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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Tuesday, October 28, 2014 8:12 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
Swell Potential Rating = 3.0 - California & 1.5 - Hawaii
Using the 'Winter' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)
Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 10/20 thru Sun 10/26

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Hurricane Ana Swell Moving into CA
Another Gale Forecast Tracking Southeast Through Gulf

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

 

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Tuesday (10/28) in North and Central CA surf was waist high and weak with light onshore winds and textured if not nearly chopped. Down in Santa Cruz surf was knee to thigh high and nearly chopped with northwest winds in control outside of the kelp. In Southern California up north surf was thigh high at best and clean with some light northwest texture. Tide was swamping it. Down south waves were waist to chest high and soft coming out of the north with heavy texture on it. Hawaii's North Shore was effectively flat and clean with some sideshore trade wind bump in the mix. The South Shore was occasionally producing waist high.cgius sets and clean. On the East Shore was getting mixed northeast windswell at knee to thigh high and chopped.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
The remnants of Hurricane Ana tracked northeast generating 18 -20 ft seas then were pushing into British Columbia on Tuesday (10/28). Raw windswell was hitting Oregon and Washington with limited swell expected down into Central CA mid-week. Another weak gale is forecast developing in the Gulf falling southeast Wed-Fri (10/31) generating 20-22 ft seas and moving directly into Pt Conception generating swell for California for the weekend, but accompanied by weather too. And another gale is forecast tracking east through the Northern Gulf over the weekend with seas fading from 26 ft. A weaker pattern to follow. 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis.cgius forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview 
Jetstream - On Tuesday (10/28) the jet was consolidated but ridging hard north off Japan pushing up into the Bering Sea, then turning and falling southeast near the dateline into the Gulf of Alaska with winds 160 kts forming a trough there before turning east and tracking into Oregon. Support for gale development was indicated in the trough. Over the next 72 hours the ridge and trough ahead of it are to start pushing east with 160 kt winds holding in the trough and approaching San Francisco on Fri AM (10/31). The trough is to be getting a little pinched at that tie but still supportive of gale development. Beyond 72 hours that trough to move inland over San Francisco early Saturday (11/1) and nearly pinched off. A consolidated but broad unfocused flow to be in.cgiay tracking off the Kurils pushing more or less flat east centered on the 42N latitude reaching across the width of the North Pacific. A ridge is to build in the flow on Tues (11/4) pushing the jet up into the Bering Sea near the dateline again with another trough building in the Gulf but this time nearly pinched off from tit's inception offering only minimal support for gale development even though 150 kt winds are forecast flowing through it. No real support for gale development indicated.  

Surface Analysis  - On Tuesday (10/28) a weak swell pattern was in.cgiay in California and Hawaii. The remnants of Hurricane Ana had become absorbed in a cold core low a weak low and were moving inland over British Columbia. Limited swell was pushing southeast bound for North and Central CA (see Extratropical Gale Ana below).  

Over the next 72 hours a new gale was developing in the Northwestern Gulf on Tues AM (10/28) with 30 kt winds building over a solid area and falling southeast with seas 20 ft at 50N 161W (357 degs HI, 307 degs NCal). Winds to build in the evening to 30-35 kts falling further south with 19 ft seas at 48N 161W (360 degs HI, 305 degs NCal). On Wed AM (10/29) 35-40 kt northwest winds to start falling into the Northern Gulf with seas up to 24 ft in the Northwestern Gulf tracking southeast at 51N 157W targeting Hawaii (360 degs) and the US West Coast (NCal 308 degs). More of the same forecast in the evening with 30-35 kt northwest winds falling southeast and 24 ft seas at 48N 152W (306 degs NCal). 30-35 kt northwest winds to continue moving more to the Central Gulf on Thurs AM (10/30) with 22 ft seas at 45N 145W (302 degs NCal). 30 kt residual northwest winds to hold in the evening off North CA with 22 ft seas at 43N 140W (297 degs NCal). By Fri AM (10/31) the gale is to be dissolving off Cape Mendocino with 25-30 kt northwest winds generating 19-20 ft seas at 41N 135W (292 degs NCal, 302 degs SCal). 25 kt northwest winds to push to within 400 nmiles of North CA in the evening with 17 ft seas at 40N 130W (296 degs NCal). The remnant low is to move inland over North CA Sat AM (11/1). Raw local swell  possible for North and Central CA on Saturday (11/1) Something to monitor. 

