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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Tuesday, August 21, 2018 4:08 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
2.0 - California & 1.9 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 8/20 thru Sun 8/26

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Small Gulf Swell Hits Hawaii
Hurricane Lane Approaches the Islands Too

BUOY ROUNDUP

On Tuesday, August 21, 2018 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai): Seas were 2.1 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 0.9 ft @ 14.6 secs from 192 degrees.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.7 ft @ 12.8 secs with swell 1.0 ft @ 12.1 secs from 200 degrees. Wind at the buoy was west at 8-10 kts. Water temperature 71.8 degs. At Ventura (Buoy 111) swell was 0.7 ft @ 12.2 secs from 190 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.0 ft @ 13.0 secs from 202 degrees. At Camp Pendleton (043) swell was 1.0 ft @ 18.5 secs from 220 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.1 ft @ 13.0 secs from 195 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 4.4 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 3.4 ft @ 8.6 secs from 324 degrees. Wind at the buoy was southeast at 6 kts. Water temp 58.3 degs.

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Tuesday (8/21) in North and Central CA northern windswell was producing waves in the knee to waist high range and moderately textured from south winds in the San Francisco area and soft. It's not really rideable. Protected breaks were knee to thigh high and clean and weak and not rideable. At Santa Cruz surf was flat to knee high and clean. In Southern California/Ventura surf was flat to knee high and textured from northwest winds just offshore. In North Orange Co waves were knee high and heavily textured from south wind. South Orange Country's best breaks were getting residual sets at chest to shoulder high on the peak and clean but weak. In North San Diego surf was thigh to waist high and clean but soft and weak and inconsistent. Hawaii's North Shore was getting Gulf swell with waves chest to shoulder high and lined up and a little ruffled by northeast wind. The South Shore was flat and clean. The East Shore was getting minimal east windswell with waves thigh high and chopped from moderate east-northeast trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (8/21) no swell was hitting California. But small swell was hitting he North Shore of Oahu from a small gale previously in the Northwestern Gulf of Alaska that produced 22 ft seas aimed south. Beyond no gales have formed with no other swell in the water and no swell producing weather systems are forecast in both the northern and southern hemi for the next week. No windswell was being produced for California, but Hawaii was doing better and that pattern is to build over the next 3-4 days with Hurricane Lane expected to move very close to all the Hawaiian Islands.

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Tuesday AM (8/21) swell associated with a gale previously in the Northwestern Gulf of Alaska was starting to hit Hawaii (see Gulf Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

Gulf Gale
A gale low started developing in the Northwestern Gulf on Fri PM (8/17) at 990 mbs producing north winds 30 kts in it's west quadrant aimed towards Hawaii but not getting any real traction on the oceans surface yet. On Sat AM (8/18) the gale lifted rapidly north just south of the Eastern Aleutians producing 40 kt northwest winds over a short fetch aimed south and southeast with seas building from 18 ft at 49N 163W. In the evening fetch held 40 kts from the north just south of the Eastern Aleutians with seas building to 21 ft at 49N 167W targeting mainly Hawaii and building to 22 ft at 48N 167W at 11 PM PDT. The gale fell south some and faded Sun AM with north winds fading from 30 kts and seas pushing south at 21 ft at 45N 166W targeting mainly Hawaii. The gale to dissipate thereafter.

Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Tues (8/21) at sunset with period 13 secs and size tiny peaking at 3.8 ft @ 12-13 secs (4.5-5.0 ft faces) near 1 AM Wed (8/22). Swell fading a sunrise from 3.7 ft @ 12-13 secs at sunrise (4.5 ft). Swell Direction: 345 degrees.

Windswell Forecast
California: On Tuesday (8/21) high pressure at 1026 mbs was 1000 nmiles west of the CA-Oregon border barely ridging east but not making it to North California continuing a generally weak wind pattern nearshore. No windswell was being generated. More of the same is forecast Wed (8/22) a light local wind flow forecast for the entire CA coast offering no potential for windswell development. No real change is forecast for Thurs (8/23) except with the high at 1032 mbs moving east some and starting to generate north winds at 15 kts mainly off the coast of Cape Mendocino late afternoon but not generating any windswell of interest. Finally on Fri (8/24) a bit of a gradient is to set up over North CA courtesy of high pressure moving east and closer to the coast generating north winds at 20+ kts later over all of North CA and 15 kt north winds down over Central CA with some form of weak short period northwest windswell starting to be produced. See QuikCAST's for details.

