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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Thursday, July 11, 2019 3:13 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
3.3 - California & 3.0 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 7/8 thru Sun 7/14

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

2 More New Zealand Swells Coming
Quiet Pattern To Follow

BUOY ROUNDUP
On Thursday, July 11, 2019 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/ Buoy 239 (Lanai) Seas were 3.9 ft @ 10.5 secs with swell 2.1 ft @ 11.0 secs from 175 degrees.
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 3.3 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 2.3 ft @ 12.5 secs from 321 degrees.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.2 ft @ 14.7 secs with swell 2.0 ft @ 14.3 secs from 194 degrees. Wind at the buoy was west at 2-4 kts. Water temperature 65.1 degs. At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 2.3 ft @ 14.9 secs from 195 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.6 ft @ 15.1 secs from 198 degrees. At Camp Pendleton (043) swell was 2.3 ft @ 15.1 secs from 213 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.0 ft @ 14.5 secs from 194 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 5.2 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 2.7 ft @ 14.6 secs from 193 degrees. Wind at the buoy (013) was northwest at 12-16 kts. Water temp 50.9 degs (013) and 55.4 degs (042).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Thursday (7/11) in North and Central CA southern hemi swell was producing waves at waist high on the sets and lined up but weak and warbled from weak local northwest wind with fog nearshore. Protected breaks were thigh to waist high and warbled and somewhat foggy. At Santa Cruz surf was maybe head high on the sets and clean and lined up but weaker than days past. In Southern California/Ventura southern hemi swell was producing waves at waist high and pretty crumbled and soft from local lump though wind was calm. In North Orange Co southern hemi swell was still present with set waves chest high or so and clean but again with lump in the water making for somewhat funky conditions. South Orange Country's best summertime breaks were shoulder to head high with some bigger peaks on the sets and slow and weak and soft but clean. North San Diego had surf at shoulder high on the sets and lined up but makeable and clean with light east winds but soft. Hawaii's North Shore was actually getting semi rideable surf with waves waist to maybe chest high and clean and lined up but slow. The South Shore was small with waves waist high or so and clean and inconsistent. The East Shore was flat to knee high and nearly chopped from moderate east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Thursday (7/11) in California swell from another New Zealand Gale was fading out with rideable surf along the entire coast but nothing more. In Hawaii no real swell of interest was hitting. Another smaller gale formed southeast of New Zealand Thurs-Fri (7/5) with up to 37 ft seas aimed northeast then redeveloped over the Central and Southeast Pacific Sat-Sun (7/7) generating up to 36 ft seas aimed east. That swell is poised to hit CA and Hawaii. And yet another gale developed Sun-Mon (7/8) with up to 38 ft seas aimed northeast and that swell is pushing towards Hawaii and CA. Quite a nice little pattern is occurring. But beyond no swell producing weather systems are forecast.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast other than local windswell (see below).

Windswell Outlook
On Thursday (7/11) north winds were 15 kts mainly over Central CA no offering any windswell production and forecast to build to 20 kts later but again limited to mainly Central CA. Light east trades to be east of Hawaii offering nothing. On Fri (7/12) north winds to be building in coverage up over North CA now and including Central CA at 15-20 kts offering limited short period windswell production potential. Another low pressure system is forecast tracking east through the Gulf of Alaska too. Hawaii to have scattered pockets of east with at 15 kts offering only bare minimal support for east windswell production. On Sat (7/13) high pressure is to build some off Central CA producing north winds at 20-25 kts limited from Pt Arena southward producing windswell for mainly Central CA. For Hawaii east winds to be 15 kts mainly targeting the Big Island offering some very limited windswell production there. On Sun (7/14) north winds are to be 20-25 kts over southern North CA and northern Central CA offering limited short period windswell production potential but building in coverage at 20-25 kts over all of North and Central CA later. Trades at 15 kts are to increase in coverage up to 700 nmiles east of Hawaii possibly generating windswell there.

