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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Tuesday, December 24, 2019 12:14 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
3.5 - California & 3.1 - Hawaii
Using the 'Winter' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 12/23 thru Sun 12/29

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

N. Gulf Swell Pushing SE
A Far More Active Storm Pattern Forecast

BUOY ROUNDUP
On Tuesday, December 24, 2019 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai)/Barbers Point (Buoy 238) : Seas were 3.9 ft @ 7.1 secs with swell 2.8 ft @ 8.0 secs from 171 degrees.
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 5.1 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 3.7 ft @ 8.6 secs from 42 degrees.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.7 ft @ 12.0 secs with swell 2.1 ft @ 11.6 secs from 274 degrees. Wind at the buoy was north at 4 kts. Water temperature 59.2 degs. At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 6.2 ft @ 12.4 secs from 293 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 2.1 ft @ 9.6 secs from 256 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.7 ft @ 13.0 secs from 265 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 3.1 ft @ 12.2 secs from 274 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 9.0 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 5.5 ft @ 12.1 secs from 301 degrees. Wind at the buoy (012) was northwest at 12-18 kts. Water temp 54.5 degs (013), 56.7 degs (012) and 56.3 degs (042).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Tuesday (12/24) in North and Central CA waves were head high to 1 ft overhead and soft and crumbled but with some underlying lines and with light onshore winds. Protected breaks were chest high and and somewhat lined up but broken up by local onshore light wind and lumpy early. At Santa Cruz surf was head high or so and line dup and clean but a bit uneven by underlying lump and high tide. In Southern California/Ventura waves were chest high and lined up and soft but clean. In North Orange Co surf was waist high and weak breaking just off the beach due to high tide but clean. South Orange Country's best summertime breaks were maybe waist high and lined up and clean but weak and very inconsistent. North San Diego had waves at waist high on the sets and a bit jumbled but clean and somewhat lined up but soft. Tops spots were chest to shoulder high. Hawaii's North Shore was weak with sets maybe shoulder high and soft but clean. The South Shore was flat and chopped with white caps. The East Shore was getting east windswell with waves head high or so and chopped from brisk southeast winds.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (12/24) in California background weak swell was hitting from no worthy source producing rideable waves but nothing more. Hawaii was in the same situation. The good news is a storm started developing on the North Dateline region moving into the Northwestern Gulf on Sat-Mon (12/23) with up to 38 ft seas aimed east then rebuilt in the Gulf Mon-Tues (12/24) with up to 34 ft seas aimed southeast. Swell is in the water pushing mainly towards the mainland. Yet another storm is to follow tracking over the Northern Gulf Wed-Thurs (12/26) producing 41 ft seas aimed east. And another gale is to form at the same time off the Kuril Islands producing 32 ft seas aimed southeast initially then fading and redeveloping on the dateline Fri (12/27) producing a small area of 35 ft seas aimed east. Of more interest is a strong storm forecast developing well to the south off Japan on Fri-Sat (12/28) with 54 ft seas lifting gently northeast crossing the dateline on Sun (12/29) with 51 ft seas fading through the day. Something to possibly look forward too.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Tuesday (12/24) the jetstream was consolidated pushing east off Japan with winds 150 kts with a weak trough trying to organize north of it off the Kuril Islands. The jet proceeded east splitting on the dateline with the northern branch reaching up to almost the Eastern Aleutians only to regroup in the Central Gulf with a steep trough developing there being fed by 130 kts winds in it's apex offering some support for low pressure development and poised to move over North California shortly. Over the next 72 hours the Gulf trough is to steadily track east being fed by 110-120 kt winds while getting steeper providing continued support for low pressure development moving over North and Central CA Wed-Thurs (12/26) mostly providing the opportunity for weather. Back to the west wind in the jet are to hold at 140 kts pushing solidly east to the Dateline and far Western Gulf of Alaska into Fri (12/27) forming a solid trough pushing over the North Dateline Region and into the Northwestern Gulf offering great opportunity to support gale development there. Beyond 72 hours the Gulf trough is to push east into British Columbia on Sun (12/29) continuing to support gale development tracking inland there. But of more interest back to the west winds are to start building while pushing off Japan at 180-190 kts on Fri (12/27) with a new trough forming and filling the entire Northwestern Pacific by Sun (12/29) offering great support for gale development with additional winds filling into the that trough on Mon (12/30) on the dateline at 180 kts continuing to fuel storm development. From there on Mon (12/30) the jet is to lift northeast with a ridge over the Gulf of Alaska and a backdoor trough pushing down the California coast likely only producing weather. By Tues (12/31) the trough is to be just east of the dateline and fading some but not gone while a ridge builds over the Eastern Gulf. The jet is to be fully consolidated over the width of the North Pacific.


Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (12/24) swell from a gale over the North Dateline region and moving into the Northern Gulf was in the water pushing southeast (see North Dateline Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours a gale was tracking well off North Japan on Mon AM (12/23) producing 35-40 kt westerly winds while lifting northeast. In the evening west winds were 35-40 kts over a modest area with seas 26 ft at 44N 177E aimed east. The gale raced northeast over the dateline on Tues AM (12/24) producing 35 kt west winds and seas 26 ft at 45N 178W aimed east. In the evening the gale is to start building while moving to the Northwestern Gulf with 45 kt west winds and seas 34 ft at 49.5N 170.5W. On Wed AM (12/25) the gale is to build to storm status with 50 kt west winds in the Northern Gulf with 42 ft seas building at 50.5N 163W aimed east. In the evening 45 kt northwest winds are to be in the Northern Gulf with 39-40 ft seas at 51.5N 153.5W aimed east. The gale is to lift northeast on Thurs AM (12/26) with 35 kt west winds and 34 ft seas fading at 53N 144W aimed east and east of the North CA swell window. Something to monitor.

Also a small gale is to develop just off the northern Kuril ISlands on Wed AM (12/25) with 45 kt north west winds over a small area and seas building to 28 ft at 48N 161E aimed southeast. In the evening fetch is to fall southeast slightly with 40-45 kts northwest winds and seas 30 ft over a small area at 47.5N 163E aimed southeast. the gale is to fade some Thurs AM (12/26) with 40 kt northwest winds and seas fading from 28 ft at 47N 162E aimed southeast. But a new fetch of 45 kt west winds is to be building east of it over the dateline with 27 ft seas at 45N 176E aimed southeast. the new fetch is to take over in the evening with 45 kt northwest winds over a modest sized area and seas building from 36 ft over a small area at 46N 178W aimed southeast. Fetch is to be fading on Fri AM (12/27) with 45 kt west winds and seas 36 ft at 45N 175W aimed east. Fetch fading from 35-40 kts in the evening with seas fading from 32 ft at 44N 169W aimed east. Something to monitor.

 

North Dateline Gale
A gale started to develop over the Dateline Sat AM (12/21) producing northwest and west winds at 45 kts starting to get traction and producing 28-34 ft seas over a tiny area at 46N 177E aimed east with the gale lifting northeast fast. In the evening the gale was repositioned over the North Dateline region producing a broad area of 40-45 kt northwest winds with seas building from 30-33 ft over a small area at 45N 180W aimed east. On Sun AM (12/22) west winds were 45 kts over a shrinking area south of the Central Aleutians with most fetch north of there in the Bering Sea at up to 55 kts with 37 ft seas at 50.5N 176.5W aimed east just south of the Aleutians. In the evening the gale was moving fully into the Bering Sea with 40 kt west winds barely holding south of the Aleutians and seas 38 ft at 53N 170W aimed east. Secondary fetch was building lifting northeast from the North Dateline Region with 45 kt west winds and seas building. On Mon AM (12/23) 35-40 kt west winds from the secondary fetch were building in coverage while moving in the the Northwestern Gulf with 33 ft seas at 51N 160W aimed east. Fetch held in the evening at 40 to barely 45 kts from the west with 35 ft seas at 48N 156.5W aimed east to southeast. The gale was fading on Tues AM (12/24) in the Northern Gulf with 30-35 kt northwest winds and seas fading from 33 ft at 49N 147.5W aimed southeast. The gale to dissipate from there. Swell is in the water targeting mainly the US West Coast.

Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Wed (12/25) building to 2.4 ft @ 16 secs (3.5 ft) mid-day. Additional energy to arrive on Thurs (12/26) with swell 2.7 ft @ 14 secs (3.5 ft) mid-day. Swell DIrection: 325 moving to 335 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Wed (12/25) with swell building to 5.2 ft @ 17 secs late (8.5 ft) and shadowed in the SF Bay Area. Swell to be peaking on Thurs (12/26) mixing with windswell from local winds just off the coast at 8.0-8.5 ft @ 16 sec (12.5-14.0 ft) and shadowed in the SF Bay Area. Swell fading on Fri (12/27) from 7.3 ft @ 14 secs (10 ft) and still shadowed in SF. Swell Direction: 308 degrees

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored.

California Nearshore Forecast
On Tues (12/24) weak local low pressure is to be pushing onshore over Baja with high pressure just northeast of Hawaii producing northwest winds 10 kts nearshore for North and Central CA and up to 15-20 kts over Pt Conception and Southern CA later. Light rain only for Southern CA early. Wed AM (12/25) a new local low is to set up off Central CA falling southeast with southeast winds forecast at 10-15 kts for North and Central CA early turning east 10-15 kts later and southwest winds building for Southern CA at 20 kts in the evening. Rain for the North and Central CA coast becoming focused on Central CA later afternoon. No snow forecast. Thurs (12/26) the low is to be just off Pt Conception with a light northeast flow for North and Central CA turning north later in the day at 15 kts. Rain for mainly Southern CA all day and heavy at times. Fri (12/27) north winds are forecast for North and Central CA at 10 kts. No precipitation forecast. Sat (12/28) a light north flow is forecast at 10 kts all day for North and Central CA. Sun (12/29) local low pressure is to be moving onshore over Oregon with high pressure off CA producing north winds 10 kts early building to 15-20 kts later. Light rain for Cape Mendocino later. Mon (12/30) high pressure is to build in with north winds 25 kts for North and Central CA early turning northeast 5-10 kts later. No rain forecast. On Tues (12/31) a light northeast flow is forecast for North and Central CA but up to 25 kts for Cape Mendocino.

Total snow accumulation for the week for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 0, 0, 0 and 1 inches respectively.

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!

 

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell producing fetch is occurring.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours possible Storm #2 is forecast building just off Japan on Fri AM (12/27) with 50 kt west winds and seas building. In the evening 55-60 kt northwest winds are to be tracking east mid-way to the dateline with 45 ft seas building at 35N 159.5E aimed east. On Sat AM (12/28) a broad area of 55 kt northwest and west winds are to be approaching the dateline with 55 ft seas at 34.5N 169.5E aimed east. In the evening the storm is to be moving over the dateline with 50 kt west winds and seas 55 ft at 36.5N 177.5E aimed east. The gale is to stall some over the dateline Sun AM (12/29) with 45 kt west winds and seas fading from 49 ft at 38.5W 176W aimed east. The gale is to be fading in the evening with 30-35 kt west winds covering the dateline region and seas fading from 41 ft at 42N 171.5W aimed east. The gael is to dissipate from there. Possible large, long period swell to result. Something to monitor.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

 

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

Strong West Anomalies in KWGA

The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).

