Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt)/Buoy 239 (Lani): Seas were 3.2 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 2.2 ft @ 13.6 secs from 177 degrees. Water temp 79.0 degs (Barbers Pt), 78.6 (Pearl Harbor 233), 80.4 (Lani 239).
Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 5.6 ft @ 7.7 secs with swell 4.2 ft @ 8.1 secs from 32 degrees. Water temp 78.8 degs.
Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 4.8 ft @ 12.8 secs with swell 4.0 ft @ 12.2 secs from 181 degrees. Wind west at 4-8 kts. Water temperature 70.9 degs, 67.3 (Topanga 103), 64.6 degs (Long Beach 215), 73.4 (Del Mar 153), 73.2 (Torrey Pines Outer 155). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 4.8 ft @ 12.5 secs from 175 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 3.1 ft @ 12.3 secs from 190 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 3.2 ft @ 12.4 secs from 188 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 4.4 ft @ 12.4 secs from 195 degrees. Water temp 72.7 degs.
Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 5.7 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 4.5 ft @ 12.9 secs from 173 degrees. Wind at buoy 46012 was northwest at 12-16 kts. Water temp 55.4 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 53.2 (Pt Reyes 46013), 57.2 (46026), 58.8 (SF Bar 142), 60.3 (Pt Santa Cruz 254) and 58.1 (Monterey Bay 46042).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Tuesday (8/2) North and Central CA had set waves at thigh high and clean coming from the south but real weak. Protected breaks were flat to thigh high and clean with fog on it early. At Santa Cruz surf was chest to shoulder high on the sets and lined up and peeling and clean with decent form when it came. In Southern California/Ventura waves were up to head high and lined up with decent form and fairly clean but with some westerly lump intermixed. Central Orange County had sets at waist high and super lined up if not closed out and clean coming from the south. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at shoulder to head high and lined up but a bit warbled from funky onshore wind early. North San Diego had sets at shoulder to near head high and lined up and closed out and fairly clean early. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore still had some waves with sets chest to shoulder high and clean and lined up when they came early. The East Shore had windswell with waves chest high and chopped from moderate east-northeast trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (8/2) swell was fading in Hawaii but holding in California from the third and final gale in a series that developed just off the Ross Ice Shelf on Sat-Sun (7/24) producing up to 32 ft seas aimed northeast. Beyond a small gale developed over the far Southeast Pacific on Thurs (7/28) producing 35 ft seas barely in the SCal swell window and aimed mostly east with little odds of swell expected to result. Beyond another weak gale is to develop over the Central South Pacific tracking east on Wed-Thurs (8/4) producing 36 ft seas over a small area aimed northeast then redeveloping in the Southeast Pacific Fri (8/5) with 31 ft seas aimed north. And maybe a second gael to form in the Southeast Pacific on Mon (8/8) producing 37 ft seas but all aimed due east. Something to weakly monitor.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (8/2) no swell of interest was in the water and no swell producing weather systems have occurred.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

Tropical Update
Hurricane Frank built to hurricane status on Fri (7/29) with 70 kts winds 480 nmiles southwest of Cabo San Lucas tracking northwest. Frank peaked through the day Sat (7/30) with 80 kts winds 1100 nmiles south of Dana Point CA on the 175 degree path to Southern CA holding through the evening 950 nmiles south and on the 180 degree path to Dana Point. A quick fade set in Sun AM (7/31) with winds down to 75 kts and the forecast indicates Frank is to drop down to tropical storm status Monday AM (8/1).

Southern CA: Swell was supposed to peak Tues AM (8/2) at 3.7 ft @ 12-13 secs (4.5 ft). Swell fading fast on Wed AM (8/3) from 3.0 ft @ 9-10 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 175-180 degrees

North CA: Swell peaking mid-day Tues AM (8/2) at 3.4 ft @ 13 secs (4.5 ft). Swell fading fast on Wed AM (8/3) from 2.7 ft @ 11 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 170-175 degrees

