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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: November 2, 2006 10:39 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
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Swell Potential Rating = 0.9 - California & 2.9 - Hawaii
Using the 'Winter' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)
Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    
Issued for Week of Monday 10/30 thru Sun 11/5
Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Utility swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of Utility swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Another False Start
Still Waiting for Real NPac Activity

 

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
On Thursday (11/2) Northern CA surf was waist to chest high, weak and unorganized but clean early. South facing breaks in Santa Cruz were waist to chest high. Central California surf was waist to chest high, maybe a little more. Southern CA breaks from Santa Barbara to just north of LA were maybe waist high with many spots less. The LA Area southward to Orange County had surf waist high pushing chest high on the sets at the best breaks. Southward from Orange County into San Diego best breaks were waist high with a few bigger sets. The North Shore of Oahu was maybe waist high. The South Shore was flat. The East Shore was waist to maybe chest high.

Hawaii wasn't seeing any surf of interest today. California wasn't doing too much today either. Maybe a little bit of southern hemi swell was trying to show in Southern CA, but rare. Weak low pressure is off California trying to generate some windswell, with some of that energy expected into the North and Central coasts over the weekend. A stronger gale is forecast for the Gulf of Alaska next week that might push some larger swell into the north half of the state, but that is far from guaranteed with the models downgrading this system from earlier indications. Another series of lows are forecast mid-next week, one north of Hawaii and another for the Gulf with a third off the Kuril Islands, but none are to be strong and no solid swell generation potential suggested from any of them. Pretty lackluster for now. See details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Thursdays jetstream charts (11/2) indicated a building flow pushing flat east off Japan at 140 kts, but fading as it approached dateline and dipping south slightly, then tracking east flat just north of Hawaii and into Central California but very weak. A bit of a split flow was still in effect with limited energy pushing northward up the Kuril Islands and north of the Bering Sea, stealing some punch from the southern branch tracking over the North Pacific. In all only faint support for gale development over the dateline and again off California. Over the next 72 hours through Sunday (11/5) a split pattern to fade even more as increased energy starts pushing east from Japan dipping slightly over the dateline then pushing strongly into the Pacific Northwest. Winds to 130 kts covering almost the width of the North PAcific. Still no real defined troughs suggested, but the energy level coming up is promising. Beyond 72 hours the jet is forecast to become less coherent over the West Pacific with a fragmented and pinched trough sitting over the dateline while stronger energy continue pushing into North California with a weak trough hinted at just off the coast there Wednesday (11/8). But that to push quickly onshore with a strong ridge setting up late week with a weak flow behind it. More energy looks poised to push off Japan though, but confidence is very low that far into the future. In all not a very supportive flow for development of low pressure, but a definite transition towards winter.

At the surface today weak low pressure at 996 mbs was off the Pacific Northwest coast with a second low at 1000 mbs over the dateline, but neither was exhibiting any swell producing winds. Weak high pressure was off Southern CA trailing back towards Hawaii providing some protection for the coasts there. Over the next 72 hours through Sunday (11/5) the California low is to try and ramp up slightly with a small area of 30-35 kt winds and 15 ft seas taking aim at the coast last Thursday and expected to provide a little windswell for the weekend, but not much. At the same time the dateline low is to try and ramp up too, but start moving fast northeast. Most fetch from this system to take aim on Alaska but maybe a little to push south on Sunday. Again, not much surf wise to result.

 

Tropics
Tropical Storm Cimaron had stalled midway between the Northern Philippines and HongKong with winds 55 kts. This system to do a slow fade at this location and die there by Saturday.

Otherwise no named tropical systems of interest were being monitored.

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

California Offshore Forecast
On Thursday (11/2) weak low pressure at 996 mbs was pushing into the Pacific Northwest driving a light to moderate south flow over nearshore waters as far south as Pt Conception. This to continue into mid-Friday as the low slowly lifts north and pushes inland then gives way to a hint of high pressure off South California and a weak northerly flow. That high to continue providing protection south of San Francisco for the weekend into next week even as another strong low pushes into the Pacific Northwest Sun/Mon. A much stronger high and brisk north winds are forecast pushing into the California coast mid-next week if the models are right, meaning lot's of north chop for 2 days then.

 

South Pacific

Overview
On Thursday (11/2) a
t the surface and through the next 72 hours there were no indications of any swell producing fetch in the South Pacific.

