On Sunday (9/24) Northern CA surf was shoulder high and clean but totally socked in early. South facing breaks in Santa Cruz were up to waist high. Central California surf was thigh to waist high. Southern CA breaks from Santa Barbara to just north of LA were thigh high. The LA Area southward to Orange County was up to waist high. Southward from Orange County into San Diego best breaks were waist to chest high. The North Shore of Oahu was flat. The South Shore was thigh high. The East Shore was thigh to waist high.
One more little southwest swell expected for California this week providing something to stand on, but not much more. Hawaii was seeing the last remnants of southern hemi energy with nothing else expected to back it up anytime soon, so the focus turns north. The most interesting marine weather feature this week is the expected development of 2 low pressure systems over the dateline/Western Gulf of Alaska region. They're not looking as promising as suggested a few days before, but still provide some limited hope for rideable surf for both Hawaii and California. After that high pressure is to take control, but that likely won't hold for long. See details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
Sundays jetstream charts (9/24) indicated 140 kt winds flowing under a minor trough over the dateline and south of the Aleutians providing some support for surface level low pressure development. That to push east and start to pinch off late Monday as it works it's way into the Gulf of Alaska shutting down any potential for it, but a second trough is forecast developing over the dateline Tuesday, though most of it's 150 kt energy is to be on the rising side of the trough (east), focusing any surface level winds towards Canada. Some support for surface low pressure development, but not optimal. That trough to push east and pinch off as well Thursday in the western Gulf. Behind that a big ridge is forecast developing off Siberia tracking east and moderating, turning into a mostly zonal flow by late next weekend and not providing any surface low support.
Today at the surface a broad but weak low pressure system was trying to organize just east of the dateline and well south of the Aleutians at 996 mbs. A small fetch of 30 kts northwest winds were in it's southwestern sector aimed a bit east of Hawaii and too far away from California to be of use. Otherwise No systems capable of generating swell were present. Weak high pressure at 1024 mbs was pushing into northern Canada but was not producing any gradient winds of interest. By Sunday evening the dateline low is to drop to 992 mbs by nightfall with a better fetch of 30-35 kt north winds and up to 20 ft seas targeting Hawaii, and holding into Monday as the low itself lifts slowly east and north into the Gulf of Alaska. A brief fetch of 30 kts winds are to target California Tuesday with 20 ft seas developing right before the low dissipates in the Gulf. Limited swell expected to push in to Hawaii's Northern Shores Wednesday (9/27) reaching 4 ft @ 12 secs late (4-5 ft faces) from 330 degrees. Limited swell to push into North California late Friday (9/29) into early Saturday with swell 4 ft @ 11 secs (4 ft faces) from 295 degrees.
The extratropical remnants of Typhoon Nagi are expected to track east off Japan Monday (9/25) and merge with a small cold core low tracking east off the Kuril Islands. This has been scheduled for nearly a week. By Tuesday AM pressure is to drop to 980 mbs as the low moves over the dateline but unfortunately most fetch is to be in the systems north quadrant aimed back towards Kamchatka, with only 35 kts west winds developing in the gales south quadrant aimed east of Hawaii and too far away from California to be of much interest. In the evening pressure to hold with winds up to 40-45 kts in the gales west quadrant aimed a bit better at Hawaii and California. Seas building to 25 ft at 45N 178E. The fetch to push southwest into Wednesday AM (9/27) with winds still 40-45 kts but over a shrinking area just east of the dateline. Seas building to 29 ft at 43N 180W. By evening this system to be gone with 27 ft seas from previous days fetch starting to decay while pushing southeast. Current forecast data suggest some decent rideable swell pushing into Hawaii late Friday (9/29) peaking early Saturday with period in the 14 secs range. Dribbles into exposed breaks in North California Sunday (10/1). Will post details as this storm actually develops.
Typhoon Yagi, or rather the remnants of it were positioned off Japan Sunday morning (9/24) tracking northeast. Max winds were 55 kts and fading fast. This system to be merging with a low pushing off Siberia on Monday (see details above).
No other tropical systems of interest were being monitored.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
California Offshore Forecast
On Sunday (9/24) a weak pressure pattern was preset off the coast with light winds in control (less than 15 kts). No change forecast through Wednesday. Then on Thursday (9/28) a 1026 mb high to start building 850 nmiles west of Southern Oregon with up to 20 kts north winds developing off Cape Mendocino, but staying clear of the majority of California coastal waters through Saturday morning. Those winds to start sagging south on Sunday (10/1) with 15 kts local north winds possible at that time creating a bit of a warbled mess from Pt Conception northward.
On Sunday (9/24) a massive ridge in the southern branch of the jetstream was pushing far to the south under New Zealand over the Ross Ice Shelf into Antarctica and not lift north until 130W, mostly out of the California swell window and totally shutting down the Hawaiian swell window. No change is forecast and in fact the ridge is to expand further to the east through the week. The faintest hint of a break in the ridge is suggested next Sunday (10/1) with a faint trough trying to build in the mid-South Pacific then, but not really supportive of surface level low pressure development.
At the surface today no swell producing fetch was evident. Over the next 72 hours no change is suggested. Note: The Ross Ice Shelf is built up well to the north reaching just shy of the 60S latitude, now that we're at the tail end of winter down there. This expanded ice coverage significantly reduces the amount of exposed water available for winds to blow over.
Assorted Activity Under New Zealand
On Thursday (9/14) a gale was under New Zealand with winds confirmed at 40-45 kts but only covering a small area and aimed all due east, well beyond any path heading north to Hawaii and way too far away to have any impact on California. It was gone on Friday but not before producing 6 hours of 37 ft seas under New Zealand, then rapidly fading. A second gale followed right behind on Saturday but it moved over the southern tip of New Zealand breaking the fetch up. 38 ft seas pushed under the southern Tasman Sea, but were gone before ever pushing into exposed waters of the South Pacific. Residual energy from this system is to be decaying through Tuesday (9/26) in Hawaii in combination with the swell indicated below. This swell to also produce some energy into California starting late Sunday (9/24) peaking Tues/Wed with swell 3 ft @ 15-16 secs (4.5 ft faces - up to 5.5 ft faces at top breaks) decaying through Friday.
One Last Fetch
On Sunday a gale was passing under New Zealand with winds to 40 kts by the evening push steadily to the northeast through Monday (9/18), then eventually reorganizing east of New Zealand on Tuesday into a closed isobar low, but fading before any winds of interest develop. Seas modeled at 30 ft Monday AM at 50S 175E pushing east reaching 31 ft Monday night at 48S 170W then fading from 30 ft Tuesday AM at 50S 160W. Background swell for Hawaii a week out just mixing with other small residual swell.
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours the models suggest a broad 1028 mbs high pressure system to set up over the dateline behind the remnants of the Yagi gale on Thursday (9/28) building to 1032 mbs on Friday tracking east towards the Gulf. But it to dissipate before making it that far late Saturday leaving a generic unorganized high pressure pattern in it's wake into Sunday and directly any storm activity on a route through the Bering Sea for now. Expect this to be short lived though.
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing storms or gales forecast.
Details to follow...
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table