Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt)/Buoy 239 (Lani): Seas were 3.0 ft @ 7.7 secs with swell 1.2 ft @ 15.0 secs from 199 degrees. Water temp 81.1 degs (Barbers Pt), 81.3 (Pearl Harbor 233), 81.5 (Lani 239).
Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 3.6 ft @ 11.8 secs with swell 1.7 ft @ 11.3 secs from 22 degrees. Water temp 81.1 degs.
Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.3 ft @ 13.7 secs with swell 2.1 ft @ 13.0 secs from 195 degrees. Wind northwest at 8-10 kts. Water temperature 72.9 degs, 70.9 (Topanga 103), 67.6 degs (Long Beach 215), 70.9 (Del Mar 153), 74.7 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 72.1 (Torrey Pines Outer 155). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 1.4 ft @ 13.3 secs from 195 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.0 ft @ 13.0 secs from 204 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.2 ft @ 13.0 secs from 188 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.2 ft @ 12.6 secs from 196 degrees. Water temp 72.7 degs.
Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 5.7 ft @ 7.7 secs with swell 4.2 ft @ 7.8 secs from 299 degrees and south swell 1.7 ft @ 13.5 secs from 189 degrees. Wind at buoy 46012 was northwest at 12-16 kts. Water temp 54.1 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 52.2 (Pt Reyes 46013), 54.0 (46026), NA (SF Bar 142), 60.6 (Pt Santa Cruz 254) and 54.9 (Monterey Bay 46042).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Sunday (9/4) North and Central CA had set waves at waist high on the sets coming from the north and fairly clean but with some texture and soft. Protected breaks were waist high or so and clean and soft and fairly lined up. At Santa Cruz surf was waist high on the rare sets and clean and soft. In Southern California/Ventura waves were waist high and lined up with decent form and fairly clean though wind was from the north at moderate velocity. Central Orange County had sets at head high and lined up and clean with decent form. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at chest to head high and super clean and lined up with good form when they came. North San Diego had sets at thigh to maybe waist high and weak and soft and fairly clean. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore had a few waist high sets and soft and clean. The East Shore was thigh to waist high and warbled if not chopped from modest east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Sunday (9/4) Hawaii had no swell of interest. California was getting minimal background swell from a gale previously in the deep South Central Pacific. Another another modest system developed in the deep Central South Pacific Sat-Mon (8/29) when a small gale developed in the deep Central South Pacific tracking northeast with seas in the 30-33 ft range. And a secondary gale developed from it in the upper Southeast Pacific on Thurs-Fri (9/2) producing a tiny area of 30 ft seas aimed north. Small swell from these systems are propagating north. And a broad gale is starting to develop south of New Zealand with 28-33 ft seas forecast through Mon (9/5) aimed northeast. Swell is likely to result. And yet another gale is possibly to develop in the Central South Pacific moving to the Southeast Pacific Thurs-Sun (9/11) with 30-34 ft seas aimed well northeast. Summer is not done with us yet.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Sunday (9/4) no swell was in the water relative to Hawaii or the US West Coast.

Tropical Update
On Sun AM (9/4) a tropical depression was 150 nmiles southt-southwest of Acapulco Mexico tracking west. Theoretically the depression is to build to tropical storm status then turning northwest on Tues AM (9/6) building to hurricane status and turning hard north-northwest in the evening with 80 kt winds and almost in the SCal (Dana Point) swell window but in the window and in it relative to Point Dume. This system is to continue tracking north-northwest building to 85 kts on Mon AM 99/12) and in the Scal swell window (all locations). Something to monitor.

