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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: October 30, 2005 6:24 PM GMT
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
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Swell Potential Rating = 3.0 - California & 2.0 - Hawaii
Using the 'Winter' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)
Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    
Issued for Week of Monday 10/31 thru Sun 10/6
Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Utility swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of Utility swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Moderate Gulf Pattern To Persist
Dateline Area To Remain Locked-Down

 

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
On Sunday (10/30) Northern CA surf was chest to shoulder high and clean. South facing breaks were waist to chest high. Central California surf was chest to head high. Southern CA breaks from Santa Barbara to just north of LA were chest high at the best breaks though most spots were thigh high or less. The LA area southward into Orange County was up to waist high. Southward to San Diego waves were waist to chest high. The North Shore of Oahu was waist-chest high and coming up. The South Shore was waist high. The East Shore was thigh high.

Surf has really dropped off over Northern California but is starting to come up just a little on Hawaii's North Shore. But in all the trend remains down with no large surf in the water or on the charts. Best odds remain in the east Pacific as a series of generally weak gales is forecast to push through the Gulf of Alaska through the workweek with all fetch aimed east. This pretty much puts Hawaii out of luck other than the swell starting to hit there now and easterly windswell down the road. This also put's a damper on Southern CA because the swell angle will be steep out of the north. Central and North Ca are best positioned, but it's all relative. See details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
On Sunday (10/30) the jetstream continued much like it has for the past few weeks with a moderate ridge in the west pushing the jet over the Aleutians near the dateline then dipping south in the Gulf of Alaska, pushing inland over the Pacific Northwest. Wind speeds up there were generally pretty moderate, with the highest winds circulating through the trough in the Gulf at 140 kts, supporting a weak upper level low there. Pretty uneventful. The dateline ridge is to drift east through Wednesday making some headway in to the Gulf of Alaska while a very weak trough (dip) develops off Northern Japan, setting up some hope for the West Pacific and diminishing productivity in the Gulf. But that pattern is to moderate through the weekend with the jet splitting off the Kuril Islands only consolidating just east of the dateline and then sagging south in the Gulf of Alaska again. The net result is much the same as what we're currently seeing, with whatever action there is focused in the Gulf of Alaska.

Today at the surface a small but potent high pressure system at 1032 was sitting just south of the Aleutians right on the dateline, totally blocking the Aleutian Storm Corridor and forcing any Siberia energy into the Bering Sea. Not good. A weak 992 mb low was in the Gulf providing 25 kt northwest fetch aimed southeast towards the Pacific Northwest and California. That low is to wrap up on Monday with pressure dropping to 988 mbs with some 40-45 kt west winds and 27 ft seas forecast in it's south quadrant aimed well at Vancouver Island with sideband energy forecast pushing south. But it's to be gone by early Tuesday (11/1) as the dateline high pushes southeast. For the time of year the pattern is most weak indeed. Other than swell from the Dateline Gale (below) focused on Hawaii, period to remain below 13 secs putting it all in the windswell category

 

Dateline Gale
Also on Wednesday (10/26) a 984 mb gale low pushed off Kamchatka tracking east with 40-45 kts winds developing in it's south quadrant centered at 48N 162E aimed due east. The low tracked towards the Bering Sea in the evening with winds south of the Aleutians confirmed down to 35 kts centered at 48N 172E. Seas had built to 29 ft centered at 48N 165E. By Thursday AM (10/27) it moved into the Bering Sea near the dateline with pressure 988 mbs and winds south of the Aleutians fading to 30 kts aimed due east with 27 ft seas positioned at 48N 175E continuing into the evening. Then a gradual decay is forecast Friday and Saturday as the low tracks through the Bering Sea with limited 30 kt fetch continuing south of the Aleutians pushing towards the Gulf of Alaska and seas generally in the 23 ft range.

In all the first part of this system has produced winds and seas aimed reasonably swell down the 319-328 degree great circle paths to Hawaii and up the 308 degree path to California but a long ways away. Best bets are that some decent swell is likely pushing southeast towards Hawaii with only small longer period energy pushing towards California.

Expect swell arrival in Hawaii starting Sunday (10/30) with swell 3.7 ft @ 15-16 secs late (5.0-5.5 ft faces) maxing early Monday (10/31) at 4.7 ft @ 13 secs (5.5-6.0 ft faces). Residual energy fading through the day Tuesday. Swell Direction: 319-328 degrees

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

California Offshore Forecast
On Sunday (10/30) the models continue to suggest that 3 low pressure systems are to track through the Gulf over the coming week all trying to punch a hole in high pressure that is forecast to hold just off the California coast at 1022-1024 mbs, with none of them succeeding. That's not to say periods of light drizzle won't pass over the San Francisco area, but no large scale rain systems forecast. Local winds to remain generally light. Generally a neutral pressure pattern to prevail with no windswell producing fetch forecast over the offshore waters.

The 5 Day wind forecast is now included with the surf & swell overview in the QuikCAST's.

 

South Pacific

Overview
On Sunday (10/30) no swell producing fetch suggested for the coming 72 hours.

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

QuikCAST

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours starting Wednesday (11/2) a series of 2 very weak lows (not even gales) with 30 kts winds are to push east through the Gulf with all their fetch aimed at the Pacific Northwest and North California. Sea to 21 ft forecast from each providing some weekend potential.

 

South Pacific

At the surface beyond 72 hours the models depict a moderate gale low pushing under New Zealand on Tuesday/Wednesday (11/2) with 35-40 kt fetch aimed east and up to 30 ft seas forecast for a fleeting moment. This has possibilities for sizeable background swell for Hawaii, but it's highly doubtful it will develop as strong as the models suggest. Another weaker pulse to follow early next weekend.

Details to follow...


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Local Interest

Stormsurf Weather Model Update: Over the weekend (10/30) we moved new new code into production that should dramatically improve the efficiency and reliability of our weather models. We've had problems with them not keeping in-sync with the wave models. Hopefully that problem is now resolved though we're still dependent on NOAA data servers just like everyone else. What this fix does do is provide the infrastructure now to rapidly expand our offering of weather models, enabling more detailed global coverage. We will be working on that as time permits.

Rob Gilley Photgraphy: Please take amoment to check out the selection of limited print images availabe at Rob Gilleys webite. All images in the 2005 line were taken by Rob Gilley, an 19 year Surfer Magazine staff photographer, and are personally signed and numbered by him: http://www.pacificsurfgallery.com

Tutorial on the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) Presented by Dr. Roland Madden: If you're interested in El Nino and the MJO, have a basic understanding of El Nino, and you have broadband connection, audio and Macromedia Flash installed, then the following presentation is a must see. Dr Madden present a great overview of how the MJO works. And there's nothing like hearing it straight from the founders mouth. Link here: http://meted.ucar.edu/climate/mjo/mjonav0.htm

Read all the latest news and happenings on our News Page here

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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