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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: November 5, 2009 9:40 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
Swell Potential Rating = 4.0 - California & 3.8 - Hawaii
Using the 'Winter' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)
Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    
Issued for Week of Monday 11/2 thru Sun 11/8
Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Storm #2 Forms in the Northern Gulf of Alaska
A Weaker Gale to Follow - Then Calmer Days Ahead

 

New Swell Classification Guidelines (Winter)

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead). Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft) Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft). Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs. Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
On Thursday (11/5) North and Central California was getting a mix of local windswell and new small swell from the Western Gulf at chest high or so with southeast winds almost trying to glass it off early. Southern California was effectively flat with light northwest winds adding some texture on the oceans surface. Maybe some thigh high sets down south at best. Hawaii's North Shore was getting the tail end of northerly swell from a gale that was north of the Islands in the head high range with some wind lump intermixed. The East Shore was also getting this northerly swell at waist to chest high at exposed breaks with northeast winds and chopped. The South Shore was getting the start of some nice southern hemi swell with waves to shoulder high at top spots on the sets and clean.  

The forecast for North and Central CA is for real larger Swell #2, the product of a storm currently tracking through the Gulf of Alaska to arrive over the weekend, but to be a bit raw and ragged. Find a protected break. Waves triple overhead and bigger at exposed breaks. Swell to fade through early next week. Southern California is to see some portion of Gulf Swell #2 for the weekend too, but heavily shadowed by the Channel Islands. Waves 2-3 ft overhead, then fading early next week.  The North Shore of Hawaii is to see a portion of sideband energy from Storm #2 too, with waves maybe 2 ft overhead on Saturday and dropping fast from there with little left on Sunday.  The South Shore is to continue seeing background southern hemi swell  Friday then slowly heading down over the weekend.

Longterm the MJO is clearly moving into the Inactive Phase with the Active Phase exiting over the Eastern Pacific. The main focus is to be Storm #2 mainly for the US West coast into Tuesday.  But another little gale is forecast for the Northeastern Gulf on Monday generating more 32 ft seas, but only over a small area aimed mostly at the Pacific Northwest.  Perhaps another shot of raw westerly swell for Oregon and Washington then coming from a more northerly angle down into Central CA.    

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
On Thursday (11/5) the North Pacific jetstream was weak and diffuse in the west but was still supporting a decent trough running under the Gulf of Alaska with 170 kts winds and aiding development of a storm there. This trough was on the verge of pushing into the Pacific Northwest. Over the next 72 hrs that trough is to push over and into Oregon and start loosing definition, but not completely out with another weak pocket of 130 kt winds building in the Gulf supporting yet another gale forecast in the Northeast Gulf on Sunday into Monday (11/9). Beyond 72 hours that trough is to push inland over British Columbia on early Tuesday with a high diffuse flow taking over the greater North Pacific offering northing in term of gale or storm production. If anything the jet it is to be gently ridging northeast through the Bering Sea, then slowly starting to settle southward by Friday (11/13) tracking flat east on the 50N latitude, well north of it's previous position. No support for swell producing gale activity indicated. 

At the surface on Thursday (11/5) Storm #2, down to gale status now with only 45 kt northwest, continuing blowing in the Gulf of Alaska (see Storm #2 forecast below). It was nudging up to the Pacific Northwest coast bring inclimate weather and winds there up into British Columbia. A real storm to winter. Otherwise moderate high pressure at 1028 mbs held control of the dateline and almost choking off the North Pacific storm corridor. Over the next 72 hours Storm #2 is to push onshore over Canada while high pressure continues on the dateline at 1032 mbs, almost choking off the North Pacific storm corridor into Sunday (11/8). No other swell producing fetch is forecast.  


Gulf of Alaska Storm #2
On Tuesday PM (11/3) a small fetch of 40-50 kts winds was confirmed at 50N 173W aimed directly down the 306 degree path to NCal.  Seas were on the increase.

