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BUOY ROUNDUP
On Tuesday, November 23, 2021 :

• Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor)/Buoy 239 (Lanai)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 3.1 ft @ 6.7 secs with swell 2.5 ft @ 6.4 secs from 157 degrees. Water temp 79.2 degs (Pearl Harbor 233), NA (Lani 239), 79.7 (Barbers Pt).
• Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 4.2 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 2.8 ft @ 13.3 secs from 333 degrees. Water temp 79.3 degs.
• Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 1.4 ft @ 12.8 secs with swell 1.0 ft @ 12.2 secs from 188 degrees. Wind at the buoy was south at 4-6 kts. Water temperature 60.3 degs, 59.9 (Topanga 103), 60.8 degs (Long Beach 215), 62.8 (Del Mar 153), 64.8 (Pt Loma 191). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 1.1 ft @ 12.2 secs from 198 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 0.9 ft @ 12.4 secs from 201 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 0.9 ft @ 12.5 secs from 194degrees. Southward at Point Loma (191) swell was 1.0 ft @ 12.9 secs from 185 degrees.
• Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 4.9 ft @ 5.6 secs with swell 1.7 ft @ 13.3 secs from 291 degrees. Wind at the buoy (012) was northwest 16-18 kts. Water temp 58.1 (Pt Reyes 029), 57.4 (46026), 56.3 degs (SF Bar 142), and 56.5 (Santa Cruz 254).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

 

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Tuesday (11/23) North and Central CA had no waves with light onshore wind conditions. Protected breaks were flat and textured with underlying warble and light onshore wind. At Santa Cruz surf was flat and clean. In Southern California/Ventura waves were flat and clean. Central Orange County was flat with a steady southerly breeze making for some texture. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at knee to maybe thigh high and maybe waist high on the peak of the biggest sets and heavily textured and crumbled from southerly wind. North San Diego was flat and clean. Hawaii's North Shore was getting some sets at chest high and clean and lined up but inconsistent and weak. The South Shore was flat and clean. The East Shore was getting east windswell at thigh high and chopped from modest local east wind.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (11/23) Hawaii was quiet with no surf of interest occurring. California was flat with nary a rideable wave to be found. A gale was developing in the Northern Gulf on Sat-Sun (11/21) producing 21 ft seas building to 28 ft and barely in the NCal swell window. Swell arrival on Tues PM (11/23). Another gale fell southeast through the Western Gulf on Sat (11/20) producing 21 ft seas aimed southeast possible offering something for Hawaii. That swell is hitting now. A stronger gale developed on the dateline Sun-Tues (11/23) with up to 37 ft seas aimed east with secondary fetch from it forecast producing 24-26 ft seas in the Western Gulf aimed southeast on Tues-Wed (11/24). And residual fetch from that system is to reorganize in the Gulf Wed-Thurs (11/25) producing 25-27 ft seas aimed east. And yet another is to be developing in the Western Gulf on Fri (11/26) producing 25 ft seas aimed at Hawaii and the US West Coast. And perhaps and broader system to develop in the Northwestern Gulf on Mon (11/29) producing 33 ft seas aimed east. So an improving pattern is possible, but nothing stellar.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Tuesday (11/23) the jet was reasonably consolidated tracking east off Japan with winds 170 kts there then ridging slightly before falling into a trough just east of the dateline being fed by 150 kts winds offering good support for gale development. From there the jet ridging northeast and then pushed into the Pacific Northwest. Over all a little more wind energy was depicted in the jet as compared to weeks past. Over the next 72 hours the dateline trough is to track east and fade in the Eastern Gulf on Thurs (11/25) no longer supporting gale formation. But the wind energy over Japan is to start expanding east reaching the dateline on Thurs (11/25) and starting to carve out a trough in the Western Gulf by early Fri (11/26) offering some support for gale formation. Beyond 72 hours that trough is to build late Fri-early Sat (11/27) with winds to 200 kts feeding it offering good support for gale formation in the Western Gulf on Sat (11/27) before pinching off on Sun (11/28). By Mon (11/29) the jet is to start splitting weakly over Japan but with the main flow still pushing off the coast down at 30N reaching to the dateline with winds 130 kts then being rejoined by the split flow over the dateline with winds building to 180 kts while lifting northeast over the Gulf of Alaska perhaps starting to carve out a new trough in the Northern Gulf into Tues (11/30) offering some support for gale development. The jetstream is finally going to try.

Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (11/23) no swell was hitting California but small swell was hitting Hawaii from a small gale previously over the North Dateline region (see North Dateline Gale below). And different small swell was radiating towards California from a gale previously in the Northern Gulf (see North Gulf Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours swell from a gale that previously built on the dateline with secondary energy in the Western Gulf is to be radiating southeast towards Hawaii and CA (see Dateline Gale below).

 

North Dateline Gale
Also on Fri AM (11/19) a small fetch of westerly winds at 35 kts was developing over the North Dateline region getting traction and producing 20 ft seas at 47N 178E aimed southeast. In the evening fetch was fading at 30 kts falling southeast with seas 18 ft at 45.5N 178W aimed east. Secondary westerly fetch developed Sat AM (11/20) over the North Dateline Region at 35 kts with seas building from 18 ft at 49N 177W. In the evening 30-35 kt northwest winds were falling southeast producing 19 ft seas at 46N 171W aimed southeast. On Sun AM (11/21) fetch was gone being consumed by a new gale developing on the dateline. Maybe some sideband swell to result for Hawaii.

Oahu: Sideband swell arriving on Tues (11/23) building to 3.3 ft @ 12 secs (4.0 ft) later. Swell fading Wed (11/24) from 2.4 ft @ 11-12 secs early (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 330 degrees

 

North Gulf Gale
On Fri PM (11/19) a gale was building in the Northern Gulf producing 35 kt southwest winds with seas building. On Sat AM (11/20) the gale was over the Northern Gulf with 30-40 kt westerly winds and seas 21 ft aimed east. In the evening the gale was getting better formed producing 40-45 kt west winds and 24 ft seas at 52.5 149.5W aimed east and in the NCal swell window at 317 degrees. On Sun AM (11/21) west winds were 40 kts over a small area with seas 29 ft at 55N 141.5W aimed east but east of the NCal swell window. The gale moved inland after that over Alaska. Some sideband swell has resulted and hit buoy 46006 near noon on Mon (11/22) propagating southeast.

North CA: Low odds of swell arriving on Tues (11/23) at sunset building to 2.0 ft @ 12 secs (2.5 ft). This swell mixed with local windswell building on Wed (11/24) to 5.0 ft @ 10 secs (4.5 ft). Swell Direction: 315 degrees

 

Dateline Gale
On Sun AM (11/21) a more impressive gale started building over the Dateline Region producing northwest winds at 45-50 kts with seas building from 22 ft at 37N 174E aimed southeast. The gale tracked east in the evening with 50-55 kt west winds and seas building from 32 ft at 38.5N 177.25W aimed east. On Mon AM (11/22) fetch was nearly stationary over the dateline at 50-55 kts from the west with 37 ft seas at 43N 173.25W aimed east. In the evening the gale was fading over the dateline with 40-45 kt west winds and seas 35 ft at 45N 172.25W aimed east.

On Tues AM (11/23) secondary fetch was building from 30-35 kts from the northwest over the dateline over a building area with seas 20-26 ft over a broad area centered at 43N 175W aimed east. In the evening 30-35 kt northwest fetch is to be falling southeast with 26 ft seas at 43N 174.75W aimed southeast. On Wed AM (11/24) fetch is to be fading from 30-35 kts moving into the Central Gulf with 24 ft seas over a small area at 39.25N 168W aimed southeast. The gale is to fade from there.

Tertiary fetch is to redevelop Wed AM (11/24) in the Central Gulf producing 40 kt west winds and seas building from 24 ft at 42.5N 158W aimed east. In the evening west winds are to be lifting northeast at 40+ kts with seas 29 ft at 44.25N 151.25W aimed east. Fetch racing northeast on Thurs AM (11/25) at 35 kts off Washington with seas 23 ft at 46N 143W aimed east. The gale is to dissipate from there.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on starting later on Wed (11/24) building to 3.6 ft @ 13 secs (4.5 ft). Swell building on Thurs (11/25) to 5.8 ft @ 13-14 secs mid-day (7.5 ft) and holding. Secondary energy arriving on Fri (11/26) before sunrise building to 6.3 ft @ 13-14 secs at day break (8.5 ft). then slowly tapering through the day. Smaller energy on Sat (11/27) fading from 3.6 ft @ 11-12 secs early (4.0 ft). Dribbles on Sun (11/28) fading from 3.8 ft @ 11 secs (4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 320-325 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (11/25) building to 1.6 ft @ 17 secs at sunset (2.5 ft). Swell building overnight and on Fri (11/26) building later to 4.2 ft @ 14-15 secs (6.0 ft). Swell building more on Sat (11/27) as secondary and tertiary energy arrives at 5.3 ft @ 13-14 secs (7.0 ft). Swell fading on Sun (11/28) from 3.9 ft @ 13 secs (5.0 ft). Dribbles on Mon (11/29) fading from 3.5 ft @ 11-12 secs (4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 295 degrees moving to 290 degrees

