Monday, July 2, 2018
- Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance): Seas were 2.6 ft @ 15.4 secs with swell 1.1 ft @ 15.9 secs from 171 degrees.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 1.9 ft @ 14.7 secs with swell 1.2 ft @ 13.9 secs from 185 degrees. Wind at the buoy was southwest at 6-8 kts. Water temperature 65.3 degs. At Ventura (Buoy 111) swell was 1.0 ft @ 14.8 secs from 185 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.2 ft @ 13.4 secs from 213 degrees. At Camp Pendleton (043) swell was 1.5 ft @ 14.6 secs from 212 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.5 ft @ 15.2 secs from 195 degrees.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 6.0 ft @ 10.0 secs with northwest windswell 5.1 ft @ 9.4 secs from 327 degrees. Wind at the buoy was south at 4-6 kts. Water temp 55.0 degs.
See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Monday (7/2) in North and Central CA local north windswell was producing surf at waist to chest high and a bit warbled from south wind weak/mushed. Protected breaks were waist fairly clean but still soft and weak. At Santa Cruz surf was knee high and clean but very weak and unrideable. In Southern California up north surf was knee to thigh high and fairly clean but weak with light north texture running through it. In North Orange Co southern hemi swell was producing sets in the waist to maybe chest high range and lined up but weak and pretty textured from south wind. South Orange Country's best breaks had sets at shoulder to near head high on the sets and crumbled due to modest south texture driven by south winds. In North San Diego surf was waist to maybe chest high on the bigger sets and lined up and pretty textured from south wind. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore was tiny with sets knee to waist high and clean. The East Shore was getting no real east windswell with waves knee high and lightly chopped from modest east trades.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Monday (7/2) small southwest swell was still hitting California originating from a gale that developed Wed-Thurs (6/21) southeast of New Zealand lifting northeast with 33 ft seas aimed northeast. Weak swell was hitting Hawaii from the Tasman Sea and unremarkable. A weak gale is forecast in the Southeast Pacific on Mon (7/2) with 26 ft seas aimed northeast. A stronger gale is forecast Wed-Thurs (7/5) under New Zealand with 36-37 ft seas but all fetch is to be aimed east. So there's minimal hope. A building pattern targeting the Tasman Sea is to follow late week. And windswell is to continue till Wed (7/4) for CA and longer for Hawaii, possibly enhanced by Hurricane Fabio.
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Monday AM (7/2) no swell of interest was in the water nor being generated in the North Pacific other than local windswell.
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast other than windswell. But the general North Pacific Storm track is still remarkable active given the time of year, just not sufficient to result in surf.
California: On Monday (7/2) high pressure at 1034 mbs was 900 nmiles west of Southern Oregon ridging east still producing a pressure gradient between Cape Mendocino and Pt Arena with north winds there at 30-35 kts with the eddy flow reaching north to nearly Pt Arena. Windswell holding with decent conditions down into Central CA. By Tues (7/3) the gradient is to be fading through the day with 35 kt north winds dropping to barely 25 kts late still over North CA with the eddy flow continuing but weakening from Bodega Bay southward. Windswell fading through the day in Central CA. Wednesday (7/4) the gradient and north winds are to be gone with northwest windswell small to nonexistent as low pressure pushes south from off the coast of Washington generating a separate fetch of north winds at 25 kts possibly generating some windswell of it's own reaching the North and Central Coast on Thurs (7/5). Thurs (7/6) weak low pressure is to be just off the North CA coast resulting in no local windswell being produced. See QuikCASTs for details.