On Wednesday AM (11/4) those winds were confirmed at 50-55kts at 150N 160W aimed due east or right up the 306 degree path to Northern CA.  Seas were on the increase.  By the evening 50 kt west northwest winds were confirmed at 49N 152W aimed right down the 308 degree path to NCal with seas building to 32 ft at 48N 158W.   Barely 40 kt winds and 28 ft seas were the south side of the storm in the Northern CA swell window.  Interestingly the Jason-1 satellite passe over the eastern edge of this system and confirmed seas of 36.8 ft over a 15 reading average with one peak reading to 40.7 ft where seas were modeled at 26-28 ft. This strongly suggests there is some longer period energy running well ahead of the eastern edge of the storm bound for British Columbia.

On Thursday AM (11/5)  40-45 kt west to northwest winds continued confirmed at 46N 149W aimed down the 307 degree path to NCal with 35 kt winds in the NCal swell window. 40 ft seas were modeled  at 47N 150W with only 30 ft seas in the NCal swell window. In the evening 45 kt winds are modeled at 53N 145W pushing somewhat down the 319 degree path to NCal (the northern edge of the window) with 40 ft seas forecast at 46N 143W, with 36 ft seas in the NCal swell window at 43N 145W.

On Friday AM (11/6) continued 45 kt westerly fetch is forecast at 50N 145W aimed a bit east of the 319 degree great circle path into NCal.  Seas are forecast at 42 ft at 50N 142W.  In the evening  the storm is to be fading with residual 40 kts winds forecast at 50N 150W on the 310 degree great circle path to NCal.  37 ft seas are forecast at 50N 140W.

 On Sat AM (11/7) this system is to be effectively gone with 36 ft seas from previous fetch up at 50N 140W on the 319 degree path to Central CA..  

Analysis
The storm is just now starting to get wound up, but following amazingly close to what the models have been predicting both in term of strength and position for over 5 days now. Regardless, this system is positioned well north of the main great circle paths in the Central CA and well north of any route into Southern CA.  The main focus of this swell will be from Pt Reyes northward, with most energy (and also weather) pushing into Oregon and Washington. Also only the faintest hint of sideband energy is expected to push into Hawaii.  That said, this is a fairly decent strength system and positioned very close to the US West coast, only 1061-1668 nmiles away from San Francisco. This is likely to ensure large raw swell will be pushing down the coast. But relative to the San Francisco. much of this energy will be shadowed. And even for that energy that does get in, the local nature of the swell will result in a rather raw character to the swell, discounting the effects of locally generated winds.North of there the swell will be exceeding raw and ragged with much intermixed short period windswell upon arrival. Given the quick arrival of this swell once it's life cycle is through, there will be little time to provide the usual level of detail in forecast, so rough order forecasts are provided below. 

Mavericks: This forecast assumes the models are accurate for the remainder of the storms life. Most of this swell will be shadowed. As such only a fraction of the total energy will survive the trip through the shadowed area, resulting in swell of 7-8 ft @ 17-18 secs (12-14 ft Hawaiian with some 15 ft sets) starting Saturday at 3 AM (some 20 sec intervals)with a few bigger sets and continuing through the day with period slowly working down to 16 secs late. Residual are expected to continue from a very northerly direction on Sunday at 7 ft @ 16 secs (11-12 ft Hawaiian) and fading with period 15 secs late.  Swell Direction: 304-318 degrees. 

Northern CA: This forecast assumes the models are accurate for the remainder of the storms life. Expect swell arrival on Saturday early morning with swell building to 11-12 ft @ 17-18 secs (18-21 ft) but far smaller south of Pt Reyes down to Pigeon Point (7-8 ft @ 17 secs - 12-14 ft faces). Swell to continue through the day with period slowly working it's way down to 16 secs late. Residual are expected to continue from a very northerly direction on Sunday at 10 ft @ 16 secs (15-16 ft nd much smaller in the SF Bay Area) and slowly fading.  Swell to be raw and unruly. Swell Direction: 304-318 degrees. 

