Surf Forecasts and Marine Weather - No Hype - Just the Facts!
See Video Forecast HERE (9/20)
Buoys | Buoy Forecast | Models: Wave - Weather - Surf - Altimetry - Snow | Pacific Forecast | QuikCAST | El Nino | Tutorials | Great Circles | Video

Google

Stormsurf Mobile App

Create Your Own Surf Forecast
Swell Calculator
Swell Decay Tables
Sea Height Tables
Swell Category Table
Convert from GMT:
 
 to timezone:

---

Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Monday, December 2, 2019 2:18 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
3.5 - California & 3.5 - Hawaii
Using the 'Winter' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 12/2 thru Sun 12/8

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Gulf Gale Swell Hitting HI & CA
Another Gulf Gale Forecast - More Behind That

BUOY ROUNDUP
On Monday, December 2, 2019 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai)/Barbers Point (Buoy 238) : Seas were 3.0 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 2.1 ft @ 7.9 secs from 177 degrees.
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 10.7 ft @ 15.4 secs with swell 7.1 ft @ 14.7 secs from 306 degrees.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 7.7 ft @ 12.8 secs with swell 4.9 ft @ 13.3 secs from 266 degrees. Wind at the buoy was southeast at 4-6 kts. Water temperature 62.1 degs. At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 6.9 ft @ 12.8 secs from 291 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 4.5 ft @ 10.3 secs from 260 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 2.2 ft @ 12.2 secs from 270 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 3.6 ft @ 16.1 secs from 271 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 12.8 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 8.0 ft @ 12.9 secs from 290 degrees. Wind at the buoy (012) was southeast at 23-31 kts. Water temp 54.3 degs (013), 54.5 degs (012) and 55.0 degs (042).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Monday (12/2) in North and Central CA windswell and local gale swell was producing waves at 2-3 ft overhead and raw and lumpy with firm south-southeasterly winds blowing. Protected breaks were chest to shoulder high and lined up and with decent form but pretty raked by hard southeast wind. At Santa Cruz surf was head high or so and and south wind chopped mess. In Southern California/Ventura the same swell was hitting nicely with waves shoulder high and peaks to slightly overhead and lined up and clean and peeling. In North Orange Co waves were head high and lined up and clean and a bit closed out with a solid southerly current. South Orange Country's best summertime breaks were chest high and very clean and lined up but soft. North San Diego had waves at head high up to 2 ft overhead and clean and lined up but a bit on the soft side. Hawaii's North Shore was getting sideband northerly swell from a low previously in the Northwest Gulf with waves 3-4 ft overhead and lined up and clean but with warble in the water. The South Shore was thigh high and clean. The East Shore was getting the same northerly swell with waves 10 ft on the face and chopped from east-northeast trades blowing pretty hard.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Monday (12/2) in Hawaii swell from a gale previously in the Northwestern Gulf of Alaska that fell southeast Thurs-Sat (11/30) with up to 36 ft seas was hitting the Islands producing well rideable surf. California was also getting swell from that same gale. And another gale is to develop in the Northwestern Gulf on Tues (12/3) with 30 ft seas falling southeast then redeveloping a bit off the North Ca coast on Thurs-Fri (12/6) with 37 ft seas aimed southeast. Another small gale is forecast for the North Dateline region on Fri-Sat (12/7) with 34 ft seas aimed east. And yet a stronger one is forecast tracking off the Kuril Islands on Mon (12/9) with 42 ft seas aimed east. So more swell is in the forecast.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Monday (12/2) the jetstream was consolidated pushing over Japan wit winds to 160 kts but splitting just off the coast with most energy running hard north up over Kamchatka then tracking east over the Aleutians dipping just south of them over the Northwestern Gulf then pushing into North Canada. Then southern branch was tracking east on the 30N latitude line. A cutoff trough was extending southwest off South and Central CA making for weather there. But overall no solid troughs and no support for gale development was indicated. Over the next 72 hours starting Tues (12/3) the jet off Japan is to build with winds to 190 kts still split and riding hard north but then falling into a developing trough over the Northern Gulf being fed by 140 kts winds with that trough getting more organized while falling southeast into Wed PM and Thurs AM (12/5) offering good support for gale development. And at the same time winds to build off Japan reaching east to the dateline at 210 kts though not forming a trough yet. Beyond 72 hours the trough off California is to be slowly weakening and tracking east pushing inland on Sat (12/7) with support for gale development fading. But back to the west the jet is to be raging with 190 kts winds pushing over the dateline on Fri (12/6) forming a flat trough over the Northern Dateline and with that trough starting to fall southeast on Sat (12/7) offering good support for gale development in lower levels of the atmosphere. That trough is to start pinching off on Mon (12/9) in the Northwestern Gulf while a new trough starts building on the dateline being fed by 160-170 kts winds consolidated and pushing east on the 35-40 N latitude line running from Japan to the Western Gulf and offering good support for gale development. A promising pattern is to set up.


