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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: July 7, 2009 8:09 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
Swell Potential Rating = 2.5 - California & 1.5 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)
Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    
Issued for Week of Monday 7/6 thru Sun 7/12
Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Small Southern Hemi Gale Forecast
Otherwise the Outlook Continues Rather Placid

 

New Swell Classification Guidelines (Winter)

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead). Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft) Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft). Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs. Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
On Tuesday (7/7) North and Central California had waist to chest high southern hemi swell showing at south facing breaks with building northwest winds adding a fair amount of texture even early. Southern California had thigh high southern hemi southwest swell up north but there were chest high sets down south and even a few bigger peaks at the top spots.  Wind was building in the early afternoon adding some moderate texture. Hawaii's North Shore was flat. The East Shore had mostly less than knee high easterly windswell and onshore winds. The South Shore still had some leftover waist high southern hemi swell occasionally coming through, though mainly smaller than that. Conditions were clean. 

The forecast for North and Central CA is for 3 more days of small background southern hemi swell pushing in through Friday (7/10) and turning more from a southerly direction.  This originated from a gale that was under Tahiti last week.  But short period north windswell is to be moving into the area on Wed (7/8) in the waist to maybe chest high range. Southern CA is to see continued southern hemi background swell too originating from that same gale that was under Tahiti through Friday (7/10) and turning more southerly as the week progresses, then fading out. Maybe some thigh high northwest short period windswell to be in the mix up north (SB County) by Thurs. Oahu's North Shore is asleep for the summer with no rideable surf forecast.  The East Shore to start seeing some minimal east tradewind generated windswell by Wednesday (7/8) at waist high or so and holding through the weekend. The South Shore is not expected to see any southern hemi swell for the next 6 days.

Longterm the South Pacific remains forecast to produce a small gale under Tahiti on Wed (7/8) generating a tiny area of up to 32-35 ft seas pushing towards both Hawaii and California, but a bit shadowed by Tahiti for the mainland. Limited small background swell is possible a week out for Hawaii and 8 days out for California. A broader area of disturbed weather is depicted southeast of New Zealand starting Tues (7/14) generating maybe 28 ft seas, but that remains only a guess by the models. So we remain is a real quiet pattern for now, in the heart of summer.  One can hope for something more, but don't  expect it.  

 

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
At the surface today  high pressure was starting to build 800 nmiles west of Cape Mendocino and ridging into the California coast with north winds building to 20 kts over Northern CA. This high was also generating modest trades at 15 kts pushing into the Eastern Shores of the Hawaiian Islands, but windswell was not yet being realized. Over the next 72 hours high pressure is to hold mid-way between CA and Hawaii at 1024-1028 mbs setting up a weak pressure gradient over Central CA and producing north winds at 20 kts with very short period north windswell north of Pt Conception starting Wed (7/8) and continuing into the weekend. Trades are also to be building over the Hawaiian Islands by Wed at 20 kts with east windswell starting to build, but period still very short. No other swell producing fetch is forecast.

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

California Nearshore Forecast
On Tuesday (7/7) high pressure at 1030 mbs was located 850 nmiles west of Central CA ridging into the coast and producing 20-25 kt north winds off Pt Arena and generating small short period north windswell pushing south. Lesser winds in the 15 kt range extending south to Pt Conception and over the Channel Islands. By Wednesday (7/8) this fetch is to fall south some, centered off Monterey Bay and holding at 20 kts generating more weak short period north windswell and locally chopped conditions. This pattern is to hold into Thursday, then weaken some but still winds are to be 15-20 kts, regenerating to the 20 kts range by Sunday (7/12). reinforcing high pressure is to build off the coast early next week with north winds reaching 25 kts on Monday off Pt Arena and 30 kts early Tuesday (7/14) off Cape Mendo, with nearshore winds south of Pt Reyes fading.  Larger windswell and improved conditions from San Francisco southward to Pt Conception possible.    

Tropics
Tropical storm Blanca was located 480 nmiles west southwest of Cabo San Lucas Mexico with sustained winds of 40 kts and fading. Winds never exceeded 45 kts with this system and no swell is expected to result for CA. 

No other tropical system are occurring.

 

South Pacific

Overview
On Saturday (7/4) the South Pacific jetstream remained split with the southern branch pushing well to the south of even the Ross Ice Shelf from south of New Zealand to nearly Chile and  hindering the development of low pressure in the South Pacific. A persistent cut-off low in the upper atmosphere east of New Zealand remains in place, perhaps offering a little bit of support for surface level low pressure development. The northern branch continued to have all the wind energy, with 190 kt winds flowing flat west to east under Tahiti and not supporting gale development. Over the next 72 hrs winds in the southern branch are to feed better up to the north and helping fuel the cutoff low south of Tahiti, actually looking decent by Fri (7/10), but it's till to be mostly cutoff. Beyond 72 hours finally the southern branch is to consolidate with a singular flow pushing northeast under New Zealand almost merging with the northern branch  on Tues (7/14) and possibly setting up a real trough there. Possible support for gale development in that area if this occurs. 