Southern CA:  Expect swell arrival on Saturday at sunrise and building fast to early morning with swell building to 10-11 ft @ 17-18 secs (17-19 ft) outside the Channel Islands but far smaller neashore at 4.5-5.0 ft @ 17 secs (7.5-8.5 ft faces only at the most exposed breaks and more towards the late afternoon).  Residual are expected to continue from a very northerly direction on Sunday at 9 ft @ 16 secs (13-14 ft) outside the Channel Islands and 4.0-4.5 ft @ 16 secs nearshore (6.5-7.0 ft faces) and fading.  Swell to be pretty raw and unrefined. Swell Direction: 309-315+ degrees. 

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

California Nearshore Forecast
On Thursday (11/5) south winds ahead of the front associated with Storm #2 were impacting the Central CA coast on up in to North CA, with 2400 nmiles of 35 kt northwest winds aimed right at Central CA and stronger winds up into the Pacific Northwest. Copious swell on windswell is headed towards the coast. Southern CA remained protected, just out of reach of this one.  Local winds to die on Friday (11/6) as the front fades and  high pressure builds-in behind.  Then Saturday north wind is to take over at 20 kts off Point Conception and 15 kts up into Central CA, but light north of San Francisco continuing Sunday, perhaps finally relenting on Monday (11/9) for all.  Another dry front is to pass south on Tuesday with strong high pressure behind setting up a north winds event for Wed/Thurs (11/12) of next week. 

 

Tropics
With the MJO moving into the Inactive Phase, net tropical activity is heading down and expected to stay there through 11/20.

No tropical systems of interest are being monitored.

 

 

South Pacific

Overview
At the surface on Thursday (11/5) no swell producing fetch was occurring and none was forecast for the next 72 hours. . 

New Zealand Gale
Previously a weak gale tracked east under New Zealand on Wed-Thurs (10/29) producing a modest sized fetch of 30-35 kt southwest winds aimed well to the northeast generating 27-28 ft sea sat 55S 175E Thurs AM. Limited background swell is possibly for the Hawaiian Islands starting Thursday (10/5) with swell to 1.6 ft @ 16 secs (2.5-3.0 ft faces), continuing into Friday at 2.3 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.5 ft faces) with residuals into Saturday (11/7) at 2.3 ft @ 14 secs (3.0-3.5 ft faces).  Swell Direction: 195-200 degrees.  

Another New Zealand Gale
Another weak gale pushed under New Zealand on Monday AM (11/2) generating 28 ft seas at 55S 170E aimed a bit to the northeast. Fetch faded through the day with 26 ft seas at 55S 174E then dissipating   Limited background swell for Hawaii is possible starting roughly Wednesday (11/11). 

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours the models suggest another small gale is to develop in the Northwestern Gulf of Alaska on Sunday (11/8) with 45-50 kt northwest winds at 48N 145W in the evening, then fading Monday AM (11/9) at 48N 138W targeting the Pacific Northwest, moving onshore in the evening. Possible 35 ft seas to result at 48N 140W on the 315 degree path to North CA Monday AM.  But there remains much variability in the models from run to run, so no specific outcome is predictable yet. 

A calmer pattern is to follow with high pressure moving into the Gulf mid-next week.Maybe a cutoff low to form under it north of Hawaii on Tues/Wed (11/11) generating 35 kt wind and 26 ft seas at 30N 160W, aimed mostly west of the Islands.  Maybe some limited sideband swell to result. 


MJO/ENSO Update (reference): As of Thursday (11/5) the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) was moving into the Inactive Phase, signaling the start of a weaker North Pacific Storm pattern for the next 3 weeks starting on Tues 11/10 and running to 12/1 or a bit more. The ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) index has finally gone positive with the Daily SOI index at 2.22 ending a 29 days solidly-negative run and 40 consecutive days nearly negative/not positive. This has done wonders for the maturation of El Nino and the Equatorial East Pacific warm pool. The 30 day average was falling to -17.08 (likely bottoming out there) and the 90 average was up a shade to -5.28.  The 30 day average has surpassed the lowest point reached during the April 2006 push of that El Nino event, and still heading down.

