Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt)/Buoy 239 (Lani): Seas were 3.6 ft @ 7.1 secs with swell 1.1 ft @ 15.1 secs from 187 degrees. Water temp 80.4 degs (Barbers Pt), 79.9 (Pearl Harbor 233), 80.8 (Lani 239).
Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 4.1 ft @ 6.7 secs with swell 3.0 ft @ 6.2 secs from 45 degrees. Water temp 79.3 degs.
Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.0 ft @ 5.9 secs with swell 2.3 ft @ 6.0 secs from 261 degrees. Wind northwest at 10-12 kts. Water temperature 70.2 degs, 68.5 (Topanga 103), 62.6 degs (Long Beach 215), 72.1 (Del Mar 153), 74.8 (Torrey Pines Outer 155). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 3.7 ft @ 5.9 secs from 305 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.7 ft @ 9.3 secs from 161 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.6 ft @ 8.9 secs from 180 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.6 ft @ 9.0 secs from 189 degrees. Water temp 72.9 degs.
Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 3.6 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 2.1 ft @ 9.0 secs from 291 degrees. Wind at buoy 46012 was northwest at 8-12 kts. Water temp 62.4 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 55.3 (Pt Reyes 46013), 61.3 (46026), 61.3 (SF Bar 142), 61.7 (Pt Santa Cruz 254) and 61.7 (Monterey Bay 46042).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Thursday (8/9) North and Central CA had set waves at knee to thigh high and chopped from northwest winds and not rideable. Protected breaks were flat and pretty clean. At Santa Cruz surf was flat and clean. In Southern California/Ventura waves were knee to thigh high and ruffled from modest northwest wind. Central Orange County had sets at thigh to maybe waist high and clean and weak. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had rare waves to maybe waist high and clean and soft. North San Diego had sets at thigh high and soft but clean. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore had some chest high sets and somewhat lined up and clean but pretty soft. The East Shore had windswell with waves waist to near chest high and chopped from moderate east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Thursday (8/11) no swell was hitting California. But Hawaii was getting tiny background swell originating from a small gale that developed over the Central South Pacific tracking east Wed-Thurs (8/4) producing 34 ft seas over a small area aimed northeast and continued over the Southeast Pacific Fri (8/5) with 26 ft seas aimed north. That swell is also propagating towards California. A broad but weak gale is forecast developing southeast of New Zealand Sat-Sun (8/14) producing up to 29 ft seas aimed northeast. And theoretically a broad system is to develop in the deep Central South Pacific Wed-Thurs (8/18) with 38 ft seas aimed northeast. Something to monitor.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Thursday (8/11) no swell of interest was in the water and no swell producing weather systems have occurred.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

Fri (8/12) northwest winds are forecast holding at 15 kts for North CA and 20 kts for Central CA south of Monterey Bay early. More of the same in the afternoon. Short period windchop building.
Sat (8/13) no change is forecast with northwest winds 15-20 kts for all North and Central CA early. In the afternoon solid 20 kts northwest winds are forecast for all of North and Central CA. Windswell developing.
Sun (8/14) northwest winds are forecast at 20-25 kts for all of North CA and 20 kts for Central CA early. More of the same in the afternoon with the area of 25 kts northwest winds expanding coverage in the north. Windswell on the increase.
Mon (8/15) northwest winds are forecast at 20-25 kts for North CA and 20 kts for Central CA early. No change in the afternoon. Windswell continues. Looks like a typical late May/early June pattern. La Nina typically delays the season.
Tues (8/16) northwest winds are forecast at 25 kts for North CA and 15-20 kts for Central CA early. More of the same in the afternoon up north but with nearshore winds fading to 10 kts for Central CA. Cleaner windswell developing for Central CA later.
Wed (8/17) the typical summertime pressure gradient is to set up with northwest winds 25+ kts for Cape Mendocino and a weak eddy flow (south winds) from Bodega Bay southward early. in the afternoon the gradient is to start fading from 20 kts limited to North Cape Mendocino. a light northwest if not weak eddy flow is forecast south of there. Windswell starting to fade some later.
Thurs (8/18) northwest winds to be 20 kts for Cape Mendocino early and light northwest 5-10 kts south of there early. No change in the afternoon. Weak windswell for exposed breaks.