Wed (8/3) northwest winds are forecast at 5-10 kts for North and Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds are to build to 15 kts over a shallow area for both North and Central CA with the remnants of Hurricane Frank 40 nmiles southwest of Pt Conception. No windswell forecast.
Thurs (8/4) northwest winds are forecast at 15-20 kts for North CA and 5-10 kts early for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 20+ kts limited to Cape Mendocino with northwest winds 5-10 kts south of Bodega Bay. The remains of what was Hurricane Frank are to be barely circulating 300 nmiles west-southwest of Pt Conception. Very limited short period northwest windswell possible late.
Fri (8/5) northwest winds are forecast at 15-20 kts mainly off Cape Mendocino early and 5-10 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 15 kts limited to off of Cape Mendocino with west to northwest winds 10 kts from Pt Arena south to Pt Conception. No windswell production forecast.
Sat (8/6) northwest winds are forecast at 5-10 kts for North and Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 5-10 kts for all of North and Central CA. but 15 kts for Pt Conception down into Southern CA. No windswell production forecast.
Sun (8/7) northwest winds are forecast at 5 kts for North CA early and 15 kts south of Monterey Bay for Central CA. No change in the afternoon. No windswell production is forecast.
Mon (8/8) northwest winds are forecast at 5 kts for North and Central CA early but northwest 15 kts south of Monterey Bay. No change in the afternoon. No windswell production forecast.
Tues (8/9) northwest winds are forecast at 5 kts for North and Central CA early but northwest 15 kts south of Monterey Bay. No change in the afternoon. No windswell production forecast.

Freezing level for the Tioga Pass Road is 14,000+ ft today and unchanged for the foreseeable future. A summertime pattern is in effect.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Jetstream
On Tuesday (8/2) the influential southern branch of the jetstream was running west to east in a zonal pattern on the 60S latitude line over the width of the South Pacific with no troughs indicated offering no clear support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours a bit of a trough is forecast developing southwest of New Zealand on Wed (8/3) being fed by 120-130 kt winds offering some support for gale development and tracking east into Fri (8/5). And on Friday a ridge is to start building west of the trough with 130-140 kts winds pushing southeast over Antarctica suppressing gale production while tracking east. Beyond 72 hours the ridge is to track east and moderate and effectively gone by Mon (8/8). But another ridge is to be forming under New Zealand on Mon (8/8) reaching down over Antarctic Ice offering no support for gale development into Tues (8/9). But a trough is forecast developing then east of the ridge offering some limited hope over the Southeast Pacific.

Surface Analysis
Swell from the third of 3 weak gales previously over the South Central Pacific is fading in Hawaii and just past its peak in CA (see 3rd Weak South Central Pacific Gales below). Background swell from a gale previously over the extreme Southeast Pacific might also make a few minimal waves in Southern CA for next weekend (8/6) but odds are low.

Over the next 72 hours starting Wed AM (8/3) a tiny gale is to develop just southwest of New Zealand with 50 kt southwest winds and seas building to 30 ft over a tiny area at 53.5S 178E aimed northeast. Fetch is to track east-northeast in the evening at 45-50 kts over a tiny area aimed more northeast with seas 36 ft seas at 49.75S 166.25W aimed northeast but only over a tiny area. On Thurs AM (8/4) southwest winds are forecast at 45 kts over the Central South Pacific with seas 32 ft at 48.5S 156.25W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch is to be fading in size but from 45 kts over the northern reaches of the Southeast Pacific aimed well north with seas fading from 32 ft at 46.75S 147.25W. On Fri AM (8/5) fetch is to rebuild at 35-40+ kts over a solid area aimed due north with seas 27 ft at 44N 141W aimed northeast. In the evening south winds are forecast at 35-45 kts aimed north over the Southeast Pacific with 31 ft seas at 47.75S 130.25W aimed north. On Sat (8/6) fetch is to be dissipating from 30-35 kts aimed north with seas 29 ft at 44.25S 126.5W aimed north-northeast. The gale is to be gone after that. Some odds of swell resulting if all occurs as forecast.

3rd Weak Central South Pacific Gale
On Sat PM (7/23) another small gale developed southeast of New Zealand with 40-45 kt southwest winds and seas building from 30 ft at 62S 177W aimed northeast. On Sun AM (7/24) the gale was fading with 35-40 kt southwest winds over a decent sized area and seas 32 ft at 60S 165.75W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch was lifting north while fading and getting absorbed by a cutoff low to the north with south winds 30-35 kts and seas fading from 27 ft at 55.25S 162.5W aimed northeast. The gale dissipated from there.

