On Thursday (12/1) Northern CA surf was unrideable and blown to bits, estimated at waist to chest high. South facing breaks were equally as inviting at waist to chest high and blown out. Central California surf was waist to chest high with bigger sets. Southern CA breaks from Santa Barbara to just north of LA were waist high to chest high at the best spots, with most something less. The LA area southward into Orange County was also waist high with sets to nearly chest high. Southward to San Diego waves were waist to chest high. The North Shore of Oahu was head high to 1 ft overhead. The South Shore was flat. The East Shore was head high.
Hawaii was doing well today, though California had it's moments on Wednesday. But rain and wind have moved into the Golden State and Hawaii is back in the top spot and expected to remain that way for the next week. A improving series of strong gales.weak storm are now on the charts tracking from off Japan to the dateline and a little further east, building into next week. Nothing firm yet, but the pattern is forecast to be improving, and with the surf height should be heading up for all location long term. See details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
Thursdays (12/1) jetstream analysis is not much different from what was represented a few days earlier, namely a strengthening jet consolidating and pushing east. Today a thin area of moderate winds at 150 kts were pushing straight east off Japan centered on the 31N latitude and fading as it approached the dateline. The pronounced split in the jet that has been so evident the past week or more has started faded in the west with only a small stream breaking off from the main flow pushing north in to the bering seas and almost retrograding into Siberia. Remnants of the two distinctly separate streams were still pushing inland over California. Still the problem continues to be the split, shearing most energy north towards the Bering Sea and leaving only unorganized surface level moisture to drift east over Hawaii and California. No big change forecast over the next 72 hours. Beyond 72 hours starting Sunday (12/4) the jet is to start surging east off Japan with winds building to 170 and making good headway to the dateline before the split occurs, and then even further by next Tuesday (12/6) with winds up to near 180 kts reaching almost to Hawaii before showing signs of backing off. If this occur, it is assumed some semi-real storm energy will track further east into the North Pacific, though there are no signs of any significant troughs developing in the jet capable of supporting large scale storm development. And by next Thursday (12/8) the jet is to be fully consolidated tracking east from Japan right into British Columbia with no sign of a split, but with no major troughs either, a big zonal flow. But at least California and hawaii are to be clear of any direct impact from the jet likely making for fair weather there, with all the storm energy to the north.
Today at the surface moderate high pressure at 1028 mbs remained centered well north of Hawaii just west of the Central Gulf of Alaska totally blocking the Aleutian Storm Corridor. Very weak low pressure was over Oregon, just north of Hawaii and over the dateline, but none had any swell producing winds of interest. Pretty calm for winter standards. But a building change in the upper levels is to have an impact at the surface. The first small signs are to be a low developing northwest of Hawaii and just east of the dateline on Saturday (12/3) with pressure dropping to 988 mbs late with winds briefly up to 50 kts over a tiny area centered near 38N 170W aimed well at Hawaii down the 320 degree great circle path but well south of any path to California. Seas to 29 ft late Saturday at 36N 165W in close proximity to Hawaii. It's to be all but gone by Sunday through. Sizeable swell for the Islands possible by Monday Am (12/5).
Another small low is forecast for the dateline on Sunday (12/4) with pressure 988 mbs and winds 50 kts over a tiny area aimed due east, about 30 degree east of the 315 degree path to Hawaii and 20 degrees south of the 294 degree path towards California. Seas 30 ft over a tiny area by nightfall. This low to deepen to 976 mbs on Monday (12/5) aimed even more easterly passing the 330 degree path to Hawaii but right up the 298 degree path to North CA then fading out by evening. Seas 29 ft over a tiny area pushing east. This ought to be good for a little swell for both Hawaii and North/Central California with next to nothing pushing into Southern CA.
