On Thursday (6/30) Northern CA surf was waist to chest high and unremarkable. Typical summer surf. South facing breaks were also waist to chest high. Central California was the same. Southern CA breaks from Santa Barbara to just north of LA were up to waist high. The LA area southward into Orange County was waist to chest high with best spots to near head high on the rare set. Southward to San Diego waves were waist to chest high. The North Shore of Oahu was flat. The South Shore was thigh high. The East Shore was waist high.
Swell #4S is all but gone in California and flatness descended upon Hawaii days earlier. Nothing of any real interest is on the charts for the next few days with windswell the best bet and isolated primarily to California's Central and North coasts. Further out the models suggest a decent storm forecast to traverse the South Pacific next week, but that's far from certain. If it happens some south swell is possible fro both Hawaii and California, but until then any little thing will have to do. See details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
At the jetstream level on Thursday (6/30) the jet was almost completely undefined (winds less than 60 kts) over the entire North Pacific other than a very mild trough approaching the dateline with peak winds maybe 100 kts over an infinitesimal area (animation here). Over the next 72 hours only a faint change in the energy level is expected as a mild trough builds over the dateline. In all, a very inactive pattern here.
At the surface today solid high pressure at 1028 mbs was centered 1200 nmiles west of California and northeast of Hawaii and ridging slightly into Washington. It filled the entire Eastern Pacific basin. A weak pressure gradient had developed along the North California coast with 25 kt winds in place over a small area there. A weak 988 mb low was in the Western Pacific tracking northeast towards the Aleutians Islands with no associated swell producing fetch (animation here). In general a mild pattern, but standard for the time of year. Over the next 72 hours no big change is forecast with the high continuing in the east at 1024 mbs but spreading some into the West Pacific while continuing to ridge into Washington.
More model data here
California Offshore Forecast
Thursday mornings local charts (6/30) indicate solid high pressure at 1028 mbs 1200 nmiles west of Pt Arena CA and ridging northeast into Washington state. A moderate to weak gradient had developed of Cape Mendocino with the models suggesting 25-30 kts north winds and the QuikSCAT satellite confirming winds at 30 kts over a tiny area there. This is to be the pattern for nearly all the the coming week with the fetch generally staying over outer waters from Pt Reyes southward in the mornings then pushing onshore in the afternoons. The high is to continue in some form pushing into Washington with 25-30 kts north winds continuing off the Cape and reaching up to 30 kts solid by Monday (7/4) and holding through next Thursday (assuming the models are right). Moderate windswell generation potential through the period for locations from Pt Reyes southward to Pt Conception, with only tiny energy wrapping into exposed breaks in Southern California.The highest risk for unfavorable early morning local winds to be Sunday through Tuesday.
The 5 Day wind forecast is now included with the surf & swell overview in the QuikCAST's.
On Thursday (6/30) the jetstream charts indicated a weak trough had set up in the southern branch of the jet east of New Zealand providing a little window for something to develop in at the surface. Otherwise a new ridge was building to it's east pretty much eliminating any chance for storm development from 150W eastward into Chile (animation here). Over the next 72 hours that trough is get washed out by a new ridge building in the southern branch of the jet under New Zealand and pushing south into Antarctica through the weekend. Strong winds are to be building in the northern branch under Tahiti to near 200 kts on Saturday (7/2) as a new trough starts to build and feed into this energy by Sunday (7/3), possibly setting the stage for surface level storm development.
At the surface today high pressure at 1024 mbs remained in control of the Southeast Pacific ridging strongly from Tahiti southeastward into the Amundsen Sea and southern Chile. A second high was over the Tasman Sea at 1032 mbs locking thing down there too. In between these two high was a 980 mb low pressure center just southeast of New Zealand and starting to develop (animation here). Over the next 72 hours there are two points of interest. First the gale east of New Zealand is to try and wind up Thursday evening into Friday AM (7/1) producing a fleeting 24 hour fetch of up to 45 kt winds aimed north well at Hawaii. 12 hours of 28 ft seas are to be generated positioned at 47S 175W, 4300 nmiles southwest of Hawaii, perhaps good enough for some decent summertime utility class swell for Hawaii in the 13-14 sec range but likely hardly noticeable for California.