 

  North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical weather systems of interest are being monitored at this time.

California Nearshore Forecast
On Thurs (7/11) north winds to be building from 15-20 kts early for Pt Conception reaching north to Cape Mendocino at 15 kts later. Fri (7/12) north winds to be 15-20 kts for North and Central CA early and 20 kts solid for all of North and Central CA late afternoon. Sat (7/13) north winds to be 20+ kts for all of North and Central CA. Sun (7/14) the gradient is to be smaller early with north winds 20 kts from Pt Arena south to Pt Conception building to 20+ kts later. Monday (7/15) north winds to be 20-25 kts for all of North and Central CA focused on Pt Conception. On Tues (7/16) north winds to be 20-25 kts over all of North and Central CA holding through the day. On Wed (7/17) north winds to be 20+ kts for all of North and Central CA early migrating only to North CA later. On Thurs (7/18) north winds to be 25 kts limited only to Cape Mendocino with perhaps an eddy flow setting up over Central CA.

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts).

 

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Thursday (7/11) a weak trough was in-place over the Central South Pacific being fed by only 80 kts winds offering little support for gale formation. A ridge was pushing south under New Zealand and also over the far Southeast Pacific actively suppressing gale production there. Over the next 72 hours starting Friday (7/12) the ridge is to build under New Zealand while the trough fades and moves to the Southeast Pacific offering no support for gale development. This same basic pattern is to hold into Sun (7/14) but with perhaps a little more energy developing in the trough with south winds to 110 kts perhaps offering some limited support for gale development in the far Southeast Pacific. Beyond 72 hours starting Mon (7/15) more of the same is forecast with the trough holding in the far Southeast Pacific into Tues (7/16) but with winds feeding the trough fading offering only limited support for gale development. And new wind energy is to start falling south under New Zealand feeding the ridge there completely shutting down support for gale development in the Southwest Pacific. A trough is to be developing south of Tasmania, but not reaching east into the Southwest Pacific yet. Maybe there's some hope long term.

Surface Analysis  
A solid gale traversed the Southwest and Central Pacific and swell from that one is well past it's prime and is fading in California now (see New Zealand Gale below). Another small gale developed under New Zealand (see Another New Zealand Gale below). And after that yet another gale tracked up the east coast of New Zealand (see Final New Zealand Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.

 

New Zealand Gale
A new gale started building south of New Zealand on Fri AM (6/28) producing 35-40 kt northwest winds over a large area and seas building to 25 ft at roughly 54S 155E aimed at the Ross Ice Shelf. By evening a solid fetch of 45-50 kt west-southwest winds were building aimed northeast with seas building from 37 ft at 55.5S 161E (SCal 218 degs and just barely shadowed by Tahiti, NCal 216 degs and unshadowed by Tahiti). On Sat AM (6/29) a broad fetch of 45-50 kt southwest winds were in-place pushing east with seas building to 41 ft at 56S 178.5E aimed east (SCal 212 degs and shadowed, 211 degs NCal and just barely shadowed). In the evening fetch held at 45 kts from the southwest over a broad area with seas 42 ft at 57S 170W aimed east-northeast (SCal 206 degrees and unshadowed, NCal 205 degs and shadowed). On Sun AM (6/30) the gale was easing east and aimed much better to the north with 35-40 kt south-southwest winds over a solid area and seas 38 ft at 55S 160W (SCal 203 degs and unshadowed, NCal 201 degs and shadowed). The gale tracked northeast in the evening with 30-35 kt south-southwest winds over a large area and 34 ft seas at 50.5S 151W aimed northeast (SCal 201 degs and unshadowed, NCal 198 degs and unshadowed). The gale faded fast on Mon AM (7/1) with 30-35 kt south winds over a tiny core and seas mainly from previous fetch fading from 30 ft at 48S 144W aimed northeast (197 degs SCal, 195 degs NCal). In the evening the gale faded out with seas fading from 26 ft at 50S 133W aimed northeast. Swell is in the water tracking northeast.