 

2nd, 3rd & 4th South CA Pulses
On Tuesday (10/24) a tiny 960 mbs low was on the eastern edge of the California swell window just off the edge of Antarctic Ice generating a small area of 40-45 kt winds aimed northeast towards California up the 190 degree great circle path and holding through evening. 30 ft seas were modeled by evening at 55S 138W building to 32 ft Wed AM at 52S 130W. This low to tracked east with fetch fading as it pushed out of the SCal swell window. A second low formed in the same region Wed PM (10/25) generating 45 kts southwest winds aimed again well towards SCal producing 32 ft seas at 55S 120W expected to continue into the evening with 32 ft seas pushing out of the swell window from 50S 110W. Yet a third pulse developed Fri/Sat generating 32 ft seas Sat midday at 54S 115W then pushing totally out of the Scal swell window. Some form of small but continuous swell likely for exposed south facing breaks in Southern California starting Thursday (11/2) at 2 ft @ 16 secs (3 ft faces from 180 degrees) and continuing at that height into the following weekend.

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours low pressure tracking from north of Hawaii to reach the Pacific Northwest coast early Monday (11/6) generating a limited fetch of 40 kt winds and 20 ft seas pushing south, possibly setting up some raw windswell for the Pacific Northwest and Northern CA Monday into Tuesday, then high pressure to build in over the Gulf of Alaska. this high to generating brisk north winds down the California coast Wed/Thurs (11/9) of next week making a choppy mess. At the same time yet another low to setup just west of hawaii tracking fast to the northeast slamming into the Pacific Northwest early Friday maybe pushing a brief moment of fetch south towards California, but likely just more windswell. High pressure to be setting up over the dateline afterwards. In all no real swell producing fetch of interest indicated.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch is indicated.

Details to follow...


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Local Interest

New Book: Inside Mavericks - Portrait of a Monster Wave: Ace photographer Doug Acton, cinematographer Grant Washburn and San Francisco Chronicle writer Bruce Jenkins have teamed up to present an insiders view of Mavericks. Read all the first hand accounts from Peter Mel, Ken 'Skin Dog' Collins, Grant Washburn, Mark Renniker and the rest of the gang as they describe the game of surfing one of the largest waves in the world, fully illustrated with the hauntingly artistic images from Doug Acton, long-time Mavericks lensman. There's even a section featuring Stormsurf! Get your autographed copy here: http://www.insidemavericks.com/

Towsurfers & Paddle-in Surfers - Participate in the Draft Environmental Impact Statement: The draft EIR for the new Monterey Bay Marine Sanctuary management plan has been released. Public comment will be accepted until January 7, 2007. The link provided has all of the information that is pertinent to anyone wishing to participate in the crafting of the new regulations. It cannot emphasize enough the importance of making your comments part of the public record as such comments will be used to re evaluate the proposed regulations before inclusion into the final EIR. This will be the public's last and best chance to shape regulations in our Monterey Bay. If you are passionate about what you do, direct that passion into active participation in this process. http://sanctuaries.noaa.gov/jointplan/involved.html

Stormsurf Iceberg Breakup Analysis/Decide for Yourself: There been some debate concerning the facts around the breakup of Iceberg B15A. Here's a short exercise that helps to drive out the facts around the research: http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/news/ice_wam.shtml

Stormsurf Supports Antarctic Iceberg Breakup Study: CNN is reporting the story of a storm in the Gulf of Alaska in Fall of 2005 that contributed to the breakup of Antarctic Iceberg B15A. We all know that South Pacific storms produce swells that provide surf for California in the summer, but has anyone considered the implications of what monster winter storms in the North Pacific do to the South Pacific? That is the subject of a research paper by professor Doug MacAyeal from the University of Chicago. He and his team traveled to Antarctica and instrumented a series of icebergs with seismometers to see if they could understand what causes icebergs to break up, and their findings are insightful. And best of all, Stormsurf contributed data in support of their research (and received authorship credits to boot). This is a great example of how the science of surfing interacts with other pure science disciplines. All the details are available in this months edition of 'Geophysical Research Letters' and the synopsis is available here: http://www.cnn.com/2006/TECH/science/10/02/iceberg.cracks.reut/index.html

New Stormsurf Local Wave Models: Nine months in development and testing, Stormsurf is proud to announce the release of our upgraded local wave models. More locations, more fidelity, more variables imaged including sea height, swell period, wind speed & direction, and wave height plus the older style composite images of surf height and wind all updated 4 times daily. Check them out here: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_wam.html

Stormsurf Google Gadget - Want Stormsurf content on your Google Homepage? It's simple and free. If you have Google set as your default Internet Explorer Homepage, just click the link below and a buoy forecast will be added to your Google homepage. Defaults to Half Moon Bay CA. If you want to select a different location, just click on the word 'edit', and a list of alternate available locations appears. Pick the one of your choice. Content updates 4 times daily. A great way to see what waves are coming your way!
http://www.google.com/ig/add?moduleurl=http://www.stormsurf.com/gadget/stormsurf .xml

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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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