Overview: A double dip La Nina was in control through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then rebuilt late in Feb associated with Kelvin Wave (#3). But as of early June 2019 warm water was fading and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. El Nino was dead.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall/Winter 2019/2020 = 5.0/4.0 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It is assumed the PDO has moved to the warm phase and that a weak borderline El Nino from 2018 is fading out, but not yet completely gone, especially in the atmosphere. Likewise it looks like a La Nina ocean temperature pattern is developing in the equatorial East Pacific, with cooler than normal waters tracking west on the equator. We assumed El Nino like momentum will hold for a while in the atmosphere will take a while to sense that the ocean temperature pattern has changed. But once it does, a turn towards a La Nina like atmospheric pattern will start to develop. that transition is expected in the late Nov-early Dec timeframe. Even so, moderation from the PDO might prevent La Nina from fully developing. Given all that, there is decent probability for a normal start to the Fall surf season (in the Northern Hemisphere) meaning a normal amount of number of storm days and storm intensity, resulting in a normal levels of swell, with normal duration and normal period. But by mid-Dec 2019, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start fading and as a result, swell production should fade slightly as well. This pattern is expected to hold through April 2020.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (12/23) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific fading to moderate from the east over the Central Pacific fading on the dateline then turning hard west in the Southern KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the far East equatorial Pacific continuing over the Central Pacific turning hard west over the dateline and the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (12/24) strong west anomalies were filling the KWGA today. The forecast continues to call for west anomalies holding strong through 12/26, then fading but still holding coverage till then end off the model run on 12/31.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: (12/23) A modest Active MJO signal was over the far West Pacific. The statistic model indicates the Active Phase is to push east moving to the dateline at day 10 then getting strong on the dateline at day 15. The dynamic model indicates the same thing initially but with the Active Phase building to moderate status at day 10 on the dateline ( in the KWGA0 then gone at day 15 with a modest Inactive MJO building over the KWGA.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (12/24) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was weak over the far West Pacific today and is to move to the Central Pacific and very weak at day 15. The GEFS model suggests the same thing but with the Active Phase moving to the Central Pacific 7 days out then backtracking to the Maritime Continent at day 15.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model): (12/24) This model depicts a strong Active MJO filling the West Pacific today. The Active Phase is to push east to the East Pacific and over Central America on 1/13. A moderate Inactive MJO signal is forecast setting up over the West Pacific on 1/3 pushing to the East Pacific and Central America at the end of the model run on 2/2. A weak Active Phase is to start setting up over the far west KWGA on 1/18 pushing to the Central Pacific at the end of the model run.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (12/19) This model depicts a weak Active Phase over the Indian Ocean pushing east with moderate west anomalies filling the KWGA today. Weak west anomalies are to hold in the KWGA through the end of the model run on 1/16. A pocket of east anomalies is to start developing in the far west KWGA on 1/7 pushing east an getting some traction in the West KWGA at the end of the model run on 1/16.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (12/24) This model depicts the Inactive Phase of the MJO was very weak over the KWGA but with moderate west anomalies over the KWGA. Westerly wind anomalies are to fade on 1/1 replaced with weak east until the Inactive Phase fades out on 1/15. A weak version on the Active Phase is to develop tracking east through the KWGA 1/11 holding through 2/18 with weak to modest west anomalies holding through that period. A weak Inactive phase is to set up 2/19-3/5 with weak east anomalies developing in that window. The Active Phase is to return 3/6 through the end of the model run on 3/22 with weak west anomalies redeveloping. The low pass filter indicates a low pressure bias with 2 contour lines in control of the KWGA centered on the dateline reaching east to the California coast. The second contour line is to hold till 3/5, then collapse. A high pressure bias built in the Indian Ocean starting 10/22 and is to hold through the end of the model run through getting a little weaker at the end of the run. A strong area of east anomalies in the Indian Ocean is forecast to significantly weaken by 2/26 and appears to try and then make slow progress to the east tracking into the west KWGA later in Feb.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (12/24) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 deg isotherm was steady at 175E while the 29 deg isotherm was steady at 172W today. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 163W today. The 24 deg isotherm was backtracking to 115W today after previously pushing east into Ecuador. Anomaly wise, gentle warm anomalies are filling the entire Pacific with a pocket at 2-3 degs building from the Maritime Continent moving east with it's leading edge at 135W indicative of new Kevin Wave #6 pushing east. A smaller area of warm water at +1 degs was all but gone while pushing into Ecuador indicative of Kelvin Wave #5 mostly inland now. Warm water was filling the entire equatorial subsurface Pacific from 110 meters upwards. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 12/19 indicates warm water had formed a Kelvin Wave extending from 120E under the Dateline east to 135W at +2-3 degrees with lesser warm water pushing east from there then rebuilding to +2-4 degrees and impacting Ecuador. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (12/19) A building pocket of +5 cms anomalies is tracking east between 155E-135W. Negative anomalies were gone along Peru and being replaced by very weak positive anomalies in pockets.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (12/23) The latest images ( 1.2 3.4) indicate weak warm anomalies were building from North Chile along Peru up to Ecuador then streaming west on the equator over the Galapagos out to the dateline. Weak cool anomalies were south of the equator off Peru starting at 10S reaching west to 110W. Weak warm anomalies were on and north of the equator building while tracking west to the dateline.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (12/23): Today a building area of warming was filling the entire area from Chile and Peru steaming west out to 100W and also off Ecuador on the equator out to 140W. A few pockets of cooling were interspersed along the equator from Ecuador to 140W and steady. The short term trend is now towards warming in the Southeast Pacific. This is a step in the right direction.
Hi-res Overview: (12/23) A weak fading area of cool anomalies is trying to hold on south of the equator off Peru reaching out to 120W but further south than weeks past. Otherwise gentle warming was along Peru lifting north up to Ecuador then pushing west on the equator, out to the dateline. Warmer than normal water was north of the equator from the remnants of El Nino, but mostly gone south of the equator. Water temps appear to be stable mildly favoring El Nino.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (12/24) Today's temps were falling some at -0.263 after bottoming out down at -0.900 on 12/12. Temps peaked prior at +1.55 degrees on 12/2 after a long runup from negative anomalies in October. It now appears we are in a falling trend.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(12/24) Temps were holding steady today at +0.174. Temps peaked on 11/14 at +0.509 degs, fell some to -0.018 on 11/28, and are now trying to rebuild. The trend has been steadily generally upwards since Sept when they bottomed out at -0.6 degs (9/14).