Surface Analysis
On Monday (12/2) swell from a gale previously north of Hawaii was hitting the Islands and also pushing into California (See Gulf Gale below). And swell from a local gale off North CA was hitting that area now (see North CA Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours another gale is to start building in the Northern Gulf of Alaska on Tues AM (12/3) with 45 kt north winds over a small area and seas building from 30 ft at 48N 167.5W aimed southeast. In the evening 35-40 kt northwest winds are forecast falling southeast and seas building in coverage at 30 ft at 46N 161W aimed southeast. On Wed AM (12/4) northwest winds to be 30-35 kts with seas 30 ft at 42N 155W aimed southeast. In the evening the gael is to be reorganizing off the NCal-OR border with 40-45 kts north winds and 25 ft seas over moderate area at 38N 151W aimed southeast. On Thurs AM (11/5) north winds are to build to 50 kts with 34 ft seas at 42N 142W aimed south. In the evening the gale is to hold if not build with 45 kt north winds and seas 34 ft at 40N 142W aimed southeast. The gael is to ease east on Fri AM (12/6) with northwest winds 30 kts and seas 34 ft at 40N 141W aimed southeast. The gale is to fade some in the evening with northwest winds 30-35 kts and seas 25 ft at 37N 137W aimed southeast. The gale is to fade from there. Something to monitor.

 

Gulf Gale
On Wed PM (11/27) a new storm was building in the Northwestern Gulf producing 30 kt north winds with seas building. On Thurs AM (11/28) the storm started producing 45 kt northwest winds tracking slowly east with seas building to 24 ft at 48N 160W aimed southeast. In the evening 50-55 kt northwest winds built to 55kts with 36 ft seas at 50N 154W aimed southeast. On Fri AM (11/29) winds held in coverage but were fading from 40-45 kts out of the northwest with 31 ft seas at 51N 153.5W aimed southeast. In the evening the gale started falling southeast with 35-40 kt northwest winds and seas 29 ft at 45N 152N. On Sat AM (11/30) the gale was falling southeast with northwest winds 30 kts and seas 26-28 ft at 40N 145W aimed southeast. In the evening the gale continued falling southeast fading with 40 kt northwest winds 900 nmiles off San Francisco and seas 32 ft at 37N 142W aimed southeast. The gale faded from there Sun AM (12/1) with seas dropping from 25 ft at 33N 140W targeting mainly open ocean between Hawaii and Baja.

Hawaii: Swell fading on Mon AM (12/2) from 6.6 ft @ 14 secs (9.0 ft). Swell Direction: 355-010 degrees

North CA: Swell to continue on Mon (12/2) at 6.2 ft @ 13-14 secs early (8.0 ft) but fading fast. Residuals on Tues (12/3) fading from 3.4 ft @ 11-12 secs (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 300 degrees moving to 290 degrees

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored.