Of greater interest is the first signs of a larger and stronger developing low due south of New Zealand on Sunday (7/3). In it's formative stages pressure is to be 960 mbs sitting just over the edge of the Ross Ice Shelf with 35 ft west winds barely reaching over the open waters of the deep South Pacific with 29 ft seas developing.
More model data here
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Thursdays upper level models (6/30) indicated that beyond 72 hours a weak trough is to set up in the Gulf of Alaska peaking Tuesday (7/5) with winds generally in the 110 kt range. No real potential depicted from this at the surface though.
At the surface high pressure is to continue off California producing the standard summertime Cape Mendocino gradient north winds through Thursday of next week (7/7). another weak low is to push off Japan tracking up the Kuril Islands to the Bering Sea around the periphery of high pressure dominating the grater Pacific Basin. Otherwise nothing of interest forecast.
Thursdays upper level models (6/30) indicated that beyond 72 hours the developing trough well under Tahiti is to open up more by Tuesday (7/5) with 190 kt winds still present in the northern branch of the jet, fueling any surface level low pressure development. The trough is to move east and out of the California swell window Wednesday (7/5) as it approaches southern Chile. Further west no clear signs of major troughing suggested, but neither is there any signs of a big ridge. This provides a glimmer of hope for an improving pattern very long term.
At the surface the new low south of New Zealand is forecast to develop in a trough over the Ross Ice Shelf with fetch pushing over exposed waters of the deep South Pacific. It's not til Tuesday (7/5) that anything of real interest is expected with the low hitting 968 mbs and developing a bit of a gradient with high pressure forecast east of New Zealand and riding up the southeastern face of the high. Winds forecast at 45-50 kts tracking east-northeast and 35 ft seas possible. This low is to fade some on Wednesday (7/6) with winds down to 40 kts and seas at 32 ft, but a second reinforcing low is forecast to be moving in fast from behind with 50 kt+ winds and 35 ft seas redeveloping as it merges with the leading low on Thursday (7/7).
Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) Update
On Friday (6/24) the Southern Oscillation Index dipped into the negative range at -12, the first time in 9 days. Readings of -14 to -24 were reported daily until today (Thursday 6/30) when they returned to near neutral levels +2.5. Trades which were a bit stronger than normal remain near slack/dead calm in the far Western Pacific extending east to nearly the dateline. Current modeled data suggest that another spurt of enhanced trades is possible through July 9th. This indicates no clear signs of an impending active phase of the MJO.
Details to follow...
4th Annual Jay Moriarity Memorial Paddleboard Race: On July 9 at New Brighton State Beach, Santa Cruz CA the fourth annual Jay Moriarity Memorial Paddleboard race will be held in honor of a great waterman and individual. Come out and see how fast you can go on Jay's turf. Long course, short course and youth races will be held. We will make boards available if you want to try it out. Profits benefit local Junior guards. Detailed information available here:
Tutorial on the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) Presented by Dr. Roland Madden: If you're interested in El Nino and the MJO, have a basic understanding of El Nino, and you have broadband connection, audio and Macromedia Flash installed, then the following presentation is a must see. Dr Madden present a great overview of how the MJO works. And there's nothing like hearing it straight from the founders mouth. Link here: http://meted.ucar.edu/climate/mjo/mjonav0.htm
Stormsurf Weather Models Updated Again: Yes, we've been at it again this weekend getting another batch of weather models running. Global coverage is now provided for jetstream forecasts and surface pressure and winds. Zoomed in data is also available for such locations as the Mentawai Islands to Western Australia corridor, Tahiti, South America, Europe and Norwegian Sea. So now you can get local wind forecasts for these and more locations with one click. Take a look here: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu.html
Read all the latest news and happenings on our News Page here
Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table