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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Tuesday, July 9, 2019 4:46 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
3.3 - California & 3.0 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 7/8 thru Sun 7/14

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

New Zealand Swell Peaking in CA
2 More Queued Up

BUOY ROUNDUP
On Tuesday, July 9, 2019 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/ Buoy 239 (Lanai) Seas were 5.0 ft @ 11.8 secs with swell 3.1 ft @ 11.8 secs from 174 degrees.
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 4.2 ft @ 9.9 secs with swell 2.6 ft @ 9.3 secs from 174 degrees.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.5 ft @ 17.2 secs with swell 2.2 ft @ 16.6 secs from 214 degrees. Wind at the buoy was west at 4 kts. Water temperature 65.7 degs. At Harvest (Buoy 071) primary swell was 3.2 ft @ 16.9 secs from 194 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 2.4 ft @ 17.3 secs from 204 degrees. At Camp Pendleton (043) swell was 3.8 ft @ 17.4 secs from 216 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 3.3 ft @ 17.2 secs from 193 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 4.0 ft @ 18.2 secs with swell 3.5 ft @ 17.5 secs from 198 degrees. Wind at the buoy (013) was northwest at 8-10 kts. Water temp 49.8 degs (013) and 54.7 degs (042).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Tuesday (7/9) in North and Central CA southern hemi swell was producing waves at chest high on the sets and lined up and sweeping up the beach with light winds and clean conditions with only light texture on top. Protected breaks were flat and clean. At Santa Cruz surf was head high to 1 ft overhead on the sets and clean but with top breaks to 3 ft overhead and clean and lined up. In Southern California/Ventura southern hemi swell was producing waves at up to head high and lined up and clean. In North Orange Co southern hemi swell was solid producing set waves at 1 ft overhead and lined up up and sweeping up the beach overwhelming beach breaks with clean conditions. South Orange Country's best summertime breaks were 1-2 ft overhead and lined up with light texture on it making it slightly crumbled. North San Diego had surf at head high on the sets and real lined up if not nearly closed out and pretty textured from west winds. Hawaii's North Shore was thigh high and crumbled with northerly texture on it. The South Shore was still getting New Zealand swell with set waves chest to head high and clean and lined up but a little on the weak side. The East Shore was getting Hurricane Barbara windswell with waves head high and lined up but nearly chopped from east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (7/9) in California swell from yet Another New Zealand Gale was peaking with decent surf along the entire coast. In Hawaii the same New Zealand swell was still hitting but far smaller mixed with swell from what was Hurricane Barbara. The southern hemi swell originated from a broad gale that developed south of New Zealand while tracking east-northeast Fri-Mon (7/1) with up to 42 ft seas. Another smaller gale formed southeast of New Zealand Thurs-Fri (7/5) with up to 37 ft seas aimed northeast then redeveloped over the Central and Southeast Pacific Sat-Sun (7/7) generating up to 36 ft seas aimed east. That swell is tracking northeast. And yet another gale developed Sun-Mon (7/8) with up to 38 ft seas aimed northeast. Quite a nice little pattern is occurring. But beyond no swell producing weather systems are forecast.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast other than local windswell (see below).

Windswell Outlook
On Tuesday (7/9) low pressure was just off the Pacific Northwest cutting off any high pressure relative to California resulting in slack winds 10 kts or less over CA waters offering no windswell production potential. For Hawaii east winds from Barbara were 15 kts over all the Islands fading to 10 kts later and turning southeast as the system moves west of the Islands. No windswell expected to result. Wednesday (7/10) no windswell producing fetch is forecast for California as low pressure circulates along the Pacific Northwest Coast. No windswell is expected for Hawaii either with only scattered pockets of east winds at 15 kts east of the Islands. Thursday (7/11) north winds to be 15+ kts mainly over Central CA no offering any windswell production. Light east trades to be east of Hawaii offering nothing. On Fri (7/12) north winds to be building in coverage over North and Central CA at 15-20 kts offering limited short period windswell production potential. Another low pressure system is forecast tracking east through the Gulf of Alaska too. Hawaii to have scattered pockets of east with at 15 kts offering only bare minimal support for east windswell production.