Hawaii: Monday (7/2) east-to northeast fetch associated with high pressure 1200 nmiles north of Hawaii is to build in coverage and velocity later in the day extending from CA the whole way again to the Islands at 15 kts and 20 kts from California to within 600 nmiles of Hawaii. Windswell to start building along east facing shores. On Tues (7/3) a fully developed fetch of 15-20 kt easterly winds is to extend from California west to a point just 100 nmiles north of the Hawaiian Islands and beyond. Good odds for sideband windswell radiating into all the Hawaiian Islands but without the core of the fetch actually impacting the Islands. Wednesday (7/4) the fetch is to be fading in coverage limited to the area within 900 nmiles east of the Islands at 15-20 kts from the east-northeast pushing into the Islands resulting in more but limited east windswell. Thurs (7/5) east fetch is to be fading and sinking in coverage with odds for windswell production fading out. But theoretically Hurricane Fabio is to be tracking towards Hawaii from 1500 nmiles out interacting with high pressure north of Hawaii generating a fetch of 15 kt east winds all the way into Hawaii possibly producing more local east windswell. See QuikCASTs for details.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Tropical Storm Fabio: On Monday (7/2) Fabio was 600 nmiles south of Cabo San Lucas Mexico with winds 65 kts tracking west northwest and expected to strengthen with winds to 95 kt late. On Tues (7/3) Fabio is to be 600 nmiles southwest of Cabo tracking northwest peaking with winds 105 kts (121 mph) at 15N 116.5W or 1150 nmiles south of Pt Dume CA on the 175 degree path. Assuming swell is being generated with period of 15 secs, swell arrival in Southern CA would be Thurs AM (7/6). Rough estimates suggest swell of 5 ft @ 15 secs (7.5 ft faces). This system is to be steadily fading from there down to 90 kts on Wed (7/4) and 60 kts on Thurs (7/5) while accelerating and moving out of the California swell window. Some small swell is to also be produced for exposed east shores of the Hawaiian Islands starting Sat (7/7) peaking in the afternoon at 3.9 ft @ 17 secs (6.5 ft) from 80 degrees. Something to monitor.
Typhoon Prapiroon was 120 nmiles southwest of the southern tip of Japan Mon AM (7/2) tracking north-northeast and is forecast to make it through the gap between Japan and Korea while fading to tropical storm status on Tues AM (7/3). This system is to recurve northeast and fade from there while accelerating, passing over extreme North Japan late on Wed (7/4). Remnants of this system are theoretically to race northeast and move into the Northwestern Gulf of Alaska on Sun (7/8) with seas building to 20 ft. There are no odds of that actually occurring at this early date.
California Nearshore Forecast
On Monday AM (7/2) north winds were 30+ kts from Pt Arena northward with a weak eddy flow from Pt Arena southward. Tues (7/3) the gradient is to still be in place producing north winds at 35 kts from Pt Arena northward with the weak eddy flow (south winds) south of there, but both are to start collapsing late afternoon. Wednesday AM (7/4) north winds to be 10 kts along the North and Central Coast fading to near calm from the west midday as low pressure moves towards the area from the north. Thurs (7/5) light winds area forecast over the state, then building from the north at 15 kts for Pt Conception later. Friday (7/6) light north winds 10 kts area forecast for North CA early building to 15-20 kts later and up to 25 kts for Pt Conception. Saturday the regular summer gradient returns with north winds 20 kts for all of North and Central CA and 25 kts for Morro Bay down to Pt Conception. Sunday (7/8) north winds continue at 20-25 kts for the whole North and Central coast and continuing into Mon (7/9) though lighter as the day progresses from Monterey southward to Pt Conception.
On Mon (7/2) a trough is to be developing southeast of New Zealand being fed by 100 kts winds pushing north and tracking east into Tues (7/3) offering some support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours starting Wed (7/4) the trough is to start getting pinched off and no longer offering any support for gale development. A ridge is to be over the far Southeast Pacific preventing gale development there. Another trough is forecast building under New Zealand on Wed (7/4) but entirely over the Ross Ice Shelf pushing east and reaching clear of the Ice line on Thurs (7/5) over the deep Central Pacific but only being fed by 100 kts winds and not offering much to support gale formation. Also a new ridge is to be building west of the that trough under New Zealand, suppressing gale development potential there as well. If anything the southern branch of the jetstream is to become weak and directionless and that is to hold through Thurs (7/5). Beyond 72 hours stating Fri (7/6) a generalized ridge is to set up over the South Pacific and holding into Mon (7/9) offering no support for gale development.
On Saturday (6/30) small swell from a gale that developed southeast of New Zealand was fading in California (see Southwest Pacific Gale below). And a small system developed in the Tasman Sea pushing filtered energy towards Hawaii (see Tasman Sea Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours starting Sun PM (7/1) a small weak gale started to develop in the Central Pacific producing a fetch of 35 kt southwest winds resulting in a small area of 25 ft seas at 50S 149W. Fetch is to continue in coverage Mon AM (7/2) at 35 kts from the southwest with seas to 26 ft at 44S 135W aimed east-northeast. Additional 35 kt southwest fetch is forecast in the evening generating a larger area of 27 ft seas at 44S 127W aimed northeast. This system is to be tracking east Tues AM (7/3) while moving out of the SCal swell window with southwest winds at 40 kts and seas 28 ft at 42S 118W aimed northeast. Low odds of meaningful swell resulting targeting California. Better odds for Central America.