Freezing level for the Tioga Pass Road is 14,000+ ft today and unchanged for the foreseeable future. A summertime pattern is in effect.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Jetstream
On Thursday (8/11) the influential southern branch of the jetstream was tracking west to east in a zonal flow across the South Pacific on the 60S latitude line tracking over the northern edge of Antarctic Ice producing no troughs and offering no support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours the zonal flow is to continue until late Fri (8/12) when a trough is forecast starting to develop south of New Zealand being fed by 140 kts winds lifting northeast to 50S on Sat-Sun (8/14) offering decent support for gale development. Beyond 72 hours that trough is to weaken over the Central South Pacific late Mon (8/15). And a ridge is forecast building behind the trough sweeping southeast over Antarctic Ice late Mon (8/15) through Wed (8/17). But on Thurs (8/18) a trough is forecast developing over the deep Central South Pacific being fed by a broad area of 150-160 kts winds lifting northeast offering good support for gale development, if the models hold true.

Surface Analysis
Small swell was hitting Hawaii and bound for the US West Coast from a gale previously southeast of New Zealand (see Central South Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours a gale is forecast developing on the very eastern edge of the the Southern CA swell window Thurs AM (8/11) producing 40 kt west winds and seas 27 ft at 49S 152W aimed east. In the evening anew fetch of 45-50 kt southwest winds are to develop in the same area tracking east with seas 30 ft at 47.25S 118.5W aimed northeast. On Fri AM (8/12) fetch is to be well east of the Southern CA swell window with seas from previous fetch 28-30 ft on the eastern edge of the Southern Ca swell window at 48S 118W aimed northeast. Low odds of small swell radiating north into Southern CA.

Also a gale is forecast developing south of New Zealand on Sat PM (8/13) with 35-40 kt southwest winds and seas building from 28 ft at 55S 169E aimed northeast. On Sun AM (7/14) southwest winds to be 35 kts over a decent sized area with seas 27-28 ft at 50S 172W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch is to be fading from 35 kts from the southwest lifting northeast with seas 27ft at 47S 168W aimed northeast. On Mon AM (8/15) the gale is to be fading with 30-35 kt southwest winds and seas from previous fetch fading from 27 ft at 52S 155W aimed northeast. Something to monitor.

Central South Pacific Gale
On Wed AM (8/3) a tiny gale developed just southwest of New Zealand with 50 kt southwest winds and seas building to 28 ft over a tiny area at 53.5S 179E aimed northeast. Fetch tracked east-northeast in the evening at 45-50 kts over a tiny area aimed more northeast with seas 34 ft seas at 50.75S 169W aimed northeast but only over a tiny area. On Thurs AM (8/4) south winds were at 45 kts over the Central South Pacific with seas 29 ft at 49S 157W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch was fading in size but from 40-45 kts over the northern reaches of the Southeast Pacific aimed well north with seas 29 ft at 47.25S 147W. On Fri AM (8/5) fetch was holding at 35-40 kts over a decent sized area aimed due north with seas 27 ft at 44S 140.75W aimed northeast. In the evening south winds were fading from 35 kts aimed north over the Southeast Pacific with 28 ft seas at 47S 133.25W aimed north. On Sat (8/6) fetch was dissipating from 30 kts aimed north with seas 25 ft at 44.25S 126W aimed north-northeast. The gale is to be gone after that.

Some odds of swell is to result mainly focused on California and points south of there. .

Oahu: Swell fading on Thurs (8/11) from 0.8 ft @ 15-16 secs early (1.0-1.5 ft). Nothing left after that. Swell Direction 175-180 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri (8/12) building to 1.5 ft @ 17 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell building on Sat (8/13) to 2.0 ft @ 15-16 secs early (3.0 ft). Swell fading some on Sun (8/14) from 2.0 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Residuals on Mon (8/15) fading from 1.7 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 198 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri (8/12) building to 1.4 ft @ 17-18 secs late (2.5 ft). Swell building on Sat (8/13) to 1.7 ft @ 16-17 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft) and 2.0 ft @ 15-16 secs later (3.0 ft). Swell fading some on Sun (8/14) from 1.9 ft @ 15 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Residuals on Mon (8/15) fading from 1.7 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 194 degrees

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast. But a weak early season low pressure system is modeled developing the the Gulf of Alaska Mon-Tues (8/16) with west winds to 25 kts targeting the Pacific Northwest. Maybe some windswell to result with a lot of luck.