Previously on Monday (11/28) a low northwest of Hawaii had confirmed winds at 40 to near 50 kts centered near 35N 164E that slowly faded through the evening (40-45 kts) and were down to and estimated 35-40 kts this AM. These winds were aimed well at Hawaii down the 310-312 great circle paths. Seas were modeled at 25 ft starting late Monday and expected to hold for 24 hours. This is good for some decent 13-14 sec period swell for Hawaii starting late Friday (12/2) into Saturday.
See QuikCAST for details.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
California Offshore Forecast
On Thursday (12/1) weak low pressure at 1000 mbs was trying to push onshore over Southern Oregon bringing winds and rain to the North and Central coasts. High pressure at 1032 mbs that has been clogging the Aleutian Storm Corridor for a week or more was on the move heading southeast destined for California. The interaction of this high and the low off Oregon was generating a gradient and broad fetch of 30-35 kts winds aimed a bit south of the state but expected to improve through the evening. No big change forecast Friday until late when the gradient dissolves. A bit of north winds forecast locally though. 17-19 ft seas forecast well offshore during this episodes duration aimed right at North and Central CA, with windswell of some size expected to reach the coast for Saturday (12/3). The high is to provide protection from an onslaught of inclimate weather over the coming week with generally good condtiions prevailing once north wind subside Sunday.
The 5 Day wind forecast is now included with the surf & swell overview in the QuikCAST's.
No swell producing fetch forecast over the next 72 hours.
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours high a broad low is forecast to develop just off Japan on Sunday (12/4) dropping to 968 mbs late Monday with winds building to 50-55 kts over a small area aimed east, supported by the improved jetstream flow aloft. Seas building to 37 ft. The low is to track east-northeast and slowly weaken with winds 45-50 kts through the day Tuesday making it to the dateline late. Winds are to be aimed best at Hawaii but with decent fetch also pushing towards California. Seas 38-39 ft. Residual 40-45 kt winds are forecast through the day Wednesday (12/7) as the low pushes towards the Gulf of Alaska and dissipates. Seas supposedly building to 41-42 ft over the dateline aimed right at North CA. 30 ft residuals to be decaying and pushing south and east through the day Thursday. If this happens as forecast some solid long period swell could finally result for all the usual spots that can handle the energy, though not large, just solid.
Beyond 72 hours the models suggest a little low is to form south of Hawaii over the weekend (12/3) but most of it's winds are to be aimed a targets east of Hawaii. Seas to 22 ft. With a lot of luck maybe some weak impulse swell for the Islands with nothing for the US west coast. Otherwise no swell producing fetch forecast.
Details to follow...
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Sharks, Sharks and more Sharks: Want to know all the details of every shark encounter over the past few months in California? You can read all about it in the fascinating chronology produced be the Shark Research Committee. There's alot more going on in our waters than you could ever have imagined (or ever wanted to know). http://www.sharkresearchcommittee.com/pacific_coast_shark_news.htm
Stormsurf Weather Model Update: Over the weekend (10/30) we moved new new code into production that should dramatically improve the efficiency and reliability of our weather models. We've had problems with them not keeping in-sync with the wave models. Hopefully that problem is now resolved though we're still dependent on NOAA data servers just like everyone else. What this fix does do is provide the infrastructure now to rapidly expand our offering of weather models, enabling more detailed global coverage. We will be working on that as time permits.
Rob Gilley Photgraphy: Please take amoment to check out the selection of limited print images availabe at Rob Gilleys webite. All images in the 2005 line were taken by Rob Gilley, an 19 year Surfer Magazine staff photographer, and are personally signed and numbered by him: http://www.pacificsurfgallery.com
Tutorial on the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) Presented by Dr. Roland Madden: If you're interested in El Nino and the MJO, have a basic understanding of El Nino, and you have broadband connection, audio and Macromedia Flash installed, then the following presentation is a must see. Dr Madden present a great overview of how the MJO works. And there's nothing like hearing it straight from the founders mouth. Link here: http://meted.ucar.edu/climate/mjo/mjonav0.htm
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table