California Nearshore Forecast
On Mon (12/2) south winds were blowing at 20-25 kts for all of North and Central CA forecast fading to 15-20 kts later. Rain all day from Pt Conception northward and pretty heavy for the Big Sur area. moderate wet snow for Tahoe fading in the evening. Tues (12/3) south winds to continue at 10-15 kts for all of North and Central CA all day. Light rain mainly for Central CA in the morning. No snow forecast. Wednesday (12/4) a new little low is to wind up just off the Central Coast with south winds 20+ kts there early fading to 5-10 kts later and a light offshore flow for North CA all day. Rain early for all of Central and South CA with modest snow for higher elevations of the Central Sierra in the evening. On Thurs (12/5) a new gale is to be building off the coast with south winds 10-15 kts over all of North and Central CA early building to 30 kts over North CA later and 20 kts for Central CA. Light rain building mainly overnight mainly along the entire Central and North coast. On Fri (12/6) south winds to be 20-25 kts for Central CA and up to 30 kts in spots over the North Coast early fading some for most of North and Central CA late afternoon. Rain for North CA early building down to morro Bay late evening. Snow building for Tahoe at sunset and reaching into the mid-Central Sierra in the evening. Sat (12/7) southwest winds to be 20-25 kts for North CA early and 15 kts for Central CA fading to 10-15 kts everywhere later. Rain all day for Pt Conception northward all day. Solid snow for the North and Central Sierra all day and evening. On Sun (12/8) a light northwesterly flow is forecast all day and fading through the day. Light rain early along the coast. Snow fading from Sierra early. On Mon (12/9) a light offshore flow is forecast all day. no precipitation is forecast.

Total snow accumulation for the week for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl and Kirkwood at 53, 49, 44 inches respectively and 0 inches down into Bear Mountain in Southern CA. The ski season is begriming.

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!

 

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell producing fetch is occurring.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours starting Fri AM (12/6) a tiny gale is to start building on the North Dateline region producing west winds at 45 kts over a small area with 37 ft seas at 49N 179W aimed east. this is mainly just a primer system. In the evening 40 kt west winds to push east some with 33 ft seas moving east to 50N 171W aimed east. The core gale is to fade on Sat AM (12/7) but be backbuilding again on the North Dateline region with 34-45 kt northwest winds taking root and seas 23 ft over a broad area at 50N 176W aimed east. In the evening the fetch is to consolidate at 40-45 kts aimed southeast with 32 ft seas building at 47N 179.5E aimed southeast. Fetch is to ease east on Sun AM (12/8) with seas 33 ft at 48.5N 175.5W aimed southeast. This gale is to be fading in the evening with west winds 30+ kts and seas 29 ft at 48N 169W aimed southeast.

And on Sun PM (12/8) a new gale is to be building off the Kuril Islands with northwest winds 50-55 kts and seas 37 ft at 44.5N 162E aimed east. On Mon AM (12/9) west winds to be 45-50 kts with seas 44 ft at 44N 168E aimed east. The gael is to be fading in the evening with 40-45 kt west winds and seas 42 ft at 42.5N 174.5E aimed east. Something to monitor.

 

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

 

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

Active MJO Fading Out - Kelvin Wave #6 Tracking East

The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).

