Tuesday, October 10, 2017
- Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 3.9 ft @ 9.9 secs with northeast windswell 2.9 ft @ 8.6 secs from 16 degrees.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.3 ft @ 12.8 secs with southern hemi swell 2.6 ft @ 12.9 secs from 203 degrees. Wind at the buoy was southwest at 4-6 kts. Water temperature 69.1 degs. At Ventura (Buoy 111) swell was 2.4 ft @ 12.6 secs from 243 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.8 ft @ 13.0 secs from 202 degrees. At Camp Pendleton (043) swell was 2.1 ft @ 13.1 secs from 214 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 3.2 ft @ 12.8 secs from 223 degrees.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 6.8 ft @ 12.0 secs with local north windswell 6.1 @ 10.8 secs from 313 degrees and southern hemi swell 2.2 ft @ 14.4 secs from 208 degrees. Wind at the buoy was southwest 8-12 kts. Water temp 58.3 degs.
46006, 46059, Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Tuesday (10/10) in North and Central CA local north windswell was producing waves at exposed breaks at head high to 1 ft overhead and very clean and lined up and pretty even considering it's pure windswell. Protected breaks were shoulder high and clean and lined up. At Santa Cruz southern hemi swell #2S was still hanging in there producing waves in the chest high range and clean and lined up but still pretty slow. In Southern California up north southern hemi swell was producing waves at waist high with some chest high sets and clean but slow. In North Orange Co set waves were head high and lined up but a bit soft coming from the south and clean. In South Orange Co southern hemi swell was still hitting with sets head high and offshore winds and clean. In San Diego surf was waist high and clean and weak. Hawaii's North Shore was maybe waist high and clean and not really rideable. The South Shore was flat and clean. The East Shore was getting minimal east windswell at knee to thigh high and lightly textured from light northeast trades.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Tuesday (10/10) southern hemi swell was fading out in California. From the northern hemisphere local north windswell was fading out in California and gone in Hawaii. A gale formed Sun (10/8) in the extreme North Gulf with up to 27 ft seas, but again mostly east of the swell window. There's hints of some fetch pushing just south of the Western Aleutians on Wed-Thurs (10/12) producing 28 ft seas aimed east but confidence is low. And another gale is to form in the far northwest Gulf of Alaska on Tues (10/17) with seas to 36 ft, but odds are very low of that outcome. Down south tiny swell is arriving in HI from a a small gale that produced up to 39 ft seas east of New Zealand Tues (10/3). But of more interest is another gale developing in the Central South Pacific Sun-Tues (10/10) producing up to 39 ft seas over a tiny area aimed well northeast. Some southern hemi swell seems likely while we wait for Fall to start. Take what you can get cause La Nina is to be stomping on the storm track all Fall and Winter.
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Tuesday AM (10/10) the jetstream was displaced north pushing east off the Central Kurils Islands at 47N latitude line at 150 kts then ridging north well west of the dateline and tracking through the Bering Sea pushing into Alaska, then falling south forming a weak pinched trough just off British Columbia before pushing inland. In generally there was no support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours the jet in the west is to continue pushing east off the Southern Kurils at 140 kts on the 43N latitude line making good eastward headway and reaching the western Gulf of Alaska on Thurs (10/12) perhaps offering support for gale development over the Western Aleutians. The ridge in the east is to get progressively undercut with energy streaming east and positioned further south. By Fri (10/13) the jet is to be consolidated over the entire North Pacific with winds up to 160 kts in a pocket over the dateline lifting gently northeast and pushing into the Northern Gulf, but with no troughs present offering no clear support for gale development. Beyond 72 hours the same basic pattern is to hold until Mon (10/16) when a weak trough is to start developing in the flow over the Gulf of Alaska being fed by 150 kt winds and pushing east moving inland over Vancouver Island offering limited support for gale development. But on Tues (10/17) a healthy flow of 160 kts winds is to be embedded in the main flow running flat from the dateline into the Eastern Gulf offering potential longer term though no troughs are immediately projected.