Wind anomalies at the 850 mb level (approx 5000 ft up) as defined by models indicated light to moderate westerly anomalies fading over the Eastern Equatorial Pacific with mild  to moderate eastern anomalies associated with the Inactive Phase of the MJO continue covering the Northern Indian Ocean over Indonesia pushing east reaching the Philippines and tot eh dateline. This is stronger than earlier forecast. The Active Phase is to continue in the Pacific tracking east through 11/9, dominating the picture reaching to the Eastern Pacific by 11/14  and holding before fading out on 11/24.  A weak version of the Active Phase is modeled to be taking root over the dateline at that time. Net storm actively is likely to be suppressed at least through 11/20 with some possible tropical development kicking off the next Active Phase near 11/22.

Sea Surface Temp anomaly data (11/5) indicates warm anomalies have built yet more, extending the length of the equator from Ecuador to the dateline at 1.5 degs C higher than normal or more. This is a significant change from even the last update on 10/29 which in turn was an upgrade from the previous data. This is very good news. In short, the Kelvin wave that hit  Central America nearly a month ago has manifest itself at the surface in warmer waters across the length of the tropical Pacific, exactly what is required for a legitimate El Nino to develop.  The expanse of the warmer waters continues to build north of the equator, solidifying it's grip up the coast of Mexico and Baja (though still retreated from Southern and Northern CA - the result of a local north wind and high pressure), and extending west almost to Hawaii then southwest to the dateline. A cool trail, the result of upwelling from Super Hurricane Rick, was evident off Central Mainland Mexico to Baja. This overall warmer water signature remains not not anything exceptional, but clearly is a moderate El Nino. In reviewing surface water temp anomalies over the past decade and more, this is in no way similar to the monumental ENSO event of '97/98. But as previously stated, it still surpasses any event since then (over the last 12 years) in terms of water temps and areal coverage and is only building on that position. 

Of interest, the water temp anomaly data provided by NOAA/NESDIS (satellite based) versus the TAO/TRITON buoy array, present different depictations of the same event. The TAO array suggests max heating is occurring on the dateline, with temps easing as one tracks east, while the satellite based data from NOAA presents an analysis of continuous warm waters over the length of the equator from Ecuador to the dateline. The difference is in how the data is collected (buoys at fixed points versus a satellite view of the entire playing field).  We're siding with the satellite view not because it is more favorable, but because we believe it more accurately represents reality.  The buoy arrays strength is in waters temps at depth (i.e. for detecting Kelvin Waves). This is exactly what the array was built to detect. The satellite view cannot do that. Likewise, the satellite has far superior coverage.    

Below the surface on the equator things continue to look excellent, and getting better with each passing day. A steady flow of warmer than normal subsurface water continues tracking from the West Pacific (150 m below the surface) under the dateline and breaking the surface near Central America as it has for months now.  Surface water temperatures have jumped up off Central America as a result of the last Kelvin wave dispersed there, feeding the developing warm water pool and fueling El Nino. A core of 2 deg warmer than normal water that first appeared under the dateline on 9/17 moved east to 175W by 9/22 and 172W on 9/24, then built to 3 degrees above normal (9/29) and continued growing as of 10/18 at 160W.  Data on 10/20 depicted intensification with temps pushing solidly 4 degrees C above normal. And as of 10/22 that anomaly looked to be broaching the 5 degree mark and was holding if not expanding on 10/25. On 10/26 it was confirmed at 5 degrees above normal and racing east, much faster than previous Kelvin Waves and located at 145W , and then 135W on 10/29 and 125W on 10/31 with 4 degree anomalies extending the whole was back to the dateline. On 11/3 the Kelvin Wave built yet more, with temps to 6 degrees above normal at 130W with the leading edge at 125W, holding on 11/5. This is a very solid Kelvin Wave indeed, and large in areal coverage too extending 3600 nmiles miles long. This wave is the result of a prolonged persistent  westerly surface wind flow that had been in-place west of the dateline from 9/8 and  continued into 11/5. It is expected to reach the coast of Ecuador possibly late November or earlier. This should have a significant positive impact enhancing the existing warm pool when it hits Central America.  

