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BUOY ROUNDUP
On Thursday, December 16, 2021 :

• Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor)/Buoy 239 (Lanai)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 3.1 ft @ 16.7 secs with swell 1.3 ft @ 15.8 secs from 294 degrees. Water temp 76.1 degs (Pearl Harbor 233), NA (Lani 239), 77.7 (Barbers Pt).
• Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were NA ft @ NA secs with swell NA ft @ NA secs from NA degrees. Water temp 77.2 degs.
• Buoy 067 (San Nicholas): Seas were 7.2 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 4.4 ft @ 13.1 secs from 305 degrees. Water temperature 60.4 degs, 59.2 (Topanga 103), 58.1 degs (Long Beach 215), 59.9 (Del Mar 153), 59.9 (Imperial Beach 155). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 4.4 ft @ 10.3 secs from 293 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 2.7 ft @ 10.1 secs from 258 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 0.9 ft @ 14.8 secs from 223 degrees. Southward at Torrey Pines (Outer) (100) swell was 2.8 ft @ 12.2 secs from 274 degrees.
• Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 12.8 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 9.6 ft @ 12.2 secs from 299 degrees. Wind at the buoy (012) was northwest at 10-14 kts. Water temp 54.9 (Pt Reyes 029), 54.0 (46026), 53.8 degs (SF Bar 142), and 53.8 (Santa Cruz 254).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

 

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Thursday (12/16) North and Central CA had set waves at head high to 1 ft overhead and pretty lumpy and bumpy with no real form and modest northwest wind. Protected breaks were head high and lumpy and closed out. At Santa Cruz surf was chest to shoulder high and warbled and mushed but fairly clean but not with very good form. In Southern California/Ventura waves were thigh to maybe waist high and weak and soft and jumbled but clean. Central Orange County was getting nice waves at head high to 1 ft overhead on the peaks of the sets with good form and peeling and clean. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at maybe waist high and clean but soft and weak. North San Diego had sets at waist high and lined up and clean with occasional sections. Hawaii's North Shore was getting limited sideband swell with waves chest high and clean when they came but pretty weak. The South Shore was flat to knee high and clean. The East Shore was getting northeasterly windswell with sets chest high and modestly chopped from east-southeast trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Thursday (12/16) North and Central California was getting raw leftover swell from gale that developed over the Northern Gulf on Fri (12/11) falling southeast producing up to 30 ft seas then moved off California through Tues (12/14) with seas in the 26-28 ft range. A bit of a gale developed off North Japan Tues-Wed (12/15) producing 29 ft seas aimed east but faded before reaching the dateline. Small swell is radiating towards Hawaii. A small local gale developed off the Pacific Northwest Wed (12/15) producing up to 25 ft seas aimed southeast at North and Central CA. That swell is radiating south now. A very weak system is forecast off California Sun-Tues (12/21) producing up to 18 ft seas. But then nothing till a stronger system develops in the Northern Gulf falling south Wed-Fri (12/24) producing up to 24 ft seas aimed south. And maybe a small system to develop off North Japan on Tues (12/21) producing 33 ft seas aimed east but not moving even to the dateline. The Central Pacific is locked down by high pressure leaving only the edges in play.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Thursday (12/18) the jet was pushing east off Japan with winds 160 kts but starting to split only half way to the dateline. The jet split in earnest at 170W with a weak an ill formed flow east of there though the northern branch in general was ridging up into the Northern Gulf then falling southeast along the US West Coast but with winds only 90-100 kts not offering any real support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours starting Fri (12/17) winds to build to 170 kts over Japan racing east then splitting solidly just west of the dateline with the northern branch ridging north into the Bering Sea then falling hard south on Sat (12/18) carving out a building trough in the Northeastern Gulf with the apex of that trough positioned 700 nmiles off North CA on Mon (12/20) offering good support for gale development. And winds are to hold at 170 kts stream off Japan and following the course previously carved out but the jet up into the Bering Sea. Beyond 72 hours starting Tues (12/21) more of the same is forecast with the trough holding off California but turning more into a backdoor variety, then potentially being reinforced by new wind energy at 140 kts falling from the Northern Gulf on Wed (12/22) also remaining off the coast into Thurs (12/23). Back to the west then pattern is to remain with 180 kts winds pushing off Japan then splitting heavily on the dateline with the northern flow pushing up into the Bering Sea and then into the California trough while the southern branch dives southeast well west of Hawaii towards the equator. At this time it looks like another Atmospheric River (AR) scenario is possible for California starting Mon (12/20) continuing till maybe Christmas.