 

  North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical weather systems of interest are being monitored at this time.

California Nearshore Forecast
On Tues (7/9) light northwest winds are forecast 10 kts for all of North and Central CA. Wednesday (7/10) no real change is forecast except for north winds at 15 kts over Pt Conception later. Thurs (7/11) north winds to be building from 15-20 kts early for Pt Conception reaching north to Pt Arena at 15 kts later. Fri (7/12) north winds to be 15-20 kts for North and Central CA early and 20 kts solid for all of North and Central CA late afternoon. Sat (7/13) north winds to be 20-25 kts for all of North and Central CA. Sun (7/14) the gradient is to be weaker early with north winds 15+ kts for North CA and 20 kts south of Monterey Bay building to 20+ kts everywhere later. Monday (7/15) north winds to be 20-25 kts for all of North and Central CA. On Tues (7/16) north winds to be 15+ kts over North CA and 20 kts for Central CA south of Monterey Bay.

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts).

 

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Tuesday (7/9) a pre-existing trough was southeast of New Zealand but was weakening quickly no longer offering support for gale formation while a huge ridge pushed hard south into mainland Antarctica starting at 140W and points east of there completely suppressing support for gale development there. Over the next 72 hours starting Wednesday (7/10) the jet is to continue weak and starting to fall southeast under New Zealand producing an anemic ridging pattern there while remnants of the aforementioned trough pushes east moving to the far Southeast Pacific on Fri (7/12) but weak and not supporting gale formation. Beyond 72 hours starting Sat (7/13) the ridge is to be holding over the Southwest Pacific pushing south to 72S shutting down gale production there but then rising up into a trough over the far Southeast Pacific feeding a trough there with 110 kts winds offering some support for gale development there. That trough is to slowly push east and holding together into Tues (7/16) being fed by 110 kt winds pushing north offering good support for gale development but moving east of the Southern CA swell window.

Surface Analysis  
Another solid gale traversed the Southwest and Central Pacific and swell from that one is fading in Hawaii and peaking in California now (see New Zealand Gale below). And yet another small gale developed under New Zealand (see Another New Zealand Gale below). And after that yet another gale tracked up the east coast of New Zealand (see Final New Zealand Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.

 

New Zealand Gale
A new gale started building south of New Zealand on Fri AM (6/28) producing 35-40 kt northwest winds over a large area and seas building to 25 ft at roughly 54S 155E aimed at the Ross Ice Shelf. By evening a solid fetch of 45-50 kt west-southwest winds were building aimed northeast with seas building from 37 ft at 55.5S 161E (SCal 218 degs and just barely shadowed by Tahiti, NCal 216 degs and unshadowed by Tahiti). On Sat AM (6/29) a broad fetch of 45-50 kt southwest winds were in-place pushing east with seas building to 41 ft at 56S 178.5E aimed east (SCal 212 degs and shadowed, 211 degs NCal and just barely shadowed). In the evening fetch held at 45 kts from the southwest over a broad area with seas 42 ft at 57S 170W aimed east-northeast (SCal 206 degrees and unshadowed, NCal 205 degs and shadowed). On Sun AM (6/30) the gale was easing east and aimed much better to the north with 35-40 kt south-southwest winds over a solid area and seas 38 ft at 55S 160W (SCal 203 degs and unshadowed, NCal 201 degs and shadowed). The gale tracked northeast in the evening with 30-35 kt south-southwest winds over a large area and 34 ft seas at 50.5S 151W aimed northeast (SCal 201 degs and unshadowed, NCal 198 degs and unshadowed). The gale faded fast on Mon AM (7/1) with 30-35 kt south winds over a tiny core and seas mainly from previous fetch fading from 30 ft at 48S 144W aimed northeast (197 degs SCal, 195 degs NCal). In the evening the gale faded out with seas fading from 26 ft at 50S 133W aimed northeast. Swell is in the water tracking northeast.