On 10/1 a solid patch of westward winds were depicted in-control of the West Pacific with strong west anomalies extending to almost the dateline. This had been in-play since 9/27 and was associated with tropical systems Parma and Melor. A full on Westerly Wind Burst was in effect. As of 10/3 fully blowing west winds were subsiding, though westerly anomalies continued reaching to the dateline.  And by 10/6 just light west winds were in effect west of the dateline.  But then again on 10/7 another group of fully blowing west winds were depicted extending all the way to the dateline, with decent force too. Anomalies were in full effect to the dateline and beyond to the east. On 10/11 light west winds were still in effect to the dateline with solid anomalies over the dateline and to a point south of Hawaii. And by 10/13 a light west flow was in effect with full west anomalies still in place to the dateline and east to about Hawaii fading some into 10/20 but still light west winds were west of the dateline and anomalies east of there. Then on 1021 another batch of fully blowing west winds were in-play with solid anomalies to 160W (south of Hawaii) and almost to 140W, making further eastward progress than anything so far this El Nino event. By 10/24 that pattern continued if not intensified with fully blowing west winds to the dateline a solid anomalies to 140W and maybe even more. And on 10/26 the pattern continued, with anomalies pushing even further eastward to near 130W. On 10/29 full blowing west winds and anomalies continued as documented above.  This put anomalies over almost the entire equatorial Pacific.  Impressive. And on 10/31 the pattern continued with weak west winds in the west and anomalies all the way to 110W, basically covering the entire equatorial Pacific Ocean. finally on 11/2 the westward blowing winds died on the far West Pacific as the Inactive Phased took control there. But anomalous west winds continued from the dateline almost the whole way into Ecuador through 11/5. but this is likely the end of this event. This suggest a significant eastward propagation of warm water is in-play and remains very good news for the development of El Nino. Again, this is classic El Nino symptoms. This is the first such event for this El Nino. For almost 2 months (since 9/8) a continuous moderate westerly anomaly has been in-play from the west up to the dateline. These westerly anomalies started with Typhoon Dujuan and continued with Choi-Wan gently feeding the subsurface warm water flow. And then with Parma, Melor and Nepartak, that flow was enhanced.  At this time all these anomalies appear to be consolidating the resulting warm waters into one strong Kelvin Wave, the one currently pushing east from the dateline (see above). This one is expected to reinforce if not deepen the warm anomalies on the surface over the equator.  

At this time we are saying this developing El Nino will survive with effects continuing in the atmosphere until at least the late Spring of next year. All data suggests this will not be a strong El Nino, more likely a moderate one. NOAA's last update (11/5) forecasts the same outcome, though hints at some uncertainty.  In short, all the best models aren;t exactly sure how this is going to play out. Regardless a solid accumulation of warm water in the equatorial East Pacific is evidence in-favor of continued development. As long as there continues to be WWB's (as there obviously is), then warm water will be migrating east, and the warm water pattern will hold if not build, and the atmosphere above it will respond in-kind to the change (towards El Nino). At this point there is no evidence to suggest this El Nino will stall or dissipate. The only remaining question is whether it will hold, or grow. And current data indicates that the warm pool will hold if not slowly build. And historically it is already larger and strong than any other in the past 12 years. 

The current El Nino is gaining strength, with a 2 degree water temp anomaly in the tropical East Pacific the likely outcome. Coverage is pretty solid for this event, but the lack of really high water temp anomalies will likely limit it's strength. Strong El Ninos bring lot's of bad weather to the US West Coast, along with the potential for storm and swell enhancement. A moderate El Nino provides storm and swell enhancement, a gentle but steady push/momentum in-favor of storm development rather than the manic frenzy of a strong El Nino, but without all the weather associated with a strong event. So in many ways a moderate El Nino is more favorable from a surf perspective. As of right now things remain better than anything the Pacific has seen in the past 12 years regarding anomalous sea surface temperatures, besting anything since the big El Nino of 1997. That is very good news.  But the lack of anomalous water temps exceeding 3 degrees and an unremarkable SOI suggests a modest El Nino at best. Still, it should be enough to provide storm enhancement, and a better than average winter surf season for the North Pacific, and still likely better than anything in the past 10 years. Better yet, if it's not too strong (as this event appears to be) perhaps it will not degrade into La Nina the year after (which typically happens after stronger El Ninos), but hold in some mild El Nino like state for several years in a row. This would be an even better outcome.   