Extratropical Gale Ana
The remnants of what was Hurricane Ana were 650 nmiles west-northwest of Kauai late on Fri PM (10/24) with winds back to hurricane force at 65 kt and tracking northeast at 21 kts generating 20 ft seas. Ana continued on that track while accelerating to the northeast Sunday (10/26) with winds down to 50 kts mid-day and becoming absorbed in a cold core low 1500 nmiles north of Hawaii. Seas were down to 16 ft Sun PM (10/26) well off Oregon. This extratropical system continued east with winds 25-30 kts on Monday (10/27) producing 18 ft seas aimed east moving inland over British Columbia Tues AM (10/28) with 18 ft seas lingering off the coast of Washington. Windswell was impacting the Pacific Northwest Tues AM (10/28).

NCal:  Expect windswell from this system to arrive later Tuesday evening (10/28) peaking Wed AM with swell 5 ft @ 12 secs (6 ft faces) and holding through the day.  Residuals expected fading from 4.5 ft @ 10-11 secs (4.5-5.0 ft) early Thurs (10/30) and fading from there. Swell Direction: 290-295 degrees  

  North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest are currently in flight. Perhaps a new depression to develop 400 nmiles south of Puerto Escondido Mexico on Wed (10/29). If it does, it is forecast to quickly recurve north and northeast moving into Mainland Mexico on Mon (11/3). It might barely move into the SCal swell window on Sun (11/2) if one were to believe the models. 

California Nearshore Forecast
On Tuesday AM (10/28) a low pressure was building in the Gulf with another pushing into British Columbia. Weak high pressure was ridging into Central CA. A modest northwest flow at 15 kts was between Monterey Bay and Point Conception with south winds 15 kts for extreme North CA. By Wednesday a light wind flow is to take control for the entire state continuing Thursday.  Light rain possible for extreme North CA late Thurs/early Fri. Then the Gulf low is to be approaching the coast Fri AM with south winds 15 kts for North CA on Fri AM reaching south to Pt Conception late with rain on the same timetable. Theoretically rain is to reach Southern CA early Saturday. Snow is forecast for the Sierra starting Fri PM continuing into Sat evening (maybe 10 inches about 7,000 ft).. High pressure and north winds to build behind starting Sat AM for all of Central CA in the 15-20 kt range continuing Sun-Tues (11/4).    

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis  - A gale with 40 ft seas at 44S 150E (213 degs Fiji) was tracking under Tasmania on Tues AM (10/28) forecast pushing east-northeast reaching the mid-Tasman Sea in the evening with 33 ft seas at 42S 159E (208 degs Fiji), then quickly fading. Swell possible for Fiji arriving at noon Fri (10/31) with period 20 secs and size building fast. Swell to peak on Sat (11/1) at 3 AM local time at 6.9 ft @ 17 secs (11.5 ft Hawaiian) if this comes to pass from 209-211 degrees. Something to monitor.  

And a second system to be right behind with 40 ft seas southwest of Tasmania on Wed AM at 54S 141E (2600 nmiles from Fiji on the 212 degree path).  It's to be tracking east with seas fading from 37 ft Wed PM at 55S 151E  (2350 nmiles from Fiji on the 208 deg path). A quick fade to follow.  Perhaps another pulse of smaller swell to result for Fiji.  

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours a new gale is to be developing in the Eastern Bering Sea on Fri (10/31) with 35-40 kt west winds barely getting exposure southeast of the Eastern Aleutians pushing east in the evening with 30 ft seas projected at 53N 161W. By Sat AM (11/1) 35 kt west winds to be holding while pushing quickly east with 26 ft seas at 53N 153W. A quick fade to follow. Something to monitor.  Otherwise two high pressure cells are to be in control of the North Pacific,  one just off North CA on Tues (11/4) and a stronger one at 1032 mbs on the dateline.  We're in need of the MJO to pulse to feed the jetstream. 

MJO/ENSO Update
Note: The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equatorial Pacific it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slack if not an outright reversal of trade winds and enhanced precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the.cgianet. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to .cgiit resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).

Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) On Tuesday (10/28) the daily SOI was up some at -6.32. The 30 day average was down some at -8.59 and the 90 day average was down some at -8.44. The near term trend based on the 30 day average was indicative of a steady weak Active Phase of the MJO. The longer term pattern was indicative of a steady-state Active Phase of the MJO. A weak high pressure regime is stating to take control south of Tahiti and forecast holding from there. 30 day average SOI numbers to start rising.    

Current equatorial surface wind analysis indicated westerly anomalies over the Maritime Continent reaching almost to  the dateline. Light west anomalies developed south of Hawaii then faded to neutral and pushed into the Galapagos. A week from now (11/5) weak east anomalies are forecast over the Maritime Continent turning to light westerly anomalies over the dateline building to modest strength south of Hawaii reaching half way to the Galapagos. Down at the surface the TOA array indicated modest west anomalies still over the West Pacific. It started 10/16 and has held through 10/27. It is presumed an Active Phase of the MJO was loosing control there and is pushing east. 

Looking at the trend over the past few months there has not been a extended period of enhanced trades so far this year, and we're over 280 days into the year.  The trend is clearly towards westerly anomalies (suppressed trades) which suggests a bias towards El Nino. Big westerly wind bursts occurred Jan-April, followed by a neutral period May into early June. The TOA array surface sensors (the ground truth) indicated moderate westerly anomalies re-developed west of the dateline 6/25-7/6, then again 7/11-7/20, building into a WWB and holding through 8/10. Light westerly anomalies developed again 8/20-8/22, 8/29-9/2, 9/10-9/17, and stronger 9/20-10/8 (a WWB) west of the dateline with another 10/12-10/27 on the dateline. Neutral anomalies filled the gaps. A modest Kelvin Wave is impacting the Galapagos associated with westerly anomalies during June, July into mid-August. And another Kelvin Wave is developing in the dateline region being fed by westerly anomalies in October there. That's two WWBs over the past 20+ days. Compared to La Nina where enhanced trades (20+ kts) would be blowing non-stop, we're in great shape and have been all year. No easterly anomalies of interest have occurred all year. It would be hard to make a case stating some flavor of weak El Nino was not in.cgiay at this point. 

See our new Kelvin Wave Generation Area monitoring model here .

The longer range Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) models (dynamic and statistical) run on 10/27 are generally in sync. They both suggest a weak Inactive MJO pattern over the West Pacific. The Statistic model depicts this Inactive Phase fading over the next 5 days, while the Dynamic model has it rebuilding (not believable) 10-15 days out. Neither model has it tracking east at all. The ultra long range upper level model run 10/28 depicts a weak Inactive pulse in the East Pacific and tracking east while a new weak Active Phase is building in the West Pacific and is forecast pushing east through 11/22.  A dead neutral pattern is to follow into early December. Recent experience this year suggests this model overhypes any projected Inactive Phases. The models are calibrated assuming a neutral global weather pattern, and typically either overcall weather events during La Nina and undercall then during El Nino in the Pacific Basin. This suggests that warming water in the equatorial East Pacific is starting to have some gentle guiding impact on the atmosphere above. The upper level model tends to be a leading indicator, with surface level anomalies lagging behind 1 week or more.    

Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean.  As of the most recent low res imagery (10/27) a moderately warm water regime remains in control of the equatorial East Pacific, down some from the peak of the Kelvin Wave eruptions in late June in the east, but up some since early Sept and building slowly. Warm pockets are building from 100W to 140W, likely the result of the first of a pair of Kelvin Waves impacting the Galapagos region (as expected). TAO data suggests 1.0 deg C anomalies present from the Galapagos to 140W, fading to 0.5-1.0 degs west from there to the dateline. +1.0 deg C anomalies are present west of the dateline. Hi res data suggests a string of pockets of +2.0 deg anomalies from the Galapagos to 125W (the new Kelvin Wave erupting there) with some now to nearly +4 deg C (10/27), and then 1.25-1.5 deg pockets from 155W to well west of the dateline (Kelvin Wave Generation Area), suggesting more warm water is poised to track east. It now appears warm water is building on the surface in the NINO 3.4 region based on TAO  and hi res imagery. 