Surface Analysis
On Thursday (12/16) swell from a gale previously in the Northern Gulf was fading along the US West Coast (See Northeast Gulf Gale below). Also small swell from a gale off Japan was radiating east towards the Islands (See Japan Gale below). Also swell from a gale that developed off the Pacific Northwest was radiating towards North California (See Pacific Northwest Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours a small gale is forecast developing on the dateline on Thurs PM (12/16) producing 45+ kt northwest winds over a tiny area aimed southeast with seas 26 ft at 37N 173E. On Fri AM (12/17) northwest winds to hold at 45 kts with seas 26 ft seas at 36N 179E aimed southeast. Fetch fading in the evening at 35 kts from the north with seas fading from 23 ft at 33N 180W. Maybe some small swell to result for Hawaii.

 

Northeast Gulf Gale
A gale developed in the Northwestern Gulf on Fri AM (12/10) with northwest winds building from 35-40 kts and seas building from 24 ft at 51N 169W aimed southeast. In the evening a solid fetch of 35-40 kt northwest winds were streaming southeast from the Eastern Aleutians with seas building from 25 ft over a solid area at 48.5N 159.5W aimed southeast. On Sat AM (12/11) 40-45 kt northwest winds were streaming southeast over a building fetch with a broad area of 27-28 ft seas building at 49N 151.5W aimed southeast. The gale held in the afternoon with 35-45 kt northwest winds and 30 ft seas at 51N 145.5W aimed southeast. Fetch held unchanged Sun AM (12/12) with 40+ kt northwest winds in the North and Central Gulf with 29 ft seas falling southeast at 48.5N 148.5W aimed southeast. Fetch is to be holding in the evening at 35 kts solid from the north-northwest with seas 28 ft at 46N 145W aimed southeast. On Mon AM (10/13) the gale is to be falling south with northwest winds fading from 30-35 kts reaching down to a point off Monterey Bay with 27 ft seas at 40N 142W aimed southeast. In the evening 30 kts northwest winds are to be fading off the North and Central CA coast with 24 ft seas over a broad area roughly near 36.5N 138.5W aimed southeast. Fetch is to be gone on Tues AM (12/14) with seas from previous fetch 20 ft at 33N 133W aimed southeast or a bit off Point Conception. Something to monitor.

Swell likely for North, Central and Southern CA starting in the North on Mon (12/13).

North CA: Residuals on Thurs (12/16) fading from 8.1 ft @ 11-12 secs (9.0 ft). Swell Direction: 295 degrees moving to 280 degrees

Southern CA: Swell fading on Thurs (12/16) from 2.1 ft @ 12 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 305 moving to 296 degrees

 

Japan Gale
A gale developed off Japan on Mon AM (12/13) producing west winds at 40+ kts starting to get traction on the oceans surface with seas building from 25 ft at 40N 151E aimed east. In the evening 40-45 kt west winds were tracking off the coast with seas 29-30 ft at 42N 159E aimed east. On Tues AM (12/14) 35 kt west winds were positioned half way to the dateline lifting north generating 26 ft seas at 41.5N 166.5E aimed east. In the evening fetch is to be fading from 30-35 kts from the west still lifting north off Kamchatka and making no east headway with 26 ft seas fading at 48.5N 168.5E aimed east. Fetch fading out on Wed AM (12/15) with 24 ft seas fading just south of the Western Aleutians at 50N 172E aimed east. The gale is to be gone after that. Perhaps some swell for Hawaii and inconsistent energy radiating into California with luck.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival near sunset on Fri (12/17) building to 2.7 ft @ 16-17 secs (4.0-4.5 ft). Swell building on Sat (12/18) to 3.8 ft @ 14-15 secs mid-day (5.5 ft). Swell fading Sun (12/19) from 2.8 ft @ 13 secs early (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 315 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sun (12/19) building to 1.8 ft @ 16-17 secs later (3.0 ft) a very inconsistent. Swell holding on Mon (12/20) at 2.8 ft @ 14.15 secs (4.0 ft) with local windswell intermixed. Swell Direction: 296 degrees.