Hawaii: On Tuesday (8/21) high pressure at 1026 mbs was in the Eastern Gulf of Alaska ridging south some producing easterly trades at 15+ kts starting 300 nmiles east of the Big Island and with the high interacting some with Hurricane Lane south-southeast of the Big Island producing additional fetch targeting the Big Island (see details concerning Lane in the Tropical Update below). On Wednesday (8/22) Lane is to be approaching the Islands from the south-southeast with 15 kt trades producing limited east windswell for all east facing shores of the Hawaiian Islands and building to 20 kts for the Big Island late. On Thurs (8/23) easterly winds to start building rapidly as Lane approaches from the south with east winds 20 kts early building to 25 kts later and east windswell on the increase. Friday (8/24) east to southeast winds to be 30 kts for all Islands early but Kauai and then fading to 25 kts as the day progresses. Windswell peaking. All this is dependent upon the track of Lane. See QuikCAST's for details.

 

  North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
Hurricane Lane: On Saturday AM (8/18) Lane was 1100 nmiles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii with winds 120 kts/135 mph tracking on a generally westerly course with seas estimated at 35 ft. Solid swell was being generated. This was supposedly Lanes peak. In the evening winds were down some at 115 kts/132 mph with seas 36 ft positioned 900 nmiles east-southeast of the Big Island. On Sunday AM (8/19) Lane continued on its previous heading with winds down to 105 kts (120 mph) positioned 730 nmiles east-southeast of Hilo HI with seas 33 ft and still generating swell. Lane continued on this heading and by Tues AM (8/21) it was 400 nmiles south-southeast of Hilo Hawaii with winds up significantly at 130 kts kts (150 mph) with seas 39 ft and expected to make a turn to the northwest over the next 24 hours positioned 280 nmiles south of Hilo on Wed AM (8/22) with winds 120 kts (138 mph) and tracking north-northwest. Lane is to be positioned 225 nmiles south of Maui on Thurs AM (8/23) with winds 100 kts (115 mph) tracking almost north and then moving to within 100 nmiles south of Honolulu on Fri AM (8/24) with winds 85 kts (98 mph). The official forecast track has Lane turning back to northwest then and just barely missing Kauai about 30 nmiles south of there on Sat AM (8/25) with winds 65 kts (minimal hurricane force) and tracking west. There's a high likelihood for solid easterly swell impacting the East Shore of the Big Island, and then south to southeast swell for Maui, Oahu and Kauai if the anticipated turn to the north occurs as forecast. Also windswell is expected for the east shores of all islands. Something to monitor.

Southeast Shore of the Big Island: Swell fading Tues AM (8/21) from 5.9 ft @ 12-13 secs (7.0 ft). Swell fading Wed AM (8/22) from 5.0 ft @ 8-12 secs (5.0-6.0 ft). Swell Direction: 110 degrees

Oahu - South Shore: Possible swell building later on Wed (8/22) to 4.6 ft @ 13-14 secs late (6.0 ft) building Thurs afternoon (8/23) to 6.3 ft @ 12-13 secs (7.5 ft). Swell fading fast Fri AM (8/24) from 5 ft @ 10 secs (5 ft). Swell Direction: 140 degrees

Otherwise no swell producing tropical systems were being monitored.

 

California Nearshore Forecast
On Tuesday (8/21) north winds were 10 kts or less for all of North and Central CA and that pattern is to continue Wednesday and Thurs (8/23). Friday (8/24) north winds are to build to 20 kts over Cape Mendocino down to Pt Arena with 15 kts north winds building for all of Central CA later afternoon and then holding thereafter through Tues AM (8/28).