Southern CA: Swell fading on Tues (8/2) from 1.8 ft @ 14 secs (2.5 ft). Dribbles on Wed (8/3) fading from 1.6 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 200 degrees Secondary energy to arrive on Wed (8/3) building to 1.6 ft @ 16 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell continues on Thurs (8/4) at 1.7 ft @ 15 secs early (2.5 ft). Residuals fading Fri (8/5) from 1.6 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction 203 degrees

North CA: Swell fading on Tues (8/2) from 2.0 ft @ 14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Dribbles on Wed (8/3) fading from 1.3 ft @ 13-14 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 198 degrees Secondary energy to arrive on Wed (8/3) building to 1.3 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.0 ft). Swell continues on Thurs (8/4) at 1.6 ft @ 15-16 secs early (2.5 ft). Residuals fading Fri (8/5) from 1.7 ft @ 14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction 200 degrees

Southeast Pacific Gale
A gale started developing in the Southeast Pacific Wed PM (7/27) with 35-40 kts west winds and seas building. On Thurs AM (7/28) fetch was building to 45 kts more solid from the southwest right on the edge of the CA swell window with seas 27 ft at 61.5S 129W aimed mostly east. In the evening fetch was holding at 45 kts and moving just east of the SCal swell window with seas up to 34 ft exiting the SCal swell window at 63.0S 117W between 18Z Thurs to 00Z Fri (7/29). Something to monitor but odds of meaningful swell resulting are low.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival late on Fri (8/5) with no rideable size forecast. Swell peaking Sat (8/6) at 0.8 ft @ 16 secs at exposed breaks (1.0-1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 180 degrees

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours starting Sun PM (8/7) a tiny gale is to develop in the Central South Pacific with 50 kt east winds and seas building from 33 ft over a tiny area at 54S 147.25W aimed east. Fetch is to track east on Mon AM (8/8) at 50 kts from the southwest with seas37 ft at 53.5S 132.75W aimed east. In the evening fetch is to push east of the Southern CA swell window at 40 kts with seas 30 ft at 54.25S 117.25W. Something to monitor.

Kelvin Wave All But Gone
Cool Water Redeveloping - Models Suggesting A Final La Nina Surge for Fall
Cool subsurface water volume peaked under the equatorial Pacific on 10/15/21, faded in May and June 2022, but is stating to rebuild in late July. A Kelvin Wave traversed the equatorial Pacific May-June, but is discharging now. The SOI appears to be past its peak. La Nina conditions are projected weakly returning in Nino3.4 in Fall then fading in Winter. But overall cool water volume over the entire equatorial Pacific is to be fading steadily from here forward. The outlook is turning more optimistic.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead. But cold water returned in July 2021 and a second pulse of La Nina developed through the Winter of 2022 and is continuing today, though possibly weaker with its foundation appearing to be in decline.

Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But La Nina made a strong return by the end of Sept much like what the CFS model suggested would happen. A full double dip La Nina pattern took hold as we moved into November with this second La Nina dip being nearly as strong as the previous one. But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late December with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern at that time and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Jan. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter. But by later in Feb 2022 perhaps a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. But it will be too little too late. As a result a significantly reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct-Feb 2022, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by March 2022, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The status of the PDO is not known, though it appears to be returning to at least a neutral state, rather than the warm phase as previously projected thereby having no significant positive or negative effect on the long term outlook.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (8/1) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and moderate to strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were modest east over the East equatorial Pacific and light east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (8/2) Strong east anomalies were over the KWGA today. The 7 day forecast calls for east anomalies continuing at strong status over the KWGA to 8/4 then fading to moderate status and holding through 8/8, then possibly rebuilding on the 9th (the end of the model run).