At the surface on Tuesday (7/7) no swell producing fetch of interest was occurring in the South Pacific. Over the next 72 hours a weak low pressure system is to try and organize well south of Tahiti on Wed (7/8) with 35-40 kt southwest winds forecast at 44S 155W aimed towards both CA (shadowed by Tahiti) and Hawaii and holding through the evening, then that fetch is to point to the east and southeast quickly, taking aim on Antarctica by Thurs PM. Seas of 35 ft are forecast Wed PM (7/8) at 40S 150W, but suspect that is on the high side. If this occurs some degree of decent utility class swell could be expected focusing on Tahiti and California, with sideband energy for Hawaii. 

 

Tahiti Gale
On Friday (6/26) through Sun (6/28) a weak gale developed east of New Zealand pushing to a point well south of Tahiti producing a small fetch of 40-45 kt southwest to west winds and seas at 28 ft near 45S 170W pushing to 35 ft at 45S 150W. Most of this energy was tracking towards South and Central America. Sideband swell energy did reach up into Hawaii for Thurs-Fri (7/3) and was starting to hit exposed south facing breaks in California on Sat (7/4). Varying degrees of background swell of mostly 2 ft @ 15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft faces) is expected for South and Central CA starting Sun (7/5) and continuing into late Thurs (7/9) from 205 degrees.

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours the usual high pressure system between Hawaii and California is to hold at 1024 mbs generating 20 kt north winds and short period north windswell for Central CA into early next week (7/14) and producing trades over the Hawaiian Islands at 15-20 kts resulting in short period east windswell there as well. the windswell should be rideable at both locations, but nothing more.  Interestingly, a broad low pressure system is forecast pushing east off the Kurils to the dateline and into the Gulf of Alaska by Sunday (7/12) generating 25-30 kt west winds all the while.  10 sec period small windswell might result.  But the fact that it is to occur in the middle of summer is of more interest.  Of course, this is just a projection, but interesting none-the-less.     

     

MJO/ENSO Update (reference): As of Tuesday (7/7) the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) was in the Inactive Phase, the first in months after going through three consecutive Active pulses since April 20th. The ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) index remained neutral. The Daily SOI index was at 5.17. The 30 day average was up to -0.16 and the 90 day average was dead neutral at -0.14.  The SOI index remained effectively neutral. Wind anomalies at the surface and the 850 mb level (approx 1000 ft up) indicated completely neutral conditions, or normal. And no change is forecast through the end of the month. The big push of west winds that had been associated with the Active Phase of the MJO have dissipated, and with it the mechanism that has been pushing warm water from the West to the East Pacific is over, at least for now. Unless another pulse of the Active Phase occurs, water temps might begin to subside off Central America. But at this time we remain disposed to believe we are entering a phase biased towards the Active Phase and less supportive of the Inactive Phase, which supports a manifestation of El Nino and signals the death of La Nina. Latest sea surface temperature data as of 7/6 indicates warmer than normal waters temps are reported over the entire width of the equatorial Pacific and building off Central America pushing up into Baja Mexico and expected to track north from there. This looks very much like El Nino. Looking back in the satellite records (they go back to 1996), there has been no equivalent warming for any year on June 20th other than the record setting El Nino of 1997. We are about 6 weeks behind that one on the development timeline (i.e. it was were we are now on May 10th). So if things proceed at the current rate, we are moving towards El Nino. But it remains too early to declare that for a fact just yet. Below the surface on the equator a steady flow of slightly warmer than normal subsurface water was tracking from the West Pacific over the dateline and then breaking the surface near Central America with warmer water starting to pool up there. It appears that previous episodes of the Active Phase have primed the warm water pump, and are now pushing warmer than normal subsurface water eastward with more building up behind, and feeding a slightly warm regime in the equatorial Eastern Pacific. This is very good news. In fact, increased warming can be seen around and east of the Galapagos Islands to near 2 deg C above normal. A Westerly Wind Burst that developed just west of the dateline on 6/18, with reinforcing west winds south of Hawaii on 6/22 has set up another Kelvin wave and more warm water moving east. It is 4 deg C above normal and positioned under the equator southeast of Cabo San Lucas Mexico, bound for Central America. More heating to erupt as it hits the coast there. At this point local La Nina conditions off California are long gone though high pressure is starting to rebuild resulting in modest upwhelling, and water temps have dropped back down some, but still above normal. This is all a result of the inactive phase of the MJO currently barely in control. In the far West Pacific another westerly Wind Burst appears to be developing (7/6) and pushing to the equator.  It will be interesting to see how long this WWB event holds.  It could result in another Kelvin Wave and more warm waters pushing  to the east. The next 3-4 weeks are critical for the formation of El Nino. If it were to occur, one would expect another decent pulse of the Active Phase of the MJO to take root towards the end of the month, pushing out into the West Pacific. At this time, no such an occurrence is modeled. But it sometimes takes the models a week or so to catch up to reality. So at this point we're in 'wait and see' mode. It's not till the later half of July that we might get a real sense of how the Fall might set up. Still, things continue to look better rather than worse, certainly compared to the last 3 years.   