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Tuesday AM (8/21) the southern branch of the jetstream was weak running zonally west to east on the 63S latitude line barley over the northern edge of the Ross Ice Shelf with winds up to 100 kts in two pockets but otherwise 80 kts or less offering no support for gale development and with no troughs indicated. Over the next 72 hours no change is forecast but with a ridge starting to build southward later Thurs (8/23) into Fri (8/24) over the Southwest Pacific and pushing into Antarctica later further suppressing support for gale development. Beyond 72 hours starting Sat (8/25) the ridge is to start dissolving and by Sun (8/26) a trough is to build under New Zealand with winds 130 kts lifting up to 55S perhaps offering some support for gale development. That trough is to be reinforced and building north into Mon (8/27) up at 54S at 170W and is to be sweeping east from there into Tues (8/28) being fed by 110-120 kts winds offering some decent support for gale development. Finally an improved pattern looks possible.

Surface Analysis  
On Tuesday (8/21) no swell of interest was hitting nor being generated.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast. A gale is forecast producing 32 ft seas southwest of New Zealand on Fri (8/24) but generally falling southeast and dissipating later in the day offering no real swell production potential.

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

Windswell Forecast
California:
On Sat (8/25) broad high pressure at 1034 mbs is to be filling the Central Gulf ridging east producing a small area of north winds at 20+ kts over North CA down to Pt Arena and 15 kt north winds from there down to Pt Conception generating limited north windswell. More of the same is forecast Sun-Tues (8/28) with north winds 20+ kts from Pt Arena northward and 15 kts along the remainder of North CA and all of the Central CA coast. Modest raw short period north windswell is expected to result at exposed north facing breaks.

Hawaii: On Saturday (8/25) Lane is to be exiting south of Kauai tracking west with high pressure holding solid in the Gulf of Alaska at 1036 mbs generating a gradient and east winds at 20 kts from a point 400 nmiles east of the Big Island sweeping over all the Islands resulting in solid raw east windswell for exposed east facing shores. A weaker east wind pattern is forecast on Sun (8/26) with east winds 20 kts mainly for Oahu and Kauai and holding through the day. More of the same is forecast Mon (8/27) with east winds 15-20 kts and moderate but raw easterly windswell continuing. More of the same on Tues (8/28) too.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast. A series of weak and fleeting gales are to fire up southeast of New Zealand Sun-Tues (8/28) but not generating seas greater than 30 ft and lasting only 12 hours at most with no swell resulting.

Details to follow...

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

ESPI Rising - SOI Falling - Kelvin Wave #2 Building

The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).