Hawaii: A secondary pulse is possible on Tues (7/9) building to 2.2 ft @ 13 secs (3.0 ft) early. Swell Direction: 190 degrees moving to 175 degrees

Southern CA: Swell holding early Tues (7/9) at 3.0 ft @ 16-17 secs (4.5 ft with sets to 5.5 ft). Wednesday (7/10) swell is to be fading from 2.6 ft @ 15 secs (4.0 ft). Residuals on Thurs (7/11) fading from 2.0 ft @ 14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Dribbles on Fri (7/12) dropping from 1.5 ft @ 13 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 202 degrees

North CA: Swell holding early Tues (7/9) at 2.8 ft @ 16-17 secs (4.5 ft with sets to 5.5 ft). Swell fading on Wed (7/10) 2.4 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell slowly dropping on Thurs (7/11) from 1.9 ft @ 14 secs (2.5 ft). Nothing left after that. Swell Direction: 200 degrees

 

Another New Zealand Gale
Yet another gale developed south of New Zealand on Thurs AM (7/4) producing 45-50 kt southwest winds and seas building from 33 ft just off the northern edge of the Ross Ice Shelf at 61S 176.5E. In the evening the gale lifting northeast with 45 kt southwest winds and seas building to 37 ft at 60.5S 1705W (207 degs SCal and not shadowed, 206 degs NCal and shadowed by Tahiti). The gale raced east on Fri AM (7/5) with 40 kts west winds producing 32 ft seas at 56S 164 aimed east-northeast (203 degs SCal and not shadowed, 202 degs NCal and shadowed). In the evening fetch rebuilt with 45 kt west winds aimed east and seas fading to 31 ft at 55S 162W aimed east-northeast (204 degs SCal and not shadowed, 202 degs NCal and just barely shadowed). This gale significantly rebuilt Sat AM (7/6) with 40-45 kt southwest winds and seas building to 34 ft at 51S 147.58W aimed northeast (197 degs SCal and not shadowed,196 degs NCal and unshadowed by Tahiti). In the evening the gale pushed east with 35 kts southwest winds over a large area with 40-45 kts southwest winds embedded in it with seas 37 ft at 51S 130.5W aimed east-northeast (187 degs SCal, 185 degs NCal). Fetch is to fade from 30-35 kts Sun AM (7/7) with seas fading from 34 ft at 50S 120W and no longer of interest (182 degs SCal, 179 degs NCal). Possible swell radiating northeast over a broad area.

Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (7/11) building to 1.4 ft @ 20 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell building some through the day on Fri (7/12) reaching 2.1 ft @ 17 secs early afternoon (3.5 ft). Swell fading on Sat (7/13) dropping from 2.0 ft @ 15-16 secs early (3.0 ft). Residuals on Sun (7/14) fading from 1.6 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 187 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri (7/12) evening pushing 1.3 ft @ 21-22 secs late (2.5 ft). Swell building on Sat (7/13) to 2.9 ft @ 19 secs at sunset (5.5 ft with sets to 7.0 ft). Swell to hold on Sun (7/14) at 3.1 ft @ 17-18 secs (5.0-5.5 ft with sets to 6.5 ft). Swell fading some on Mon (7/15) from 2.6 ft @ 16 secs early (4.0 ft with sets to 5.0 ft). Swell fading Tues (7/16) from 2.0 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 187-207 degrees, focused on 197 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri (7/12) at sunset with period 22+ secs but not rideable. Swell building on Sat (7/13) to 2.2 ft @ 20 secs at sunset (4.5 ft with sets to 5.5 ft). Swell to hold on Sun (7/14) at 2.5 ft @ 18 secs early (4.5 ft with sets to 5.5 ft). Swell fading on Mon (7/15) from 2.3 ft @ 16-17 secs (4.0 ft with sets to 5.0 ft). Nothing meaningful to follow. Swell Direction: 185-202 degrees focused on 196 degrees