Southern CA: Residuals on Thurs (7/11) fading from 2.0 ft @ 14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Dribbles on Fri (7/12) dropping from 1.5 ft @ 13 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 202 degrees

North CA: Swell slowly dropping on Thurs (7/11) from 1.9 ft @ 14 secs (2.5 ft). Nothing left after that. Swell Direction: 200 degrees

 

Another New Zealand Gale
Yet another gale developed south of New Zealand on Thurs AM (7/4) producing 45-50 kt southwest winds and seas building from 33 ft just off the northern edge of the Ross Ice Shelf at 61S 176.5E. In the evening the gale lifting northeast with 45 kt southwest winds and seas building to 37 ft at 60.5S 1705W (207 degs SCal and not shadowed, 206 degs NCal and shadowed by Tahiti). The gale raced east on Fri AM (7/5) with 40 kts west winds producing 32 ft seas at 56S 164 aimed east-northeast (203 degs SCal and not shadowed, 202 degs NCal and shadowed). In the evening fetch rebuilt with 45 kt west winds aimed east and seas fading to 31 ft at 55S 162W aimed east-northeast (204 degs SCal and not shadowed, 202 degs NCal and just barely shadowed). This gale significantly rebuilt Sat AM (7/6) with 40-45 kt southwest winds and seas building to 34 ft at 51S 147.58W aimed northeast (197 degs SCal and not shadowed,196 degs NCal and unshadowed by Tahiti). In the evening the gale pushed east with 35 kts southwest winds over a large area with 40-45 kts southwest winds embedded in it with seas 37 ft at 51S 130.5W aimed east-northeast (187 degs SCal, 185 degs NCal). Fetch is to fade from 30-35 kts Sun AM (7/7) with seas fading from 34 ft at 50S 120W and no longer of interest (182 degs SCal, 179 degs NCal). Possible swell radiating northeast over a broad area.

Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (7/11) building to 1.4 ft @ 20 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell building some through the day on Fri (7/12) reaching 2.1 ft @ 17 secs early afternoon (3.5 ft). Swell fading on Sat (7/13) dropping from 2.0 ft @ 15-16 secs early (3.0 ft). Residuals on Sun (7/14) fading from 1.6 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 187 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri (7/12) evening pushing 1.3 ft @ 21-22 secs late (2.5 ft). Swell building on Sat (7/13) to 2.9 ft @ 19 secs at sunset (5.5 ft with sets to 7.0 ft). Swell to hold on Sun (7/14) at 3.1 ft @ 17-18 secs (5.0-5.5 ft with sets to 6.5 ft). Swell fading some on Mon (7/15) from 2.6 ft @ 16 secs early (4.0 ft with sets to 5.0 ft). Swell fading Tues (7/16) from 2.0 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.0 ft) and being overridden by new swell. Swell Direction: 187-207 degrees, focused on 197 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri (7/12) at sunset with period 22+ secs but not rideable. Swell building on Sat (7/13) to 2.2 ft @ 20 secs at sunset (4.5 ft with sets to 5.5 ft). Swell to hold on Sun (7/14) at 2.5 ft @ 18 secs early (4.5 ft with sets to 5.5 ft). Swell fading on Mon (7/15) from 2.3 ft @ 16-17 secs (4.0 ft with sets to 5.0 ft). Tues (7/16) swell fading from 1.8 ft @ 15 secs (2.5) ft and being overridden by new swell. Swell Direction: 185-202 degrees focused on 196 degrees

 