Of more interest is a broad gale forecast developing south of New Zealand on Tues AM (7/3) with 40 kt southwest winds and seas building from 34 ft at 58S 155E (217 degs CA) and shadowed by New Zealand relative to HI. In the evening southwest fetch is to build to 40-45 kts with seas building to 37 ft at 57.5S 165E. 213 degrees CA and unshadowed for NCal but shadowed by Tahiti for SCal. Swell also unshadowed for HI (194 degrees). On Wed AM (7/4) fetch is to loose coverage but hold velocity at 40-45 kts with seas 37 ft at 59S 174E (193 degs HI) 208 degs NCal 210 degs Scal and shadowed by Tahiti. This gale is to be fading fast in the evening with southwest fetch fading from 35-40 kts and seas mainly from previous fetch fading from 33 ft at 57S 176W (206 degs CA and shadowed). Something to monitor.
Southwest Pacific Gale
On Tues PM (6/19) a modestly broad fetch of 40 kt southwest winds started developing just south of New Zealand tracking northeast with seas building. On Wed AM (6/20) winds built to 45 kts solid aimed northeast with seas building to 33 ft at 58S 175W 9208 degs CA and shadowed by Tahiti). In the evening fetch was racing east-northeast and fading from 40 kts with seas 30 ft at 54.5S 162W aimed east-northeast (204 degrees and unshadowed in SCal). On Thurs AM (6/21) secondary fetch was fading from 30-35 kts from the northeast with seas fading from 26 ft at 50S 162W. In the evening no fetch or seas of interest are forecast. Something to monitor.
Southern CA: Swell fades on Mon (7/2) from 1.9 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Dribbles on Tues (7/3) at 1.5 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 208 degrees
North CA: Swell fading Mon (7/2) from 1.5 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 208 degrees
Tasman Sea Gale
A gale moved into the Tasman Sea on Sat AM (6/23) with 29 ft seas at 43.5S 150.5E aimed northeast. It tracked east in the evening with 29 ft seas at 47.5S 155.5E and then fell southeast on Sun AM (6/24) with 29 ft seas at 50.5S 165E. Limited energy pushing east of New Zealand on Sun PM (6/24) with seas 25 ft at 50S 170E, then dissipated from there. Limited swell possible for Fiji and Hawaii.
Hawaii: Swell fading on Mon (7/2) from 1.3 ft @ 14-15 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Also swell from the east side of New Zealand arriving later building to 1.5 ft @ 15-16 secs late (2.0-2.5 ft). On Tues (7/3) swell up to 2.0 ft @ 14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 215 degrees turning to 195 degrees
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.
California: Friday (7/6) the California pressure gradient is to try and stir but limited to Pt Conception producing north winds there 25 kts maybe making something for Southern CA. That gradient is to build in size on Sat (7/7) with 20 kts north winds up too Cape Mendocino with the core still over Pt Conception at 25 kts. Windswell likely limited to Central and Southern CA.More of the same is forecast on Sun (7/8) then lifting north some on Mon (7/9).
Hawaii: More easterly fetch to continue on Fri (7/6) with 15-20 kt east winds extending from Fabio 1300 nmiles east-northeast of Hawaii and then 1000 nmiles east-northeast of Hawaii on Sat (7/7) with easterly fetch holding at 15-20 kts in between. Windswell to be generated the whole time. On Sun (7/8) easterly fetch is to be fading from 15 kts with Fabio fading 800 nmiles east-northeast of Hawaii with 30 kt northeast winds in it's north quadrant targeting Hawaii. Windswell still being generated. Fetch and Fabio are to fade away on Mon (7/9).
Beyond 72 hours on Sun (7/8) a gale is to be building south of the Tasman Sea with a solid area of 40 kts southwest winds targeting up into the Tasman Sea with seas 35 ft at 50S 160E in the evening. This system is to be moving under New Zealand Mon AM (7/9) with 40-45 kt southwest winds and 35 ft seas at 50S 165E and shadowed for all by New Zealand. In the evening in the evening fetch is to be fading from 40 kts from the southwest with seas fading from 36 ft at 49S 175E. Something to monitor.
Another stronger system is theoretically projected tracking south of Tasmania on Mon PM (7/9).
More details to follow...
Equatorial Warm Pool Continues Building - ESPI Near Zero
The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).