 

Final New Zealand Gale
Yet another gale developed south of New Zealand on Sat AM (7/6) with 40-45 kt southwest winds and seas building from 33 ft at 59.5S 173.5E aimed east. This was just a primer gale serving only to rough up the oceans surface there. In the evening a new broad fetch of 40+ kt south-southwest winds built south of New Zealand with seas building quickly from 34 ft at 53S 166E aimed northeast (218 degs SCal and unshadowed by Tahiti, 217 degs NCal and unshadowed by Tahiti). The gale tracked northeast fast on Sun AM (7/7) with 40-45 kt southwest winds over a solid area and seas 38 ft at 50S 173.5E aimed northeast (218 degs SCal, 217 degs NCal). The gale continued lifting northeast in the evening with 40-45 kts southwest winds and seas 36 ft at 48S 179W aimed northeast (214 degs SCal and 213 degs NCal). The gale started pushing east and fading on Mon AM (7/8) with 40 kt west winds and seas 36 ft at 47.5S 166W aimed east-northeast (207 degs SCal and unshadowed, 204 degs NCal and shadowed). The gale is to fade from there in the evening with seas dropping from 32 ft at 47.5 154.5W. This system dissipated from there.

Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Sat (7/13) building to 2.8 ft @ 19 secs late(5.0-5.5 ft). Swell holding on Sun (7/14) at 3.1 ft @ 17 secs early (5.0 ft). Swell fading on Mon (7/15) from 3.0 ft @ 15 secs (4.5 ft with sets to 5.5 ft). Swell fading Tues (7/16) from 2.4 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 194 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon (7/15) building to 1.5 ft @ 19-20 secs (3.0 ft). Swell building on Tues (7/16) to 2.3 ft @ 17-18 secs (4.0 ft with sets to 5.0 ft). Swell Direction: 214-218 degrees

North CA: Swell arrival expected on Mon (7/15) to 1.6 ft @ 20 secs (3.0 ft). Swell building on Tues (7/16) to 2.6 ft @ 17-18 secs (4.5 ft with sets to (6.0 ft). Swell Direction: 213-217 degrees

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.

Windswell Outlook
On Sat (7/13) low pressure is to be dissipating in the Western Gulf having no impact. Meanwhile high pressure is to build some off Central CA producing north winds at 20-25 kts limited from Pt Arena southward producing windswell for mainly Central CA. For Hawaii east winds to be 15 kts mainly targeting the Big Island offering some very limited windswell production there. On Sun (7/14) weak low pressure is to start moving towards British Columbia with north winds 20 kts over North and Central CA offering limited short period windswell production potential. Trades at 15 kts are to increase in coverage up to 700 nmiles east of Hawaii possibly generating windswell there. Monday (7/15) low pressure is to be moving into the Pacific Northwest with north winds 15+ kts for North CA and 20-25 kts down over Pt Conception making for windswell mainly for Central CA. Relative to Hawaii trades to 15 kts from the east up to 500 nmiles east of mainly the Big Island offering windswell potential there. On Tues (7/16) in California north winds to be limited to Pt Conception at 20-25 kts but with light winds 10-15 kts over North Ca offering little potential for windswell production. Trades for Hawaii to build in coverage at 15 kts up to 600 nmiles east of all Islands making for windswell production there.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

Equatorial Temps Continue Falling - La Nina Looking Likely

The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).