Final New Zealand Gale
Yet another gale developed south of New Zealand on Sat AM (7/6) with 40-45 kt southwest winds and seas building from 33 ft at 59.5S 173.5E aimed east. This was just a primer gale serving only to rough up the oceans surface there. In the evening a new broad fetch of 40+ kt south-southwest winds built south of New Zealand with seas building quickly from 34 ft at 53S 166E aimed northeast (218 degs SCal and unshadowed by Tahiti, 217 degs NCal and unshadowed by Tahiti). The gale tracked northeast fast on Sun AM (7/7) with 40-45 kt southwest winds over a solid area and seas 38 ft at 50S 173.5E aimed northeast (218 degs SCal, 217 degs NCal). The gale continued lifting northeast in the evening with 40-45 kts southwest winds and seas 36 ft at 48S 179W aimed northeast (214 degs SCal and 213 degs NCal). The gale started pushing east and fading on Mon AM (7/8) with 40 kt west winds and seas 36 ft at 47.5S 166W aimed east-northeast (207 degs SCal and unshadowed, 204 degs NCal and shadowed). The gale is to fade from there in the evening with seas dropping from 32 ft at 47.5 154.5W. This system dissipated from there.

Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Sat (7/13) building to 2.9 ft @ 19 secs late (5.0-5.5 ft). Swell holding on Sun (7/14) at 3.1 ft @ 17 secs early (5.0 ft). Swell fading on Mon (7/15) from 3.0 ft @ 15 secs (4.5 ft with sets to 5.5 ft). Swell fading Tues (7/16) from 2.3 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Residuals on Wed (7/17) fading from 1.6 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 194 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon (7/15) building to 1.5 ft @ 19-20 secs (3.0 ft). Swell building on Tues (7/16) to 2.3 ft @ 17-18 secs (4.0 ft with sets to 5.0 ft). Swell continues on Wed (7/17) at 2.6 ft @ 16-17 secs (4.0-4.5 ft with sets to 5.5 ft). Swell fading on Thurs (7/18) from 2.0 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 214-218 degrees

North CA: Swell arrival expected on Mon (7/15) to 1.6 ft @ 20 secs (3.0 ft). Swell building on Tues (7/16) to 2.6 ft @ 17-18 secs (4.5 ft with sets to 6.0 ft). Swell continues on Wed (7/17) at 2.6 ft @ 16-17 secs (4.0-4.5 ft with sets to 5.5 ft). Swell fading on Thurs (7/18) from 2.1 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 213-217 degrees

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.

Windswell Outlook
Monday (7/15) the usual summertime pressure gradient is to be holding producing north winds at 20 kts North Ca from Pt Arena southward and Central CA making for windswell focused on Central CA. Relative to Hawaii trades to be 15 kts from the east and building at up to 1000 nmiles east of mainly the Big Island offering windswell potential there. On Tues (7/16) in California north winds to be 20-25 kts for all of North and Central CA offering improved potential for windswell production. Trades for Hawaii to build in coverage at 15 kts extending from California to Hawaii offering good odds for windswell production. On Wed (7/17) the gradient is to start lifting north with north winds 20+ kts for all of North and Central CA early limited to North CA later at 20-25 kts offering decent odds for windswell production down into Central CA. For Hawaii trades to be solid at 15-20 kts up to 1800 nmiles east of all the Hawaiian Islands offering good potential for windswell along exposed east facing shores of all the Islands. On Thursday (7/18) north winds to be 20 kts limited to North CA waters and fading fast offering only limited windswell production for North and Central CA. For Hawaii trades to continue solid at 15-20 kts up to 900 nmiles east of all Islands offering continued potential for windswell production along east facing shores.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

Equatorial Temps Continue Falling - La Nina Possibly Building

The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).