Overview: A double dip La Nina was in control through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then rebuilt late in Feb associated with Kelvin Wave (#3). But as of early June 2019 warm water was fading and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. El Nino was dead.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall/Winter 2019/2020 = 5.0/4.0 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It is assumed the PDO has moved to the warm phase and that a weak borderline El Nino from 2018 is fading out, but not yet completely gone, especially in the atmosphere. Likewise it looks like a La Nina ocean temperature pattern is developing in the equatorial East Pacific, with cooler than normal waters tracking west on the equator. We assumed El Nino like momentum will hold for a while in the atmosphere will take a while to sense that the ocean temperature pattern has changed. But once it does, a turn towards a La Nina like atmospheric pattern will start to develop. that transition is expected in the late Nov-early Dec timeframe. Even so, moderation from the PDO might prevent La Nina from fully developing. Given all that, there is decent probability for a normal start to the Fall surf season (in the Northern Hemisphere) meaning a normal amount of number of storm days and storm intensity, resulting in a normal levels of swell, with normal duration and normal period. But by mid-Dec 2019, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start fading and as a result, swell production should fade slightly as well. This pattern is expected to hold through April 2020.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (11/26) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific fading over the Central Pacific then rebuilding on the dateline then turning strong westerly over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the far East equatorial Pacific continuing over the Central Pacific and then turning strong westerly over the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (12/2) westerly anomalies were moderate filling the KWGA today. The forecast calls for west anomalies holding moderately for another 2 days then steadily fading and turning weak easterly at the end of the model run on 12/9.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: (12/1) A weak Inactive MJO signal was over the far west KWGA today. The statistic model indicates this weak Inactive Phase is to hold. building slightly on day 10 and then moving to the dateline at day 15. The dynamic model indicates the Inactive Phase is weak in the far West KWGA and is to build to moderate status on day 10 moving to the nearly the dateline at day 15. So there is some disparity in the strength forecast between the 2 models.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (12/2) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was weak over the West Indian Ocean today and is to hold in that position through day 15. The GEFS model suggests the Active Phase is weak and moving east to the Maritime Continent at day 15.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model): (12/2) This model depicts a weak Active MJO over the Central Pacific today. This Active Pattern is to track east steadily pushing into the Central America on 12/22 and then gone. A weak Inactive Phase is to start building in the West Pacific 12/7 tracking east pushing into Central America on Jan 6. A modest Active Phase is to again start building over the KWGA on 12/22 pushing to the Central Pacific at the end of the model run on 1/11.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (12/1) This model depicts the Active Phase was holding moderately over the dateline today with moderate west anomalies filling the KWGA and holding steady. West anomalies and the Active Phase of the MJO are to hold at moderate to strong strength in the core of the KWGA and filling it through 12/6 then tracking east and out of the KWGA by 12/8. Beyond the Inactive Phase of the MJO is to start building into the far West KWGA starting 12/6 and filling the KWGA on 12/10 holding through the end of the model run on 12/29.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (12/2) This model depicts the Active Phase of the MJO was gone in the KWGA but with west anomalies still solidly in control mainly on the dateline and the Inactive Phase starting to develop in the Western KWGA. The Inactive Phase is to build in the KWGA holding through 1/3 but with west anomalies forecast holding in the in the KWGA through 12/8 fading some, then starting to rebuild 12/26. Another modest Active Phase is to develop tracking east through the KWGA 12/29 through 2/20. Weak west anomalies are forecast holding during that period. The Inactive Phase is to reappear 2/15 through the end of the model run on 3/1. The low pass filter indicates a low pressure bias with 2 contour lines in control of the KWGA centered on the dateline reaching east to the California coast. The second contour line is to hold till 2/25, then collapse. A high pressure bias built in the Indian Ocean starting 10/22 and is to hold through the end of the model run through getting slightly weaker at the end of the run. A strong area of east anomalies in the Indian Ocean is now forecast to significantly weaken by 2/15.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (12/2) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 deg isotherm was backtracking to 175E while the 29 deg isotherm was steady at 171W. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 160W today. The 24 deg isotherm was backtracking to 110W today. Anomaly wise, gentle warm anomalies are filling the entire Pacific with an interesting pocket at 2-3 degs building from the Maritime Continent moving east from 154W indicative of a new Kevin Wave (#6) building today. A smaller area of warm water at +2 degs was centered at 102W pushing into Ecuador indicative of Kelvin Wave #5 pushing east there. Warm water was filling the entire equatorial subsurface Pacific from 110 meters upwards. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 11/24 indicates warm water from Westerly Wind Burst #5 had formed a Kelvin Wave extending from 150E under the Dateline east and impacting Ecuador with temps +2-3 degs over the whole area with a small pocket of cool anomalies previously just off Ecuador gone now. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (11/24) A small area of positive anomalies were fading on the equator between 90-110W at +0-5 cms. A new pocket of +5 cms anomalies has developed back at 150E-170W. Negative anomalies were gone along Peru. A mostly neutral sea height pattern is setting up with a a few pockets biased positive.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (12/1) The latest images ( 1.2 3.4 ) indicate warming anomalies were building along Peru up into Ecuador with a stream of modest warm anomalies building west on the equator over the Galapagos out to the dateline. Weak cool anomalies were south of the equator off Peru but fading fast reaching west to only 105W. Weak warm anomalies were on and north of the equator building while tracking west to the dateline.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (12/1): Today a small area of warming was along Peru steaming west off Ecuador on the equator out to 100W. Pockets of cooling were interspersed along the equator from Ecuador to 140W. The short term trend is now towards warming in the far East South Pacific. This is a step in the right direction.
Hi-res Overview: (12/1) A weak fading area of cool anomalies is trying to hold on south of the equator and off Peru reaching out to 125W. Otherwise gentle warming is pushing west on the equator, strongest from 100W and points west of there on the equator and south to 5S. Warmer than normal water was north of the equator from the remnants of El Nino, but mostly gone south of the equator. Water temps appear to be stable mildly favoring El Nino.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (12/2) Today's temps were rising at +1.402 after previously dropping down to -1.921 degs on 10/10, that after falling to -1.8 degs on 9/15, then up to +0.030 on 10/2. Temps have been pretty consistently negative since June 1.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(12/2) Temps were toggling today at +0.036. Temps previously rose on 11/14 to +0.509 degs, and that after previously bottoming out on 8/28 at -0.510 degs and 9/15 at -0.60 degs. The trend has been steadily generally upwards since Sept.

