Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 3.1 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 1.9 ft @ 8.4 secs from 176 degrees. Water temp 81.7 (Barbers Pt), 81.3 (Pearl Harbor 233), 81.1 (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 4.8 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 3.6 ft @ 6.6 secs from 83 degrees. Water temp 79.9 degs
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 2.6 ft @ 7.1 secs with swell 1.9 ft @ 6.2 secs from 25 degrees. Water temp 80.6 degs
Buoy 46069 (S. Santa Rose Is): Seas were 4.8 ft @ 10.0 secs with swell 3.8 ft @ 9.4 secs from 312 degrees. Wind northwest at 4-8 kts. Water temperature 61.0 degs, 60.3 (Harvest 071), 71.6 (Topanga 103), 67.3 (Long Beach 215), 73.0 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 72.9 (Del Mar 153), 71.1 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 5.0 ft @ 8.9 secs from 307 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 2.6 ft @ 9.9 secs from 275 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.1 ft @ 15.9 secs from 201 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.1 ft @ 15.7 secs from 197 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.7 ft @ 15.8 secs from 189 degrees. Water temperature was 69.6 degrees (Imperial Beach).
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes)/Buoy 157 (Pt Sur): Seas were 6.6 ft @ 8.3 secs with local windswell 5.1 ft @ 8.0 secs from 318 degrees. Wind southeast 4-8 kts (Bodega Bay 46013) and WSW 4-5 kts (Half Moon Bay 1801593) and N at 2 kts (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 55.6 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 55.9 (San Francisco 46026), 57.6 (SF Bar 142), 58.5 (Half Moon Bay 1801583), 56.5 (Monterey Bay 46092) and 60.3 (Aptos Creek 275).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Saturday (9/14) in North and Central CA waves were waist to chest high and and weakly lined up and very warbled and mushed from local northwest wind with high fog early. Protected breaks had sets at waist to near chest high and lined up and a bit closed out but clean and soft with fog just off the coast. At Santa Cruz surf was thigh to almost waist high on occasion and clean and soft and inconsistent. In Southern California/Ventura waves were waist high and lined up and clean but soft with no wind. Central Orange County had sets at waist to near near chest high on the peaks and lined up but weak and textured and soft but not warbled. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had set waves at waist to near chest high on occasion and weakly lined up and soft but clean. North San Diego had sets to chest to near shoulder high and real lined up if not closed out and fairly clean. Oahu's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore had some thigh high plus sized sets and weakly lined up and clean but very soft. The East Shore was getting east windswell at waist high and warbled from moderate easterly trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Saturday (9/14) no real swell of interest was hitting Hawaii or California though local northwest windswell was hitting North and Central CA and primer New Zealand swell was lapping into Southern CA. Down south a primer gale passed south of New Zealand Thurs-Fri (9/6) with 29 ft seas aimed east and was followed directly by a stronger gale Sat (9/7) tracking east with up to 38 ft seas aimed east. Primer swell is hitting now with slightly larger swell tracking northeast towards the mainland. Nothing else to follow either north or south. There still appears to be no momentum in the atmosphere to fuel storm development as we wait for Fall pattern to set up and hopefully break the log jam.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Saturday AM (9/14) the jet was consolidated tracking east off the Southern Kuril Islands on the 45N latitude line reaching to the dateline then ridging northeast pushing over the Aleutians into the East bering Sea then falling hard south forming a trough off British Columbia before turning east and pushing inland over Washington. No real support for gale development indicated but support for weather is indicated for the Pacific Northwest. Over the next 72 hours that trough is to fall south down the US Coast moving inland over Monterey Bay on Mon (9/16) supporting weather pushing down the coast to there. In the west the same pattern is hold. Beyond 72 hours starting Tues (9/17) more of the same is forecast with the jet generally pushing east off the South Kuril Islands on the 45N latitude line then ridging northeast over the Gulf before falling south off British Columbia on Tues (9/17) forming another trough that is to again push south and inland over Monterey Bay early Thurs (9/19) producing more weather there. The jet in the west is to generally still track east on the 45N latitude line with winds 160+ kts but perhaps keep pushing east south of the Aleutians over the Gulf on Sat (9/21) offering hope beyond.