Elsewhere, the entire North Pacific Ocean is full of warmer than normal water. There are virtually no signs of high pressure induced upwelling streaming southwest off California. And serious warm water is entrenched along the California coast and building in coverage, the exact opposite of the trend of the past 3+ years.This is significant in that is suggests the Gulf of Alaska High pressure system is much weakened relative to normal years, with north winds and upwelling much suppressed. The South Pacific is mostly normal/neutral except for cool water streaming off Southern Chile pushing west reaching up to the equator near 140W. The significant feature of late is that this pocket is in rapid decline and being r.cgiaced with normal if not slightly warmer than normal waters. Given this situation, it suggesting a warm regime is getting the upper hand over the entire Pacific Basin, rather than isolated only to the North Pacific as it has been most of this year. Overall the total amount of warmer than normal water in the North Pacific remains most impressive, while the South Pacific is starting to trend in the same direction.  

Subsurface Waters Temps on the equator continue solidly warm.  As of 10/28 a +1.0 C anomaly flow was filling the equatorial Pacific from 150 meters up and east of 150E with two embedded pockets of +2 deg anomalies at 170W and 90W tracking towards if not into the Galapagos. This is good news in that it indicates the pipe is open and at least one if not two Kelvin Waves are in flight. The leading edge of the first Kelvin Wave is erupting over the Galapagos. Satellite data from 10/20 depicts a broad area of +5 cm anomalies are covering the dateline region and tracking east reaching the Galapagos, indicative of a Kelvin Wave starting to impact that area.  Other models collaborate the presumption of Kelvin Wave genesis. The latest chart of upper Ocean Heat Content (10/20) indicates the first modest Kelvin Wave has developed in the west reaching east to 100W but is making no easterly headway and now confirmed to be erupting to the surface there. A bit of a cooling followed (the presumable upwelling phase) and a new Kelvin wave started building back at 145E-160W in Sept and is now pushing east reaching to 150W (10/20). It is assumed steady light westerly anomalies and 2 recent WWBs events over the past 20 days are feeding more warm water into the pipe. At this time we are well over the proverbial 'hump' and some sort of warm event is underway. As the first of the pair of Kelvin Waves arrives at the Galapagos now, more warm water will reinforce the existing warm pool theoretically pushing things into minimal El Nino territory. And when the second Kelvin Wave pushes east (about 3 months from now or Jan 20) then we are set. Of course what is good enough to feed storm develop and what constitutes an official El Nino are two different things.  We are focused on the former. The quandary now is whether this will be a one year event, or something longer.    

Pacific Counter Current data as of 10/6 suggests an unchanged pattern. The current is pushing west to east over the entire Pacific north of the equator focused on the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) reaching into Central America. If anything it's moving into the moderate to strong category from the West Pacific to a point south of Hawaii. On and just south of the equator the current was generally pushing east to west in the moderate category. Anomaly wise - west anomalies were just north of the equator over the width of the equatorial Pacific strongest between 130E-170E and in pockets reaching to the Galapagos. There were no significant east anomalies indicated. This data suggests a somewhat mixed picture but continued slightly better than the last update and improving incrementally

Projections from the monthly CFSv2 model run 10/28 are stable. It suggests water temps have built to +0.5 deg C and are to hold through Jan 2015 then build slowly into the Spring (+0.65 degs by April 1). But the real interesting part is that water temps are hold decently if not start building from +0.8 degs in May 2015, pushing +1.5 degs C by July. This suggests that perhaps we are moving towards a multi-year warm event. See the chart based version here - link.

Analysis: A downwelling Kelvin Wave was generated and pushed east starting in Aug 2013, followed by a stronger one in Oct-Nov, and a massive one in Jan-April 2014. A weaker one followed in July with yet a modestly stronger one supposedly building in October. The only interruptions have been when the upwelling phase of the Kelvin Wave cycle took over. Water temps in the Galapagos-Ecuador-Peru triangle have held remarkably consistent from May-June 2014 onward, even during upwelling phases. Continued suppressed trades with embedded weak westerly anomalies developed in the West Pacific in July and have held through present time producing the latest Kelvin Wave with 2-3 degs C in flight now. Water temps have held in the Galapagos triangle in the +1.5 degree range for several months now. Certainly there is nor has been any signs of easterly anomalies or a shut down of the Kelvin Wave pipe for better than a year now. This is a huge step forward.