And reinforcing low pressure is to build over the same area Wed-Thurs (8/18) with 30 kts winds aimed east. Something to monitor.

Beyond 72 hours a broad gale is to be building off the northern edge of Antarctic Ice over the Central South Pacific with a broad area of 40-45 kts southwest winds pushing off the ice shelf and seas building from 29 ft at 55S 162.5W aimed northeast. On Thurs AM (8/18) a broad fetch of 45 kts southwest winds is forecast developing north of the ice line with seas building from 37 ft at 57S 152.75W aimed northeast. Something to monitor.

Upwelling Phase Beginning
Models Suggesting this to be the Final La Nina Surge
Cool subsurface water volume peaked under the equatorial Pacific on 10/15/21, faded in May and June 2022, but is stating to rebuild in late July. A Kelvin Wave traversed the equatorial Pacific May-June, but was discharged by late July. The SOI appears to be past its peak. La Nina conditions are projected weakly returning in Nino3.4 in Fall then fading in Winter. Overall cool water volume over the entire equatorial Pacific is to be fading steadily from here forward. The outlook is turning more optimistic.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead. But cold water returned in July 2021 and a second pulse of La Nina developed through the Winter of 2022 and is continuing today, though possibly weaker with its foundation appearing to be in decline.

Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But La Nina made a strong return by the end of Sept much like what the CFS model suggested would happen. A full double dip La Nina pattern took hold as we moved into November with this second La Nina dip being nearly as strong as the previous one. But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late December with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern at that time and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Jan. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter. But by later in Feb 2022 perhaps a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. But it will be too little too late. As a result a significantly reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct-Feb 2022, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by March 2022, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The status of the PDO is not known, though it appears to be returning to at least a neutral state, rather than the warm phase as previously projected thereby having no significant positive or negative effect on the long term outlook.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (8/10) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and moderate to strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were weak east over the East equatorial Pacific and modest east over the Central Pacific and modest east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (8/11) Modest east anomalies were over the KWGA today with one intermixed pocket of west anomalies. The 7 day forecast calls for the west anomalies fading by 8/16 with modest east anomalies continuing over the KWGA holding through the end of the model run on 8/18.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (8/10) No MJO signal was indicated today over the KWGA. The statistical model indicates a neutral MJO signal is to hold over the KWGA through day 10 of the model run then turning weakly Inactive on day 15. The dynamic model suggests a weak Inactive signal developing on days 5-15 of the model run. The 2 models are a slightly out of sync.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (8/11) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was very weak over West Pacific and is to move east of Africa and weak 15 days out. The dynamic model suggest the Active Phase racing east and over the Central Indian Ocean and weak on day 15 of the model run.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (8/11) A weak Active MJO signal (wet air) was trying to push east into the West Pacific/KWGA. The forecast depicts the Active Phase of the MJO (wet air) is to be pushing east centered a bit north of the KWGA through 8/31 then tracking east over the Central Pacific and dissolving on 9/10. The Inactive Phase (dry air) is to be building over the KWGA starting 9/5 but mostly south of it then building over the Central Equatorial Pacific 9/10 and filling south of the equatorial Pacific at the end of the model run on 9/20.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (8/10) A weak Active MJO was over the KWGA today and starting to interact with a Equatorial Rossby Wave producing modest west anomalies over the West KWGA wit east anomalies holding over the dateline (West KWGA). Looking forward the Active Phase is forecast traversing the KWGA through 8/18 as the Rossby Wave does the same producing westerly anomalies filling 50% of the KWGA through 8/17, then fading. East anomalies are to start building in earnest on 8/19 as the Rossby Wave and Active MJO fade but with no clear MJO signal depicted beyond. East anomalies are to build to near strong by 8/20 and holding through the end of the model run on 9/7.