 

Pacific Northwest Gale
On Tues AM (12/14) a small fetch of northwest winds at 30-35 kts started building associated with a building small gale in the Northwestern Gulf falling southeast with seas building. In the evening 35-45 kt northwest winds were off Vancouver Island with seas building from 21 ft at 48N 143W aimed southeast. On Wed AM (12/15) 35-40 kt northwest winds were just off the Pacific Northwest with 25 ft seas at 47.5N 137W aimed southeast and barely in the NCal swell window (316 degs). In the evening fetch was fading from 30 kts with the gale just off South Oregon and seas 22 ft fading at 43N 132W aimed southeast. Possible modest and raw swell pushing into North CA on Thurs (12/16).

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (12/16) later building to 8.0 ft @ 13 secs (10.0 ft). Swell fading on Fri (12/17) from 5.9 ft @ 12-13 secs early (7.5 ft). Dribbles on Sat (12/18) fading from 3.4 ft @ 10 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 317 degrees

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest are forecast.

California Nearshore Forecast

• Fri (12/17) weak high pressure tries to develop off California with north winds 5-10 kts for North CA and 10 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon more of the same but winds north winds 10-15 kts for Central CA. No precip forecast.
• Sat (12/18) north winds are forecast at 5-10 kts early for all of North and Central CA. No change in the afternoon except for a front that is to move over Cape Mendocino with south winds building mostly near sunset at 15-20 kts. A light wind regime is to hold from Bodega Bay southward. No precip forecast.
• Sun (12/19) the front is to be sagging south approaching Pt Arena with south 15 kts and up to 30 kts over Cape Mendocino and 10 kts south of there to the Golden Gate with light winds to Pt Conception. In the afternoon south winds are forecast at 5 kts from Pt Conception northward building to 15 kts over Monterey Bay and 20 kts from Pt Reyes northward. Rain in the vicinity of Cape Mendocino through the day.
• Mon (12/20) south winds and a front are to be over North CA at 20 kts early with south winds 10-15 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon a broad low is to start building off North and Central CA with south winds 15 kts from Pt Conception northward building to 30 kts from Santa Cruz north to Cape Mendocino. Rain building along the North CA coast early and lighter for Central CA early. Rain solid for Bodega Bay northward in the afternoon moving south to Pt Reyes overnight. .
• Tues (12/21) the front is to push inland with south winds 5-10 kts for North CA and south 30 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon another low is to be off Oregon with south winds 15-20 kts for most of North CA and mixed light winds for Central CA except south at 15 kts for Pt Conception. Heavy rain for all of North CA early building over Central CA mid-AM down into Santa Barbara County late afternoon. Snow developing over the Sierra mid-morning getting heavy in the afternoon then backing off in the evening. .
• Wed (12/22) south winds continue at 15 kts for Pt Reyes northward with light south winds down to Big Sur. South winds build in the afternoon at 30 kts for Cape Mendocino and 15-20 kts from Monterey Bay northward. South winds 5 kts to Pt Conception. Rain for all of North CA early and holding all day building south to Monterey Bay but light for Central CA. Light rain for Southern CA all day. Steady snow for mainly the Tahoe region during the day.
• Thurs (12/23) morning the front is to be fully engulfing North and Central CA with south winds 30-35 kts from San Francisco northward. In the afternoon thing to improve over north CA with south winds 15 kts and the font over the SF Bay area with south winds 25 kts and 10 kts from Pt Conception to Big Sur. Light rain for North CA early building to heavy status for Cape mendocino later. No snow for the Sierra.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 98, 119, 105, and 69 inches with 1-2 ft on 12/21-12/22 then multiple feet starting 12/24 and beyond.