Assuming westerly anomalies continue in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (west of the dateline), more warm water will migrate east. This seems reasonable seeing how there has been virtually no easterly anomalies for the first 9 months of this year. And trades tend to weaken during Fall months in the northern hemi, meaning we're just now starting to reach the point in time where Westerly Wind Bursts should have the best support for development. Most El Nino's do not develop till the Fall, including the Super El Nino of '83/83. Only a few (namely the '97 Super El Nino) developed and survived strong through the summer and over the span of an entire year. A more 'normal' development life cycle would favor the alternating 'downwelling/upwelling' Kelvin Wave cycle. See currently Upper Oceanic Heat Content chart here . Notice the alternating eastward migrating 'cool' and 'warm' cycles (upwelling/downwelling Kelvin Waves). Also note the CFSv2 model accurately depicted the upwelling Kelvin Wave Phase, with water temps in Nino1.2 fading in August then redeveloping in September. 

Finally, there's the 'feedback loop' consideration.  As far as we're concerned it is in.cgiay. Evidence of such includes a total breakdown of the Gulf of Alaska high pressure system, resulting in very high water temps off California. Also the early season recurving of mult.cgie tropical low pressure systems tracking northeast off Japan bound for the dateline.  And the pulse of tropical activity near Hawaii on the week of 8/4 and those systems continued evolution in the West Pacific is most telling. And then the near record pulse of tropical activity off Mexico (8/18-9/20) resulting in Lowell, Super Hurricane Marie, followed by Odile and Polo (though these last 2 produced no swell) and finally Rachel. And then even a few inches of snow in the Sierra on Sept 27 and again on Oct 15 and agin in late Oct. The last time any of this happened was during the '97 and '83 El Ninos. And mult.cgie recurving tropical systems pushed off Japan reaching the Gulf of Alaska in October (Fengshen and Vongfong). The only argument against the feedback loop now is a weak west moving Pacific Counter Current (rather than flowing east).

Only once the ocean and atmosphere are co.cgied on a global level (that is, the ocean has imparted enough heat into the atmosphere to start changing the global jetstream pattern) can one begin to have confidence that a feedback loop is developing and a fully matured El Nino can result. About 3 months of undisturbed heating is required for the atmosphere to start responding on a global level where the point of 'no return' could be achieved from our perspective. The warm pool starting forming in earnest on 5/1, and so the atmosphere would not trip over the 'no-return' point till 8/1. We have passed that threshold. As of 9/2, all the arguments against a feedback loop being in.cgiace were gone except the Pacific Counter Current. 

Note that what we consider 'teleconnected' and what NOAA considers threshold El Nino conditions are two different things and serve different purposes. We are focused on monitoring weather events that contribute to the production of open ocean storms mainly in the Pacific Basin that may or may not have the same impacts as a full blown El Nino. So our criteria is certainly less than the threshold of NOAAs. That said, considering the size and duration of the westerly wind bursts in Jan-April, and the Kelvin Wave that preceded it, it seem hard to believe that at least some Pacific Basin wide 'change' was not already well entrenched even early this year, and had been developing since perhaps as early and Aug of 2013 (when the first Kelvin Wave of the series started taking shape). Monitoring the number, location and track of tropical systems in the North Pacific over October will help to put the final nail in coffin, though given the current track record, it is only a formality at this time. We will continue monitoring westerly wind anomalies and warm subsurface water buildup in and under the Kelvin Wave Generation area. Also monitoring of the NPac jetstream (which has already been productive) and Atlantic hurricane activity (which is nonexistent) are key. But at this time odds continue stacking up in favor that a global teleconnection is now established. If that's true, the focus then becomes estimating how deep the ENSO cycle will become, or whether it will stay shallow but transition into a multi-year event. At this time we're predisposed to the multiyear, Midoki scenario. And that is actually the better of all options.    

At a minimum the ocean is well past recharge mode, with cold water from the multiyear 2010-2013 La Nina cycle dispersed and temperatures on the rise. Officially we are still in a neutral ENSO atmospheric pattern, with no El Nino in.cgiay. But given all current signs, from a winter storm and swell production perspective, atmospheric transition is well underway.  Even if we never reach official El Nino status  this is a far better.cgiace than previous years (2010-2011, 2011-2012 and 2012-2013) under the direct influence of La Nina. Still lingering concerns about what appears to be a decadal bias towards a cooler regime (since 1998) will temper our forecasts.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool and more details in the  El Nino Update Updated 12/4/13 

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast. 

Details to follow...

****

External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave

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Local Interest

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http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

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