Surface Analysis
On Saturday (9/14) no swell producing weather systems of interest or swell were in the water.

Over the next 72 hours no clearly defined swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Sun AM (9/15) northwest winds to be 15-20 kts for North CA and 10-15 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 20 kts for North CA and 10-15 kts for Central CA. No meaningful windswell is forecast. Local northwest windswell building some.
Mon AM (9/16) a new gradient sets up with high pressure building and northwest winds 20-25 kts for all of North CA and 10 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds fade from 20 kts for North CA and 10 kts for Central CA. Maybe some light rain for North CA in the morning. Windswell fading some.
Tues AM (9/17) northwest winds to be 10-15 kts for North CA early and 10-15 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 10-15 kts for both North and Central CA. Minimal short period windswell possible.
Wed AM (9/18) northwest winds to be 10 kts early for all of North and Central CA but 15 kts south of Monterey Bay. In the afternoon northwest winds to build some at 15-20 kts for North CA and only 10 kts for Central CA. Small windswell holding.
Thurs AM (9/19) northwest winds to be holding at 15-20 kts for all of North CA and 10 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 20+ kts for Cape Mendocino and 10 kts south of there and all of Central CA. Windswell holding.
Fri AM (9/20) northwest winds to be 20+ kts for Cape Mendocino and 10 kts south of there. No real change in the afternoon. Small northwest windswell continuing.
Sat AM (9/21) northwest winds are to be fading from 20 kts early for Cape Mendocino and 5-10 kts south of there. Windswell fading out.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 0, 0 , 0 and 5.6 inches inches respectively all on Mon-Wed (9/18).

Temperatures for the intersection of Tioga Pass Road and the John Muir Trail (Toulomne Meadows - 8700 ft): Freeze Level falling to 12,500 ft on Sat (9/14) then down to 7,000 ft on Sun-Mon (9/16) rebounding to 10.500 ft late Mon (9/16) then falling again to 8.500 ft Wed-Thurs (9/19) before rising eventually above 14,000 ft. At the intersection level (8,700 ft) temps to be 50-55 degs before falling to 25-30 degrees late Sun (9/15) into Monday rebuilding to 40-45 degs late Mon (9/16) then falling again to 39 degs late Tues into early Thurs (9/19) then generally 50 degrees beyond.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Surface Analysis
A primer gale developed while passing east under New Zealand with swell from it now hitting Southern CA (see Primer Gale below).

And a stronger gale passed east under New Zealand directly behind (see New Zealand Gale below) .

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

Primer Gale
A small primer gale developed Thurs AM (9/5) just south of New Zealand with 35-40 kts west winds and seas building from 23 ft. In the evening west winds built to 40 kts over a small area due south of New Zealand with seas building to 30 ft at 56S 161.25E aimed east. The gale faded Fri AM (9/6) with 30-35 kt west winds and seas 24 ft at 56.25S 175.25E aimed east. No meaningful swell to result but this gale served to rough up the oceans surface.

Southern CA: Swell peaking on Sat (9/14) at 1.2 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.0 ft). Residuals on Sun (9/15) fading from 1.2 ft @ 14 secs (1.5 ft) early. Swell Direction: 217 degrees

North CA: Swell peaking on Sat (9/14) at 1.2 ft @ 16 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Residuals on Sun (9/15) fading from 1.0 ft @ 14-15 secs (1.5 ft) early. Swell Direction: 216 degrees

New Zealand Gale
On Fri AM (9/6) a gale was developing a bit north of the same area of the ocean roughed up by the primer gale (above) just southwest of New Zealand producing 40-45 kts west winds and seas building from 25 ft at 48.75S 155.5E aimed east. In the evening the gael built while tracking east just south of New Zealand with southwest winds 50-55 kts and seas 35 ft at 50.5S 165.75E aimed east. On Sat AM (9/7) the gale tracked east with southwest winds fading from 45 kts and seas 37-38 ft at 51.75S 175.25E. In the evening the gale was fading while tracking east with west winds 30-35 kts over a decent area and seas fading from 32 ft at 50.75S 177.5W aimed east. Fetch was fading Sun AM (9/8) from 30 kts over a broad area with seas 26 ft at 48.5S 171.75W aimed east. The gale to dissipate from there. Small swell is likely tracking northeast.