Freezing level building to 9,000 ft 12/17-12/18, only to fall back to 7.000 ft on 12/19 then down to 4.000-5,000 ft 12/21 and holding there. Winter has begun.

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Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level (more here - scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!

 

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell producing fetch has occurred of is forecast.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours a gale is forecast developing off Washington on Sun AM (12/19) producing 30-35 kt northwest winds and seas building from 16 ft at 41N 143W aimed southeast. Fetch to hold at 30 kts from the north in the evening with 17 ft seas at 38N 142W aimed south. On Mon AM (12/20) north winds are to be fading from 25 kts with seas fading from 15 ft at 36N 140W aimed south. Something to monitor.

Perhaps another gale is to form off Japan on Tues AM (12/21) producing 45 kt west winds with seas 27 ft at 43N 165E aimed east. The gale is to lift north fast in the evening producing 35 kt west winds with seas 34 ft at 44N 170E aimed east. On Wed AM (12/22) the gale is to rebuild just south of the far Western Aleutians with 50 kt west winds and seas 30 ft at 50N 170E. After that the gale is to move into the Bering Sea.

And yet another gael is forecast for the Northern Gulf on Wed AM (12/22) producing an elongated fetch of 35 kts north winds and seas building from 27 ft at 53N 145W aimed south. In the evening the gale is to be winding up off Cape Mendocino with 35 kt northwest winds and seas 23 ft over a broad area at 41N 142W aimed southeast. Fetch is to hold Thurs AM (12/23) at 35 kts with seas 24 ft off San Francisco at 40N 138W aimed southeast. More of the same in the evening. Something to monitor.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

La Nina Stable As Cold Sub-Surface Pool Discharges - Active MJO Building
Summary - Cool subsurface water volume peaked under the equatorial Pacific on 10/15/21, beating last years volume, and now is discharging to the surface while fading and easing east. A stronger than expected Active Phase of the MJO is producing west anomalies forecast to take over the Western KWGA as previously forecast and filling 75% of the KWGA with the low pressure bias slowly building in from the west in earnest late Dec and filling the KWGA by mid-Feb with a return to a more regular cadence of Active and Inactive MJO phases starting now. With the cold subsurface pool discharging to the surface in the East Pacific, and a return of the MJO projected, it seems the the peak of this years La Nina event is already behind us. But the atmosphere will be slow to respond.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST

Fall /Winter 2021-2022 = 3.0 (California & Hawaii) Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But La Nina is making a strong return as we move into the end of Sept much like what the CFS model suggested would happen. So at this point we are speculating that the CFS model will verify and that a full double dip La Nina pattern will take hold as we move into November with this second La Nina dip being nearly as strong as the previous one. But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late Fall (Nov) with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern at that time and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Dec. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter. But by later in Jan 2022 perhaps a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. As a result a somewhat reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct-Dec, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by later Winter (2022), the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The status of the PDO is not known, though it appears to be returning to at least a neutral state, rather than the warm phase as previously projected thereby having no significant positive or negative effect on the long term outlook.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (12/15) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. Anomalies were light east over the East equatorial Pacific and moderate east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (12/16) west anomalies were modest over the far West KWGA but moderate easterly over the bulk of the KWGA reaching east to a point south of California. The forecast calls for moderate east anomalies slowly fading and gone by 12/19 with west anomalies trying to build in and slowly filling the entire KWGA by 12/21 and holding through the end of the model run on 12/23 at modest strength. This is a solid step in the right direction and the first in a very long time.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:  
OLR Models: (12/15) A moderate Active MJO signal was filling the KWGA today. The statistical model suggests the Active Phase is hold strength if not build steadily while moving very slowly east through day 15 of the model run and still barely over the dateline but starting to move more over the Central Pacific. The dynamic model projects the same as the statistical model but not moving east as fast, still well centered over the dateline on day 15 of the model run.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (12/16) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was modest over the West Pacific and is forecast tracking over Africa at day 15 of the model run and modest. The dynamic model suggests the Active Phase moving to the East Pacific and holding at moderate strength on day 15 of the model run. It's been a long time since we've seen this.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (12/16) A moderate Active MJO signal (wet air) was over the Central Pacific today. The forecast indicates it is to track east pushing fully into the Central Pacific on 12/21 and into Central America 1/5. The Inactive Phase (dry air) is to start developing over the West Pacific on 12/31 and weak moving to the East Pacific at the end of the model run on 1/25. A new Active Phase (wet air) is forecast starting to build over the far West Pacific on 1/20 moving east from there.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (12/15) This model depicts the Active Phase was solid over the Central KWGA today filling 85% of it with moderate to strong west anomalies. The forecast indicates the Active MJO signal tracking through the KWGA and exiting east of it on on 1/8 positioned just west of the dateline. West anomalies in it are to fade from moderate to strong status on 12/16-12/18 then rebuilding over the dateline after that to near strong status 12/21-12/31 then pushing east through early Jan. East anomalies are to redevelop in the West KWGA on 12/29 with the Inactive Phase developing on 1/5 pushing east and building in coverage but not strength filling the KWGA at the end of the model run on 1/12.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (12/16 - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day): Today the Active Phase of the MJO was filling the KWGA with moderate west anomalies filling the western 75% of the KWGA. The forecast indicates the Active MJO is to be moving over the KWGA through 1/5 with west anomalies filling the KWGA during that window other than a break 12/17-12/19. The Inactive Phase is to follow 12/20-2/9 but not particularly strong with weak east anomalies building over the KWGA peaking on the dateline on 1/25. A modest Active Phase is to develop on 1/19 pushing east through the KWGA through the end of the model run on 3/15 with modest west anomalies during that window. An Inactive Phase is to follow starting 3/3 through the end of the model run. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias with 2 contour lines was centered over the dateline and is to hold till 1/9, then easing east. A broad single contour low pressure bias is now established centered over the Maritime Continent at 100E with it's leading edge at 125E and barely in the KWGA and is forecast starting to move east further into the KWGA to 150E on 1/15 filling 50% of the KWGA and building further east at the end of the model run. Today a solid east anomaly pattern that has been in control of KWGA since early July is being significantly challenged by west anomalies from a building Active Phase of the MJO. A return to a more normal MJO alternating pattern is forecast moving forward. This could signal the demise of La Nina as we get deeper into Winter. That said, there is only one more Active MJO forecast for this winter, in the late-Jan to early March timeframe.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (12/16) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was back at 161E. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 179E. The 24 deg isotherm was steady at 122W. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +3 deg C were building with their leading edge at about 160W. All sensors are down at 140W. Cool anomalies were fading from -1 to -2 degs C down 150 meters at 150W and tracking east while rising near the surface near 95W. No Kelvin Waves were obvious and cool water was in control in the east at depth but definitely less of a force than weeks and months past. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 12/9 indicates no warm water east of 170W at depth with a bubble of cold water at -3C below normal east of there (where the sensors are inoperable) extending upward to the surface off Ecuador but with noticeably less intensity than weeks past and definitely losing ground. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (12/9) Sea heights were negative over the East equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to 175W at -5 to -10 cms with only a small pocket of -15 cms anomalies at 90W and 145W. No -20 or -25 cms anomalies exist. -10 cms anomalies cover a broad area between 85W to 155W. All positive anomalies were limited from 170E and points west of there at 20 to 25 cms. A warm water 'horseshoe' pattern is well developed in the West Pacific. La Nina made a return and stronger than last year, but now appears to be in decline, at least from the subsurface water temp perspective. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram La Nina subsurface cold temperatures peaked in coverage in mid-Oct, far broader than last year (-2.5 degs C), but as of 12/9 that coverage is collapsing centered at 100W with the coolest anomalies (-2.5 degs) gone and -1.5 deg anomalies shrinking fast from the west and east bordered between 109W and 92W. It appears a cold water Kelvin Wave (upwelling Kelvin Wave) is erupting just west of the Galapagos.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (12/15) The latest images depict a broad stream of cool water on the equator dominant from Chile up to Peru then turning west and peaking from the Galapagos east to 110W then weaker but still solid west of there to at least the dateline. A classic La Nina pattern was evident. But a pocket of warming water was depicted at 130W. An area of warm water just north of the equator was fading from Ecuador west to 140W and up along Central America into Southern Baja. Overall this indicates the return of cold water temps in the Central Equatorial Pacific indicative of La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (12/15): Temps were warming along Chile and Peru and building compared to days past and warming in pockets strung between the Galapagos to 150W. A few small pockets of cooling were interspersed. A cold water Kelvin Wave is erupting at the surface in the East equatorial Pacific resulting from the discharge of subsurface water below it.
Hi-res Overview: (12/15) No real change - A broad stream of cooler than normal water was aligned on the equator from Ecuador to 110W then weaker but still solid out to 160E. Cooler than normal waters were also south of that line down to 20S. Warmer than normal waters were limited to a line north of the equator up to Mexico and along the US Coast up to Pt Conception. A previous cool outflow from South California southwest to the a point over Hawaii's Big Island was gone. La Nina is solid but not building anymore focused over the equatorial Central Pacific.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (12/16) Today's temps were warming slightly at -1.673 after falling to a new low of -1.761 on 12/14, after rising to -1.432 on 11/29 and that after dropping on 11/24 at -1.700, the lowest in months after previously toggling steady at about -0.6 degs from mid Aug to Oct 6, then falling from there. Before that temps were toggling around neutral 6/13-8/5 except for one dip to -0.411 on 7/8. Prior to that temps peaked on 3/16 when they briefly hit +0.714 degs. Last year temps bottomed out at -2.138 on 8/13/20. The longterm trend has been steadily downward.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (12/16) Today temps were creeping down at -0.942 after rising to -0.685 on 11/9, and that after bottoming out at -1.08 on 11/2, the lowest in a year. Prior to that temps had been in a freefall starting from the -0.175 range in early Sept. Before that temps peaked up at 7/1 +0.332, the highest in a year. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3/2020.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (12/14) - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June then fading to -0.3 degs through Aug and to -0.75 degs in mid Oct and -1.0 degs in mid-Nov. The forecast indicates temps to continue a steady fall from here forward dropping down to -1.40 in mid Jan 2022 then quickly pushing up to +0.00 degs in July 2022. This model suggests a return of La Nina conditions and strongly so this Fall and Winter. There is no indication that El Nino will develop. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests the same with temps falling to -1.40 degs in mid-Jan starting to rise slowly after mid-Jan 2022. At this point that is as good a guess as any. And the model has been unwavering in this projection for months now.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Nov 20, 2021 Plume depicts temps are at -1.019 degs today, and are to warm to -0.57 degrees in Feb, then rising to -0.00 degs in May and neutral after that. A solid return of La Nina is expected peaking about now then warming thereafter.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator):
Today (12/16) the daily index was positive at +17.23. The trend has been towards positive readings with previous notable peaks were at +30.98 on 11/26, +36.90 on 9/28, +27.75 on 9/13 and +37.86 on 7/15.
The 30 day average was rising at +13.11 after previously falling to +6.06 on 11/6 after peaking at +11.58 on 10/22. Before that it fell to -3.36 on 6/22, the lowest in a year. It peaked at +19.51 on 1/14.
The 90 day average was rising some at +10.11 today after peaking at 10.22 on 12/10, falling to +7.10 on 11/1. It previously peaking on 9/21 at +9.80 after falling to it's lowest point in a year on 6/9 at +1.06. The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 on 2/23 (clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggest La Nina is returning.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative every since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'). If anything it appears more likely we are still in the cool phase of the PDO.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

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Powerlines

Jeff Clark

Inside Mavericks

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table