See more details in the new  El Nino update.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours the models suggest maybe a small gale forming under New Zealand on Sunday AM (11/8) producing 45 kt southwest winds aimed well at Hawaii from 55S 173E and tracking northeast while fading resulting in up to a tiny area of 30 ft seas at 50S 178E in the evening.  Hawaii to possibly see some more background southern hemi swell if this comes to pass. Yet another similar gale is forecast under New Zealand on Thurs (11/12), but that is wild speculation at this early date.  

Details to follow...

****

External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave

Add a STORMSURF Buoy Forecast to your Google Homepage. Click Here: Add to Google
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MAVERICKSSURF MAVFILM MAVSURFER SURFPULSE Inside Mavericks Randy Cone Surfboards

Local Interest

Interview With Stormsurf:  The crew at SurfScience.com worked with Stormsurf on a feature about why surfers should be able to read wave charts themselves. They are firm believers that a little learning can go a long way to help your surfing.  This is a great article to help convince your friends that they can benefit from being able to read the data themsleves rather than just relying on the forecasts of others.  See the full thing here:  Create Your Own Surf Forecast with Stormsurf

Mavericks - Everest of the Sea & Longboard Vineyards: Come late October Sonoma County will not only welcome a new crop of world class wines, but the award winning photography of some of Action Sports best lensmen. “ Mavericks – Everest of the Seas” comes alive again just in time to set the stage for another epic Big Wave Season. Mix two of Northern California's finest institutions – big wave surfing and the wine country – and you have what promises to be an amazing weekend at the Longboard Vineyards Tasting Room in Healdsburg
October 23 – 25.

Relive heroic battles between man and wave as seen through the eyes of the cutting-edge photojournalists who risk life and limb to document the wave's intense man-against-the-sea drama and obsessive lifestyle of Maverick's elite riders. Oded Shakked, a longtime surfer who founded Longboard Vineyards, will be unveiling his latest release, The Peter Mel/Mavericks Cabernet Sauvignon. This signature wine will be blended by not only Shakked but guest vintner, Peter Mel. Mel, one of the most respected names in Big Wave Surfing is known as perhaps the most skillful surfer ever to ride Mavericks. The famed spot off the Half Moon Bay. In October of 1998 he was whipped into to what is now considered the biggest wave ever ridden… Mel along with the featured photographers, surfboard shapers and wine makers will be on hand for the Friday night reception. The reception will begin at 5pm and run until roughly 9pm.

Longboard Vineyard has always had a soft spot for surfers. It's a place where you can hangout at a redwood-surfboard bar, or sample one
of its award winning wines while kicking back on a comfortable sofa watching surf movies. For this harvest weekend event Shakked has
enlisted “Mavericks: Everest of the Seas,” the heralded collection of Mavericks surf photography from Frank Quirarte, Doug Acton, Seth
Migdail and Ed Grant.

“Everest of the Seas” first made its debut recently at the Coastal Arts League Gallery in Half Moon Bay, drawing large crowds and an
enthusiastic response. It just finished a one-month highly successful run at San Francisco's world class Museum and Gallery, SFMOMA.“Everyone who sees the exhibit is just blown away,” said Grant, the curator of the Coastal Arts League Gallery. “Both surfers and non-surfers can't help but get caught up in the energy and stoke that surrounds Maverick's, the surfers and photographers who put it on the
line every time they go out there.”

The event also represents a high point in the career of Oded Shakked, who was born in Israel and grew up near a beach just north of Tel
Aviv. Immersed in surfing from the start, he made several trips around Europe's Atlantic coast while discovering, to his delight, that “it
was easier, cheaper and safer to drink good red wine than bottled water.” His twin loves of surfing and wine brought him to California,
where he studied winemaking at UC Davis and became enamored with the people, climate and rich soil of Sonoma County. He founded Longboard Vineyards with the motto “Wine, waves and soul,” making it a highly unique fixture in wine country.