Oahu: Expect sideband swell arriving on Sat (7/14) building to 1.0 ft @ 16-17 secs later (1.5 ft). Swell peaking on Sun (7/15) at 1.0-1.1 ft @ 14-15 secs (1.5 ft). Swell fading Mon (7/16) from 1.0 ft @ 13-14 secs early (1.0-1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 198 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon (9/16) building to 1.0 ft @ 17-18 secs late (1.5 ft). Swell peaking on Tues (9/17) at 1.1 ft @ 16-17 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell continues on Wed (9/18) at 1.2 ft @ 15-16 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). swell fading Thurs (9/19) from 1.2 ft @ 14-15 secs (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 217 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon (9/16) building to 0.9 ft @ 17-18 secs late (1.5 ft). Swell peaking on Tues (9/17) at 1.1 ft @ 16-17 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell continues on Wed (9/18) at 1.2 ft @ 15-16 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell fading Thurs (9/19) from 1.0 ft @ 14-15 secs (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 216 degrees

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast. But at 180 hours out the model are suggesting 2 small gales with seas in the 18-20 ft range are forecast, one in the Northern Gulf and the other just west of the North Dateline region. Low odds of this actually happening.

ENSO Neutral Trying Weakly to Turn to La Nina
Models Waffle on La Nina Strength Ahead
9 Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But that is over and cold water has traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific and is starting to erupt off the coast of Ecuador with the remaining warm pool created by El Nino starting to dissipate in the East Equatorial Pacific. Regardless, the atmosphere is still weakly in El Nino mode and will continue from previous momentum while slowly fading through Fall of 2024.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023.

Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 10 Active MJO's produced 9 Kelvin Waves from Dec 2022 through Dec 2023 resulting in El Nino. The CFS model is predicting steady weal easterly anomalies over the KWGA with the low pressure bias moving over the Maritime Continent and a high pressure bias setting up over the dateline region. We are now in a fading El Nino pattern with La Nina forecast and trying to develop over the Pacific. But, the Summer after a strong El Nino Winter in the Pacific it is normal for the Southern hemi storm pattern to be stronger than normal and centered under New Zealand. The net result should be a somewhat above normal number of swells with above normal size and duration originating under New Zealand.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (9/13) Water sensors are down in the east. Hoping a sensor upgrade is in works. 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and modest east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (9/14) Today moderate east anomalies were filling the KWGA east of 150E and moderate west anomalies west of 150E. The forecast suggests the pattern holding for the next 3 days then east anomalies are to build in coverage filling the KWGA at modest strength with a few small pockets of west anomalies interspersed. A significant Inactive MJO is holding.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (9/13) Currently a weak Active MJO pattern (wet air) was over the West KWGA. The statistic model depicts the Active MJO (wet air) holding on day 5 of the model and gone with a neutral MJO pattern forecast on day 10 and 15 of the model run. The dynamic model depicts the Active MJO building to strong status on days 5 then slowly weakening and still present but weak on day 15 of the model run. These 2 models are in disagreement.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (9/14) - The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was very weak over the East Maritime Continent. It is to move slowly east to the West Pacific over the next 2 weeks and very weak. The dynamic model depicts it building quickly to moderate strength over the far West Pacific 1 week out and then weakening to very weak status 2 weeks out fading over the West Pacific. Many other models suggest some version of this pattern.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (9/14) This model depicts a strong Active MJO pattern (wet air) moving east over the far West Pacific. The Active Phase is to slowly continue tracking east through the KWGA through 10/4 fading to modest status then pushing east of the KWGA. A strong Inactive pattern (dry air) to follow building over the KWGA 10/9 and taking control through the end of the model run on 10/24.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (9/13) Today the Active Phase was starting to build over the West KWGA while interacting with an Equatorial Rossby Wave producing moderate west anomalies filling 50% of the KWGA with moderate east anomalies filling the East KWGA. The forecast has the Active Phase tracking east and east of the KWGA on 9/30 with west anomalies filling the KWGA through 9/27 then collapsing with east anomalies rebuilding filling the KWGA at moderate strength through the end of the model run on 10/9. The Inactive Phase is to start showing in the KWGA on 10/4.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (9/14) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today the Active MJO was filling the KWGA and pushing east with west anomalies mostly filling the KWGA. The forecast indicates the Active MJO sliding east filling the KWGA through 10/2 with modest west anomalies in control. A weak Inactive Phase is to follow 9/28-10/24 with mostly weak east anomalies in control. Another Active Phase is to develop in the West starting 10/17 and pushing east through 11/17 with west anomalies filling the KWG. A weak Inactive MJO is to follow 11/20 through the end of the model run on 12/12 with west anomalies holding filling most of the Pacific. This continues to be a significant upgrade from model runs on mid-August and earlier. The low pass filter indicates the low pressure bias is over the Indian Ocean (starting 4/28) with one contour. A second contour is to appear 10/14-11/15 and the first contour reaching east to 120E initially then to 130E at the end of the model run. The high pressure bias started to develop in the Pacific on the dateline 5/4-8/3 then collapsed to nothing. It is to return weakly over the dateline 10/18 with 1 contour over a thin area and holding steady through the end of the model run but never having a second contour line and not significant in coverage. This is a major upgrade from previous runs (since Aug) suggesting La Nina much weaker than previous forecasts if not bordering on ENSO neutral.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (9/14) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 degree isotherm was gone (previously at 165E). The 29 degree isotherm was stable at 180W. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 170W. The 24 degree isotherm was pushing east the whole way across the Equatorial Pacific. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +1 degs in the far West Pacific and +1 degs in the East. A pool of cold anomalies at up to -3.0 degs were centered subsurface down 125m at 160W reaching to the surface at 160W but this is questionable due to lack of sensors east of 155W. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 9/10 clarifies the situation indicating cold anomalies reaching to the surface east of 150W filling the entire East Equatorial Pacific thermocline. And the density of warm anomalies west of there are thinning. La Nina is here. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (9/10) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative at -5 cms from Ecuador to the dateline with -10 cms between 95W-170W with a pocket of -15 cm anomalies were at 130W-145W. This suggests a cooling trend is building. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (9/10) cold water started filling the Equatorial Pacific early March then retracted in June, rebuilt in coverage mid-July, then retracted in Aug. Then cool anomalies again rebuilt over the equatorial Pacific early Sept from 180W to Ecuador and holding steady. A clear La Nina pattern is in play with warm water limited in coverage west of the dateline and cool water east of there to Ecuador.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (9/13) The latest images depict a La Nina cool stream has built on the equator from Ecuador west to 170E and broadest and getting consistent in coverage across its length and stronger compared to days past. This looks like the first real sense of a clear La Nina pattern this year. Residual warm anomalies from the remnants of El Nino were north and south of it across the Pacific. We are in a transitional phase moving from El Nino to La Nina but not strongly.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (9/13): A thin stream of weakly warming waters were on the equator from Ecuador to 120W and cooling water from there to 160W. No clear La Nina pulse was evident.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (9/14) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were generally steady (since 8/7) at -0.705 after reaching a low on 7/29 near -1.1 degs, falling the previous 3 weeks after briefly being up near +0.0 (7/7-7/11) after rising from -1.008 (on Tues 6/25). Previously the trend has been steady at roughly -0.750 since 5/14. Highlights from the recent past are -1.105 (5/28), -1.014 (5/16) rising to +0.184 degrees (5/2) after falling to -0.843 (4/21) and -0.565 on 4/1 and has been below 0 since 3/19.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (9/14) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were falling steadily to -0.845 and have been falling steadily in pulses since 6/30. Temps fell below the zero mark on 5/20 and but then rebuilt hovering near neutral 6/2 through 6/30. Previously temps have been in the +1.2 deg range since 3/11. Temps were at +1.2 degs or higher since 1/13. Temps had been in the +1.5 range 11/19-1/12.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were -0.1 (week of 9/4) and have been near neutral since 5/8/24. Weekly value were -0.2 (8/28), 0.0 (8/21), -0.1 degrees (8/14) +0.0 (8/7) -0.2 degrees (7/31) and the first week negative in a year, +0.1 (week of 7/24), +0.2 (7/17), +0.3 (7/10 and 7/3), +0.4 ( 6/26) +0.3 (6/19) +0.0 (week of 6/12) +0.1 (6/5 & 5/29) +0.2 degs (5/15 and 5/22), +0.3 (5/8), +0.5 (5/1), +0.8 (4/24), +0.7 (week of 4/17), +0.9 (4/10), +1.2 (week of 4/3), +1.0 (3/27), +1.3 (3/20), +1.1 degs (3/13), +1.4 (3/6), +1.3 (2/28), +1.5 (2/14 & 2/21) +1.7 (2/7), +1.8 (1/31). +1.7 (1/24 & 1/17) up at +1.9 (1/10 & 1/3), +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 (11/29) and +2.1 (11/22 - the highest), then +1.9 (11/15) and +1.8 degs (11/8 & 11/1).
Monthly Data is falling from +1.72 Oct, +2.02 Nov, +2.02 Dec and +1.82 Jan and +1.52 Feb, +1.12 March, +0.78 April, +0.24 May, +0.18 June, +0.05 July and -0.07 August.
3 Month ONI (centered relative) 3 month period is -0.44 (JJA), -0.39 (MJJ), -0.21 (AMJ), +0.07 MAM, +0.48 FMA, +0.86 JFM, 1.21 for DJF and +1.47 ft for NDJ (just short of minimal Super El Nino status) and +1.49 OND . All others were less than that.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May 2023, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan 2024 and +1.65 in Feb then down to +0.75 degs mid-April, +0.25 mid May and then 0.25 mid June and mid-July falling to -0.3 degs in mid-Aug.
Forecast (9/12) - Temps to fall to -0.50 mid-Sept and -1.20 degs in Nov 2024 before rebounding to neutral in April 2025. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same trend but with temps to -0.50 degs Sept and -0.80 in Oct then down to barely -1.00 degs in Nov. This is an upgrade. According to this version of the model we are moving to a weak La Nina.
IRI Consensus Plume: The August 19, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are -0.273 degs today and is the 3rd month below neutral since El Nino developed. Temps to fall steadily from here forward down to -0.393 in Sept (3 month running mean) then fading from there down to -0.492 in Nov then rising from there. This is an upgrade with temps previously forecast down to -0.944 (per the April model run). The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.616 in Nov and the Statistic down to -0.294 in Jan. Both these projections are higher than the month before.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (9/14) the Daily Index was negative at -2.91 and has been negative the last 8 days, positive 22 days previous. Over the past month it was a mix of positive and negative.
The 30 day average was falling at +10.21 and has been split between positive and negative the last month. Recent max lows were -19.26 on 2/20, -10.43 on 11/16 and -15.70 on 9/23.
The 90 day average was slowly inching falling at +0.89 and mostly negative the last month. This is the first positive value (on 9/5) since the demise of El Nino. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15.
We are in ENSO neutral status.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(Negative is bad, Positive is good) The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/2019 and hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling to -1.52 in March 2024, -2.12 April, -2.99 May, -3.16 in June, -2.99 July and -2.88 Aug. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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