On Tuesday (10/10) some small sideband groundswell was hitting North CA from a gale previously in the extreme Northern Gulf of Alaska, mixing with local north windswell. Looking forward only local north windswell is in the forecast for California, and east windswell for Hawaii.
Over the next 72 hours a gale is forecast developing in the Western Bering Sea with 40 kt west winds barely extending south of the Western Aleutians Wed AM (10/11) generating 23 ft seas at 50N 174E aimed east. In the evening fetch is to hold with 28 ft seas at 51N 175E. Fetch is to lift north on Thurs AM (10/12) fading from 30 kts south of the Aleutians with 26 ft seas fading at 51N 177E. Low odds of small swell radiating towards Hawaii and the US West Coast.
A small gale formed in the extreme North Gulf of Alaska on Sun AM (10/8) producing 40 kt west winds and seas building from 27 ft at 56N 152W and shadowed for Central CA southward. 35+ kt west winds continued pushing east in the evening with seas 25 ft at 57N 144W and still shadowed for everywhere south of Pt Arena. The gale dissipated from there. Swell is possible for the Pacific Northwest down to Cape Mendocino.
No other swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.
For windswell relative to California: On Tues (10/10) strong high pressure at 1042 mbs was developing in the Gulf of Alaska ridging east and building a broad fetch of 20-25 kts north winds off the entire Canada coast down to Cape Mendocino and expected to start impacting the Cape Mendocino coast later in the afternoon. Windswell again on the increase relative to North and Central CA. By Wed (10/11) the high is to control the Gulf generating 25-30 kts north winds pushing down the North CA coast and falling south to Pt Conception in the afternoon generating raw local north windswell for all of North and Central CA, but focused more on Central CA. More of the same is forecast on Thursday and Friday (10/13). Raw local windswell is to be the result.
For windswell relative to Hawaii: On Tues (10/10) a weak pressure and wind pattern was in control. But on Wed (10/11) high pressure developing in the Gulf of Alaska (see above) is to start producing a fetch of east winds at 15-20 kts 300 nmiles east of the Islands perhaps starting to generating east windswell for exposed east facing shores. That fetch is to build in coverage east of the Islands on Thurs (10/12) then starting to push over the Islands on Fri (10/13) and extending from California the whole way over Hawaii at near 20 kts offering great potential for windswell development.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
No tropical systems of interest were occurring and none were forecast.
California Nearshore Forecast
On Tuesday (10/10) high pressure at 1042 mbs was building in the Western Gulf of Alaska moving east, but not reaching the California coast yet. a light pressure and wind pattern was in control. Wed (10/11) high pressure is to start ridging into the coast with north winds at 20+ kts for North CA and up to 30 kts for Bodega Bay to San Francisco and 25 kts down to Pismo Beach early and falling south in the afternoon. Thursday 20-25 kts north winds to be in control of all of North and Central CA nearshore waters all day and holding Friday too. Saturday (10/14) the north winds are to become progressively isolated to North CA at 25-30 kts through the day but 20 kts for Central CA early/15 kts later. Sunday (10/15) north winds are to be 25-30 kts over North CA (early) and 10 kts or less from Pt Arena southward and fading from there. Monday and Tues (10/17) a light pressure and wind pattern is forecast.
On Tuesday (10/10) tiny sideband swell from a gale that developed off New Zealand on Tues (10/3) was radiating northeast. Also a gale was tracking through the South Central Pacific (see Central Pacific Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast other than what is documented below.
Small New Zealand Gale
A small gale developed under New Zealand on Mon PM (10/2) with 45 kt west winds and seas 32 ft over a tiny area at 53S 175E tracking east. On Tues AM (10/3) southwest winds built to 50-55 kt with 38 ft seas over a small area at 49S 170W. The storm rapidly faded in the evening with southwest winds dropping from 40 kts and seas 34 ft at 47S 161W. Wed AM (10/4) winds were fading from 35 kts from the southwest and seas 29 ft at 47S 152W. This system dissipated after that. Small southerly swell to result.
Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Tues AM (10/10) pushing 1.2 ft @ 15-16 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell fading Wed AM (10/11) from 1.1 ft @ 14 secs (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 195 degrees
South California: Expect swell arrival on Fri (10/13) pushing 1.0 ft @ 17-18 secs later (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell continues on Sat (10/14) at 1.5 ft @ 16 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading Sun (10/15) from 1.4 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 206-210 degrees.
No swell expected for North CA.
Central Pacific Gale
On Sun AM (10/8) a fetch of 40 kt southwest winds were getting traction on the oceans surface southeast of New Zealand with seas building from 26 ft at 58S 171W. In the evening the gale was building some with 40-45 kt south winds taking shape and seas 32 ft at 54S 157W aimed northeast. A solid area of 45-50 kt south winds developed Mon AM (10/9) with 32 ft seas at 53S 149W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch consolidated at 45 kts from the south with a tiny core of 39 ft seas at 50S 148.5W surrounded by a decent size area of 30+ ft seas aimed north. On Tues AM (10/10) south fetch was fading from 30 kts over a decent sized area aimed north with 34 ft seas fading over a small area at 45S 146W. Fetch fading from 30 kts from the south in the evening with seas fading from 28 ft at 40S 143W. Small swell is possible for Hawaii with larger size for California. Something to monitor.
Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Sun (10/15) building to 1.9 ft @ 17-18 secs later (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell peaks Mon (10/16) mid-day at 2.0 ft @ 16 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fading Tues (10/17) from 1.9 ft @ 15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 180 degrees
South California: Expect swell arrival on Mon (10/16) building to 2.0 ft @ 20 secs late (4.0 ft). Swell continues up on Tues (10/17) building to 3.2 ft @ 17-18 secs later (5.5 ft with sets to 7.0 ft). Swell Direction: 198 degrees
North California: Expect swell arrival on Mon (10/16) building to 1.6 ft @ 20 secs late (3.0 ft). Swell continues up on Tues (10/17) building to 2.6 ft @ 18 secs later (4.5 ft with sets to 6.0 ft). Swell Direction: 197 degrees
Another small gale developed Wed PM (10/4) in the deep Central Pacific with 45 kts southwest winds tracking east and 33 ft seas over a tiny area at 57S 159W. Thurs AM (10/5) winds were fading from 40 kts with 30 ft seas over a tiny area at 58S 148W. In the evening the gale faded out. No meaningful swell is expected to result for our forecast area.
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours another Bering Sea Gale is to be producing limited fetch and seas just south of the Aleutians starting Mon AM (10/16) with west winds 35-40 kts and seas building to 28 ft at 52N 175E in the evening. The fetch is to track east Tues AM (10/17) with 45 kts west winds just south of the Eastern Aleutians with seas 32 ft over a small area at 52N 170W. Something to monitor.
For California starting Sat (10/14) high pressure is to still be in the Gulf at 1040 mbs ridging east forming the usual pressure gradient along the North and Central CA coast generating 20-25 kts north winds nearshore but lifting north later with north winds 10-15 kts for Central CA making for raw local north windswell possibly cleaning up some later. And by Sun (10/15) north winds to hold at 25 kts over Cape Mendocino to Pt Arena but 10 kts or less south of there with cleaner but smaller north windswell expected for Central CA. Monday (10/16) the gradient is to be gone with no windswell production potential indicated and holding into Tues (10/17).
For Hawaii starting Sat (10/14) high pressure is to still be in control 1200 nmiles northeast of Hawaii still generating a broad fetch of 20 kt east winds is to filling the area between Hawaii and the mainland generating larger east windswell and holding unchanged through Sun (10/15). Monday the fetch is to be fading off California limited to the area 900 nmiles east of Hawaii, strongest (20 kts) over Hawaii and 15 kts well east of there and holding through Tues (10/17). Raw local east windswell is expected for exposed east facing shores.