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (12/2) Actual's indicate a cooling trend set up late summer with temps -0.2 degs in mid-Sept then rising to +0.25 degs in early Oct rising to +0.4 degs in early Nov. The forecast has temps holding in the +0.4-0,5 degree range into June, then fading to +0.20 in late July. According to this model a neutral sea surface temperature pattern biased slightly warm is forecast for the mid-term, possibly turning neutral after that.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Oct 2019 Plume depicts temps are at +0.25 degs, and are to hold in the +0.25 deg range into May 2020, then fading slightly to +0.15 in June 2020. See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad) (12/2): The daily index was positive today at +6.80 but has been mostly negative the last 40 days. The 30 day average was negative but rising at -9.07. The 90 day average was rising slightly at -8.48, suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern was developing.
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): Oct +0.33 Sept +1.13, August +0.64, July +0.75, June -0.32, May +1.10, April +0.30, March +1.0, Feb +1.29, Jan +0.193. This index has been steadily positive but still indicates mostly ENSO neutral conditions (not El Nino).

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Per NOAAs index recent values: June 2017 +0.21, July -0.50, Aug -0.62, Sept -0.25, Oct -0.61, Nov -0.45, Dec -0.13, Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan -0.23, Feb -0.55 This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO, even with La Nina, because the warm PDO appears to be dampening the effects of La Nina. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): June 2017 +0.79, July +0.10, Aug +0.09, Sept +0.32, Oct +0.05, Nov +0.15, Dec +0.50, Jan +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

****

External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave


Powerlinessurf Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest

Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for the week starting Sunday (12/1):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=980Zt-Ff5WM&feature=youtu.be&hd=1
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

- - -

NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Stormsurf and Mavericks on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Mavericks Invitational Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

285

.
Contact | About | Disclaimer | Privacy
Advertise/Content | Links
Visit Mark Sponsler on Facebook Visit Stormsurf on Instagram Visit Stormsurf on YouTube
Copyright © 2020 STORMSURF - All Rights Reserved
This page cannot be duplicated, reused or framed in another window without express written permission.
But links are always welcome.
Buoys | Buoy Forecast | Models: Wave - Weather - Surf - Altimetry - Snow | Pacific Forecast | QuikCAST | El Nino | Tutorials | Great Circles | Calculator