Mon AM (9/5) northwest winds are to be 20-25 kts over the coast of North CA with northwest winds 10 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon the gradient builds over North CA at 25 kts with northwest winds 10 kts from the Golden Gate southward. Windswell building.
Tues AM (9/6) northwest winds to fade to 20+ kts for all of North CA and 10 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon the gradient is to dissipate with 15 kts northwest winds lingering for Cape Mendocino and northwest winds 10 kts south of there. Windswell dissipating early.
Wed AM (9/7) northwest winds are forecast at 15 kts for Cape Mendocino and 5 kts or less south of there. In the afternoon no real change is forecast. No windswell forecast.
Thurs AM (9/8) the gradient starts building again with northwest winds 20-25 kts from Pt Arena northward ad northwest 5-10 kts south of there. In the afternoon more of the same is forecast but with northwest winds building to 20-30 kts north of Pt Arena and 15 kts south of there. Windswell building.
Fri AM (9/9) northwest winds to be 20-25 kts just off the coast of Cape Mendocino with northwest winds 10-15 ks south of there. No change in the afternoon but with winds 10 kts from the Golden Gate southward. Windswell fading.
Sat AM (9/10) northwest winds to be 15 kts over Cape Mendocino and 5-10 kts south of there. A light wind pattern is forecast for all of North and Central CA later. But all of this is dependent upon a potential tropical system pushing into the California area then.
Sun AM (9/11) a light pressure and wind pattern is to in control. A broad tropical systems is to be fading just off Southern CA. No windswell forecast.

Freezing level for the Tioga Pass Road is 14,000+ ft today and unchanged for the foreseeable future. A summertime pattern remains in effect. But....If the tropical systems moves into Southern CA as forecast the freezing level might fall to 12,500 ft on 9/10 and beyond.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Jetstream
On Sunday (9/4) the influential southern branch of the jetstream was digging out a broad trough under New Zealand being fed by 130-140 kts winds offering great support for gale development there. East of there a big ridge was pushing south suppressing gale development. Over the next 72 hours that trough is to push east while slowly losing energy and pretty much washed out over the Central South Pacific early Tues (9/6). Beyond 72 hours starting Thurs (9/8) another trough is to start building over the Central South Pacific being fed by 130 kts winds just barely clear of the northern edge of the Ross Ice Shelf then building dramatically late Fri (9/9) being fed by 170 kts winds lifting northeast over the Central and Southeast Pacific pushing east and then out of the Scal swell window by Sun (/11) offering good support for gale development. A possible late season surge in southern hemi activity to result.

Over the next 72 hours swell from a gale previously over the Central South Pacific is to be hitting California (see Another Central South Pacific Swell below). And that swell is to be reinforced by swell overlapping it later from a gale previously in the Southeast Pacific (see Southeast Pacific Gale below).

And a broad gale started developing south of New Zealand on Sat PM (9/3) producing 900 nmiles of southwest winds at 35-40 kts aimed north targeting primarily the Southern tip of New Zealand with seas building from 31 ft at 50.25S 165.25E and shadowed by New Zealand relative to Hawaii and CA. On Sun AM (9/4) a broad fetch of 40-45 kts south winds were free and clear of New Zealand with 29 ft seas at 48.25S 177.5E aimed northeast. In the evening a broad fetch of south to southwest winds at 35-45 kt was easing east with seas 33 ft at 55S 176E aimed northeast. On Mon AM (9/5) fetch is to be fading from 30- 35 kts from the southwest with seas 32 ft at 52S 176.5W aimed northeast. Fetch fading in the evening from 30-35 kts aimed northeast with seas 27 ft at 54S 166W aimed northeast. Fetch and seas dissipating from there. Something to monitor.