Beyond 72 hours a small gale is forecast developing in the far Southeast Pacific east of the California swell window on Sat (10/14) and peaking Sun (10/15) with 40 ft seas at 56S 109W. Swell possible for Mexico southward into South America but not for California.
Theoretically a small gale is to track under New Zealand on Sat (10/14) building Sun AM (10/15) with 45-50 kt southwest winds and seas 38 ft at 56S 173E aimed mostly east. Fetch is to fade from 45 kts from the west in the evening with seas 38 ft at 55S 178W. The gale is to fade from there. Low odds of swell resulting targeting mainly Central America.
More details to follow...
La Nina Steady - Active MJO Forecast
The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).
Overview: La Nina started developing in early 2016, but westward displaced and generally weak. And by March 2017, it was gone with suspicious warming developing along South America and over the Galapagos to a point south of Hawaii. By May the atmosphere returned to a neutral configuration and is holding.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast:
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of Mon (10/9) the 5 day average indicated east winds were over the entire equatorial Pacific and Kelvin Wave Generation Area. Anomalies were light easterly over the East Pacific and modest east over the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (10/10) modest east anomalies were modeled over the core of the KWGA. East anomalies are to start building again to the strong category on 10/11 holding through 10/14 then weakening some but still moderate in strength through the end of the model run on 10/17. This is not the Inactive Phase of the MJO, but another small pulse of La Nina completely squashing the MJO. This is not conducive to storm development in the greater Pacific Basin.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:
OLR Models: As of 10/9 a weak Active/Wet MJO pattern was moving into the far West Pacific. The statistical model depicts it building slightly 5 days out, then holding through the end of the 15 day model run. The dynamic model depicts the Active Phase of the MJO also building in the far West Pacific 5 days out and building more while pushing east some through the end of the 2 week model run. This would be the first Active Phase of the MJO in months if it were to develop.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (10/10) The ECMF model depicts the Active Phase of the MJO modest in strength over the Maritime Continent and forecast building to moderate strength while tracking east, over the dateline 2 weeks out. The GEFS model suggests it building to the strong category and not making as much east headway, but still positioned well in the West Pacific 2 weeks out.
40 day Upper Level Model: (10/10) This model depicts a weak Active/Wet pattern developing in the West Pacific and it's to track east over the equatorial Pacific and into Central America 11/2. A moderate Inactive Phase is to follow in the West on 10/30 tracking east into Central America through the end of the model run on 11/19. This model runs about 2 weeks ahead of what happens at the surface.
CFS Model - 3 month (850 mb wind): (10/10) This model is trying to spin up after crashing on 9/18. It is a mess and unbelievable. The low pass filter indicates a very weak El Nino signal is over the KWGA and is to hold for the foreseeable future. The La Nina signal has moved over the Atlantic. Interesting. If this is true, it suggests the underpinnings of La Nina are already gone. Best guess is a very weak directionless and low energy weather pattern biased towards La Nina redeveloping in Fall of 2017 holding into December, then vaporizing in March with a neutral ENSO signal developing. It will take about 5+ years for the Pacific to recharge from the 2014-16 El Nino before another El Nino develops.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (10/10) A pattern change set up in August, with warm water retreating to the west and cooler water building in the east. Today in the far West Pacific water temps have fallen to 29 degs centered at 160E and shrinking in coverage. The 28 deg isotherm line is barely hanging on at 170W. The 24 deg isotherm is weak at 121W today but shallow at 60 meters deep at 140W. Anomaly wise a clear change is present in the East Pacific with warm water gone and instead neutral to weakly negative temperatures at the surface and down to -3.0 degs C down 125 meters at 150W indicative of La Nina. Warm anomalies are isolated to the West Pacific at 0.0-+1.0 degrees down to 100 meters deep with the dividing line between cool and warm moving east at 155W. Some sort of weak surface warming is occurring in the East Pacific. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 10/5 depicts the same thing, but with more cool water east and less warm water in the west and with more cool water at depth in the East Pacific, erupting to the surface near the Galapagos.