Overview: La Nina started developing in early 2016, but westward displaced and generally weak. And by March 2017, it was gone with suspicious warming developing along South America and over the Galapagos to a point south of Hawaii. By May the atmosphere returned to a neutral configuration but then in July east anomalies started building in the KWGA and did not stop, with cold water upwelling over the the Nino1.2 and 3.4 areas, indicative of La Nina. A double dip La Nina was in control and continued through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then rebuilt late in Feb associated with Kelvin Wave (#3). But as of early June warm water was fading and the outlook did not favor El Nino come Fall.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Summer 2019 = 5.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: Assuming the PDO has moved to the warm phase and that weak borderline El Nino condition continue, and assuming a weak ocean-atmospheric coupling holds and ocean temperature anomalies in Nino3.4 hold in the +0.8 deg range, there is good probability for slightly enhanced storm production in the South Pacific during the Northern Hemisphere Summer time months. There is slightly increased intensity in number of storm days and storm intensity, resulting in slightly increased odds for larger than normal swell, with increased duration and higher than normal period. This should be significantly better than the past 2 Summer seasons.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (7/8) 5 day average winds were solidly from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific fading some over the Central Pacific and weaker still over the West Pacific/KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific turning light westerly over the Central Pacific and building to modest westerly over the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (7/9) weak east anomalies were in the far West KWGA with a solid area of west anomalies on the dateline in the KWGA and east of there. The forecast is for light east anomalies to fade in the extreme Western KWGA by 7/11 but west anomalies mainly filling the KWGA and at moderate status through 7/13. After that very weak easterly anomalies are forecast in the far West KWGA and weak west anomalies are forecast on the Dateline through the end of the model run on 7/16. There is to be steady gentle support for storm development over the next 7 days.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: (7/8) A moderate Inactive MJO pattern was indicated over the West KWGA today. The statistic model indicates this Inactive MJO pattern is to hold 5 days out then fading some at day 10, then almost gone at day 15 of the model run. The dynamic model suggests the same pattern initially but with a Inactive Phase weakly over the West Pacific at day 10, then rebuilding to moderate strength and filling the KWGA at day 15. The 2 models are in sync other than the last 5 days.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (7/9) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase weak over Africa and it is forecast to collapse making no east headway over the next 2 weeks. The GEFS model suggests the same but with the Active Phase pushing east into the Central Indian Ocean.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model): (7/9) This model depicts a mixed neutral MJO-less pattern over the Pacific today, A very weak Inactive Phase is to appear in the far West Pacific on 7/19 traversing the equatorial Pacific and pushing east into Central America on 8/13. A modest Active MJO signal is to develop in the West Pacific 8/3 moving to the mid Pacific at the end of the model run 8/18.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (7/8) This model depicts a weak Active MJO signal over the East Pacific today with a broad area moderate west anomalies filling the KWGA focused on the dateline but with weak east anomalies in the extreme Western KWGA to 150E. The forecast has this pattern holding through the end of the model run on 8/5 but with west anomalies fading some in velocity but still moderate on the dateline.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (7/9) This model depicts a weak Active Phase fading over the KWGA with weak west anomalies mainly over the dateline and points east of there. The Active Phase and modest westerly anomalies are to hold over the dateline and east of there through 7/13, with the Inactive Phase weakly developing on 7/17 but with west anomalies holding in the KWGA. The Inactive Phase is to dissipate on 8/18 with west anomalies slowly building. After that an Active Phase is forecast moving over the KWGA on 8/17 holding through 9/29 with modest west anomalies filling the entirety of the KWGA. An Inactive MJO is to be moving into the KWGA at the end of the model run on 10/4-10/6 with west anomalies holding in the KWGA. The low pass filter indicates a low pressure bias with 1 contour lines in control of the KWGA centered on the dateline reaching east to California. This single remaining contour line is to hold till 9/3 then dissipating and migrating west to the Indian Ocean at the same time and holding through the end of the model run. This model indicates that a weak El Nino pattern is to fade in late August and not return, moving towards the Indian Ocean, symptomatic of La Nina. Basically we are moving from a pattern biased towards El Nino to one biased towards ENSO neutral if not La Nina.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (7/9) Today in the far West Pacific water temps are 30 degs over a building area reaching east to 175W while the 29 deg isotherm was steady at 162W today. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 150W. The 24 deg isotherm previously pushed into Ecuador at 30 meters down, but retrograded to 105W last week, then again pushed into Ecuador down 20 meters on 6/25 but retrograded again today at 105W. Anomaly wise, gentle warm anomalies are filling the entire subsurface Pacific at +1 degs from the surface to 150 meters down (deepest on the dateline). There is a clear sense that warm subsurface water was building under the dateline with it's core at +1 degs. And +2 degs anomalies were in another pocket pushing into Ecuador. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 7/2 indicates warm water from Kelvin Waves #3 and #4 have formed a shrinking pocket of warm water under the Central equatorial Pacific from 160E to 120W at +1.0 degs above normal, and shrinking in coverage. A small pocket of cool water was drawing up from depth to the surface in the east at 100W. A previous stream of warm water flowing into the far West Pacific from the Maritime Continent was gone. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (7/2) No positive anomalies are indicated over the equatorial Pacific with neutral anomalies over the bulk of the equator and a small area of negative anomalies at -5 cms was over the Galapagos.

Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (7/8) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate warm anomalies have vaporized from Peru up to Central America west to 120W. Weak warm anomalies were steady from 125W and points west of there to the dateline from 20S to 20N. Cooling is building along Peru and Chile and has been present for the past 2 weeks. There is no longer any indication of El Nino.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (7/8): A broad area of very weak warming was developing along Peru up to the equator. But stronger pockets of cooling were from Ecuador west to 130W interspersed with a few tiny pockets of warming water. Interestingly, a solid stream of cool water was streaming west off Africa on the equator. This is a significant change from weeks previous suggesting a developing cooling trend, and at a global level.
Hi-res Overview: (7/8) Warmer than normal water was from Ecuador west over the Galapagos 20 degrees north of the equator and 10 degrees south of it continuing west of there to the dateline. But there is an area of developing cooling along and just off the Peruvian Coast and in pockets around the Galapagos west to 120W. And warm temps south of the equator from Peru west to 140W were quickly fading to nearly neutral. El Nino appears to be in retreat.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (7/9) Today's temps were falling at -1.016 degs, the lowest since April 14. Otherwise the trend has had temps at -0.500 degs since early June, and that down from a peak of +1.235 on 5/27.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(7/9) Today temps were falling again down at +0.009 today. The trend has been downward since early June.

Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (7/9) The model indicates a cooling trend setting up with temps falling from +0.50 degs in June falling steadily to 0.0 degs in mid-July and down to -0.35 Sept 1 holding through Oct. Temps to fall again in Nov to -0.50 degs by Dec, then rising in Jan reaching 0.0 degs by late March 1. A weak La Nina pattern is to set up.
IRI Consensus Plume: The June 2019 Plume depicts temps are at +0.60 degs in June, and are to hold in the +0.70 range into November, then fading slightly to +0.65 in February 2020. See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad) (7/9): The daily index was negative today at -16.19, mostly negative the last 24 days. The 30 day average was falling at -9.31. The 90 day average was falling some at -8.51, suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern biased towards El Nino (for now).
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): (April) +0.34, March +1.0, Feb +1.29, Jan +0.193. It is approaching El Nino territory but still indicted mostly ENSO neutral conditions.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The PDO is weakly positive, even though La Nina is in play.
Per NOAAs index recent values: June 2017 +0.21, July -0.50, Aug -0.62, Sept -0.25, Oct -0.61, Nov -0.45, Dec -0.13, Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan -0.23, Feb -0.55 This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO, even with La Nina, because the warm PDO appears to be dampening the effects of La Nina. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): June 2017 +0.79, July +0.10, Aug +0.09, Sept +0.32, Oct +0.05, Nov +0.15, Dec +0.50, Jan +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

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External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave


Powerlinessurf Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest

Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for the week starting Sunday (7/7):
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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Stormsurf and Mavericks on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Mavericks Invitational Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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