Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 3.6 ft @ 11.1 secs with swell 2.4 ft @ 10.0 secs from 165 degrees. Water temp 82.4 (Barbers Pt), 80.8 (Pearl Harbor 233), 81.7 (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 4.8 ft @ 7.7 secs with swell 3.6 ft @ 7.6 secs from 77 degrees. Water temp 79.5 degs
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 3.6 ft @ 7.7 secs with swell 3.0 ft @ 6.6 secs from 36 degrees. Water temp 81.1 degs
Buoy 46069 (S. Santa Rose Is): Seas were 2.9 ft @ 14.7 secs with swell 1.6 ft @ 14.2 secs from 178 degrees. Wind northwest at 8-12 kts. Water temperature 61.9 degs, 60.4 (Harvest 071), 64.9 (Topanga 103), 65.7 (Long Beach 215), 69.6 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 70.7 (Del Mar 153), 70.7 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 1.3 ft @ 13.7 secs from 195 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 1.2 ft @ 8.0 secs from 290 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.1 ft @ 14.8 secs from 193 degrees. At Green Beach (271) swell was 1.3 ft @ 15.0 secs from 191 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.5 ft @ 15.0 secs from 191 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.7 ft @ 15.0 secs from 193 degrees. Water temperature was 70.0 degrees (Imperial Beach).
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes)/Buoy 157 (Pt Sur): Seas were 6.2 ft @ 6.7 secs with local windswell 4.0 ft @ 8.5 secs from 316 degrees and southern hemi swell 1.7 ft @ 13.4 secs from 214 degrees. Wind northwest 12-14 kts (Bodega Bay 46013) and WNW 5-7 kts (Half Moon Bay 1801593) and W at 12 kts (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 54.0 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 56.8 (San Francisco 46026), 58.3 (SF Bar 142), 57.7 (Half Moon Bay 1801583), 56.8 (Monterey Bay 46092) and 60.3 (Aptos Creek 275).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Thursday (9/19) in North and Central CA waves were waist high and weakly lined up and pretty warbled and mushed from modest local south wind. Protected breaks had sets at thigh to maybe waist high and lined up and very soft and mushed but fairly clean early. At Santa Cruz surf was rarely thigh high and mushed and clean and inconsistent. In Southern California/Ventura waves were flat to knee high and soft and clean. Central Orange County had sets at occasionally thigh high and weakly lined up and soft and clean. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had set waves at waist to chest high on the sets and weakly lined up with decent form and clean but soft. North San Diego had sets at waist to near chest high and lined up if not closed out on the sets and clean but with some intermixed warble. Oahu's North Shore was flat and clean with intermixed sideshore lump. The South Shore had some thigh high sets and weakly lined up and clean and very soft. The East Shore was getting east windswell at waist high and chopped from moderate easterly trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Thursday (9/19) the tail end of minimal southern hemi swell was hitting North and Central CA originating from the second and stronger of two gales that formed Sat (9/7) tracking east with up to 38 ft seas aimed east. Nothing else to follow from the southern hemi swell. For the North Pacific a gale is forecast developing just west of the dateline on Sat (9/21) with 29 ft seas pushing east and over the Western and Northern Gulf on Sun-Tues (9/24) with seas 24-25 ft aimed east before fading while approaching the Central Canadian Coast. Nothing else is forecast behind.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Thursday AM (9/19) the jet was consolidated tracking east off the Southern Kuril Islands on the 43N latitude line reaching to the dateline with winds 130-140 kts then gently lifting east-northeast while pushing over the Northern Gulf of Alaska just south of the East Aleutians with winds 120 kts before pushing into British Columbia. A weak trough was imbedded in the jet midway between the Kuril's and dateline offering hope for the future. Over the next 72 hours more of the same is forecast but with winds building to 150-160 kts from the Kuril's to the Western Gulf on Sat (9/21) with a gentle trough developing over the dateline offering support for gale formation. Beyond 72 hours that trough is to build more on Sun-Mon 99/23) while moving east to the Northwestern Gulf being fed by 170 kts winds offering good support for gale formation eventually pushing east to the Eastern Gulf on Tues-Wed (9/25) with 160 kts winds still feeding it. The trough is to move onshore over Vancouver Island late Wed. Back to the west the same general pattern is forecast but with winds rebuilding on Thurs (9/26) to 160 kts over the dateline feeding a newly developing trough there possibly supporting gale formation. Something to monitor.

Surface Analysis
On Thursday (9/19) no swell producing weather systems of interest or swell were in the water.