Overview: La Nina started developing in early 2016, but westward displaced and generally weak. And by March 2017, it was gone with suspicious warming developing along South America and over the Galapagos to a point south of Hawaii. By May the atmosphere returned to a neutral configuration but then in July east anomalies started building in the KWGA and have not stopped, with cold water upwelling over the the Nino1.2 and 3.4 areas, indicative of La Nina. A double dip La Nina was in control and continued through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and was building over equatorial waters in early June, suggesting the demise of La Nina and possibly turning towards El Nino.
LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Summer 2018 (California & Hawaii) = 4.0
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast:
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of Fri (7/1) 5 day average winds were solidly from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific then weakening some starting on the dateline and modest easterly over the Kelvin Wave Generation Area. Anomalies were mostly neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and light easterly in pockets over the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (7/2) Moderate east anomalies were filling the KWGA from the dateline west. The forecast suggests moderate east anomalies are to hold through 7/3 then start tracking east and out of the KWGA by 7/5 with weak west anomalies building in a small pocket near the dateline and backfilling to 150E at the end of the model run on 7/9. Still east anomalies are to be holding on the dateline then. In short, an Inactive/Dry MJO signal looks to be tracking east but not giving up through the end of the model run.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:
OLR Models: (7/1) A neutral MJO signal was filling the KWGA. The statistical model depicts a neutral MJO signal to continue for the next 2 weeks. The dynamic model depicts the same thing. The models are in sync.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (7/2) The ECMF model depicts the Active Phase of the MJO was weak over the Central Indian Ocean and is to track steadily east for the next 15 days, reaching the East Maritime Continent 15 days out and moderate in strength. The GEFS model depicts a variant on the same theme.
40 day Upper Level Model: (7/2) This model depicts an Inactive/Dry MJO signal was over the East Pacific. It is to track east fading over Central America 7/17. A weak version of the Active/Wet Phase is to develop in the West Pacific today easing east to the East Pacific on 8/6. A neutral pattern is to follow in the West Pacific on 7/27 pushing to the Central Pacific at the end of the model run on 8/11.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (7/1) This model depicts west anomalies building strong at 165E on 7/5 and expanding in coverage while loosing velocity filling the KWGA 7/9 then fading some but not giving up, with a light westerly anomaly pattern in control over the KWGA through 7/29.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (7/2) This model depicts the Inactive Phase of the MJO was over the KWGA but with a neutral wind pattern in control other than easterly anomalies in the far west KWGA reaching east to 140E. The Inactive Phase is to hold through 8/2 but with west anomalies building strong for a few days centered at 175E on 7/5 even though the Inactive Phase is to be in control, likely driven by a Rossby Wave. Westerly anomalies to continue thereafter. The Active Phase is to start building 8/6 and strong, holding through 9/15 with west anomalies building solid in the KWGA and strong 8/17-9/10 indicative of a Westerly Wind Burst (WWB). The Inactive Phase is to start building on 9/12-9/29 but with west anomalies holding in the KWGA, just weaker than previously. The low pass filter indicates a low pressure bias is fully in control of the KWGA reaching east to 145W and forecast to hold if not ease east to 135W on 7/21 and 125W at the end of the model run and building from 2 contour lines to 3 solidly starting 7/7 and holding thereafter. This is good news for the coming Fall-Winter season. The high pressure bias is limited to an area south of California and shrinking at the end of the model run and moving inland over California. The La Nina bias is gone. The atmosphere and ocean are slowly becoming coupled and should fully reach that state 3 months after the start of the transition or by 8/8 (low pressure bias officially filled the KWGA starting on 5/8) in a more favorable configuration to support storm production in the Pacific.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (7/2) Today in the far West Pacific water temps are 30 degs reaching east to 168E. The 28 deg isotherm line is stationary at 148W today. It was stationary on the dateline last winter, then started moving east on 5/15 to 165W, then to 160W on 5/22 then to 154W on 6/19 and to 150W on 6/24 from the surface to 75 meters deep. The 24 deg isotherm was stable at 115 meters deep at 140W and 75 meters deep at 120W rising to 25 meters into Ecuador. Anomaly wise in the East Pacific, warm waters from a Kelvin Wave are focused in the East Pacific at depth. Warm anomalies at +1.0 deg C were moving east from the far West Pacific and building at 135W and points east of there at +3.0 degs down 100 meters pushing and reaching east past the Galapagos. These waters are breaching the surface from 135W and points east of there. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 6/27 depicts a river of warm water pushing east from the West Pacific with a large Kelvin Wave embedded in to starting at 145W building to +4.5 degs extending unbroken to the east to Ecuador and breaching the surface between 100W-145W. No residual cool water from La Nina are indicated. And more warm water was pushing east from 140E reaching over the dateline and joining the existing Kelvin Wave. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (6/27) Positive anomalies were solid from the Maritime Continent over the West Equatorial Pacific at +5 cms reaching east to the Ecuador with no breaks and anomalies +5 cm over that entire area. No negative anomalies were indicated. The La Nina cool pool is gone.
Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (7/1) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate a shrinking area of cool anomalies along the immediate coast of Peru and Chile as compared to days past. But of more significance was a building area of warm water erupting on the oceans surface on the equator from the Galapagos west to 160W, strongest at 100W. This area was fully coherent and almost completely filling the equator from 90W to the dateline 3 degs north and south of the equator. A broad area of generic warming was also filling the area south of Mexico and building in coherency out to the dateline. The remnants of the La Nina cool pool were south of the equator between 115W-170W and south of 4S and all but gone.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (7/1): Pockets of warming were scattered along the equator from Ecuador to the dateline and building some compared to the last report in 2 pockets over the Galapagos and at 100W. A couple of pockets of cooling were interspersed but weakening as compared to days past. Neutral temps were off the Peruvian coast.
Hi-res Overview: (7/1) An area of cool water was present along Chile and Peru. Otherwise warm water was building on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos and west from there to the dateline from 4S up to 20N and building in coherence. The only cool water was in the fading remnant pocket from La Nina limited to an area south of the equator starting at 4S between 110W-165W and steadily loosing coverage.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (7/2) Today's temps were falling some at -1.067, down from -0.428 on 6/7, up from -0.819 on 5/22, and that down from a recent peak rising to +0.459 on 5/13. This is part of a larger rising trend that started 4/10 indicative of the collapse of La Nina. Overall temps had been steadily marching upwards since late December.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (7/2) Today temps were steadily rising today at +0.490 up from +0.344 on 6/15. It appears the trend is continuing to move warmer, the first time in over a year. Previously temps were -0.266 on 6/2, -0.427 on 5/12 after having reached up to -0.254 degs on 5/1. Temps have been steadily rising since 3/27 when they were down at -1.2 degs.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (7/2) The forecast calls for a steady increase from here forward with temps pushing up to +0.45 degs on July 1 (confirmed - see above) and rising in early Oct to +1.25 degs and to +1.50 degs in Nov then slowly fading from there but still above the +1.0 range into March 2019. This suggests that perhaps El Nino is to build through the Summer and Fall of 2018. Most other models are also suggesting a possible turn to weak El Nino conditions by late Fall.
IRI Consensus Plume: The mid-June Plume depicts temps at +0.3 degs in late June and are to slowly rise from here forward, to +0.6 in August and +0.8 in October and +1.0 in January holding there. See chart here - link. It looks like La Nina is fading out and a weak El Nino might develop. The CFSv2 is in the low end of that pack.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (negative is good, positive bad) (6/30): The daily index was falling today at 1.85. The 30 day average was rising slightly today at -5.97 suggesting the Inactive Phase of the MJO was fading. The 90 day average was falling some at -0.63, the first time it has been negative in a year suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern was building in the atmosphere. This is expected for a month more before falling into steady negative territory by mid August.
ESPI (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): (7/20) Today the index was rising slightly at -0.09, the highest it's been in a year. Recent points of interest in reverse chronological order are: -1.04 on 6/5, -0.70 on 5/20, -0.60 on 5/17, -0.36 on 5/11 and -0.38 on 5/10, -0.35 on 4/26, -1.02 on 4/5, -1.13 on 3/27. The trend suggests La Nina is all but gone. This index is a forerunner of what happens in the ocean by 2-3 months in developing El Nino and La Nina situations.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The PDO is weakly positive, even though La Nina is in play.
Per NOAAs index recent values: April 2017=+0.53, May=+0.29, June=+0.21, July= -0.50, Aug= -0.62, Sept = -0.25, Oct= -0.61, Nov = -0.45, Dec= -0.13, Jan 2018=+0.29, Feb= -0.10, Mar= -0.51, April = -0.85, May =-0.61. This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO, even with La Nina, because the warm PDO appears to be dampening the effects of La Nina. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): Jan 2017 = +0.77, Feb = +0.70, Mar = +0.74, April=+1.12, May=+0.88, June=+0.79, July=+0.10, Aug=+0.09, Sept = +0.32, Oct=+0.05, Nov = +0.15, Dec = +0.50, Jan +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar = -0.05. No negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table