Hawaii: Rough data suggests swell arrival on Sat (9/10) building to 1.0 ft @ 18 secs late (1.5 ft). Swell building on Sun (9/11) to 1.8 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading on Mon (9/12) from 2.0 ft @ 15 secs early (3.0 ft). Swell continues on Tues (9/13) from 2.2 ft @ 15 secs early (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 206-202 degrees

Southern CA: Rough data suggests swell arrival on Tues (9/13) building to 1.4 ft @ 17-18 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell building on Wed (9/14) to 1.8 ft @ 17 secs midday (3.0 ft). Swell fading some on Thurs (9/15) from 1.9 ft @ 15-16 secs early (3.0 ft). Swell fading on Fri (9/16) from 1.7 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 213 degrees

North CA: Rough data suggests swell arrival on Tues (9/13) building to 1.4 ft @ 17-18 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell building on Wed (9/14) to 2.1 ft @ 17 secs midday (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell fading some on Thurs (9/15) from 2.2 ft @ 16 secs early (3.5 ft). Swell fading on Fri (9/16) from 2.0 ft @ 15 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 213 degrees

Another Central South Pacific Gale
On Sun (8/28) a gale developed over the deep South Central Pacific with 40 kts southwest winds on the north edge of the Ross Ice Shelf getting traction on ice free waters and producing 28 ft seas at 60S 160.75W aimed east-northeast. In the evening 40 kt southwest winds lifted northeast with seas building in coverage at 29 ft at 56.5S 153W aimed northeast. On Mon AM (8/29) 40-45 kt southwest winds continued tracking east-northeast with seas building to 31 ft at 51.25S 137.5W aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds were 40+ kts on the eastern edge of the CA swell window with 33 ft seas at 50.75S 127W aimed northeast and poised to move out of the CA swell window while fading after that. No additional fetch occurred beyond.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon (9/5) building to 1.6 ft @ 19 secs later (3.0 ft). Swell building on Tues (9/6) to 2.2 ft @ 16-17 secs later (3.5 ft). Swell steady on Wed (9/7) at 2.4 ft @ 15-16 secs early (3.5 ft). Swell fading on Thurs (9/8) from 2.2 ft @ 14-15 secs early (3.0 ft) with new south swell starting to take over (see below). Swell Direction: 200 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon (9/5) building to 1.5 ft @ 19 secs late (3.0 ft). Swell building on Tues (9/6) to 2.1 ft @ 17-18 secs midday (3.5 ft). Swell steady on Wed (9/7) at 2.4 ft @ 15-16 secs early (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell fading on Thurs (9/8) from 2.4 ft @ 14-15 secs early (3.5 ft) with new south swell starting to take over (see below). Swell Direction: 195 degrees

Southeast Pacific Gale
Another small gale developed in the upper reaches of the Central South Pacific Wed PM (8/31) producing 35-40 kt south winds aimed well north but over a small area with seas building to 26 ft at 48S 138.5W aimed north. On Thurs AM (9/1) 45 kts south winds built slightly in coverage while lifting northeast with seas 26-28 ft over a slightly broader area at 48S 130W aimed northeast. Fetch was fading in the evening from 35 kts while still lifting northeast with seas 28 ft at 44S 125W aimed north. Fetch was fading Fri AM (9/2) from 35 kts from the south with seas fading from 25 ft at 39S 122W aimed north.

Southern CA: Rough data suggest swell arriving on Thurs (9/8) building to 1.3 ft @ 17-18 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell building on Fri (9/9) to 1.8 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5-3.0 ft) mid-day. Swell fading Sat (9/10) from 1.9 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading Sun (9/11) from 1.8 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 192 degrees

North CA: Rough data suggests swell arrival on Fri (9/9) building to 1.4 ft @ 16 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell continues on Sat (9/10) at 2.1 ft at 14-15 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fading Sun (9/11) from 2.0 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 188 degrees

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours a new gale is forecast developing southwest of New Zealand just off the Ross Ice Shelf on Thurs AM (9/8) producing southwest winds at 40 kts over a solid area aimed northeast with seas building from 30 ft at 59S 176.5W aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds to be lifting northeast fast at 35-40 kts with seas 31 ft at 58.25S 159.75W aimed northeast. The gale is to build Fri AM (9/9) with a broad area of 40 kt southwest winds and seas to 31 ft at 54S 142.75W aimed northeast. In the evening the gale is to be over the Southeast Pacific with 35-45 kts southwest winds and seas 29 ft at 52S 130W aimed northeast. Fetch is to build on Sat AM (9/10) at 35-40 kts from the southwest and seas building to 31 ft at 50S 131W aimed northeast. The gale is to stall in the evening at 35-40 kts with seas 35 ft at 50S 129/75W aimed northeast. The gale is to push east Sun AM (9/11) at 35-40 kts with seas fading from 30 ft at 50S 120W aimed northeast. Something to monitor.