Over the next 72 hours a small gale is to develop just off the Kuril Islands Fri PM (9/20) producing a small area of 30-35 kt northwest winds trying to get traction on the oceans surface. On Sat AM (9/21) the gale is to approaching the dateline with 45 kt northwest winds and seas 28 ft at 45.5N 170.5E aimed east. The gale is to be fading some in the evening with west winds 40+ kts as it crosses over the dateline and seas 29 ft at 46N 174.75E aimed east. The gale to fade some Sun AM (9/22) moving over the Northwestern Gulf with a broad area of 35 kts west winds and seas 26 ft at 45.75N 17.25W aimed east and southeast. In the evening the gale to track east with winds fading from 30-35 kts and seas 24 ft at 47.25N 164.75W aimed east and southeast. The gael is to be over the Northern Gulf on Mon AM (9/23) with west winds 35 kts and seas 25 ft at 51N 156.75W aimed east. Fetch fading in the evening from 30 kts with seas fading from 23 ft at 50.5N 152W aimed east. The gale to dissipate from there. Something well worth monitoring.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Fri AM (9/20) northwest winds to be 20-25 kts for Cape Mendocino and 10 kts south of there over Central CA. No real change in the afternoon. Small northwest windswell building.
Sat AM (9/21) northwest winds are to be 25-30 kts early for Cape Mendocino and with an eddy flow (south winds) 5-10 kts south of there down over Central CA. In the afternoon no real change is forecast. Small windswell holding.
Sun AM (9/22) northwest winds to be 20-25 kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest 5 kts south of there over all of Central CA. No real change in the afternoon. Small northwest windswell fading some.
Mon AM (9/23) northwest winds building some to 25 kts solid limited to Cape Mendocino and northwest 10 kts from Pt Arena southward to Pt Conception. Fetch building to 25-30 kts for Cape Mendocino in the afternoon and northwest 5 kts south of Pt Arena down to Pt Conception. Windswell holding.
Tues AM (9/24) northwest winds to be 20+ ks off North Cape Mendocino early and northwest 5 kts south of there the whole way down to Pt Conception. Fetch fading to 15 kts or less in the afternoon all well off the North CA coast with south winds 1-5 kts over Central CA. Windswell fading out.
Wed AM (9/25) northwest winds to be 10-15 kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest 5 kts for the rest of North and Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 15-20 kts for North CA and 10 kts for Central CA. No real windswell forecast.
Thurs AM (9/26) northwest winds to build again at 20-25 kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest 10 kts for Central CA early. Windswell starting to rebuild.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 0, 0 , 0 and 0 inches inches respectively.

Temperatures for the intersection of Tioga Pass Road and the John Muir Trail (Toulomne Meadows - 8700 ft): Freeze Level 12.000 ft Fri AM (9/20) and steadily rising to 13,000 ft on Sun AM (9/22) then above 14,000 ft beyond. At the intersection level (8,700 ft) temps to be 40-45 degs late Fri AM (9/20) rising to 50-55 degs Sat (9/21) and 55-60 degs beyond.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Surface Analysis
A gale passed east under New Zealand producing small swell that is fading now in California (see New Zealand Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

New Zealand Gale
On Fri AM (9/6) a gale was developing a bit north of the same area of the ocean roughed up by the primer gale (above) just southwest of New Zealand producing 40-45 kts west winds and seas building from 25 ft at 48.75S 155.5E aimed east. In the evening the gael built while tracking east just south of New Zealand with southwest winds 50-55 kts and seas 35 ft at 50.5S 165.75E aimed east. On Sat AM (9/7) the gale tracked east with southwest winds fading from 45 kts and seas 37-38 ft at 51.75S 175.25E. In the evening the gale was fading while tracking east with west winds 30-35 kts over a decent area and seas fading from 32 ft at 50.75S 177.5W aimed east. Fetch was fading Sun AM (9/8) from 30 kts over a broad area with seas 26 ft at 48.5S 171.75W aimed east. The gale to dissipate from there. Small swell is likely tracking northeast.

Southern CA: Swell fading Thurs (9/19) from 1.2 ft @ 14-15 secs (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 217 degrees

North CA: Swell fading Thurs (9/19) from 1.0 ft @ 14-15 secs (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 216 degrees

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours starting Thurs AM (9/24) another gale is forecast developing just off North Japan with 40-45 kts northwest winds and seas building. Something to monitor.

ENSO Neutral Trying Weakly to Turn to La Nina
Models Waffle on La Nina Strength Ahead
9 Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But that is over and cold water has traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific and is starting to erupt off the coast of Ecuador with the remaining warm pool created by El Nino starting to dissipate in the East Equatorial Pacific. Regardless, the atmosphere is still weakly in El Nino mode and will continue from previous momentum while slowly fading through Fall of 2024.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023.

Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 10 Active MJO's produced 9 Kelvin Waves from Dec 2022 through Dec 2023 resulting in El Nino. The CFS model is predicting steady weal easterly anomalies over the KWGA with the low pressure bias moving over the Maritime Continent and a high pressure bias setting up over the dateline region. We are now in a fading El Nino pattern with La Nina forecast and trying to develop over the Pacific. But, the Summer after a strong El Nino Winter in the Pacific it is normal for the Southern hemi storm pattern to be stronger than normal and centered under New Zealand. The net result should be a somewhat above normal number of swells with above normal size and duration originating under New Zealand.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (9/18) Water sensors are down in the east. 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. Anomalies were weak east over the East equatorial Pacific and modest east over the Central Pacific and light east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (9/19) Today moderate east anomalies were filling the KWGA. The forecast suggests this pattern holding more or less for the next 2 weeks through a little weaker east anomalies 9/24-9/30, then back to moderate east anomalies filling the KWGA beyond. A significant Inactive MJO is holding.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (9/18) Currently a modest Active MJO pattern (wet air) was over the KWGA. The statistic model depicts the Active MJO (wet air)fading on day 5 of the model run with a weak Inactive phase developing in the far West KWGA on day 10 and building to moderate status on day 15 of the model run. The dynamic model depicts effectively the same thing. These 2 models are in sync.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (9/19) - The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was modest over the West Pacific. It is to move slowly east to Africa over the next 2 weeks and weak. The dynamic model depicts the same thing. Many other models suggest some version of this same pattern though all the long range models (1 month) suggest a quick return to the Maritime Continent.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (9/19) This model depicts a weak Active MJO pattern (wet air) moving east currently located over the far West Pacific. The Active Phase is to slowly continue tracking east through the KWGA through 10/4 then quickly fading out. A moderate Inactive pattern (dry air) to follow building over the KWGA 10/9 and taking control through the end of the model run on 10/29.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (9/18) Today the Active Phase was building over the KWGA producing mostly weak east anomalies filling the KWGA. The forecast has the Active Phase tracking east and east of the KWGA on 10/2 but with west anomalies finally developing in the KWGA 9/19-9/27 then collapsing with east anomalies returning. The Inactive MJO is to develop 10/2 filling the KWGA through the end of the model run on 10/16 with east anomalies building to near strong status 10/2 through the end of the model run.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (9/19) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today the Active MJO was filling the KWGA and pushing east with west anomalies mostly filling the KWGA. The forecast indicates the Active MJO sliding east filling the KWGA through 10/2 with modest west anomalies in control. A weak Inactive Phase is to follow 9/29-10/25 with moderate east anomalies in control. Another Active Phase is to develop in the West starting 10/18 and pushing east through the end of the model run on 12/17 with west anomalies filling the KWGA east to 170E through 11/8 with east anomalies east of there and then west anomalies filling the Pacific after that. This continues to be an upgrade from model runs on mid-August and earlier. The low pass filter indicates the low pressure bias is over the Indian Ocean (starting 4/28) with one contour. A second contour is forecast 10/15-11/15. The high pressure bias started to develop in the Pacific on the dateline 5/4-8/3 then collapsed to nothing. It is to return weakly over the dateline 11/21 with 1 contour over a thin area and holding steady through the end of the model run and never having a second contour line and not significant in coverage and if anything fading the last days of the model run. This is a major upgrade from previous runs (since Aug) suggesting La Nina much weaker than previous forecasts if not bordering on ENSO neutral.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (9/19) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 degree isotherm was back reaching east to 168E. The 29 degree isotherm was stable at 180W. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 170W. The 24 degree isotherm was pushing east the whole way across the Equatorial Pacific. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +1 degs in the far West Pacific but +3 degs in the East. A pool of cold anomalies at up to -4.0 degs were centered subsurface down 125m at 155W reaching to the surface at 160W but this is questionable due to lack of sensors east of 155W. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 9/15 clarifies the situation indicating cold anomalies reaching to the surface east of 150W filling the entire East Equatorial Pacific thermocline and neutral to the dateline. The residuals of the warm pool is quickly collapsing. The density of warm anomalies west of there are building limited to 160E and points west of there. La Nina is here. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (9/15) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative at -5 cms from Ecuador to the dateline with -10 cms between 110W-170W with a pocket of -15 cm anomalies were at 130W-150W. This suggests a cooling trend is building. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (9/15) cold water started filling the Equatorial Pacific early March then retracted in June, rebuilt in coverage mid-July, then retracted in Aug. Then cool anomalies again rebuilt over the equatorial Pacific early Sept from 180W to Ecuador and holding steady today down to -2 degs centered over a small area at 140W. A clear La Nina pattern is in play with warm water limited in coverage west of the dateline and cool water east of there to Ecuador.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (9/18) The latest images depict a La Nina cool stream has built on the equator from Ecuador west to the dateline and broadest from the Galapagos to 165W and getting consistent in coverage across its length and stronger compared to days past. This looks like the first real sense of a clear La Nina pattern this year. Residual warm anomalies from the remnants of El Nino were north and south of it across the Pacific. We are in a transitional phase moving from El Nino to La Nina but not strongly.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (9/18): A thin stream of cooling waters were on the equator from ecuador to 160W. A La Nina pulse appears to be building.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (9/19) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were generally steady if now weakly warming (since 8/7) at -0.590 after reaching a low on 7/29 near -1.1 degs, falling the previous 3 weeks after briefly being up near +0.0 (7/7-7/11) after rising from -1.008 (on Tues 6/25). Previously the trend has been steady at roughly -0.750 since 5/14. Highlights from the recent past are -1.105 (5/28), -1.014 (5/16) rising to +0.184 degrees (5/2) after falling to -0.843 (4/21) and -0.565 on 4/1 and has been below 0 since 3/19.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (9/19) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were falling steadily to -1.022 and have been falling steadily in pulses since 6/30. Temps fell below the zero mark on 5/20 and but then rebuilt hovering near neutral 6/2 through 6/30. Previously temps have been in the +1.2 deg range since 3/11. Temps were at +1.2 degs or higher since 1/13. Temps had been in the +1.5 range 11/19-1/12.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were -0.2 (week of 9/11) Temps have been near neutral since 5/8/24. Weekly values were -0.1 (9.4), -0.2 (8/28), 0.0 (8/21), -0.1 degrees (8/14) +0.0 (8/7) -0.2 degrees (7/31) and the first week negative in a year, +0.1 (week of 7/24), +0.2 (7/17), +0.3 (7/10 and 7/3), +0.4 ( 6/26) +0.3 (6/19) +0.0 (week of 6/12) +0.1 (6/5 & 5/29) +0.2 degs (5/15 and 5/22), +0.3 (5/8), +0.5 (5/1), +0.8 (4/24), +0.7 (week of 4/17), +0.9 (4/10), +1.2 (week of 4/3), +1.0 (3/27), +1.3 (3/20), +1.1 degs (3/13), +1.4 (3/6), +1.3 (2/28), +1.5 (2/14 & 2/21) +1.7 (2/7), +1.8 (1/31). +1.7 (1/24 & 1/17) up at +1.9 (1/10 & 1/3), +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 (11/29) and +2.1 (11/22 - the highest), then +1.9 (11/15) and +1.8 degs (11/8 & 11/1).
Monthly Data is falling from +1.72 Oct, +2.02 Nov, +2.02 Dec and +1.82 Jan and +1.52 Feb, +1.12 March, +0.78 April, +0.24 May, +0.18 June, +0.05 July and -0.07 August.
3 Month ONI (centered relative) 3 month period is -0.44 (JJA), -0.39 (MJJ), -0.21 (AMJ), +0.07 MAM, +0.48 FMA, +0.86 JFM, 1.21 for DJF and +1.47 ft for NDJ (just short of minimal Super El Nino status) and +1.49 OND . All others were less than that.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May 2023, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan 2024 and +1.65 in Feb then down to +0.75 degs mid-April, +0.25 mid May and then 0.25 mid June falling to -0.15 degs in mid-Aug. Temps are not actually falling as fast as forecast.
Forecast (9/17) - Temps to fall to -0.50 late-Sept and then -0.85 later in Oct, peaking down at -1.05 degs in Dec 2024 before rebounding to neutral in April 2025. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same trend but with temps to -0.50 degs Sept and -0.75 in Oct then down to barely -0.95 degs in Dec. This is an upgrade. According to this version of the model we are moving to a weak La Nina.
IRI Consensus Plume: The August 19, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are -0.273 degs today and is the 3rd month below neutral since El Nino developed. Temps to fall steadily from here forward down to -0.393 in Sept (3 month running mean) then fading from there down to -0.492 in Nov then rising from there. This is an upgrade with temps previously forecast down to -0.944 (per the April model run). The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.616 in Nov and the Statistic down to -0.294 in Jan. Both these projections are higher than the month before.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (9/19) the Daily Index was positive at +8.44 and has been positive 2 days, negative the previous 11 days, positive 22 days previous. Over the past month it was a mix of positive and negative.
The 30 day average was falling at +6.01 and has been mostly positive the last month. Recent max lows were -19.26 on 2/20, -10.43 on 11/16 and -15.70 on 9/23.
The 90 day average was slowly inching upwards at +0.59 and mostly neutral the last month. This is the first positive value (on 9/5) since the demise of El Nino. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15.
We are in ENSO neutral status.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(Negative is bad, Positive is good) The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/2019 and hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling to -1.52 in March 2024, -2.12 April, -2.99 May, -3.16 in June, -2.99 July and -2.88 Aug. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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