On Thursday (11/2) Northern CA surf was waist to chest high, weak and unorganized but clean early. South facing breaks in Santa Cruz were waist to chest high. Central California surf was waist to chest high, maybe a little more. Southern CA breaks from Santa Barbara to just north of LA were maybe waist high with many spots less. The LA Area southward to Orange County had surf waist high pushing chest high on the sets at the best breaks. Southward from Orange County into San Diego best breaks were waist high with a few bigger sets. The North Shore of Oahu was maybe waist high. The South Shore was flat. The East Shore was waist to maybe chest high.
Hawaii wasn't seeing any surf of interest today. California wasn't doing too much today either. Maybe a little bit of southern hemi swell was trying to show in Southern CA, but rare. Weak low pressure is off California trying to generate some windswell, with some of that energy expected into the North and Central coasts over the weekend. A stronger gale is forecast for the Gulf of Alaska next week that might push some larger swell into the north half of the state, but that is far from guaranteed with the models downgrading this system from earlier indications. Another series of lows are forecast mid-next week, one north of Hawaii and another for the Gulf with a third off the Kuril Islands, but none are to be strong and no solid swell generation potential suggested from any of them. Pretty lackluster for now. See details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
Thursdays jetstream charts (11/2) indicated a building flow pushing flat east off Japan at 140 kts, but fading as it approached dateline and dipping south slightly, then tracking east flat just north of Hawaii and into Central California but very weak. A bit of a split flow was still in effect with limited energy pushing northward up the Kuril Islands and north of the Bering Sea, stealing some punch from the southern branch tracking over the North Pacific. In all only faint support for gale development over the dateline and again off California. Over the next 72 hours through Sunday (11/5) a split pattern to fade even more as increased energy starts pushing east from Japan dipping slightly over the dateline then pushing strongly into the Pacific Northwest. Winds to 130 kts covering almost the width of the North PAcific. Still no real defined troughs suggested, but the energy level coming up is promising. Beyond 72 hours the jet is forecast to become less coherent over the West Pacific with a fragmented and pinched trough sitting over the dateline while stronger energy continue pushing into North California with a weak trough hinted at just off the coast there Wednesday (11/8). But that to push quickly onshore with a strong ridge setting up late week with a weak flow behind it. More energy looks poised to push off Japan though, but confidence is very low that far into the future. In all not a very supportive flow for development of low pressure, but a definite transition towards winter.
At the surface today weak low pressure at 996 mbs was off the Pacific Northwest coast with a second low at 1000 mbs over the dateline, but neither was exhibiting any swell producing winds. Weak high pressure was off Southern CA trailing back towards Hawaii providing some protection for the coasts there. Over the next 72 hours through Sunday (11/5) the California low is to try and ramp up slightly with a small area of 30-35 kt winds and 15 ft seas taking aim at the coast last Thursday and expected to provide a little windswell for the weekend, but not much. At the same time the dateline low is to try and ramp up too, but start moving fast northeast. Most fetch from this system to take aim on Alaska but maybe a little to push south on Sunday. Again, not much surf wise to result.
Tropical Storm Cimaron had stalled midway between the Northern Philippines and HongKong with winds 55 kts. This system to do a slow fade at this location and die there by Saturday.
Otherwise no named tropical systems of interest were being monitored.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
California Offshore Forecast
On Thursday (11/2) weak low pressure at 996 mbs was pushing into the Pacific Northwest driving a light to moderate south flow over nearshore waters as far south as Pt Conception. This to continue into mid-Friday as the low slowly lifts north and pushes inland then gives way to a hint of high pressure off South California and a weak northerly flow. That high to continue providing protection south of San Francisco for the weekend into next week even as another strong low pushes into the Pacific Northwest Sun/Mon. A much stronger high and brisk north winds are forecast pushing into the California coast mid-next week if the models are right, meaning lot's of north chop for 2 days then.
On Thursday (11/2) at the surface and through the next 72 hours there were no indications of any swell producing fetch in the South Pacific.
2nd, 3rd & 4th South CA Pulses
On Tuesday (10/24) a tiny 960 mbs low was on the eastern edge of the California swell window just off the edge of Antarctic Ice generating a small area of 40-45 kt winds aimed northeast towards California up the 190 degree great circle path and holding through evening. 30 ft seas were modeled by evening at 55S 138W building to 32 ft Wed AM at 52S 130W. This low to tracked east with fetch fading as it pushed out of the SCal swell window. A second low formed in the same region Wed PM (10/25) generating 45 kts southwest winds aimed again well towards SCal producing 32 ft seas at 55S 120W expected to continue into the evening with 32 ft seas pushing out of the swell window from 50S 110W. Yet a third pulse developed Fri/Sat generating 32 ft seas Sat midday at 54S 115W then pushing totally out of the Scal swell window. Some form of small but continuous swell likely for exposed south facing breaks in Southern California starting Thursday (11/2) at 2 ft @ 16 secs (3 ft faces from 180 degrees) and continuing at that height into the following weekend.
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours low pressure tracking from north of Hawaii to reach the Pacific Northwest coast early Monday (11/6) generating a limited fetch of 40 kt winds and 20 ft seas pushing south, possibly setting up some raw windswell for the Pacific Northwest and Northern CA Monday into Tuesday, then high pressure to build in over the Gulf of Alaska. this high to generating brisk north winds down the California coast Wed/Thurs (11/9) of next week making a choppy mess. At the same time yet another low to setup just west of hawaii tracking fast to the northeast slamming into the Pacific Northwest early Friday maybe pushing a brief moment of fetch south towards California, but likely just more windswell. High pressure to be setting up over the dateline afterwards. In all no real swell producing fetch of interest indicated.
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch is indicated.
Details to follow...
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table