Upwelling Phase Underway
Models Suggesting this to be the Final La Nina Surge
Cool subsurface water volume peaked under the equatorial Pacific on 10/15/21, faded in May and June 2022, but is stating to rebuild in late July. A Kelvin Wave traversed the equatorial Pacific May-June, but was discharged by late July. The SOI appears to be past its peak. La Nina conditions are projected reinforcing in Nino3.4 in Fall then fading by Winter turning neutral. Overall cool water volume over the entire equatorial Pacific is to be fading steadily from here forward. The outlook is turning more optimistic.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead. But cold water returned in July 2021 and a second pulse of La Nina developed through the Winter of 2022 and is continuing today, though possibly weaker with its foundation appearing to be in decline.

Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But La Nina made a strong return by the end of Sept much like what the CFS model suggested would happen and a full double dip pattern took hold through the Winter of 21/22. But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late December 2022 with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Jan. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter 2022. But by later in Jan or early Feb 2023 a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. As a result a significantly reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct 22-Jan 23, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by Feb 2023, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The net result is we're currently thinking a near normal number of swells with normal size and duration is to result, but all focused sometime after Jan 2023. The swell pattern will be below normal before Jan and above normal after Jan 23 with the average of the two being 'normal'. Of course this is all highly speculative at this early date.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (9/3) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and modest east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (9/4) Strong east anomalies were filling the KWGA today. The 7 day forecast calls for strong east anomalies holding over KWGA focused at 160E.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (9/3) A neutral MJO signal was indicated today over the KWGA. The statistical model indicates a neutral MJO holding over the KWGA for the next 15 days. The dynamic model suggests the same thing. The models are in sync.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (9/4) The statistical model depicts the Active signal was weak over Maritime Continent and is to slowly plod east reaching the West Pacific 15 days out at very weak status. The dynamic model suggest the Active Phase meandering over the Maritime Continent and very weak over the next 15 days.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (9/4) A solid Active MJO signal (wet air) was over the Maritime Continent with a neutral MJO over the Pacific Ocean today. The forecast depicts the Active Phase moving east over the KWGA on 9/9 traversing the equatorial Pacific and pushing into Ecuador on 9/29. The Inactive Phase (dry air) is to start building over the over KWGA on 10/4 pushing east and filling the KWGA and most of the equatorial Pacific at the end of the model run on 10/14.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (9/3) The Inactive Phase of the MJO was over the KWGA today with strong east anomalies also filling the KWGA. Looking forward the Inactive Phase is to track east and fade on 9/18 south of Hawaii with strong east anomalies peaking 9/10 and holding in some degree through 9/18. The Active Phase of the MJO is to start building strong over the Maritime Continent weakly pushing into the KWGA into 9/20 with neutral anomalies in the far west KWGA and east anomalies at moderate status holding over the KWGA. Once the Active Phase fade east anomalies are to rebuild at moderate strength 9/24 through the end of the model run on 10/1.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (9/4) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today a pulse of the Inactive Phase is building over the KWGA and forecast to hold till 9/22. A weak pulse of the Active Phase trying to make headway into the KWGA 9/8-10/4 then fading with weak west anomalies building over the West KWGA. On 10/8 a coherent Active Phase of the MJO is to start pushing through the KWGA in earnest and in control through the end of the model run on 12/2 centered over the dateline if not east of there. West anomalies are to move from the Maritime Continent 10/2 bleeding east to about the dateline on 10/15 then holding if not fully moving east starting 11/11 and filling the KWGA at moderate plus status and easing east from there. this would be a huge change if it develops as forecast. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias with 2 contour lines centered at 180W with its western perimeter at 155E today. The second contour is to build into October then collapse on 11/2 with the western edge of the high pressure bias retrograding west to 145E at 10/15 then possibly starting to east east from there to 150E at the end of the model run. A broad double contour low pressure bias is established centered over the West Maritime Continent at 90E with it's leading edge at 130E today but is forecast retrograding to 125E on 10/10 then starting to east east slightly at the end of the model run. Of note, east anomalies which are and have been centered at 180W and are to continue to have some solid influence over the KWGA into early Oct, then dissipate completely thereafter with west anomalies taking over the KWGA beyond.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (9/4) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was gone, previously at 171E. The 28 deg isotherm line was backtracking to 168E from 180E. The 26 degree isotherm was backtracking to 153W. The 24 deg isotherm was backtracking from ecuador to 135W. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +2 deg C were in a pocket in the far West Pacific down 150m with it's leading edge stuck at 150W, A pocket of cool anomalies at -2 degs C were centered at 120W and filling the area from 145W and points east of there. The remnants of a previous Kevin Wave were at +1 degs in the East Pacific off Ecuador starting at 115W. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 8/31 indicates the same broad area of warm anomalies in the west pushing east to 155W and far warmer. A cool pocket was filling the area east of 155W and reaching the surface. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (8/31) Sea heights were stabilizing over the Equatorial Pacific. A broad pocket of positive anomalies were over the equator in the far West Pacific reaching east to only 165E. A pocket of negative anomalies were fading in intensity from 105W to 155W with a core down from -15 cms to -10 cms at 130W. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram cool anomalies were positioned in the Central Equatorial Pacific between 155W to 105W and easing east slightly. A cool cycle is underway but easing east. Hopefully it is only a single pulse similar to the last one in March and not a triple pulse like last year at this time. If a second pulse develops, La Nina will last through the Winter and the models will all be wrong.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (9/3) The latest images depict a broad generic pool of cool water extending west from Chile and Peru to the dateline and filling well south of the equator. The coolest water was on the equator between 105W-140W. An area of warm water was present on the equator from Ecuador west to 140W but mostly just north of the equator starting at 2N. A weak area of warm water was present north of the equator (15 deg N) extending off mainland Mexico to 145W. Overall this indicates the late stages of La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (9/3): A string of small cool pockets were on the equator between Ecuador to 130W. Cooling has the edge today.
Hi-res Overview: (9/3) Persistent cool waters cover a large area from Ecuador to 160E on and south of the equator from South America down at 20S with the coolest waters between 110W to 180W on the equator. Warmer than normal waters were on the equator in the east aligned in a thin stream from Ecuador to 110W starting on the equator and points north of there. La Nina remains in control over the East Equatorial Pacific and the density and intensity of the cooling appears to be building some on the equator with warm water from a previous Kelvin Wave breaking up over the East equatorial Pacific.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (9/4) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs compared to official sources). Today's temps have stabilized at -1.165 degs and have been in the -1.0 range since 7/29. Temp were down on 7/20 to -1.6 degs. Previously temps were stable near -1.4 degrees 6/12 through 7/27. Peaks in that time frame were -1.189 (7/7), -1.534 (7/5). Previously temps were at -1.822 on 6/9 after being up to -1.506 (5/21) and that after hovering around -2.0 degs since 4/21/22. Prior to that temps were fading after peaking at +0.760 on 3/18. Temps had been moving upwards since 2/20, and beat a previous high of -0.650 degs on 1/9 and that after being down at -1.871 on 1/3/22 and -1.954 on 12/18/21, the lowest this year so far. Previously temps dropped on 11/24/21 at -1.700, the lowest in months after previously toggling steady at about -0.6 degs from mid Aug to Oct 6, then falling from there. That year temps bottomed out at -2.138 on 8/13/20. The longterm trend has been steadily downward.