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (8/11) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today a weak pulse of the Active Phase of the MJO was building over the west KWGA with intermixed pockets of west and east anomalies over the KWGA. The forecast indicates the Active Phase is to traverse the KWGA through 8/23 with weak west anomalies building in pockets over the KWGA. A stronger pulse of the Inactive Phase is to set up in the KWGA 8/21-9/20 with east anomalies retaking control of the KWGA and strong just east of the dateline the last 7 days of that window. On 9/6 a coherent Active Phase of the MJO is to start pushing through the KWGA through 10/20 with west anomalies strong over the Maritime Continent reaching east to about 150E starting 9/14 then pushing east while weakening with west and neutral anomalies filling the KWGA from 10/14 and beyond. East anomalies are to slowly give way and dissolve over the vast majority of the equatorial Pacific by 10/22. This is an interesting development. It seems east anomalies are to become less locked and strong even over the dateline as we get deeper into October. A weak Inactive MJO is to follow trying to move into the KWGA on 10/18 but insignificant and not making any real eastward progress. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias with 1 contour line was centered at 180W with its western perimeter at 165E today. A second contour is to redevelop on 8/12 with the western edge of the high pressure bias retrograding west to 145E at 9/20 then possibly starting to east east from there. A broad single contour low pressure bias is established centered over the Maritime Continent at 115E with it's leading edge at 135E today filling 10% of the KWGA but is forecast retrograding to 125E on 9/20 then starting to east east slightly at the end of the model run. A second contour line is to appear on 8/12. Of note, the leading edge of the low pressure bias has been stalled at 150E since 1/31. But east anomalies have now recentered themselves at 170W (previously on the dateline) and are to continue to have some solid influence over the KWGA into early Oct, then fading.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (8/11) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was steady at 171E. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 180E. The 26 degree isotherm was retrograding to 145W from 142W and that after after backtracking to 159W from 148W and previously from 142W. The 24 deg isotherm was reaching the surface at 105W. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +2 deg C were in a pocket in the far West Pacific down 150m with it's leading edge easing east to 160W, A pocket of cool anomalies at -3 degs C were centered at 125W and filling the area from 158W to 100W at depth. The remnants of a previous Kevin Wave were at +1 degs in the East Pacific off Ecuador starting at 125W and slowly losing coverage while pushing east and erupting to the surface. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 8/6 indicates the same broad area of warm anomalies in the west pushing east to 165W and far warmer. A cool pocket was filling the area east of 160W and reaching the surface. The faint fading remnants of a previous Kelvin Wave were all but gone in the east. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (8/6) Sea heights were falling over the Equatorial Pacific. A broad pocket of positive anomalies were over the equator west of the dateline reaching east to only 165E. A building pocket of negative anomalies were developing between 105W to 175W wit their core at -15cms at 140W. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram the Kelvin Wave was gone. Cool anomalies were positioned between 110W to 166W but no longer expanding coverage and if anything moving east. A cool cycle is underway.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (8/10) The latest images depict a broad generic pool of cool water extending west from Chile and Peru to the dateline and filling well south of the equator. The coolest waters were on the equator west of 140W but were also now developing in the east reaching to 105W in pockets. An area of warm water was present on the equator from Ecuador west to 110W and in pockets west of there. A weak area of warm water was present north of the equator (15 deg N) extending off mainland Mexico to 145W. Overall this indicates the late stages of La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (8/10): Pockets of cooling and warming water were on the equator between Ecuador to 160W. It seems the warming pockets have a slight advantage.