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (8/1) A neutral MJO signal was indicated today over the KWGA. The statistical model indicates a neutral MJO signal to continue through day 5 of model run then turning active building to moderate strength on days 10 and 15 of the model run. The dynamic model suggests the same thing initially but with the MJO turning weakly Inactive on day 15 of the model run.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (8/2) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was weak over the East Indian Ocean and is to move to the East Maritime Continent on day 15 of the model run and very weak. The dynamic model suggest the same but with the Active Phase doubling back on itself making it only to the Central Maritime Continent and very weak on day 15 of the model run.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (8/2) A modest Inactive MJO signal (dry air) was over the East equatorial Pacific moving towards Ecuador. The forecast depicts the Inactive Phase (dry air) tracking east while dissolving over the Central America on 9/1. The Active Phase of the MJO (wet air) is to be develop over the KWGA on 8/12 tracking east over the Central Pacific then dissolving there by 9/1. The Inactive Phase (dry air) is to be building over the KWGA starting 9/6 and filling the KWGA at the end of the model run on 8/11.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (8/1) A neutral MJO was over the KWGA today with moderate east anomalies over the KWGA. Looking forward a neutral MJO is forecast with east anomalies slowly decaying to near neutral 8/4 through 8/13 then starting to build some to moderate strength on 8/17 and holding through the end of the model run on 8/29 with a very weak Inactive MJO setting up over the KWGA.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (8/2) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today a weak Inactive Phase was over the KWGA with modest east anomalies filling the KWGA. The forecast depicts the Inactive Phase is to hold over the KWGA through 8/14 with modest east anomalies filling the KWGA. On 8/6 a weak pulse of the Active Phase of the MJO is to try and build through 8/23 but with weak east anomalies holding filling the KWGA. Another pulse of the Inactive Phase is to set up in the KWGA 8/24-9/11 with east anomalies building some over the dateline. On 8/30 a coherent Active Phase of the MJO is to start building pushing through the KWGA through the end of the model run 10/30 with west anomalies reaching east to about 150E on 10/11 then pushing fully east through the KWGA after that and holding through the end of the model run. East anomalies are to slowly giving way and less coherent over the KWGA by 10/16. This is an interesting development. It seems east anomalies are to become less locked and strong even over the dateline as we get deeper into October. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias with 1 contour line was centered at 150W with its western perimeter at 165E today. A second contour is to redevelop on 8/5 with the western edge of the high pressure bias retrograding west to 145E at the end of the model run. A broad single contour low pressure bias is established centered over the Maritime Continent at 115E with it's leading edge at 140E today filling 40% of the KWGA but is forecast retrograding to 130E at the end of the model run. A second contour line is to appear on 8/6. Of note, the leading edge of the low pressure bias has been stalled at 150E since 1/31. But east anomalies have now recentered themselves at 170W (previously on the dateline) but are to continue to have some solid influence over the KWGA for the foreseeable future.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (8/2) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was easing east to 171E. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 178E. The 26 degree isotherm was backtracking to 159W from 148W and previously from 142W. The 24 deg isotherm was steady across the East Pacific but pretty shallow in the far East. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +2 deg C were in a pocket in the far West Pacific down 150m with it's leading edge at 168W, A pocket of cool anomalies were developing down to -3 degs C at 140W and filling the area from 170W to 110W at depth. The remnants of a previous Kevin Wave were at +2 deg in the East Pacific off Ecuador starting at 126W and slowly losing coverage while pushing east and erupting to the surface. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 7/27 indicates the same broad area of warm anomalies in the west pushing east to 170W and far warmer. A cool pocket was between 115W to 170W and reaching the surface. The faint fading remnants of a previous Kelvin Wave were fading fast between 100-130W. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (7/27) Sea heights were falling over the Equatorial Pacific. A broad pocket of positive anomalies were over the equator west of the dateline pushing to east 165E. A building pocket of negative anomalies were developing at -15 cms between 115W to 175W. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram the Kelvin Wave was gone. And cool anomalies were building between 120W and 175W and again just off Ecuador. A cool cycle is developing.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (8/1) The latest images depict a broad generic pool of cool water extending west from Chile and Peru to the dateline and filling well south of the equator. The coolest waters were on the equator west of 135W. An area of warm water was present nearly continuous on the equator from Ecuador west to 110W, then breaking up from 110W to 140W. the previous Kelvin Wave is dissipating. A weak area of warm water was present north of the equator (15 deg N) extending off mainland Mexico to 145W. Overall this indicates the late stages of La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (8/1): Pockets of mostly cooling water were on the equator between 100W to 150W.