Overview: La Nina started developing in early 2016, but westward displaced and generally weak. And by March 2017, it was gone with suspicious warming developing along South America and over the Galapagos to a point south of Hawaii. By May the atmosphere returned to a neutral configuration but then in July east anomalies started building in the KWGA and have not stopped, with cold water upwelling over the the Nino1.2 and 3.4 areas, indicative of La Nina. A double dip La Nina was in control and continued through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and was building over equatorial waters in July, suggesting the demise of La Nina and possibly turning towards El Nino.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall/Winter 2018 (California & Hawaii) = 6.5
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: Assuming the PDO has moved to the warm phase and that El Nino develops as forecast, and assuming and an ocean-atmospheric coupling becomes established in the Sept timeframe and ocean temperature anomalies in Nino3.4 build to the +1.0 deg range, there is good probability for enhanced storm production in the North Pacific starting in the late Nov timeframe (specifically the Gulf of Alaska and Dateline regions) with an increased intensity in number of storm days and storm intensity, resulting in increased odds for larger than normal swell, with increased duration and higher than normal period.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast:
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of Mon (8/20) 5 day average winds were solidly from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific then weakening south of Hawaii and turning near calm from 170W and points west of there filling the Kelvin Wave Generation Area. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and neutral west of there over the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (8/21) Light east anomalies were filling the KWGA and forecast to hold through the end of the model run on 8/28. A short lived Westerly Wind Burst (2 week duration 8/7-8/17) is over.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: (8/19) A weak Active/Wet MJO signal was over the west KWGA. The statistical model depicts that an Active/Wet MJO signal is to hold unchanged through the 2 week model run. The dynamic model depicts the same thing though weaker. The models are in sync.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (8/20) The ECMF model depicts the Active Phase of the MJO was weak and positioned over the Maritime Continent. It is to remain generally weak while drifting east to the West Pacific over the next 2 weeks. The GEFS model depicts the same thing initially but with the Active Phase holding stationary over the Maritime Continent.
40 day Upper Level Model: (8/19) This model depicts a weak Active/Wet MJO signal was over the dateline region and is to be easing east over Central America on 9/13. A weak Inactive/Dry pattern is to follow in the West Pacific starting 8/27 making slow east headway reaching the East Pacific at the end of the model run on 9/28. At that time a weak Active/Wet pattern is to be developing over the far West Pacific.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (8/20) This model depicts neutral anomalies over the KWGA today driven by Equatorial Rossby Wave. The forecast indicates that wave is to be gone in the next 5 days with westerly anomalies starting to rebuild from the dateline to the west and filling the KWGA 8/27 and holding there after. By 9/1 west anomalies are to be building to WWB status and holding through the end of the model run on 9/17. Basically non-stop west anomalies are on the charts for the next month. It certainly smells of El Nino if the model is correct.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (8/21) This model depicts the Inactive/Dry Phase of the MJO was weakly building over the far West Pacific with neutral wind anomalies in play. The Inactive MJO signal is to hold through 9/6 with modest west anomalies rebuilding in KWGA starting 8/27 and holding. A neutral phase of the MJO is to hold 9/7-10/8 but with moderate west anomalies in the KWGA bordering on WWB status. The Active Phase is to build some 10/10 through 11/4 with westerly anomalies holding if not building to WWB status. A weak Inactive Phase to follow through the end of the model run 11/7-11/18 but with west anomalies continuing. The low pass filter indicates a low pressure bias is fully in control of the KWGA reaching east to 145W and built from 2 contour lines to 3 on 7/8 then building in coverage 7/24 and is to hold solid through the end of the model run. This means we are biased towards El Nino through the coming Fall season. The eastern edge of the Low Pressure bias is to ease east to 120W (over California) by 10/6. The high pressure bias is currently limited to an area south of California and shrinking steadily and is to be gone by 9/20. The atmosphere and ocean are slowly becoming coupled towards an El Nino bias and were originally thought to reach that state 3 months after the start of when the low pressure bias officially filled the KWGA (on 5/8) or on 8/8. But the coupling is developing a bit less aggressively than expected, so we're thinking coupling should occur more like 8/28 now. This pattern is more favorable to support storm production in the Pacific.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (8/21) Today in the far West Pacific water temps are 30 degs and migrating east now to 168E. The 28 deg isotherm line started to retrograde west from 148W on 7/2 to 153W on 7/10 and to 163W on 8/10). It started moving east again reaching to 158W on 8/16 due to development of Kelvin Wave #2 under the West Pacific, but today has retreated to 161W. The 24 deg isotherm was 100 meters deep at 140W but retracted from the coast of Ecuador and was breaching the surface at 125W on 8/10. Today it is moving east again at 112W. Anomaly wise warm waters associated with the February Kelvin Wave are gone with neutral anomalies in the far East equatorial Pacific pushing into Ecuador. To the west warm anomalies are building indicative of the new Kelvin Wave (#2) at +3 degs centered under 170W down 150 meters and with a finger of +1.0 degs anomalies reaching east to 130W. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 8/16 is a little more optimistic, with remnants of the first Kelvin Wave still holding over a shallow area in the East Pacific from 140W eastward building to +1.5 degs centered at 115W extending east to 105W and not reaching Ecuador. It was breaching the surface between 120W-140W and losing coverage. The Second Kelvin Wave was pushing east from the Maritime Continent spilling into the West Pacific pushing under the dateline at +4.0 degs reaching east to 130W and building in coherency with broken fragments of warm water joining the existing Kelvin Wave east of there. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (8/16) Positive anomalies were solid from the Maritime Continent over the West Equatorial Pacific and dateline and broad in coverage east to 115W at +5-10 cms indicative of a new Kelvin Wave (#2) building. East of there it weakened some with 5 cms anomalies continuing in pockets east to 90W, but no further east, remnants of Kelvin Wave #1. There were no breaks over that entire area. No negative anomalies were indicated. El Nino appears to be developing.

Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (8/20) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate temps were neutral biased cool along the immediate coast of Peru and Chile and building that way. But solid warm anomalies were holding from Ecuador west on the equator to 115W and continuous aided by dissipation of easterly wind anomalies over this area. Moderate warm anomalies continued from 115W west of out to the dateline except for 2 small cool pockets at 115W and 130W. A broad area of generic warming was also filling the area north of the equator from Central America and South Mexico out to the dateline and very warm from North Mainland Mexico out to the dateline. The remnants of the La Nina cool pool were gone.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (8/20): An elongated area with pockets of alternating warming and cooling but biased in favor of cooling were strung along the equator from the Galapagos to 130W indicative of the end of Kelvin Wave #1's eruption coupled with a fading easterly wind burst over that area supporting cool upwelling. Temps were steady along the coasts of Chile and Peru. Cooling previously solid off Central West Africa has dissipated and are replaced with a warming pattern. And that warming trend appears to start being mirrored west of Ecuador.
Hi-res Overview: (8/20) An area of weak cool water was present along Chile and Peru. Of interest was mild warm water holding on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos with imbedded pockets of stronger warming and west from there to the dateline from 10S up to 20N, but with 2 pockets of cooler water at 115W and 125W. More coherent warming was on the equator from 135W to 140E. The remnant pocket of cool water from La Nina was limited to an area south of the equator starting at 4S between 140-160W and steadily loosing coverage.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (8/21) Today's temps were steady at -0.281 degs. That is up some but still lower than the big peak at +0.459 on 5/13. Overall temps here are steady in the -0.50 deg range and slowly rising.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (8/21) Today temps were falling some at +0.220, down from a peak at +0.490 on 7/2. Overall temps are holding steady in the +0.25 degs range the past month.

Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (8/21) The forecast calls for a steady increase from here forward rising in early Oct to +1.25 degs and to +1.55 degs in late Nov holding through January 2019 then slowly fading through April 2019 down to +1.05 degs. This suggests that perhaps El Nino is to build through the Fall of 2018. Most other models are also suggesting a possible turn to weak El Nino conditions by late Fall.
IRI Consensus Plume: The mid-July Plume depicts temps at +0.5 degs in July and are to slowly rise from here forward, to +0.6 in August and +0.8 in October and +1.0 in Nov and holding there into Feb 2019. See chart here - link. It looks like La Nina is fading out and a weak El Nino might develop. The CFSv2 is in the high end of that pack.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad) (8/21): The daily index was falling hard today at -20.70 and has been mostly negative the last 21 days. The 30 day average was falling today to -6.20 suggesting the Active Phase of the MJO was building. The 90 day average was falling at -3.28. The 90 degree average turned negative for the first time in a year on 6/30 suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern was building in the atmosphere. This is expected for a month more before falling into steady negative territory by mid August.
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): (8/21) Today the index was rising at +0.20. The reading from 8/14 (+0.11) was the first time it's turned positive in a year and beats the previous highest peak (-0.09 on 7/2). This suggest that perhaps El Nino is starting to get better coupled in the atmosphere. Recent points of interest in reverse chronological order are: -1.04 on 6/5, -0.70 on 5/20, -0.60 on 5/17, -0.36 on 5/11 and -0.38 on 5/10, -0.35 on 4/26, -1.02 on 4/5, -1.13 on 3/27. The trend suggests La Nina is all but gone. This index is a forerunner of what happens in the ocean by 2-3 months in developing El Nino and La Nina situations.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The PDO is weakly positive, even though La Nina is in play.
Per NOAAs index recent values: June 2017 +0.21, July -0.50, Aug -0.62, Sept -0.25, Oct -0.61, Nov -0.45, Dec -0.13, Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.88, July -0.23. This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO, even with La Nina, because the warm PDO appears to be dampening the effects of La Nina. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): June 2017 +0.79, July +0.10, Aug +0.09, Sept +0.32, Oct +0.05, Nov +0.15, Dec +0.50, Jan +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

 

****

External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave

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Stormsurf and Mavericks on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Mavericks Invitational Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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