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (9/4) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs). Today's temps are falling some at -1.012 after previously stabilized at -0.856 after falling to -0.984 on 8/22. Temps have been falling since 7/15 reaching La Nina threshold on 7/27 after being more or less steady the previous 3 weeks peaking at -0.25 on 7/14 and -0.275 on 7/5. Previously temps had been on an upward trend since 5/15/22 rising to -0.414 degs (6/19) and -0.493 on 6/9, the first reading above La Nina threshold values since Sept 2021. Temps were down to -0.929 (5/2/22) and that after rising to a peak at -0.704 on 3/27 and had been on a gentle rising trend since falling to -1.012 on 3/8. Previously temps were rising slightly to -0.505 on 2/2 and that after reaching a peak low of -1.096 on 1/3/22 beating the previous low of -1.080 on 11/2/21, the lowest in a year. Prior to that temps had been in a freefall starting from the -0.175 range in early Sept/21. Before that temps peaked up at 7/1/21 +0.332, the highest in a year. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March 2021. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3/2020.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data
Previous - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022 then fading to -1.1 degs in May before starting an upward climb peaking in mid-June at -0.65 degs and mid July at -0.55 degs. A steady decline set in after that falling to -1.05 degs in Aug.
Forecast (9/4) - Temps are to be falling from about -1.0 degs in Sept to -1.40 degs in Nov then start a quick rise beyond and reaching above the La Nina threshold in Feb 2023 and up to +0.50 degs in May and heading up from there presumably. This model suggests we are going to steadily transition towards ENSO neutral in Dec. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps bottomed out at -1.00 in mid Aug and are to hold falling slightly to -1.05 degs in Nov then starting a steady upward climb rising above La Nina threshold in Feb and rising from there forward to +0.30 degs in April/May. According to this version of the model we will hold in weak La Nina conditions through Fall before starting a trend towards neutrality in Dec. That said - the surface temp coverage model suggests a temps holding steady through Oct. then a steady erosion of the coldest waters south of Nino3.4 (down at 20S) to begin. By Dec a clear discharge of La Nina is to be nearly complete with near neutral temps prevailing over the entire equatorial Pacific and turning fully neutral in Jan and beyond into Feb. The greater equatorial Pacific cool signature looks to hold through mid-Oct then quickly dissolving beyond.
IRI Consensus Plume: The August 19, 2022 Plume depicts temps are -0.809 degs today. Temps to fall more to -0.862 in Oct then are to warm to the La Nina threshold at -0.589 in Dec and -0.393 in Jan rising to +0.182 in April. This model suggests a continuation of minimal La Nina temps through early Dec then transitioning to ENSO neutral. This model is in line with the CFS model.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (9/4) the Daily Index was steady at +16.28. Previous peaks were at +33.57 (5/24), +40.77 (5/10), +31.44 (4/27), +31.80 (4/6), +27.33 (1/31) and +46.71 (12/26). The trend has been solidly positive but starting in July weakness is starting to take hold. Previous other notable peaks were +30.98 (11/26), +36.90 (9/28), +27.75 ( 9/13) and +37.86 (7/15).
The 30 day average was rising falling at +7.91 after falling to +6.89 on 7/29. It peaked at +20.34 (5/12) the highest in a year and beating last years high of +19.51 (1/14).
The 90 day average was steady at +11.16 previously down at +12.92 on 8/11 and that after peaking at +18.40 (7/2) beating it's previous peak of +16.86 (5/31), the highest in a year. It previously peaked at +9.80 (9/21) after falling to it's lowest point in a year at +1.06 (6/9). The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 (2/23/21 - clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggest La Nina is returning.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.