Overview: La Nina started developing in early 2016, but westward displaced and generally weak. And by March 2017, it was gone with suspicious warming developing along South America and over the Galapagos to a point south of Hawaii. By May the atmosphere returned to a neutral configuration but then in July east anomalies started building in the KWGA and did not stop, with cold water upwelling over the the Nino1.2 and 3.4 areas, indicative of La Nina. A double dip La Nina was in control and continued through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then rebuilt late in Feb associated with Kelvin Wave (#3). But as of early June warm water was fading and the outlook did not favor El Nino come Fall.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Summer 2019 = 5.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: Assuming the PDO has moved to the warm phase and that weak borderline El Nino condition continue, and assuming a weak ocean-atmospheric coupling holds and ocean temperature anomalies in Nino3.4 hold in the +0.8 deg range, there is good probability for slightly enhanced storm production in the South Pacific during the Northern Hemisphere Summer time months. There is slightly increased intensity in number of storm days and storm intensity, resulting in slightly increased odds for larger than normal swell, with increased duration and higher than normal period. This should be significantly better than the past 2 Summer seasons.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (7/10) 5 day average winds were solidly from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific fading some over the Central Pacific and turning fully westerly over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific turning light westerly over the Central Pacific and building to strong westerly over the KWGA, at Westerly Wind Burst strength.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (7/11) solid west anomalies were in the core of the KWGA. The forecast is for those west anomalies are to quickly fade turning light 2 days out on 7/13 with weak west anomalies holding after that mostly filling the KWGA through the end of the model run on 7/18. There is to be steady gentle support for storm development over the next 7 days.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: (7/10) A weak Inactive MJO pattern was indicated over the far West KWGA today. The statistic model indicates this Inactive MJO pattern is to weaken 5 days out then gone at day 10, remaining non-existent at day 15 of the model run. The dynamic model suggests the same pattern initially with a Inactive Phase all but gone in the West Pacific at day 10, then rebuilding to moderate strength and filling the KWGA at day 15. The 2 models are in sync other than at day 15.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (7/11) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase exceedingly weak over Africa and it is forecast to remain that way while tracking east over the next 2 weeks to the East Indian Ocean. The GEFS model suggests the same thing.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model): (7/11) This model depicts a mixed neutral MJO-less pattern over the Pacific today, A very weak Inactive Phase is to appear in the far West Pacific on 7/28 traversing the equatorial Pacific and pushing east into Central America at the end of the model run on 8/20. A weak Active MJO signal is to develop in the West Pacific 8/5 moving to the mid Pacific at the end of the model run.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (7/10) This model depicts a weak Active MJO signal over the East Pacific today with a concentrated area of strong west anomalies fin the core of the KWGA with weaker west anomalies filling the KWGA. The forecast has weak to modest west anomalies holding mainly on the dateline through the end of the model run on 8/7 but with weak east anomalies developing in the far West Pacific 7/19 reaching east to 150E and holding through the end of the model run. There remains some support for gale development given the west anomaly pattern on the dateline.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (7/11) This model depicts a weak Active Phase fading over the KWGA with weak west anomalies mainly over the dateline and points east of there. The Active Phase and modest westerly anomalies are to hold over the dateline and east of there through 7/13, with the Inactive Phase developing on 7/17 but with west anomalies holding on the dateline. The Inactive Phase is to hold through 8/18 with east anomalies reaching east to 150E but weak west anomalies holding on the dateline. After that an Active Phase is forecast moving over the KWGA on 8/17 holding through 9/29 with modest west anomalies filling the entirety of the KWGA. An Inactive MJO is to be moving into the KWGA at the end of the model run on 10/1-10/8 with west anomalies holding in the KWGA. The low pass filter indicates a low pressure bias with 1 contour lines in control of the KWGA centered on the dateline reaching east to California. This single remaining contour line is to hold till 8/27 then dissipating and migrating west to the Indian Ocean at the same time and holding through the end of the model run while building in coverage. This model indicates that a weak El Nino pattern is to fade in late August and not return, moving towards the Indian Ocean, symptomatic of La Nina. Basically we are moving from a pattern biased towards El Nino to one biased towards ENSO neutral if not La Nina.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (7/11) Today in the far West Pacific water temps are 30 degs over a building area reaching east to 175W while the 29 deg isotherm was steady at 162W today. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 150W. The 24 deg isotherm previously pushed into Ecuador at 30 meters down, retrograded to 105W last week, then again pushed into Ecuador down 20 meters on 6/25 but retrograded again today at 107W. Anomaly wise, gentle warm anomalies are filling the entire subsurface Pacific at +1 degs from the surface to 150 meters down (deepest on the dateline). There is a clear sense that warm subsurface water was building under the dateline with it's core at +1 degs. And +2 degs anomalies were in another pocket pushing into Ecuador. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 7/7 indicates warm water from Kelvin Waves #3 and #4 have formed a small pocket of warm water under the Central equatorial Pacific from 160E to 120W at +1.0 degs above normal, and shrinking in coverage and shallow reaching down only 90 meters. A small pocket of cool water was drawing up from depth to the surface in the east at 100W. And cool water was filling the depths just under the remainder of the warm water pocket in the Central Pacific. A previous stream of warm water flowing into the far West Pacific from the Maritime Continent was gone. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (7/7) A small pocket of positive anomalies were building over the dateline at +5 cms reaching east to 160W. Otherwise no positive anomalies are indicated over the equatorial Pacific with neutral anomalies over the bulk of the equator and a small area of negative anomalies at -5 cms was over the Galapagos.

Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (7/10) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate warm anomalies are rebuilding weakly from Peru up to Central America west to 120W from 10S and point northward to Mexico. Stronger warm anomalies were steady from 135W and points west of there to the dateline from 20S to 20N. But cooler water was still present along Peru and Chile and has been present for the past 2 weeks. There is no longer any real indication of El Nino.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (7/10): A broad area of very weak warming was along Peru up to the equator. But strong pockets of cooling were from Ecuador west to 140W interspersed with a few tiny pockets of warming water. A solid stream of cool water previously streaming west off Africa on the equator is gone now. This is a significant change from weeks previous suggesting a developing cooling trend, and at a global level.
Hi-res Overview: (7/10) Warmer than normal water was from Ecuador west over the Galapagos 20 degrees north of the equator and 10 degrees south of it continuing west of there to the dateline. But there is an area of developing cooling along and just off the Peruvian Coast and in pockets around the Galapagos west on the equator to 135W. And warm temps south of the equator from Peru west to 140W were quickly fading to nearly neutral. El Nino appears to be in retreat.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (7/11) Today's temps were rising slightly today up to -0.719, up from -1.016 degs on 7/9, and that was the lowest since April 14. Otherwise the trend has had temps at -0.500 degs since early June, and that down from a peak of +1.235 on 5/27.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(7/11) Today temps were falling again down at +0.138 today. The trend has been downward since early June.

Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (7/11) The model indicates a cooling trend setting up with temps falling from +0.50 degs in mid-June falling steadily to 0.0 degs in mid-July and forecast down to -0.40 Sept 1 holding through Oct. Temps to fall again in Nov to -0.50 degs by Dec, then rising in Jan reaching 0.0 degs by late March 1. A weak La Nina pattern is to set up.
IRI Consensus Plume: The June 2019 Plume depicts temps are at +0.60 degs in June, and are to hold in the +0.70 range into November, then fading slightly to +0.65 in February 2020. See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad) (7/11): The daily index was negative today at -19.33, mostly negative the last 26 days. The 30 day average was falling at -11.18. The 90 day average was steady at -8.37, suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern biased towards El Nino (for now).
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): (April) +0.34, March +1.0, Feb +1.29, Jan +0.193. It is approaching El Nino territory but still indicted mostly ENSO neutral conditions.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The PDO is weakly positive, even though La Nina is in play.
Per NOAAs index recent values: June 2017 +0.21, July -0.50, Aug -0.62, Sept -0.25, Oct -0.61, Nov -0.45, Dec -0.13, Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan -0.23, Feb -0.55 This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO, even with La Nina, because the warm PDO appears to be dampening the effects of La Nina. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): June 2017 +0.79, July +0.10, Aug +0.09, Sept +0.32, Oct +0.05, Nov +0.15, Dec +0.50, Jan +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

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External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave


Powerlinessurf Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest

Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for the week starting Sunday (7/7):
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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Stormsurf and Mavericks on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Mavericks Invitational Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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