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours a broader area of 35 kt southwest winds are forecast under New Zealand by Mon (7/13) resulting in 26-29 ft seas there. This remains somewhat interesting, if only because of the complete lack of any other fetch. But overall a real quiet pattern is forecast.  

Details to follow...

****

External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave

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Local Interest

The Kelly Slater Project - A fundraiser is scheduled for Aug 29th at the Cocoa Beach Country Club to help raise funds for both the Kelly Slater Project and the Central Florida Animal Reserve. A Casino night is planned including a silent auction and raffle. Sponsors are also needed. Learn more about these projects at : http://www.thekellyslaterproject.com/

Rebuild Jeff Clark: Jeff Clark the first pioneer of Mavericks, recently underwent hip resurfacing surgery due to severe pain from deterioration of his hip. Needless to say the procedure is very expensive and his insurance only covers tiny portion of the bill. If you're interested in learning about the procedure or would like to donate to help Jeff out, please take a look here: http://www.rebuildjeffclark.blogspot.com/

North California Surf Report Works Again: After an extended downtime we finally got the North California Surf Report working again. Thanks for your patience. See it here: http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/report/ncal.html

Shark Video: Our friend Curt Myers of Powerlines productions shot this footage of 2 great whites munching on a whale carcass off Devils Slide (south of San Francisco) on Thursday. Kind of interesting to watch. Check it here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8I4rZYEZMWQ (Fixed link)

Wave Model Upgrade Status Report: At this point we believe the installation of the new wave models is complete, with no problems being reported, the server stabilizing and the much requested return of the old style hemispheric Surf Height models now operational (again) and running side-by-side along the new ones. We thank you for your patience and input as we went though this process.  Your feedback helps guide our efforts and ultimately results in a better product for everyone.  Now we're off to start providing better menus to some wave model products most of you probably haven't uncovered yet (site specific graph and text forecasts), updateing the wave model FAQs and then upgrading the Weather Models.  

New Wave Model Facts: Click HERE to read more about the new wave models. Important info.

Stormsurf Wave Models Updated: On Friday (2/6) we installed the latest upgrade to our wavemodels. A year in the works, this upgrade essentially is a total re-write of every wave model product we produce. They now take advantage of the new Version 3 of the Wavewatch wavemodel. This version runs at a much higher resolution, specifically 0.0 X 0.5 degrees for the global grib with local products at 0.1667 X 0.1667 degrees, and it uses the hi-res GFS model for wind speeds. And of even more interest, the model now identifies primary swell and windwave variables. As such we now have new model images which displays this data. Also we've included out special 3D topographic land masks into all models. In all it makes for a radical step forward in wave model technology. We'll be upgrading minor components (FAQ, new menu pages etc) for a few weeks to come, but all the basics are available for your use now. Check it out here: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_wam.html

Story About Stormsurf: The folks at SurfPulse (and specifically author Mike Wallace) have written up a really nice article about Stormsurf, complete with some good pics. Learn about how we came to be and a little of where we are going. Check it out here: http://www.surfpulse.com/2009/01/visceral-surf-forecasting-with-mark-sponsler/

Stormsurf Video: Just for fun - here's a clip about Stormsurf that ran on Bay Area TV a while back. Thought you might enjoy it: http://vimeo.com/2319455

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Need Chiropractic Help? Visit our friends at Darrow Chiropractic. Not only will Dr. Darrow fix you up, he might give you some big wave surfing tips too! See more here: http://www.darrowchiropractic.com/

Stormsurf Google Gadget - Want Stormsurf content on your Google Homepage? It's simple and free. If you have Google set as your default Internet Explorer Homepage, just click the link below and a buoy forecast will be added to your Google homepage. Defaults to Half Moon Bay CA. If you want to select a different location, just click on the word 'edit', and a list of alternate available locations appears. Pick the one of your choice. Content updates 4 times daily. A great way to see what waves are coming your way!
http://www.google.com/ig/add?moduleurl=http://www.stormsurf.com/gadget/stormsurf .xml

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