Nina transitioning to ENSO neutral.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (6/27): Pockets of weak cooling were along the equator from Ecuador west to 110W. Otherwise nothing outside the ordinary was occurring.
Hi-res Overview: (6/27) A distinct flow of warmer than normal water was on the equator tracking west from Ecuador to the dateline with secondary warming west of Central America. A weaker area of generic warm was west of Peru and Chile. A clear cool outflow was pushing from California southwest to the a point south of Hawaii. La Nina appears to be in retreat but not quite gone.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/29) Today's temps were on a steadily declining trend falling to -0.227 after peaking at +0.213 on 6/17, the highest since 3/16 when they briefly hit +0.714 degs. But in between they've been in the -0.75 range. The longterm trend has been stable.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/29) Today temps were rising up to +0.262 the highest in a year after peaking at +0.224 on 6/15. Previously they peaked at +0.085 on (6/1), beating the previous peak high of +0.040 on 5/3. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3. Temps have been on a steadily increasing trend.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (6/29) - Actuals per the model indicate temps have been steadily rising from early Nov at -1.25 degs up to -0.01 degs in mid-June. The forecast indicates temps holding at -0.05 degs into mid-July, then starting a steady decline falling to -0.80 degs in mid-Oct and holding to mid-Jan before rising to -0.45 degs in early Feb 2022. This model suggests a return of near La Nina conditions this fall, with an ENSO neutral trend returning in the deep Winter. There is no sense that El Nino will develop.
IRI Consensus Plume: The June 20, 2021 Plume depicts temps are at -0.10 degs today, and are to fade slowly -0.30 degrees in Sept and stabilizing there into December, then rising to +0.10 in later Jan 2022. Most models are suggesting we are nearly normal now and are to hold there into the early months of 2022.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator) (6/29): The daily index was rising at 0.77. The 30 day average was rising to -0.67 after falling to -3.36 on 6/22, the lowest in a year and beating the previous low on 6/14 of -2.08. It peaked at +19.51 on 1/14. The 90 day average was falling slightly to +1.43 after falling to it's lowest point in a year on 6/10 at +1.14. The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 on 2/23 (clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative every since, driven by the recent La Nina. As of May 2021 it was the most negative its been at -2.04 since sept 2012. Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'). It is more likely we are still in the cool phase of the PDO.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

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Powerlines

Jeff Clark

Inside Mavericks

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table