Sea Level Anomalies: (10/5) Negative anomalies are in control at -5 cms over the entire equatorial Pacific with a large pocket of -10 cm anomalies present between 100W-160W suggesting a building cool pool at depth. This is not good.
Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (10/9) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate a clear cool pattern has developed. Upwelling is rebuilding strong nearshore along Peru and Ecuador and tracking northwest fading in density over the Galapagos and flowing steadily west from there just south of the equator out to 140W. Interesting but warm anomalies are just north of the equator from the Galapagos to 115W. The cool pool looks much weaker than days and weeks past, likely dying due to decreased trades. Perhaps the La Nina pulse is pausing.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (10/9): A weakly warming temperature trend is along Peru. Weak warming is occurring from the Galapagos out to 100W, but then the trend turns cooler over the region from 100-150W.
Hi-res Overview: (10/9) A clear La Nina cool stream is present starting off Southern Chile pushing north up Peru and building in coverage, then turning northwest off Ecuador while tracking west from the Galapagos out to 140W and now a little stronger than 2 days ago. Weak cool anomalies continue west out to 170E. This pattern outlines the South Pacific high pressure system well which is assumed to be stronger than normal. It is assumed cool water at depth is erupting to the surface with the breach point near the Galapagos. There is no sign of warm anomalies in the Nino 1.2 or Nino3.4 regions. Otherwise waters of all oceans of the planet are warmer than normal other than the aforementioned stream. We now assert that climatology needs to be updated to reflect the new reality of warming ocean temperatures over the entire planet.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (10/10) Today's temps were falling at -1.804, but not as cold as Sept 20, when temps really started dipping.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: Today (10/10) temps were steady at -0.194, up some from when they bottomed out on 9/12 at -0.898. The long arc still suggests a clear downward trend though things have warmed steadily over the past 3 weeks.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (10/10) The forecast has temps falling steadily from -0.4 in early Oct to -1.3 in early Dec. Then the trend is to turn upwards rebounding to -0.4 in April and neutral in June 2018. This suggests a legit La Nina now expected for the Winter of 2017-2018. The CFS SST images (9/26) continues to suggest a moderate La Nina cool pattern building on the equator off the Galapagos in Oct and building steadily into Feb 2018. A full on La Nina is setting up.
IRI Consensus Plume: The mid-Sept Plume updated (9/19) depicts temps forecast to fade -0.4 degs in Sept, and fading to -0.6 degs in Nov, slowly rising from there turning neutral in April 2018. See chart here - link. The NMME consensus for Sept average indicates temps -0.75 degrees below normal Nov-Jan 2018 then rebounding to normal in April. It sure looks like La Nina is on the way. The CFSv2 is the outlier, colder than all other models. Still, given all the oceanic signals, we a tending to side with it more than the other models.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (10/10): The daily index was positive at 18.95. The 30 day average was rising at 9.76. The 90 day average was rising at +7.34. This suggests a turn towards La Nina.
ESPI (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive is good, negative bad): (10/10) The index was rising slightly at -1.56 (up from -2.20 on 6/28/17 but still suggesting a turn towards La Nina). Last years La Nina reached -1.94 on 11/2/16. We're gone deeper than that already. So the index is about as negative as it was at the peak of last years (2016) La Nina. At this time it looks like La Nina is returning for a double dip/2 year La Nina (not unusual). This index is a forerunner of what happens in the ocean by 2-3 months in developing El Nino and La Nina events.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The PDO continues positive, though much weaker lately (as expected with La Nina setting in).
Per NOAAs index recent values (Jan-Dec): Jan 2017 = +0.10, Feb = +0.04, March = +0.12, April=+0.52, May=+0.30, June=+0.19, July= -0.50, Aug= -0.68. This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO discounting the recent La Nina dip. No consistently negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington EDU index (Jan-Dec): Jan 2017 = +0.77, Feb = +0.70, Mar = +0.74, April=+1.12, May=+0.88, June=+0.79, July=+0.10. No negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table