The October 23-25 weekend will also feature the sale of surfboards and memorabilia, along with Acton's acclaimed book, “Inside Maverick's.”
Admission is free. Opening reception sponsored by Maverick Events and Longboard Vineyards

The Kelly Slater Project - A fundraiser is scheduled for Aug 29th at the Cocoa Beach Country Club to help raise funds for both the Kelly Slater Project and the Central Florida Animal Reserve. A Casino night is planned including a silent auction and raffle. Sponsors are also needed. Learn more about these projects at : http://www.thekellyslaterproject.com/

Rebuild Jeff Clark: Jeff Clark the first pioneer of Mavericks, recently underwent hip resurfacing surgery due to severe pain from deterioration of his hip. Needless to say the procedure is very expensive and his insurance only covers tiny portion of the bill. If you're interested in learning about the procedure or would like to donate to help Jeff out, please take a look here: http://www.rebuildjeffclark.blogspot.com/

North California Surf Report Works Again: After an extended downtime we finally got the North California Surf Report working again. Thanks for your patience. See it here: http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/report/ncal.html

Shark Video: Our friend Curt Myers of Powerlines productions shot this footage of 2 great whites munching on a whale carcass off Devils Slide (south of San Francisco) on Thursday. Kind of interesting to watch. Check it here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8I4rZYEZMWQ (Fixed link)

Wave Model Upgrade Status Report: At this point we believe the installation of the new wave models is complete, with no problems being reported, the server stabilizing and the much requested return of the old style hemispheric Surf Height models now operational (again) and running side-by-side along the new ones. We thank you for your patience and input as we went though this process.  Your feedback helps guide our efforts and ultimately results in a better product for everyone.  Now we're off to start providing better menus to some wave model products most of you probably haven't uncovered yet (site specific graph and text forecasts), updateing the wave model FAQs and then upgrading the Weather Models.  

New Wave Model Facts: Click HERE to read more about the new wave models. Important info.

Stormsurf Wave Models Updated: On Friday (2/6) we installed the latest upgrade to our wavemodels. A year in the works, this upgrade essentially is a total re-write of every wave model product we produce. They now take advantage of the new Version 3 of the Wavewatch wavemodel. This version runs at a much higher resolution, specifically 0.0 X 0.5 degrees for the global grib with local products at 0.1667 X 0.1667 degrees, and it uses the hi-res GFS model for wind speeds. And of even more interest, the model now identifies primary swell and windwave variables. As such we now have new model images which displays this data. Also we've included out special 3D topographic land masks into all models. In all it makes for a radical step forward in wave model technology. We'll be upgrading minor components (FAQ, new menu pages etc) for a few weeks to come, but all the basics are available for your use now. Check it out here: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_wam.html

Story About Stormsurf: The folks at SurfPulse (and specifically author Mike Wallace) have written up a really nice article about Stormsurf, complete with some good pics. Learn about how we came to be and a little of where we are going. Check it out here: http://www.surfpulse.com/2009/01/visceral-surf-forecasting-with-mark-sponsler/

Stormsurf Video: Just for fun - here's a clip about Stormsurf that ran on Bay Area TV a while back. Thought you might enjoy it: http://vimeo.com/2319455

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Need Chiropractic Help? Visit our friends at Darrow Chiropractic. Not only will Dr. Darrow fix you up, he might give you some big wave surfing tips too! See more here: http://www.darrowchiropractic.com/

Stormsurf Google Gadget - Want Stormsurf content on your Google Homepage? It's simple and free. If you have Google set as your default Internet Explorer Homepage, just click the link below and a buoy forecast will be added to your Google homepage. Defaults to Half Moon Bay CA. If you want to select a different location, just click on the word 'edit', and a list of alternate available locations appears. Pick the one of your choice. Content updates 4 times daily. A great way to see what waves are coming your way!
http://www.google.com/ig/add?moduleurl=http://www.stormsurf.com/gadget/stormsurf .xml

Free Stormsurf Stickers - Get your free stickers! - More details Here

Read all the latest news and happenings on our News Page here

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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