Hi-res Overview: (8/1) Persistent cool waters cover a large area from Ecuador to 160E on and south of the equator from South America down at 20S with the coolest waters between 150W to 170E on the equator. Warmer than normal waters were on the equator in the east aligned in a thin stream from Ecuador to 110W reaching 3 degrees north and south of the equator. Previous equatorial warming between 110W to 140W was breaking up. La Nina remains in control over the East Equatorial Pacific and the density and intensity of the cooling appears to be rebuilding with warm water from a previous Kelvin Wave breaking up over the East equatorial Pacific.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (8/2) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs). Today's temps were steady at -0.917 after dipping on 7/20 to -1.6 degs. But in general they've been stable near -1.4 degrees since 6/12. Previous in that time frame were -1.189 (7/7), -1.534 (7/5). Previously temps were at -1.822 on 6/9 after being up to -1.506 (5/21) and that after hovering around -2.0 degs since 4/21. Prior to that temps were fading after peaking at +0.760 on 3/18. Temps had been moving upwards since 2/20, and beat a previous high of -0.650 degs on 1/9 and that after being down at -1.871 on 1/3 and -1.954 on 12/18, the lowest this year so far. Previously temps dropped on 11/24 at -1.700, the lowest in months after previously toggling steady at about -0.6 degs from mid Aug to Oct 6, then falling from there. Last year temps bottomed out at -2.138 on 8/13/20. The longterm trend has been steadily downward.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (7/31) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs). Today's temps continued trending down and were at -0.596 and back in La Nina territory. Temps have been falling since 7/15 after being more or less steady the previous 3 weeks peaking at -0.25 on 7/14 and -0.275 on 7/5. Previously temps had been on an upward trend since 5/15 rising to -0.414 degs (6/19) and -0.493 on 6/9, the first reading above La Nina threshold values since Sept 2021. Temps were down to -0.929 (5/2) and that after rising to a peak at -0.704 on 3/27 and had been on a gentle rising trend since falling to -1.012 on 3/8. Previously temps were rising slightly to -0.505 on 2/2 and that after reaching a peak low of -1.096 on 1/3 beating the previous low of -1.080 on 11/2, the lowest in a year. Prior to that temps had been in a freefall starting from the -0.175 range in early Sept. Before that temps peaked up at 7/1 +0.332, the highest in a year. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3/2020.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data
Previous - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022 then fading to -1.1 degs in May before starting an upward climb peaking in mid-June at -0.65 degs and mid July at -0.55 degs.
Forecast (8/2) - Temps are to fade steadily in Aug to -1.05 degs then holding there into Nov, before starting a quick rise and reaching above the La Nina threshold in Jan 2023 and up to +0.25 degs in April. This model suggests we are going to steadily transition towards ENSO neutral in the coming Winter. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps falling to -0.80 in Aug and holding there into mid-Nov, then starting an upward progression rising above La Nina threshold in late Dec and rising from there forward to +0.20 degs in April. According to this version of the model we will be try to move out of La Nina in July, only to fall back into it in the Fall before finally rising out of it in Dec. That said - the surface temp coverage model suggests a steady erosion of the coldest waters south of Nino3.4 (down at 20S) from here forward and the cool-down limited to the equator and only weakly. By Dec near neutral temps are to prevail over the entire equatorial Pacific and cool waters totally gone in Jan. The greater equatorial Pacific cool signature looks to be weakening starting from October and points beyond.
IRI Consensus Plume: The July 19, 2022 Plume depicts temps are -0.665 degs today. Temps to fall more to -0.821 in Nov then are to warm to +0.024 in March. This model suggests a continuation of minimal La Nina temps through Nov. then transitioning to ENSO neutral. This model is in line with the CFS model.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator):
Today (8/2) the daily index was falling some at +25.79 with previous peaks at +33.57 (5/24), +40.77 (5/10), +31.44 (4/27), +31.80 (4/6), +27.33 (1/31) and +46.71 (12/26). The trend of late has been solidly positive. Previous other notable peaks were +30.98 (11/26), +36.90 (9/28), +27.75 ( 9/13) and +37.86 (7/15).
The 30 day average was rising some at +8.36 today after falling to +6.89 on 7/29 then peaking at +20.34 (5/12) the highest in a year and beating last years high of +19.51 (1/14).
The 90 day average was falling rising some at +14.49 after falling to +13.49 (7/27) and that after peaking at +18.40 (7/2) beating it's previous peak of +16.86 (5/31), the highest in a year. It previously peaked at +9.80 (9/21) after falling to it's lowest point in a year at +1.06 (6/9). The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 (2/23/21 - clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggest La Nina is returning.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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