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (12/20) Actual's indicate a cooling trend set up late summer with temps -0.2 degs in mid-Sept then then trend started rising to +0.25 degs in early Oct holding to Dec 1. The forecast has temps holding in the +0.2-+0.4 degree range into May, then fading steadily to -0.0 in early Sept. According to this model a neutral sea surface temperature pattern biased slightly warm is forecast for the foreseeable future.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Oct 2019 Plume depicts temps are at +0.25 degs, and are to hold in the +0.25 deg range into May 2020, then fading slightly to +0.15 in June 2020. See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad) (12/24): The daily index was negative today at -21.64 and has been negative the last 13 days. The 30 day average was negative and falling at -5.33. The 90 day average was falling at -6.12, suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern was developing.
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): Oct +0.33 Sept +1.13, August +0.64, July +0.75, June -0.32, May +1.10, April +0.30, March +1.0, Feb +1.29, Jan +0.193. This index has been steadily positive but still indicates mostly ENSO neutral conditions (not El Nino).

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Per NOAAs index recent values: June 2017 +0.21, July -0.50, Aug -0.62, Sept -0.25, Oct -0.61, Nov -0.45, Dec -0.13, Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan -0.23, Feb -0.55 This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO, even with La Nina, because the warm PDO appears to be dampening the effects of La Nina. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): June 2017 +0.79, July +0.10, Aug +0.09, Sept +0.32, Oct +0.05, Nov +0.15, Dec +0.50, Jan +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

****

External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave


Powerlinessurf Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest

Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for the week starting Sunday (12/15):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BhUhQ3fg1b8&feature=youtu.be&hd=1
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

- - -

NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Stormsurf and Mavericks on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Mavericks Invitational Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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