Hi-res Overview: (8/10) Persistent cool waters cover a large area from Ecuador to 160E on and south of the equator from South America down at 20S with the coolest waters between 140W to 170E on the equator. Warmer than normal waters were on the equator in the east aligned in a thin stream from Ecuador to 110W reaching 3 degrees north and south of the equator. Previous equatorial warming between 110W to 140W was breaking up if not almost gone. La Nina remains in control over the East Equatorial Pacific and the density and intensity of the cooling appears to be rebuilding with warm water from a previous Kelvin Wave breaking up over the East equatorial Pacific.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (8/11) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs compared to official sources). Today's temps were falling again down to -1.076 degs and have been in the -1.0 range the past 2 weeks. Temp were down on 7/20 to -1.6 degs. Previously temps were stable near -1.4 degrees 6/12 through 7/27. Peaks in that time frame were -1.189 (7/7), -1.534 (7/5). Previously temps were at -1.822 on 6/9 after being up to -1.506 (5/21) and that after hovering around -2.0 degs since 4/21. Prior to that temps were fading after peaking at +0.760 on 3/18. Temps had been moving upwards since 2/20, and beat a previous high of -0.650 degs on 1/9 and that after being down at -1.871 on 1/3 and -1.954 on 12/18, the lowest this year so far. Previously temps dropped on 11/24 at -1.700, the lowest in months after previously toggling steady at about -0.6 degs from mid Aug to Oct 6, then falling from there. Last year temps bottomed out at -2.138 on 8/13/20. The longterm trend has been steadily downward.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (8/11) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs). Today's temps appear to have stabilized at -0.626 (in that range the past week). Temps fell back into La Nina territory starting 7/27. Temps have been falling since 7/15 after being more or less steady the previous 3 weeks peaking at -0.25 on 7/14 and -0.275 on 7/5. Previously temps had been on an upward trend since 5/15 rising to -0.414 degs (6/19) and -0.493 on 6/9, the first reading above La Nina threshold values since Sept 2021. Temps were down to -0.929 (5/2) and that after rising to a peak at -0.704 on 3/27 and had been on a gentle rising trend since falling to -1.012 on 3/8. Previously temps were rising slightly to -0.505 on 2/2 and that after reaching a peak low of -1.096 on 1/3 beating the previous low of -1.080 on 11/2, the lowest in a year. Prior to that temps had been in a freefall starting from the -0.175 range in early Sept. Before that temps peaked up at 7/1 +0.332, the highest in a year. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3/2020.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data
Previous - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022 then fading to -1.1 degs in May before starting an upward climb peaking in mid-June at -0.65 degs and mid July at -0.55 degs.
Forecast (8/11) - Temps are to fall steadily in Aug to -1.00 degs then generally holding there falling in Nov to -1.2 degs before starting a quick rise and reaching above the La Nina threshold in Jan 2023 and up to +0.20 degs in April. This model suggests we are going to steadily transition towards ENSO neutral in the coming Winter. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps falling to -0.80 in Aug and holding near -0.75 degs till Oct, falling mid-Nov to -1.00 degs, then starting an upward progression rising above La Nina threshold in Jan and rising from there forward to +0.10 degs in April. According to this version of the model we will hold in weak La Nina conditions through summer into Fall before starting a trend towards neutrality in Dec. That said - the surface temp coverage model suggests a steady erosion of the coldest waters south of Nino3.4 (down at 20S) from here forward and the cool-down limited to the equator and only weakly. By Dec near neutral temps are to prevail over the entire equatorial Pacific and cool waters totally gone in Jan. The greater equatorial Pacific cool signature looks to be weakening starting from October and points beyond.
IRI Consensus Plume: The July 19, 2022 Plume depicts temps are -0.665 degs today. Temps to fall more to -0.821 in Nov then are to warm to +0.024 in March. This model suggests a continuation of minimal La Nina temps through Nov. then transitioning to ENSO neutral. This model is in line with the CFS model.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (8/11) the Daily Index was steady at +1.03. Previous peaks were at +33.57 (5/24), +40.77 (5/10), +31.44 (4/27), +31.80 (4/6), +27.33 (1/31) and +46.71 (12/26). The trend has been solidly positive but starting in July weakness is starting to take hold. Previous other notable peaks were +30.98 (11/26), +36.90 (9/28), +27.75 ( 9/13) and +37.86 (7/15).
The 30 day average was falling some at +9.21 today after falling to +6.89 on 7/29. It peaked at +20.34 (5/12) the highest in a year and beating last years high of +19.51 (1/14).
The 90 day average was falling some at +12.92 after falling to +13.49 (7/27) and that after peaking at +18.40 (7/2) beating it's previous peak of +16.86 (5/31), the highest in a year. It previously peaked at +9.80 (9/21) after falling to it's lowest point in a year at +1.06 (6/9). The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 (2/23/21 - clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggest La Nina is returning.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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