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest are forecast.

California Nearshore Forecast

• Wed (11/23) north winds are forecast at 20-25 kts for North CA early and 10-15 kts for Central CA though likely lighter nearshore. In the afternoon north winds are forecast at 10-15 kts for North CA and 10 kts for Central CA.
• Thurs (11/24) north to northeast winds are forecast at 5-10 kts early for both North and Central CA fading to calm later.
• Fri (11/25) light north winds are forecast at 5-10 kts early for North and Central CA maybe building to 15 kts over parts of North Ca later.
• Sat (11/26) northwest winds are forecast at 10-15 kts early for North CA and 5 kts for Central CA and in the afternoon north at 10 kts for North CA and northwest 5 kts for Central CA later.
• Sun (11/27) northwest winds to be 10 kts for North CA and 5 kts for Central CA early fading to 5 kts for all location later.
• Mon (11/28) northwest winds to be 10 kts early for North and Central CA early building to 10-15 kts later all location.
• Tues (11/29) northwest winds to be building at 15+ kts early for North and Central CA and 20 kts for North CA later and 10-15 kts for Central CA.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 0, 0, 0, and 0 inches.

Freezing level 7,500 ft today rising to 12,000 ft on 11/25 and holding there for the foreseeable future.

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Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level (more here - scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!

 

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell producing fetch has occurred of is forecast.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours starting Fri PM (11/26) a new fetch of 35-40 kt westerly winds is to be building over the Western Gulf with seas building from 24 ft at 39.5N 163.25W aimed east. On Sat AM (11/27) west fetch is to be fading from 30-35 kts in the Gulf with 25 ft seas over a modest sized area at 37N 159W aimed east. The gale is to fade from there with seas fading from 20 ft at 38N 155W aimed east.

On Sat AM (11/27) a new gale is to be building over the Northern Dateline region with 40-45 kts west winds and seas building to 26 ft at a tiny area at 47N 180 W aimed east. In the evening 35-40 kt west winds to push east with seas 27 ft at 48.75N 175.5W aimed east. The gale is to collapse from there.

Another gael is to develop in the Western Gulf on Sun PM (11/28) producing 35-40 kt west winds with seas building. On Mon AM (11/29) the gael is to wind up in the Northern Gulf with 50 kt west winds and seas 29 ft at 51.75N 155.25W. In the evening west fetch fading from 40 kts in the extreme Northern Gulf with seas 29 ft at 55N 154W aimed east.

And yet more fetch is to push into the Gulf on Mon PM (11/29) with 35 kts west winds and seas 21 ft at 42N 150W aimed east. On Tues AM (11/30) 45+ kts west fetch is to lift northeast with 30 ft seas at 52N 145W aimed east.

And yet more fetch is to be developing behind that over the Northwestern Gulf on Tues PM (11/30).

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

La Nina Cold Surface Water Surging
Summary - Cool subsurface water volume peaked under the equatorial Pacific on 10/15/21, beating last years volume, and now is fading in coverage and apparently starting to surge to the surface. The forecast does suggest weak west anomalies taking over the Western KWGA in January and filling 40% of the KWGA after that with the low pressure bias slowly building in from the west. It is possible the cold subsurface pool is now erupting to the surface in the East Pacific, possibly signaling the peak of La Nina. No significant west anomalies seem likely to significantly impact the volume and depth of cold water under the Central Equatorial Pacific before Winter is well underway.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST

Fall /Winter 2021-2022 = 3.0 (California & Hawaii) Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But La Nina is making a strong return as we move into the end of Sept much like what the CFS model suggested would happen. So at this point we are speculating that the CFS model will verify and that a full double dip La Nina pattern will take hold as we move into November with this second La Nina dip being nearly as strong as the previous one. But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late Fall (Nov) with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern at that time and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Dec. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter. But by later in Jan 2022 perhaps a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. As a result a somewhat reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct-Dec, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by later Winter (2022), the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The status of the PDO is not known, though it appears to be returning to at least a neutral state, rather than the warm phase as previously projected thereby having no significant positive or negative effect on the long term outlook.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (11/22) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. Anomalies were light east over the East equatorial Pacific and modest east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (11/23) east anomalies were strong over the entire KWGA and reaching east to a point south of Hawaii. The forecast calls for strong east anomalies filling the KWGA centered near the dateline through the end of the model run on 11/29. Strong west anomalies are to be poised over the Maritime Continent right to the western edge of the KWGA but not pushing into it.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:  
OLR Models: (11/22) A neutral MJO signal was indicated over the KWGA today and is forecast holding unchanged for the next 15 days. The dynamic model projects a modest Active Phase is to be building over the KWGA on day 10 of the model run holding on day 15.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (11/23) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was weak over the Maritime Continent and is forecast tracking to the West Pacific at day 15 of the model run and exceedingly weak. The dynamic model suggests the same thing but with the Active Phase a little stronger.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (11/22) A weak Inactive MJO signal (dry air) was indicated over the Central Pacific today. The Inactive Phase (dry air) is to be track east and into Central America on 12/17. Another Inactive Phase (dry air) is to develop over the KWGA on 12/12 pushing to the East Pacific at the end of the model run on 1/1. there is no sign of the Active Phase (wet air) forecast.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (11/22) This model depicts a neutral MJO pattern over the KWGA but with moderate to strong east anomalies still in control. The forecast indicates a Active MJO signal building over the Maritime Continent pushing into the KWGA on 12/2 with west anomalies reaching to 160E on 12/6 then backtracking to the western edge of the KWGA on 12/13 and holding there with the west anomaly pattern parked on the western edge of the KWGA through the end of the model run on 12/20.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (11/23 - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day): Today the Inactive Phase of the MJO was almost east of the KWGA with moderate to strong east anomalies filling the KWGA. The forecast indicates the Inactive MJO signal is to traverse the KWGA through 12/3 with east anomalies in control over the KWGA peaking now through 12/1. A weak Active Phase is forecast developing 12/1 with a second pulse on 12/5 holding through 12/28 with west anomalies trying to push through the KWGA to 150E, but with spotty coverage at best. A mix of weak Inactive and Active MJO pulses is to follow through the end of the model run with west anomalies slowly stabilizing at 150E gaining control of the KWGA. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias with 2 contour lines was centered over the dateline and is to hold while slowly easing east with it's leading edge to 120W on 1/4 and stalling there beyond. And a third contour line is now forecast starting on 12/25 holding beyond. A broad single contour low pressure bias is now established centered over the Maritime Continent at 100E with it's leading edge at 125E and barely in the KWGA and is forecast starting to move east further into the KWGA on 12/27 reaching to 150E on 2/4 filling 45% of the KWGA and building east from there. Today a solid east anomaly pattern that has been in control of KWGA since early July is still in control and there's no clear and believable sign of it being dislodged anytime soon. La Nina is to prevail this Winter.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (11/23) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was gone today, previously at 164E. The 28 deg isotherm line was holding at 179E. The 24 deg isotherm was easing east to 135W. Warm water is holding position. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +2 deg C were pushing east and now steady at 150W. All sensors are down at 140W so this is a little suspect. Cool anomalies were fading from -3 degs C at 105W down 75 meters and tracking east and almost gone from the East Pacific. No Kelvin Waves were obvious and cool water was in control in the east at depth but definitely less of a force than weeks and months past. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 11/19 is less optimistic indicating no warm water east of 150W at depth with a bubble of cold water at -4C below normal east of there (where the sensors are inoperable) extending upward to the surface and into Ecuador but with less intensity than weeks past and definitely losing ground. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (11/19) Sea heights were negative over the East equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to 150W at -5 cms with shrinking area of -15 cms anomalies between 90W-130W. No -20 or -25 cms anomalies exist anymore. It seems that the coverage of negative anomalies is in quick decline. All positive anomalies were limited from 170E and points west of there at 20 to 25 cms. A warm water 'horseshoe' pattern is well developed in the West Pacific. La Nina made a return and stronger than last year, but now appears to be in decline, at least from the subsurface water temp perspective. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram La Nina subsurface cold temperatures peaked in coverage in mid-Oct, far broader than last year (-2.5 degs C), but as of 11/19 that coverage is collapsing centered at 110W with the coolest anomalies (-2.5 degs) gone and -2.0 deg anomalies shrinking fast from the west while building east. It appears a cold water Kelvin Wave (upwelling Kelvin Wave) is tracking east.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (11/22) The latest images depict a broad stream of cool water on the equator but weakening though still dominant along Chile and Peru then turning west and quickly building from just off Ecuador over the Galapagos and building in concentration tracking peaking out to 130W then weaker west of there. Cooling nearshore along Chile and Peru was still present. A homogenous area of warm water just north of the equator was fading some from Ecuador west to 140W and up along Central America into Southern Baja and fading. Overall this indicates the return of cold water temps in the Central Equatorial Pacific indicative of La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (11/22): Temps were warming weakly along Chile and Peru and west along the equator to 105W. Of more interest temps were cooling over a thin but solid stream from 110W to 140W. A cold water Kelvin Wave is erupting at the surface in the East equatorial Pacific.
Hi-res Overview: (11/22) A broad stream of cooler than normal water was aligned on the equator from Ecuador to 110W then stronger out to 130W then weaker to 160E. Cooler than normal waters were also south of that line down to 20S. Warmer than normal waters were limited to a line north of the equator up to Mexico and along the US Coast up to Pt Conception. A very weak cool outflow is in place pushing from South California southwest to the a point over Hawaii's Big Island but far weaker than previous. La Nina is making a solid resurgence focused over the Central Pacific.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (11/23) Today's temps were steady at -1.644 after bottoming out on 11/16 at -1.653, the lowest in months after previously toggling steady at about -0.6 degs from mid Aug to Oct 6, then falling from there. Before that temps were toggling around neutral 6/13-8/5 except for one dip to -0.411 on 7/8. Prior to that temps peaked on 3/16 when they briefly hit +0.714 degs. Last year temps bottomed out at -2.138 on 8/13/20. The longterm trend has been steadily downward.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (11/23) Today temps were stable at -0.818 after rising to -0.685 on 11/9, and that after bottoming out at -1.08 on 11/2, the lowest in a year. Prior to that temps had been in a freefall starting from the -0.175 range in early Sept. Before that temps peaked up at 7/1 +0.332, the highest in a year. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3/2020.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (11/23) - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June then fading to -0.3 degs through Aug and to -0.75 degs in mid Oct. The forecast indicates temps to continue a dramatic fall from here forward dropping down to -1.50 in mid Jan 2022 then quickly pushing up to +0.00 degs in July 2022. This model suggests a return of La Nina conditions and strongly so this Fall and Winter. There is no indication that El Nino will develop. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps falling to -1.35 degs in late Nov starting to rise slowly after mid-Jan 2022. At this point that is as good a guess as any. And the model has been unwavering in this projection for months now.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Oct 20, 2021 Plume depicts temps are at -0.90 degs today, and are to fade to -0.91 degrees in Nov, then rising to -0.46 degs in Feb and neutral in April 2022. A solid return of La Nina is expected this Fall and early Winter 2021-2022.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator) (11/23): The daily index was positive at +8.40. The trend has been towards positive readings with previous notable peaks were at +36.90 on 9/28, +27.75 on 9/13 and +37.86 on 7/15. The 30 day average was rising at +8.21 after previously falling to +6.06 on 11/6 after peaking at +11.58 on 10/22. Before that it fell to -3.36 on 6/22, the lowest in a year. It peaked at +19.51 on 1/14. The 90 day average was steady today at +9.38 after falling to +7.10 on 11/1. It previously peaking on 9/21 at +9.80 after falling to it's lowest point in a year on 6/9 at +1.06. The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 on 2/23 (clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggest La Nina is returning.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative every since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'). If anything it appears more likely we are still in the cool phase of the PDO.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

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Powerlines

Jeff Clark

Inside Mavericks

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table